Transcript
Page 1: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County

and 2010 Elections

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community CollegeMarch 30, 2011

Page 2: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Topics

1. Recent CSLI survey results – March 7-10

2. Election results from 2010 – affecting Anne Arundel County

Page 3: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Overview of Survey Process

•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College

•Operating since 1978

•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach

• Main activity – public interest surveys

oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers

o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…

• Last survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus on this presentation• www2.aacc.edu/csli

• since 1978

Page 4: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Polling Results for AA CountyRemarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

62

66

60 61 62

51

58 58

53

5755

51 52 51 5052

47

52 5249 50

23

2725 24 23

15

26

21

25

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

20 1917

20

15

19

14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 2023 22

RightWrongUnsure

Page 5: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Fall

'04

Spri

ng '05

Fall

'05

Spri

ng '06

Fall

'06

Spri

ng '07

Fall

'07

Spri

ng '08

Fall

'08

Spri

ng

'09

Fall

'09

Spri

ng '10

Fall

'10

Sp '11

Mean

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

712

8

23

38

48

3336 36 36

22.4285714285714

14

18

22

16

21

16 16

129

5 5 52

4

11.785714285714311.21428571428578.64285714285713

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high

Growth /development Education /

Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs

AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11

Economy – top concern with no recent changes

Page 6: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4648

44 45

49

2730 31 32

35

5

11 11 11 11

Maryland improves by 8%

Anne Arundel County

USA

AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy

Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009

Page 7: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

S'02

F '02

S '03

F '03

S '04

F '04

S '05

F '05

S '06

F '06

S '07

F '07

S '08

F '08

S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

34 3431 28

3842

32

27

17

5 510 11 11 13

7476

56 56

62

74 74 71 7471 71

69

55

49 46 4844 45

49

CSLI – Anne Arundel County

Gallup – National Polling for USA

Page 8: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

01020304050607080

11 6

35

15

71

4

3024

75

6

51

2924

70

8

4633

19

56

7

47

3221

60

7

4434

20

52

9

4735

Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Little change except for fewer losses in stocks/retirement accounts

Page 9: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

The economy: what else applies?

Unabl

e to

find

affor

dabl

e ho

usin

g

Wag

es o

r sal

arie

s ar

e no

t risi

ng a

s fa

st a

s the

cost

of l

ivin

g

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of t

rans

porta

tion

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of u

tiliti

es su

ch a

s el

ectrici

ty o

r gas

Taxes

are

too

high

in re

latio

n to

gov

ernm

ent s

ervice

s pro

vide

d0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

50

58

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

14

63

4146

63

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

Big jump in transportation costs

Page 10: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Condition Fall2005

Spring2011

Balancing the county budget (less spending, more revenues)

0 18

Providing enough jobs 8 16Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving education/schools

11 12

Managing growth/development 27 8Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation 3 7All other answers 51 39Total 100 100

Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County – Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011

Budget and jobs rise in importance

Page 11: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services

Answer Percentage

Yes 26No 70

Don’t know, no answer

5

Total 101

Services mentioned Cases PercentageRoads 39 24

Schools/teachers 31 19

Library 24 15

College tuition 12 7

Fire 10 6

Seniors services 10 6Jobs/furloughs/pay cuts

106

Police 9 6

Staffing 7 4

Child services 6 4

MVA 3 2

Mental health 2 1

Total 163 100

Most don’t see an impact from govt. belt-tightening

Page 12: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

12

Issue Support Oppose Unsure

Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1

Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10

Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3

Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3

Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4

Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8

Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23

Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4

Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2

Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7

Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16

Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7

Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3

State and County Issues

Page 13: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

SupportSocial Category %Party p=.01Democrat 57Unaffiliated 48Republican 35Ideology p=.01Liberal 81Moderate 53Conservative 22Religion p=.01None/Non-practicing 75Jewish 71Spiritual but not part of organized religion

64

Other 46Catholic 43Protestant 40Some other Christian 38Evangelical 30Marital Status p=01.Single 66Married 45Gender p=.3Female 51Male 44

Age p=.0718-30 5331-40 5141-50 5151-60 5361+ 37Race p=.3Black 30White 49Other (including Hispanic, Asian and unspecified ‘other’)

50

Demographics/Same Sex Marriage% saying “Support”

Page 14: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Yes No Unsure/N.A.

Total

President Obama’s state of the union speech? 72 28 1 101

Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his state of the state speech

41 58 1 100

Watched County Council hearings being broadcast on local cable stations anytime over the last year?

