PACIFIC ECONOMIC MONITOR
July 2013 issue
Official launch at the Pacific and PNG Update Conference 27 June 2013 Canberra, Australia
Regional Economic Outlook
Presentation planned
International and regional developments
–Global growth prospects; and Pacific trade, tourism, and remittances
Developments in Pacific Economies
– Common economic policy issues and challenges
Policy Theme–regional economic cooperation and integration
•Weak global economy: Outlook generally improving in 2014
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
United States
New Zealand
Japan
Australia
Euro area
Developing Asia
Pacific DMCs
World
2014p
2013p
2012e
Sources: IMF.2013. World Economic Outlook (April); and ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook Update.
Growth globally and in selected economic regions (percent annual)
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
United States
New Zealand
Japan
Australia
Euro area
Developing Asia
Pacific DMCs
World
2014p
2013p
2012e
Sources: IMF.2013. World Economic Outlook (April); and ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook Update.
Growth globally and in selected economic regions (percent annual)
International and regional developments
Continuing price declines, leading to falls in export earnings
0
75
150
225
300
Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13
Crude oil
Coconut oil
Logs
Food index
Commodity prices (index, Jan. 2009 = 100)
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheets)
Tourism to the Pacific down from 2012 high, but generally remains robust
0
25
50
75
100
2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Australia
New Zealand
Tourist departures to Pacific destinations ('000. January to March)
Mixed trends for Pacific trade with Australia and New Zealand
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Pacific imports from New Zealand
Pacific exports to New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand.
Pacific trade with New Zealand(NZ$ million, January-December totals)
Pacif ic exports to Australia
0
300
600
900
1,200
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Pacific imports from Australia
Pacific exports to Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Pacific trade with Australia(A$ mi l lion, January-December totals)
Employment overseas & remittances— Slight decline of employment in NZ
0
6
12
18
0
40
80
120
Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13
Employed persons ('000, lhs)
Unemployment rate among Pacific workers (%, rhs)
NZL unemployment rate (%, rhs)
Employment of Pacific workers in NZL (quarterly)
Growth in larger resource exporting economies
Growth and inflation trends in the Pacific
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Timor-Leste
Solomon Islands
Papua NewGuinea
2014p
2013p
2012e
2011
2010
2009
GDP growth (% per annum)
Growth in tourism oriented economies
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Vanuatu
Palau
Cook Islands
2014p
2013p
2012e
2011
2010
2009
GDP growth (% per annum)
Growth in relatively diversified South Pacific economies
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Tonga
Samoa
Fiji
2014p
2013p
2012e
2011
2010
2009
GDP growth (% per annum)
Growth in the smallest Pacific economies
-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0
Tuvalu
Nauru
Micronesia, Fed. States of
Marshall Islands
Kiribati
2014p
2013p
2012e
2011
2010
2009
GDP growth (% per annum)
Group averages (2009-2014)
GDP growth 2008 2009 2010 20112012e2013p2014p
Large resource exporters (PNG, SOL, TIM) 8.7 7.1 7.8 11.0 9.8 6.3 6.9
Tourism-oriented economies (COO, PAL, VAN) 2.3 1.7 0.5 1.9 3.2 3.2 3.4
Relatively diversified South Pacific economies(FIJ, SAM, TON) 1.5 -1.4 0.4 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.1
Smallest Pacific islands (KIR, RMI, FSM, NAU, TUV) 0.0 -0.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7
Inflation trends in the Pacific economies
0 3 6 9 12
Nauru
Kiribati
Fiji
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Cook Islands
Tonga
Samoa
Marshall Islands
FSM
Palau
Solomon Islands
Papua New Guinea
Timor-Leste
Change in consumer price index (%, annual average)
0
3
6
9
2009 10 11 12e 13p 14p
Pacific region
Pacific islands
2013
2014
Inflation trends in the Pacific Economies
Policy Theme: Progress and prospects for Pacific regional economic cooperation and integration
The emergence of the ASEAN, the PRC, and India as increasingly important trading partners for South Pacific economies.
A new trade cost indicator for Pacific economies, compared to other existing indicators.
Prospects of North Pacific economies upon conclusion of their compacts of free association with the US and highlights the need to reduce aid dependency in these countries.
A contribution from the Crawford School of Public Policy examines the Caribbean’s experiences with regional cooperation and integration for possible lessons for the Pacific.
Four articles exploring the Pacific’s changing external economic ties
Asian Development Bank
www.adb.org/pacmonitor
Thank you…