PepsiCo: Sustainable Value Creation
Indra NooyiChairman and Chief Executive Officer
Hugh JohnstonChief Financial Officer
February 13, 2014
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Note: This presentation should be viewed in conjunction with PepsiCo’s Q4 2013 and full year earnings call
Safe Harbor Statement
• Statements in this communication that are “forward-looking statements,” including our 2014 guidance, are based on currently available information, operating plans and projections about future events and trends. Terminology such “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “drive,” “estimate,” “expect,” “expressed confidence,” “forecast,” “future,” “goals,” “guidance,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “position,” “potential,” “project,” “ seek,” “should,” “strategy,” “target,” “will” or similar statements or variations of such terms are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain such terms. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: changes in demand for PepsiCo’s products, as a result of changes in consumer preferences or otherwise; changes in the legal and regulatory environment; imposition of new taxes, disagreements with tax authorities or additional tax liabilities; PepsiCo’s ability to compete effectively; PepsiCo’s ability to grow its business in emerging and developing markets or unstable political conditions, civil unrest or other developments and risks in the markets where PepsiCo’s products are sold; unfavorable economic conditions in the countries in which PepsiCo operates; increased costs, disruption of supply or shortages of raw materials and other supplies; failure to realize anticipated benefits from PepsiCo’s productivity initiatives or global operating model; disruption of PepsiCo’s supply chain; damage to PepsiCo’s reputation; failure to successfully complete or integrate acquisitions and joint ventures into PepsiCo’s existing operations or to complete or manage divestitures or refranchisings; PepsiCo’s ability to hire or retain key employees or a highly skilled and diverse workforce; trade consolidation or the loss of any key customer; any downgrade or potential downgrade of PepsiCo’s credit ratings; PepsiCo’s ability to protect its information systems against a cybersecurity incident; PepsiCo’s ability to build and sustain proper information technology infrastructure, successfully implement its ongoing business transformation initiative or outsource certain functions effectively; fluctuations in exchange rates; climate change, or legal, regulatory or market measures to address climate change; failure to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements or strikes or work stoppages; any infringement of or challenge to PepsiCo’s intellectual property rights; potential liabilities and costs from litigation or legal proceedings; and other factors that may adversely affect the price of PepsiCo’s common stock and financial performance.
• For additional information on these and other factors that could cause PepsiCo’s actual results to materially differ from those set forth herein, please see PepsiCo’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. PepsiCo undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Non-GAAP Information• Please refer to the “Investors” section of PepsiCo’s web site at www.pepsico.com under the heading “Events & Presentations” to find disclosure and a reconciliation
of any non-GAAP financial measures contained herein.
Glossary• Please refer to the Glossary and attachments to our February 13, 2014 earnings release for the definitions of core, constant currency, organic, free cash flow and certain other
terms used herein.
Safe Harbor Statement of Terms & Non-GAAP Information
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Summary
• Transformed PepsiCo
• We Delivered in 2013
• The PepsiCo Portfolio Works: Products and Geographies
• Extending $1 Billion Annual Productivity Savings Target to 2019
• 2014 Guidance In Line with Long-Term Targets
• Increasing Cash Returns with Substantially Stepped Up Dividend and Share Repurchase
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• Invested to increase D&E market participation
• Increased permissibility of FFY products / Stepped up focus on GFY products
• Created “Growth Ventures” to pursue premium opportunity
• Stepped up investment in R&D, digital capability,food safety and quality
• Using scale of our business to drive retail growth• Leveraging DSD in traditional trade
• Enhanced brand strength, revenue management skillsfor pricing power
• Sustainability designed into everything we do
• Completely revamped talent analytics / assignment / development processes
• Selectively brought in key talent
We Aggressively Changed to Adapt to the New World
Eight Macro Trends How We Transformed to Thrive
8. The Talent Conundrum
7. Growing Environmental Consciousness
1. Global Growth Shifting To D&E Markets
2. Consumer Base Changing3. Increasing Preoccupation With Health & Wellness
4. Technology Deployment And Disruption Driving Business Model Changes
5. Retail Environment Evolving
6. Commodity Inflation And Volatility A Reality
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Reoriented Foundational Elements of PepsiCo
From
Business
To
Geography
Culture
Fun-for-You
Decentralized
Developed market strength
Balanced portfolio including Better-for-You
and Good-for-You
Local Excellence and Global Scale
Balanced global footprint
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2013: Strong Results in Challenging Environment
Mid-Single-Digit Organic Revenue Growth
Gross and Operating Margin Improvement
Strong Cash Flow
NAB Responsibly Managed
FLNA Consistent, Solid Performance
Other Developed Markets Strengthening
Developing & Emerging Markets Continue Rapid GrowthNote: All figures are for the year 2013. Certain of the above items represent non-GAAP financial measures that exclude certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the “Investors-Events and Presentations” section at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and reconciliation of the above non-GAAP financial measures.