19 80 1 100

Watched, listened or read about…

Page 15: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Estimates %Under $1 billion 4$1 billion to $500 billion

17

$501 to $999 billion 4$1-1.999 trillion 21$2-2.99 trillion 10$3-4.99 trillion 22$5-6 trillion 6Over $6 trillion 17Total 101

Estimations of Federal Budget

51% estimated

Estimates %

Under $1 billion 30$1-5.99 billion 26$6 to $10.99 billion

7

$11-15.99 billion 4$16-20.99 billion 5$21-30.99 billion 3$31-40 billion 1Over $40 billion 24Total 100

Estimates %

Under $5 million 22$5-50 million 18$51 to $100 million

10

$101-350 million 8$351-650 million 9$651-999 million 7$1-1.99 billion 14$2-2.99 billion 3$4-6.99 billion 4Over $7 billion 6Total 100

Estimations of County Budget31% estimated

Estimations of State Budget31% estimated

Page 16: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Fall '06

Spring '07

Fall '07

Spring '08

Fall '08

Spring '09

Fall '09

Spring '10

Fall '10

Spring '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3934 35

2824

5347 47

4247

3733 32 30

25

6154

4743

47

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…

Page 17: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Presidential Job Approval: % approving of president’s job by party

2824

5347 47

4247

9 6

7972 69

6270

57

43

2517

24 251819

24

53 53 52

35

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sp. '08 Fa. '08 Sp '09 Fa. '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '10

Overall

Democrats

Republicans

Indep

Bush Obama

Page 18: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

2010 Elections

Page 19: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Statewide Races – AAC Results

‘06/’10

Govr Comptroller Atty Gen. Senate0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

43.3

5151.5

45.743.450.4

100

52.3

56.749

48.5

54.354.4

49.6

0

47.7

U.S.

Very little change in Governor or Comptroller outcomes

Mikulski improves

Page 20: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

66972

-2254

-28743-20788

-53215

-27581

-21963

Dem – Rep Vote for GovernorSchaeffer 83%Mooney 17%

Schaeffer 49%Shepard 51%

Glendening 40%Sauerbrey 60%

Glendening 43%Sauerbrey 57%

KK Townsend 35%Ehrlich 65%

O’Malley 42%Ehrlich 57%

O’Malley 43%Ehrlich 54%

O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit

Page 21: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010

Nov. 2006

March 2010

October 11-14, 2010

Oct. 26-27

Nov. 2

Candidate ActualVote

All Categorie

s

Exclude some

All categorie

s

Exclude some

Exclude all

except voters

Exit Poll

Actual

Vote

O’Malley 42 35 43 29 32 42 46 43Ehrlich 56.9 47 57 40 45 59 51 54Gap 14.9 12 14 11 13 19 5 11Other -- 3 -- 2 -- -- 3 --Undecided -- -- -- 22 24 -- -- --Neither -- 5 -- 1 -- -- -- --Unsure -- 10 -- 5 -- -- -- --Total 100 100 99 101 101 100

Polls are in range, but with internal variation

Page 22: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33)

STATE SENATOR 30 STATE SENATOR 31 STATE SENATOR 32 STATE SENATOR 330%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

54%50%

62%

45%46%50%

38%

55%51%

38%

60%

0%

49%

62%

40%

100%

Dem 2006Rep 2006Dem 2010Rep 2010

Dems experience lower percentages in all districts

Page 23: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep

Gap

30 31 32 33a 33b

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

4982

-3341

10983

-5038

-2164

-3567

-32511

8825

-27514

-14492

Dem-Rep 2006

Dem-Rep 2010

Big Dem loss in 31 33b uncontested

33a only 1 Dem cand.

Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems there?

Race gets very close in 30

Page 24: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts 30,31,32,33

Minimum winning vote Seats

District Senate Delegates

Senate Delegate

30 25253 22535 Dem D=1/R=2

31 25723 22436 Rep D=0/R=3

32 24762 18786 Dem D=3/R=0

33(a) 43466unconteste

d

18603 Rep D=0/R=2

33b 14623 D=0/R=1

Page 25: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

District 31: State Senate Races:

2006-2010

2006: Walter Shandrowski 49.1%

Brian Simonaire 50.8%

2010: Ned Carey 37.8%

Brian Simonaire 62.1%

Page 26: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

District 31 – 2006 vs. 2010 Delegate

Races

Democratic candidates can’t replicate 2006 results!

