Population growth in regional AustraliaA presentation to the Regionalism 2.0 conference, Wodonga, April
2016
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Population growth in Regional Australia
• There are 2 ways any place can grow:
• Natural increase (more births than deaths).• Net migration inflow (more people moving in than
moving out)• For regional centres, it’s worth subdividing this further into 4
categories• Natural increase (more births than deaths)• Drawing in population from surrounding areas (sponge city)• Attracting migrants from overseas• Attracting migrants from other regions and metropolitan Australia.
• This presentation looks at the current state of play with population growth in regional Australia, and some centres which are growing or declining in each of these 4 ways.
How much growth is there in regional Australia?
National population and dwelling growth
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Building ApprovalsPopulation Growth
Share of population – 2015 by state/territory
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territor-ies, 2015
Greater Capital City Rest of State
Relative share of growth by part of state – 2010-2015
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Growth in population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territories, 2010-2015
Greater Capital City Rest of State
Mismatch of population to population growth, regional parts of states, 2010-2015
State
Regional part of state share of
growth
Mismatch to share of
population
NSW 22.8% -12.6%
Vic 11.1% -12.6%
Qld 46.4% -5.2%
SA 10.7% -11.7%
WA 13.8% -7.5%
Tas 18.8% -38.4%
NT 0.7% -41.1%
ACT 0.0% 0.0%
Australia 22.1% -11.2%
Where is the growth occurring?
Migration between metropolitan and regional Australia – 2013/14
Greater S
ydney
Rest of N
SW
Greater M
elbourne
Rest of V
ic.
Greater B
risban
e
Rest of Q
ld
Greater A
delaide
Rest of S
A
Greater P
erth
Rest of W
A
Greater H
obart
Rest of T
as.
Greater D
arwin
Rest of N
T
Australian
Capita
l Terr
itory
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Components of population growth by part of state, 2013-14
Natural increase Overseas migration Inter-regional migration
Migration between metropolitan and regional Australia – 2014/15 financial year
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
Fastest growing regional centres..
Australia’s largest centres, 2015Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15
Centre Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 % growth 2014-15
Sydney 4,526,479 77,565 1.7
Melbourne 4,353,514 86,796 2.0
Brisbane 2,209,453 33,702 1.5
Perth 1,958,912 26,132 1.4
Adelaide 1,288,681 11,970 0.9
Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 10,798 1.8
Newcastle – Maitland 434,454 3,964 0.9
Canberra – Queanbeyan 424,666 2,825 0.7
Central Coast (NSW) 351,081 2,202 0.7
Sunshine Coast 302,122 4,864 1.6
Wollongong 292,388 3,333 1.2
Hobart 209,254 1,594 0.8
Geelong 187,417 3,236 1.8
Townsville 180,333 1,755 1.0
Cairns 147,777 1,359 0.9
Darwin 123,396 1,974 1.6
Toowoomba 114,622 1,044 0.9
Ballarat 99,841 1,332 1.4
Bendigo 92,888 1,122 1.2
Albury - Wodonga 88,949 1,153 1.3
Fastest growth in regional LGAs, 2010-2015Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15
LGA Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015 % growth 5 years
Capel WA 17,316 3,124 22.0
Chittering WA 5,301 907 20.6
Weipa QLD 3,966 629 18.8
Boddington WA 2,537 399 18.7
Busselton WA 36,335 5,.671 18.5
Harvey WA 27,288 4,058 17.5
Gladstone QLD 67,464 9,767 16.9
Karratha WA 26,228 3,600 15.9
Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 1,856 15.5
Ashburton WA 10,951 1,441 15.2
Gingin WA 5,450 664 13.9
Dardanup WA 14,233 1,702 13.6
Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 323 13.5
Livingstone QLD 37,001 4,095 12.4
Broome WA 17,308 1,892 12.3
Denmark WA 5,886 638 12.2
Surf Coast VIC 28,941 3,080 11.9
Maitland NSW 76,607 8,046 11.7
Hope Vale QLD 1,125 114 11.3
Baw Baw VIC 46,638 4,541 10.8
Fastest growth in regional LGAs, 2014-15 onlySource: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15LGA Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 only
Kondinin WA 1,055 4.8%
Cook QLD 4,388 3.0%
Hope Vale QLD 1,125 2.9%
Weipa QLD 3,966 2.9%
Busselton WA 36,355 2.8%
Palerang NSW 15,897 2.6%
Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 2.5%
Harvey WA 27,288 2.5%
Capel WA 17,316 2.2%
Gladstone QLD 67,464 2.1%
Napranum QLD 962 2.1%
Palm Island QLD 2,671 2.1%
Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 2.1%
Gloucester NSW 5,160 2.0%
Maitland NSW 76,607 2.0%
Greater Geelong VIC 229,420 2.0%
Chittering WA 5,301 2.0%
Roper Gulf NT 7,436 2.0%
Byron NSW 32,723 1.9%
Roxby Downs SA 5,078 1.9%
Fastest growth in centres Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15
Centre Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015
Torquay 18,227 23.6%
Busselton 36,285 18.5%
Karratha 19,235 18.3%
Gladstone – Tannum Sands 49,248 17.2%
Bunbury 75,628 14.5%
Emerald 15,225 14.5%
Warragul - Drouin 33,386 14.2%
Broome 14,776 13.2%
Yeppoon 18,543 12.7%
Highfields 18,771 12.5%
Ocean Grove – Point Lonsdale 25,230 12.0%
Cessnock 22,596 11.1%
Townsville 180,333 9.9%
Drysdale – Clifton Springs 12,882 9.8%
Geraldton 39,825 9.6%
Mackay 85,455 9.5%
Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 9.4%
Sunshine Coast 302,122 9.0%
Ballarat 99,841 9.0%
Growing your population by overseas migration
Historical migration - national
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Annual net migration
Overseas migration…Capital Cities vs Regional
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
Australia
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
11.4%
7.2%
39.3%
7.6%
12.2%
42.7%
27.6%
0.0%
15.8%
Recent overseas arrivals, 2006-2011, Capital City/Balance of State
Capital City Rest of State
Largest overseas migration into regional cities from 2012 to 2015 (calendar years)
LGA Migration (4 years)
Main countries % Humanitarian
Gold Coast 10,110 UK, China, India, Japan, South Africa 3%
Sunshine Coast 4,205 UK, India, South Africa 2%
Cairns 3,643 India, UK, Philippines 12%Wollongong 3,577 China, India, Syria, Iraq 26%Geelong 3,345 India, Afghanistan, Iran 24%
Townsville 2,739 India, UK, Philippines, Somalia, DR Congo 17%
Newcastle 2,631 India, China, UK, Afghanistan, USA 15%
Toowoomba 2,471 India, Philippines, Afghanistan, DR Congo 29%
Mackay 1,825 Philippines, India 1%Rockhampton 1,475 Philippines, India, Vietnam, Brazil 9%
Shepparton 1,463 Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iraq 27%
Labour force status of recently arrived migrants in regional areas
Employed
Unemployed
Not in the labour force
Not stated
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Total population Migrants in 2006-2011
Occupations of recently arrived migrants in regional areas
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and Trades Workers
Community and Personal Service Workers
Clerical and Administrative Workers
Sales Workers
Machinery Operators and Drivers
Labourers
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Total population Migrants in 2006-2011
Migrants keep the population young, humanitarian migrants more likely to be children.