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Target Result
MSD Organic Revenue Growth 4% Core Operating Margin Improvement +30-50bps +40 bps Productivity $900 million >$900 million Core Constant Currency EPS Growth +7% +9% Free Cash Flow (ex-items) of $7 billion $8.2 billion Net Capital Expenditures <5% of Net Revenue 4% Core Net ROIC Improvement of ~50bps +110bps Cash Returns to Shareholders $6.4 billion $6.4 billion
2013: Delivered on Our Financial TargetsDespite Headwinds and a Volatile / Uncertain World
Met ExceededNote: All figures are for the year 2013. 2013 core constant currency EPS growth is from PepsiCo’s fiscal 2012 core EPS of $4.10. Certain of the above items represent non-GAAP financial measures that exclude certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the “Investors-Events and Presentations” section at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and reconciliation of the above non-GAAP financial measures.
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2013: Strengthened the Business Through Investment
Innovation Success
Six New Products On Track to Achieve $100 Million
Each in Annual Retail Sales
A&M as a % of Net Revenue R&D in US$ Million
5.25.7 5.9
2011 2012 2013
525 552665
2011 2012 2013
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Summary
• Transformed PepsiCo
• We Delivered in 2013
• The PepsiCo Portfolio Works: Products and Geographies
• Extending $1 Billion Annual Productivity Savings Target to 2019
• 2014 Guidance In Line with Long-Term Targets
• Increasing Cash Returns with Substantially Stepped Up Dividend and Share Repurchase
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Products
Well Balanced for Economic Cycles and Consumer Trends
Geographies
Developing & Emerging
35%Developed
65%
Note: Data is based on 2013 reported net revenue
Beverages48%Snacks
52%
Global NutritionGlobal
Nutrition
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PepsiCo is Better Together
• Portfolio is focused on taste and convenience
• PepsiCo is the largest branded F&B business in many of our key markets
• Our presence in beverages supports our snacks growth
• Snacks and beverages purchased and consumed together
$800 Million to $1 Billionin Annual Synergies
Provides Incremental Top-lineand Bottom-Line Benefits
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Global Nutrition Market
• Complementary growth in developed markets• Scale-enabled growth in D&E markets
D&E Markets Snacks & Beverages
• Invest to build strong share position
• Capture fair share of growing beverage occasions
• Selectively pursue small tuck-in acquisitions to build scale and footprint
Clear Portfolio and Market Strategies…
Developed Market Beverages
• Defend share and grow profitability sustainably
• Exploit available productivity opportunities
• Create science-based product differentiation
Developed Market Snacks
• Defend and grow share of salty snacks
• Grow organically into broader savory/sweet snacking
• Leverage beverage business to expand foodservice business dramatically
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…Provide Line of Sight to Revenue Projections…
GeographyCategory
52%~2/3
48%~1/3
35%~2/3
65%~1/3
Growth Rate % of Growth% of Revenue
LSD-MSD
Growth Rate % of Growth% of Revenue
LSD-MSD
MSD
Beverages
Snacks
HSD-LDD
Developed
Developing & Emerging
Mid-Single-Digit Organic Revenue GrowthNote: Percentage of revenue figures are based on full year 2013 results. Assumes: 3-5 year timeframe, currency neutral, no acquisitions, divestitures or structural changes. Organic revenue is a non-GAAP financial measure that excludes certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the “Investors-Events and Presentations” section at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial measure.
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…And to Margins and Returns
Emerging Developing Developed
Growth Driver Penetration Frequency Expansion
Role in Portfolio
Revenue Growth
Absolute Margin / ROIC
Margin Improvement
Cash Flow
ROIC Improvement
Key Markets China, India Russia, Mexico, Brazil U.S., U.K.
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North America Beverage Provides Important Benefits Which a Separation Would Dramatically Reduce
PEP Relevance to Retailers
PEP Rank
Separate
Integrated Food/Snacks Beverage
Grocery A 1 5 8
Grocery B 1 4 7
Grocery C 1 4 6
Grocery D 1 4 10
Grocery E 2 6 10
Mass F 4 13 16
Drug G 6 25 17
Drug H 6 21 14
Sources: IRI, Mars & Co AnalysisNote: Based on estimated retail sales of PepsiCo food and beverages compared to other suppliers
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NAB Provides Important Benefits Which a Separation Would Dramatically Reduce
• Shared procurement organizations and purchases
• Shared consumer and customer insights organizations
• Joint advertising and use of major properties (e.g. NFL)
• Occasion-focused product bundles/promotions
• Loyalty-based promotions
• Joint POS/displays and promotions
• National account selling and cross-merchandising
‘Better Together’ Benefits
Source: Mars & Co Analysis
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LRB Leads US Food & Beverage Retail Sales
Beverages are an Important Category in North America
• Large, Profitable Category withHigh Velocities
• Key Traffic Driver for Retailers
• Significant Cash Flow for Retailers
100
66 53
42 28 27 27 24 22 22
All LRB Dairy Liquor Snacks Meals Bakery Candy RefrigMeats
FrozenMeals
Baking
All retail sales values indexed to LRB
Source: IRI 2012 retail sales
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PEP Has an Advantaged Beverage Portfolio in North America
Balanced Portfolio with Leading Positions in Fastest Growing Categories
CSD Flavor
23%NCB
54%
CSD Cola
23%
PEP Value Share Position
RTD Tea #1
Sports Drinks #1
RTD Coffee #1
CSD #2
CSD/NCB Split and Value Share Positions Based on IRI US MULOC Retail Sales. RTD Coffee and RTD Tea are through partnerships with Starbucks and Lipton.