Candidate 2010: % Votes Candidate 2006: %

Votes

Chiappelli 11.8 12943 Cadden 17.0 17529

-4586

Towles 10.9 11968 Fleckenstein 16.1 16651

-4683

Ekert 10.8 11856 Reynolds 14.0 14452

-2596

Total 11.2 36767 15.7 48632

-1186

5

Page 27: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

District 31: Demographic InfoToo many conservatives, not enough moderates

Page 28: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

District 31: Issues and Conditions

Economic distress is high

Same

sex m

arria

ge

In-st

ate

tuiti

on fo

r ille

gal

Limit

Arbitr

atio

n - s

uppo

rt

Wag

es n

ot g

oing

up

Delay

s in

maj

or p

urch

ases

Utiliti

es cos

t

Trans

porta

tion

cost

Losse

s in

stoc

ks

Health

insu

ranc

e

Find

affor

dabl

e ho

usin

g

Forec

losu

re

Unem

ploy

men

t

Incr

ease

gas

tax

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

43

27 26

83

56 5653

42

36

20 1916

6

47

34 35

63

46 4641

51

35

149

2118

District 3 County

Page 29: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

County Elections: Slots at Arundel MillsOpponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort?Position March

’10Oct.‘10

Exit Poll

Actual Vote

Support 45 42 60 55.6Oppose 45 42 39 44.4Gap 0 0 21 11.2Unsure 7 16 -- --No answer 2 -- 1 --Total 99 100 100 100

Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel.  An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location.

What happened to shift voter sentiment at last minute?

Page 30: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Question A: Election Day vs. Early Votingby Council District

1 2 3 4 5 6 70.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

51.1%

59.5%

65.0%

52.0%54.1% 54.8% 55.9%

61.3%

47.3%

54.5%54.8%

56.5%

Quest AEarly Votes

Harundale Lib

West County

Lib

SPark Lib Annap

Senior Ctr

Edgewa-ter Lib

Early voted at West County

Early voting a good predictor of election day votes

Page 31: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

County Executive Vote 1994-2010

1994 1998 2002 2006 20100

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

5761563879

83305

9353397465

54899

87676 8945689613

85040

10486

RepDemOther

2716 23987 6151 392012425

Including Shay -1930

GAP

Only a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates

Page 32: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

2010 County Exec Race Over

TimeNov. 2006

June 2010Online Poll

Sept.2010Onlin

ePoll

October 11-14, 2010

Oct. 26-27

Nov. 2

Candidate

ActualVote

All Categories

All Categories

All categories

Exclude some

Exclude all

except voters

Exit Poll

ActualVote

Johnson/Conti

49 30 (Owens)

23 (Conti)

28 21 24 37 39 44.0

Leopold 51 52/54 54 34 38 59 50 50.5Gap 2 22/31 26 13 14 22 11 6.5Other -- 15/16 10 2 3 -- -- 5.4Undecided

-- -- -- 32 35 -- -- --

Neither -- 4/7 9 2 -- -- 3 --Unsure -- -- -- 10 -- -- -- --Total 101/100 101 100 101 100 100Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…

Page 33: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Vote Composition: Exit Poll

Overall Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

44

72

12

4843

84

9

39

51

89

15

57

ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee

Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit among unaffiliated

Page 34: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll

Strg Dem Weak Dem Ind Dem Ind Rep Weak Rep Strg Rep0

20

40

60

80

100

120

81

64

31 29

19

4

95

75

50

2112

0

96

83 83

13

40

4

ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee

Conti lags among Dems, but gains among Reps

Page 35: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Vote by Ideology

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

79

54

1016

41

8285

52

610

40

9494

59

136

42

87

ContiLeopoldO'MalleyEhrlichWeathersbeeGrannon

Conti lags among liberals but does a bit better with conservatives

Page 36: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

County Exec.: How informed were

voters?

Series10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9

28

56 56

35

16

31

43 42

53

27

5

0 0

24

0

76

0

ContiLeopoldUndecided

Oct. 11-14

Oct. 11-14

Oct. 11-14

EXIT POLL

EXIT POLL

EXIT POLL

VERY In-formed

SOMEWHAT Informed

NOT VERY Informed

Voters seem informed by election

Leopold voters started and remained more informed

Page 37: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)

  On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?

