Folie 1 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Potentials for Renewables in Europe
Wolfram Krewitt
DLRInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics
Systems Analysis and Technology AssessmentStuttgart
eufores7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting
Berlin 5-6, 2007
Folie 2 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Solar resources in Europe
Global horizontal irradiation, 1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00
W/m²
Folie 3 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
PV electricity generation potential
MWh/km²
1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00
actual demand:345 GWh
potential generation:164 GWh
Folie 4 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Renewable energy technical potentials in Europe
EJ/y
0
50
100
150
200
250
Geothermal heat
Solar heating
Biomass energy crops
Biomass residues
Geothermal (el)
Ocean (el)
Wind (el)
Hydro (el)
Solar PV (el)
Solar CSP (el)
RESpotentials
gross primary energy consumptionEU-25 in 2005 Source: Ecofys, DLR
Folie 5 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Renewable energy deployment potentials
target oriented RES expansion 2°C target (climate protection) security of supply
economic constraints- cost reduction of RES-technologies by running through the
learning curve- increase in fossil fuel prices and CO2-costs most RES-technologies gain competitiveness within the next
15 years
structural constraints- current supply structure, power plant stock turnover, building
up of new industrial production capacity
opportunities
Folie 6 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
RES deployment potentials in the electricity sector
Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency
Import RES
Ocean Energy
Solar Thermal
PV
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
CHP fossil
Gas&oil
Coal
Nuclear
TW
h/a
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency
Import RES
Ocean Energy
Solar Thermal
PV
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
CHP fossil
Gas&oil
Coal
Nuclear
TW
h/a
80% RES electricity
Folie 7 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
RES deployment potentials – primary energy
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
100.000
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency
Ocean energy
Geothermal
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Natural gas
Crude oil
Coal
Lignite
Nuclear
PJ/
a
45% energy savings compared to ‘business-as-usual’
50% renewables
Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe
Folie 8 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Costs of electricity supply
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2°C Scenario - efficiency measures2°C Scenario - electricity generationReference - electricity generation
Bil
lio
n €
/a
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
‘wisdom of market’?
Folie 9 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Costs of electricity supply
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2°C Scenario - efficiency measures2°C Scenario - electricity generationReference - electricity generation
Bil
lio
n €
/a
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
policy incentives&
wisdom of market!
Folie 10 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
Renewable energy perspectives
renewable energy potentials in Europe significantly exceed the energy demand
rapid RES deployment ensures compliance with climate protection targets
renewable energies hedge against increasing energy prices
investment in renewable energy technologies offers options for industrial development and employment
societal and structural innovation is required to facilitate the transformation process
feed-in-tariffs proved to be the most successful support instrument