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2.5 1.80.4
4.4
-0.6
2.3
8.3
-0.9
0.1
-2.8
6.0
-4.9
-1.4 -1.7
Net Pricing at Retailvs 2012
Value Share Change Relative to Primary Competitor
LRB CSD Sports Drinks
RTD Tea
RTD Coffee
AmbientJuice
Chilled Juice
Even (0.3) 1.0 2.8 0.1 (0.3) 1.3
PepsiCo Primary Competitor
NAB Stabilizing Value Share While Achieving Strong Retail Net Price Realization
Source: IRI MULOC 52 weeks ended Dec 29, 2013
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We Reexamined NAB’s Role in the Portfolio
• No Return to the Conflicted Franchisee-Franchisor Relationship of the Past / Ensure Rapid Decision Making and Low Coordination Costs and Friction
• Limit Value Chain Decoupling and Redundancies in the System
• Maintain Competitive Balance / Ensure That New System is Competitively Advantaged
• Maintain Control Over Core Strategic Activities (Marketing, Innovation, R&D)
• Preserve / Advance National Account Alignment
• Leverage the Scale of PepsiCo System (across Beverages globally, and across North America Snacks and Beverages)
Key Design Principles
Key criteria: Will a change sustainably create value?
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NAB Separation Alternatives Weaken Competitiveness, Descale A&M and Innovation, and Would Come At a Low Valuation
NAB Provides
• Significant NA snack and global beverage synergies
• Relevance to US retailers
• Global scale to drive transformational R&D, Innovation and Global A&M initiatives
• Ability to export beverage talent into the remaining international business
• Potential upsides (sweetener innovation, return on A&M investment, supply chain and GTM cost savings from productivity programs)
• Integrated business structure to best complete next generation business improvement initiatives
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Our Conclusion: Current NAB Structure Maximizes Value
• Aligned System Objectives / Execution
• Potential to Capture Upside from More Productivity and Innovation
• Maximizes Global Beverage and Total U.S. Business Scale
• Provides U.S. Cash Flow for Increased Cash Returns to Shareholders
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Summary
• Transformed PepsiCo
• We Delivered in 2013
• The PepsiCo Portfolio Works: Products and Geographies
• Extending $1 Billion Annual Productivity Savings Target to 2019
• 2014 Guidance In Line with Long-Term Targets
• Increasing Cash Returns with Substantially Stepped Up Dividend and Share Repurchase
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Extending Our Productivity With a New 5-Year, $5-Billion Program
2012-2014 2015-2019
$1 BillionAnnual Productivity Savings Expected
to SustainThrough 2019
Current New
$3 Billion
$5 Billion
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Productivity Programs Center on Four Focus Areas
Automation
Shared Services
Restructuring Manufacturing
Restructuring GTM
Replacing Laborwith Capital
Leveraging Others’ Scale in Commoditized Activities
Optimizing Global Footprint
Optimizing Distribution Network
Packaging Automation
Global Financial Shared Services
Local to Regional Manufacturing Network
Third Party Mfg.
GESGTMS
Focus ExamplesObjective
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Capital Reduction
Case Study: GES
Labor Cost Reduction
Fleet and FuelInventory Reduction (Working Capital)
1 Plant
8-10 DCsVs.