 Issue Conti Leopold

L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know

enough

Undec.+ don’t

know enough

Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall

10 17 7 1 27 4673

Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66

Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 4465

Maintaining high ethical standards

17 17 0 3 24 3963

Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62

Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62

Making County government more efficient

12 29 17 2 21 3758

Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57

Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56

Having the right experience for the job

11 32 21 1 21 3556

Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55

Encouraging economic development

13 31 18 1 18 3755

Page 38: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

  Conti

Leopold L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know enough

U

Undecided/Don’tknow

enough

Having the right experience for the job

11 32 21 1 21 35 56

Encouraging economic development

13 31 18 1 18 37 55

Making County government more efficient

12 29 17 2 21 37 58

Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56

Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55

Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62

Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall

10 17 7 1 27 46 73

Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 44 65

Maintaining high ethical standards

17 17 0 3 24 39 63

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)

Page 39: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll)

Issue/trait Overall Conti Leopold L-C

Balance budget 30 21 44 23Taxes 21 10 34 24Right experience 22 15 32 17Cost of living 14 7 23 16Strong leader 16 11 24 13Economy 33 31 43 12Crime 14 9 20 11Growth/devel. 15 12 18 6Familiar name 4 1 7 6Slots 10 8 12 4Constituent serv. 9 8 11 3Environment 15 17 11 -6Schools 21 26 19 -7Honesty 13 21 8 -13Right moral outlook

16 24 9-15

Party affiliation 28 38 22 -16

Conti bets on character and party

Leopold bets on experience and issues

Page 40: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Weathersbee vs. Bateman

Council District

Weathersbee ‘06

Weathersbee

‘10

Weathersbee

‘10-’06

Bateman‘10

W-B

1 57.3 54.3 -3 60.4 -6.12 55.3 52.8 -2.5 59.8 -7.03 48.8 43.6 -5.2 55.5 -11.94 58.2 56.4 -1.8 61.9 -5.55 49.2 46.7 -2.5 55.1 -8.46 62.0 58.6 -3.4 61.5 -2.97 51.8 45.7 -6.1 50.7 -5.0

Total54.7 51.2 -3.5

57.8 (up from 54% in ‘06) -6.7Weathersbee has losses in

districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and no gains in any district

Bateman increases votes from ‘06 and wins majority in all districts in 2010

Page 41: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Council Districts Party Registration

36% D, 41%R, 19%U

48%D, 31%R, 18%U

53%D, 29%R, 18%U

49%D, 32%R, 18%U42%D, 39%R, 19%U

37%D, 44%R, 20%U

47%D, 31%R, 18%U

Page 42: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Democratic Candidates by Council

District

CC1

CC2

CC3

CC4

CC5

CC6

CC7

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

49.2%

48.5%

35.7%

57.1%

42.8%

58.0%

43.8%

45.8%

42.8%

30.8%

51.9%

37.1%

51.7%

39.8%

47.4%

46.2%

35.0%

53.8%

38.7%

48.1%

39.9%

52.5%

45.5%

41.0%

59.5%

36.0%

53.1%

36.4%

51.7%

48.1%

41.7%

47.1%

36.6%

46.1%

37.6%

PartyReg

DemCC

Conti

Omalley

Obama

Benoit and Trumbauer exceed Dem registra-tion

Klosterman under-performs in district 2

Conti underperforms in district 6

Rudolph about aver-age in district 5

Meaningless party reg. in district 3

Majority Dem regis-tration in D1

Page 43: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Legislativ

e Districts

Page 44: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Questions to ponder:• 1. Can Democrats be successful countywide

and in ‘harder’ districts?

oBateman, Weathersbee • Quality of candidate• Quality of opponent• Quality of campaign• Impact of larger trends – national, statewide

• Changes in the composition of the electorate

• Saliency of issues

Page 45: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Questions to ponder:• 2. What is the future of District 31

Democratic seatsoDemocrats demoralized?oWill the 2010 results undermine

recruitment efforts?oWhat issues can Democrats successfully

use in the district?oWhat vulnerabilities do Democrats have

– on issues, in the composition of the electorate, in the recruitment of candidates?

Page 46: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Questions to ponder:• As chair of the AAC Dem Central

Committee…o Identify potential candidates, groom them earlyo Identify key issues within each districto Identify how changes in the composition of the

electorate might affect Dem candidateso Provide experience based campaign trainingo Conduct opposition research – identify Republican

vulnerabilities, develop key talking points, test ideas on focus groups, conduct polls

o Develop consistent outreach tools - a Democratic newsletter – online distribution, central location for all Dem events, solicit input from voters

o Ensure turnout – close elections imply narrow victories!