0-5 6-11 12-15 16-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Age of Migrants by Visa Stream - 2006-2015
Skilled Family Humanitarian
Source: Department of Immigration, Settlement reporting
Sponge cities
Sponge cities
Sponge city seems to be a term which has gone out of fashion.
I still like it.
It effectively describes a place, usually a regional capital, which draws population growth from declines in population in smaller centres and rural areas in the surrounding region.
This is not to say they aren’t growing through other migration as well.
Some examples of Australian centres which have a strong element of growth in the form of a sponge city.
Toowoomba, Qld
Albany, WA
Population from metropolitan Australia
Population movement from metro to regional Australia
Some regional centres are effective at attracting population from metropolitan areas in net terms.
These tend to be a mixture of
• Young families seeking to escape the city.• Retirees• Young people attending university.
Most examples are in New South Wales. This is because there is a strong driver out from Sydney due to extreme house prices, as we saw on the state migration chart.
Recent internal migration data are now available from the ABS, though this is only at the broad region (SA4) level. It can give an indication of where metropolitan populations are going, however.
Region level – top migration gain from Sydney – 2011-12 to 2014-15
Region Net migration gain from Sydney over 4 years
Central Coast NSW* 14,305
Southern Highlands/Shoalhaven NSW
6,486
Gold Coast 5,160
Mid-North Coast 5,152
Illawarra 5,107
Central West 4,552
Hunter Valley (ex. Newcastle) 3,610
Richmond-Tweed 3,075
* Note that some ABS collections consider Central Coast to be part of Greater Sydney
Region level – top migration gain from Melbourne – 2011-12 to 2014-15
Region Net migration gain from Melbourne over 3 years
Geelong 6,116
Latrobe – West Gippsland 5,943
Ballarat 3,230
Bendigo 2,871
Hume North East Vic 2,684
Sunshine Coast 540
Losses of population from regional areas to metropolitanMost losses are in the 18-24 age range, even where an area is growing in other age groups.
Losses of population from regional areas to metropolitanBut some areas have turned this around. Large universities and strong industries employing young people help a lot.
A word on housing prices…
One big advantage that many regional cities have is housing prices.
The media focusses almost exclusively on capital city housing prices, particularly Sydney and Melbourne.
Many regional cities still have quite affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes.Entry level – 1st quartile housing price
Houses Units
Sydney $598,094 $497,602
Regional NSW $281,393 $239,422
Melbourne $424,802 $363,538
Regional Vic $235,515 $196,333
Many large regional cities still have relatively affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes
Tamworth example Tamworth Regional Council Greater Sydney
Median Annual income for workers (2011 Census) $40,560 $50,752
Median Annual income for workers (AWE adjusted 2015) $47,455.20 $59,379.84
Entry level (1st quartile) house price (2015) $244,921 $598,094
Median house price (2015) $311,379 $865,140
Multiple of income - entry level
5.2
10.1
Multiple of income - median
6.6 14.6
Which regional centres are expected to grow in future?
What does the future hold?
.id population forecastForecast growth in key regional centres
Centre Population 2016 Population 2036 20 year % changeNewcastle (LGA) 161,043 189,432 17.6%
Wollongong (LGA) 208,565 243,156 16.6%
Bathurst 42,354 52,851 24.8%
Orange 41,948 50,497 20.4%
Tamworth 61,036 71,166 16.6%
Wagga Wagga 64,678 80,410 24.2%
Albury-Wodonga 92,552 124,472 34.5%
Port Macquarie 79,144 102,926 30.1%
Queanbeyan 41,924 57,600 37.4%
Dubbo 41,601 45,143 8.5%
.id population forecastForecast growth in key regional centres
Centre Population 2016 Population 2036
20 year % change
Geelong 234,999 320,791 36.5%
Ballarat 104,355 145,197 39.1%
Bendigo 112,853 156,151 38.4%
Latrobe Valley 75,825 91,103 20.1%
Shepparton 66,222 83,782 26.5%
Warrnambool 34,713 46,762 34.7%
Mildura 53,568 61,301 14.4%
Wangaratta 27,937 31,806 13.8%
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