Less Trucks At the DC In Route Sales
Traditional GES
Days On Hand
Less Expensive Assets Less Total Miles
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• Modeling & Planning
• Inbound Freight
Case Study: Global Transportation Management System
• Capacity Management
• Payload Optimization
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Summary
• Transformed PepsiCo
• We Delivered in 2013
• The PepsiCo Portfolio Works: Products and Geographies
• Extending $1 Billion Annual Productivity Savings Target to 2019
• 2014 Guidance In Line with Long-Term Targets
• Increasing Cash Returns with Substantially Stepped Up Dividend and Share Repurchase
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Expect to Deliver 2014 in Line with Long-Term Goals
MSD Organic Revenue Growth • Balanced price / volume / mix
• Topline growth and productivity to offset negative geographic mix, cost inflation, investments
• Corporate cost efficiency• ~25% core tax rate• Reduced share count
• 7%
• (3)% Revenue, (4)% core EPS
• ~$7 billion
• Capex < 5% of net revenue• ~$3.7 billion dividends (15% div / share increase)
• ~$5 billion share repurchases • ROIC improvement
Operating Margin Expansion
Below the Line Leverage
Core Constant Currency EPS Growth1
Fx Translation2
Free Cash Flow (excluding certain items)
Capital Allocation Discipline and Cash Returns
1.From PepsiCo’s fiscal 2013 EPS of $4.37 2. Based on current market consensus ratesNote: Certain of the above items represent non-GAAP financial measures that exclude certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the “Investors-Events and Presentations” section at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and reconciliation of the above non-GAAP financial measures.
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2013 Core EPS $4.37
2014 Core, Constant Currency EPS Growth ~7%
Impact of Foreign Exchange Translation* ~(4)%
2014 Core EPS ~$4.50
2014 Guidance
* Based on current market consensus ratesNote: Certain of the above items represent non-GAAP financial measures that exclude certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the “Investors-Events and Presentations” section at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and reconciliation of the above non-GAAP financial measures.
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2014 Outlook Reflects Balanced Assessmentof Headwinds and Tailwinds
Headwinds
Mexico Taxes
Commodity Inflation Higher Than 2013
Foreign Exchange Translation
Continued Cola Headwinds
Tailwinds
Productivity
Strong Innovation Agenda
Higher Share Repurchase
Lower Core Tax Rate
Pension Discount Rate
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Our Long-Term Goals Remain Intact
Top Tier TSRTop Tier TSR
• Core, Constant Currency EPS HSD
• Operating Margin +30-50 bps / year
• Core Net ROIC 50+ bps / year
• Core FCF growth = Net Income growth
• Strong returns to shareholders (dividends and share repurchases)
• Organic Revenue Growth MSD
• Balanced offerings between FFY, BFY, GFY
• Increased Developing & Emerging Market Footprint
SupportingFundamentals:
• Leading Brand Building, Innovation and Design Capability
• Flexible, Low-Cost Supply Chains That Are Environmentally Sustainable
• World-Class Talent Development
• Better Together
Long-Term Goals
Note: Certain of the above items represent Non‐GAAP financial measures that exclude certain items. Please refer to the “Reconciliation of GAAP and Non‐GAAP Information” attachment posted on February 13, 2014 under the "Investors ‐ Events and Presentations” section on PepsiCo’s website at www.pepsico.com to find disclosure and a reconciliation of the above non‐GAAP financial measures.
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Disciplined Capital Allocation Remains a Top Priority
1. Invest in the Business– Capital Spending of No More Than 5% of Net Revenue
2. Pay Dividends– Increased Dividend for 42 Consecutive Years
3. Strengthen Positions Through Tuck-In Acquisitions– Generally Less Than $500 Million / Year
4. Return Additional Cash Through Share Repurchases– While Maintaining Access to Debt Capital Markets at Attractive Interest Rates
Capital Allocation Priorities
Target ~50 bps of Annual Core Net ROIC Improvement
1
2
3
4
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Summary
• Transformed PepsiCo
• We Delivered in 2013
• The PepsiCo Portfolio Works: Products and Geographies
• Extending $1 Billion Annual Productivity Savings Target to 2019
• 2014 Guidance In Line with Long-Term Targets
• Increasing Cash Returns with Substantially Stepped Up Dividend and Share Repurchase
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$2.27
$2.62
2013 2014
Improving Cash Returns to Shareholders: Increasing Dividend
• Represents 42nd Consecutive Yearof Annual Dividend Increases
• Approximately 60% Payout Ratio
• New Annual Dividend to Represent3.2% Yield on Current Share Price
• 10 Year Annualized Dividend perShare CAGR of 11%
Increasing DividendsPer Share by 15% in June 2014
Note: 15% dividend per share increase is effective with June dividend payment. Payout ratio calculated based on annual dividends per share of $2.62 divided by 2013 core EPS of $4.37.
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2013 2014
Improving Cash Returns to Shareholders:Increasing Share Repurchase
Targeting 67% Increasein 2014 Share Repurchases$5 Billion
$3 Billion
• 2014 share repurchase activity approximates 4% of PEP market capitalization
• Increasing cash returns to shareholders while maintaining Tier 1 commercial paper access
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Targeted Total Cash Returns to Shareholders of $8.7 Billion in 2014
$8.7 Billion
$6.4 Billion
Targeting 35% YoY Increasein Total Cash Returns
2013 2014
Cumulative Cash Returnedto Shareholders to Exceed
$60 Billion Over Ten Years