Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters
Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken
USC Aiken Surveys
• Began in early 1980s – Research Methods classes
• Formed Organization for Public Service and contractual work: SSBRL—Social Science and Business Research Lab
• Reports on line at: http://www.usca.edu/polisci/SSBRLab/
• Perform wide variety of research/surveys
Special Surveys under Contract
Aiken County General Population Telephone Surveys
Exit Polls in Even Numbered Years
The Long Term: Party ID Over Time
81 GP 82 8384 GP
85 GP
86 AGP
87 AGP
88 AGP89 GP
90 GP91 GP
92 EP93 GP
94 EP95 GP
96 EP 9798 EP
99 GP00 EP
01 GP02 EP
03 GP04 EP
05 GP06 EP
07 GP08 EP
09 GP
2010 EP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% Dem % Rep% Ind
Year and Type of Survey
Party ID Over Time-2 Party Split
81 GP 82 8384 GP
85 GP
86 AGP
87 AGP
88 AGP89 GP
90 GP91 GP
92 EP93 GP
94 EP95 GP
96 EP 9798 EP
99 GP00 EP
01 GP02 EP
03 GP04 EP
05 GP06 EP
07 GP08 EP
09 GP
2010 EP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% Dem % Rep
Year and Type of Survey
Gender Gap (2010 Exit Poll)
• Males: 22% Dem – 57% Rep
• Females: 35% Dem – 52% Rep
Ethnicity
• Whites: 13% Dem – 67% Rep• Blacks: 92% Dem – 3% Rep
• Turnout: Blacks comprise 25% of the population but only 20% of voters
• If Dem won ALL black votes, still need 30 of the remaining 80 percentage points of the white vote, or 38% of the total white vote
Age: averages
• Democrats average age: 51
• Republicans average age: 56
Age DistributionPtyID3 by Age4
Demindep/othRep
0%
100%
18-35 36-50 50-65 66+
[Weight]
Regional Identification
• Native Southerners: 28% Dem – 57% Rep • Converted Southrn: 21% Dem – 59% Rep• Non-Southerners: 39% Dem – 39% Rep
• Non-Southerners comprise about 12% of all voters; Native Southerners about 68%
Religious Fundamentalism
• Fundamentalists: 25% Dem – 64% Rep
• Non-Fundamentalists: 30% Dem – 49% Rep
Ideology of all Voters
• Hard for non-conservatives to win in Aiken County– Liberals comprised 15% of all voters– Mid Road/Not Sure’s: 27% of all voters– Conservatives: 58% of all voters
Issue: Irritated when hear people speaking Spanish in public?
• Democrats: 36% Irritated – 65% Not• Independents: 47% Irritated – 54% Not • Republicans: 54% Irritated – 46% Not• • • Overall: 47% Irritated – 53% Not
Issue: Social Security—keep or phase out w/ voluntary savings
• Democrats: 97% Keep – 3% Phase Out• Independents: 85% Keep – 15% Phase Out• Republicans: 84% Keep – 16% Phase Out
Issue: Health Care—cover all; only old, poor child, disabled; or free market
• Democrats: 94% all; 4% o/pc/d; 2% fm• Independents: 43% all; 21% o/pc/d; 37% fm• Republicans: 17% all; 29% o/pc/d; 55% fm
• All voters: 43% all; 20% o/pc/d; 37% fm
Issue: School Vouchers— oppose b/c take $ from public schools; support b/c would
increase competition
• Democrats: 70% oppose – 30% support• Independents: 56% oppose – 44% support• Republicans: 37% oppose – 64% support
• All voters: 50% oppose – 50% support
Issue: Abortion—pro life; mid ground; or pro choice
• Democrats: 14% p/l; 26% mid; 61% p/c• Independents: 14% p/l; 35% mid; 51% p/c• Republicans: 26% p/l; 46% mid; 28% p/c
• All voters: 20% p/l; 39% mid; 41% p/c
Issue: Obama is really a Muslim?no – yes – not sure
• Democrats: 93% no – 2% yes – 6% n/s• Independents: 52% no – 27% yes – 21% n/s• Republicans: 30% no – 42% yes – 28% n/s
• All voters: 52% no – 28% yes – 20% n/s
Tea Party Supporters
• Supporters: 1% Dem – 82% Rep• Non-supporters: 57% Dem – 25% Rep
• Tea party Supporters comprised 43% of all voters• And 65% of all Republican voters• Non-Tea Party Republicans are quite different
than Tea Party Supporters—as we shall see!
How Tea Party Supporters Differ
• Should politicians compromise?• Dem: 90% Ind: 96% Rep: 82% TP: 64%• Support school vouchers?• Dem: 25% Ind: 22% Rep: 38% TP: 60%• Health care run totally by free market?• Dem: 2% Ind: 15% Rep: 47% TP: 61%• Religion very important in vote choice?• Dem: 24% Ind: 9% Rep: 25% TP: 34%
Continued
• Never bothered by Spanish in public?• Dem: 64% Ind: 60% Rep: 55% TP: 42%• Phase out Social Security?• Dem: 2% Ind: 6% Rep: 9% TP: 21%• Prefer helpful leaders over strong leaders?• Dem: 88% Ind: 72% Rep: 58% TP: 49%• Cut spending over stim econ & save programs?• Dem: 9% Ind: 41% Rep: 61% TP: 86%
continued
• Pro choice on abortion?• Dem: 56% Ind: 63% Rep: 41% TP: 22%• Self-identify as Religious Fundamentalists?• Dem: 27% Ind: 11% Rep: 28% TP: 38%• Family income > $50k last year?• Dem: 44% Ind: 65% Rep: 59% TP: 68%• Political Ideology: Moderates?• Dem: 50% Ind: 53% Rep: 22% TP: 9%
Conclusions
• Current huge advantage for GOP and conservatives – unless more moderate Republicans become
alienated by Tea Party extremism– Note: county less conservative on issues than in
labels
• Long term demographics favor more competitive elections – Because of age and non-southerners