Page 47: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: Exit Poll re: House

Vote

• Party identification in 2010: Dem/Rep at 35%, 29% Ind. (vs. 39/32/29% in 2008)

• Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps

• Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37% (vs. 41/52% in ‘08)

• Women equally split (48 D; 49% R) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008)

• Whites strongly Rep (60%) not Dem (37%) (vs. 55, 43% in 2008)

• Only those with little (57%) or postgrad ed (53%) favored Dems

Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls

Page 48: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: Exit Poll re: House

VoteDemographics of National House of Representatives

Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls

Vote by Age (08/10)

Dem ’08

Dem ‘10

Rep

18-29 18/12 66 55 42

30-44 29/24 52 46 50

45-64 37/43 50 45 53

65 and Older 16/21 45 38 59

Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?

Page 49: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

• Libs and Moderates favored Dems (90, 55%) but were too small (20, 38%) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively favored Reps (84)

(2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%)

• Lost job – no effect(30%)? Yes (50 Dem; 46% Rep) No (45, 54%)

• Union member (17%): Yes (61 Dem; 37% Rep) No (43, 54%)

• 2008 Presidential Vote: Obama (45%) 84,14%; McCain (45%) 7,91%, Other (4%) 33, 58%

• Is vote support for Obama? Yes (23%) 96 Dem; 3% Rep; No (37%) 6, 92%, Not factor (38%), 52, 44%

Page 50: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

How Congress is Handling its Job

 Democrat

 Republican

Strongly Approve (4%) 82 16Somewhat Approve (20%) 78 20Somewhat Disapprove (26%) 57 41Strongly Disapprove (48%) 19 77

What is your opinion of… Democr

at Republica

nDemocrats - favorable (44%) 91 8Republicans - favorable (41%) 11 88

Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing…

But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps

Page 51: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

Opinion of Federal Government

 Democrat

 Republican

Enthusiastic (3%) 92 6Satisfied (21%) 79 18Dissatisfied (48%) 41 55Angry (25%) 14 83

Govt should do more ? Dem Rep

Yes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’08 77 21

No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘08 20 76

Govt. perceived as over-reaching…

With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.

Page 52: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

How worried about economic conds.?

Dem Rep

Very Worried (49%) 30 68

Somewhat Worried (37%) 52 43

Not Too Worried (10%) 81 18Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind Dems

Economic anxieties favor Reps..

Worried That Economic Crisis Will Hurt Your Family

Dem Rep

Very Worried (48%) 62 36

Somewhat Worried (33%) 52 47

Not Too Worried (13%) 33 63

Not Worried At All (5%) 40 56

Page 53: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

Stimulus Policy has Dem Rep

Helped (32%) 86 13

Hurt (34%) 10 87

Made No Difference (31%) 39 57

Stimulus not perceived as having done enough…

While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough…

Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems?

Dem Rep

Wall Street (35%) 41 57

George W. Bush (29%) 83 15

Barack Obama (24%) 6 91

Page 54: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

What Should Congress Do With New Health Care Law?

Dem Rep

Expand It (31%) 84 15

Leave It As Is (16%) 63 34

Repeal It (48%) 11 86

And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most citizens…

Most Important Issue Facing Country Today

 Democrat

 Republican

Economy (63%) 43 54Health Care (18%) 51 47Illegal Immigration (8% 26 68War in Afghanistan (7%) 58 40

Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular

Page 55: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be Continued For...

Dem Rep

All Americans (40%) 14 84

Families Under $250,000 (36%) 64 32

No One (15%) 75 22

Highest Priority for Next Congress

Dem Rep

Cutting Taxes (18%) 26 71

Reducing Deficit (40%) 32 65

Spending to Create Jobs (37%) 68 30

Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit vs. cutting taxes

Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing

Page 56: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

National Politics: House Vote

U.S. War in Afghanistan Dem Rep

Approve (40%) 24 75

Disapprove (54%) 61 36

Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized?

Dem Rep

Yes (41%) 67 30

No (53%) 27 70

Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base?

While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems

Page 57: Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel

Democratic Candidates by Council District

Obama

OMalley Conti DemCC Mean

Party Reg

Mean-Reg.

CC1 49.2 45.8 47.4 52.5 48.7 51.7 -3

CC2 48.5 42.8 46.2 45.5 45.7 48.1 -2.4

CC3 35.7 30.8 35 41 35.6 41.7 -6.1

CC4 57.1 51.9 53.8 59.5 55.6 47.1 8.5

CC5 42.8 37.1 38.7 36 38.6 36.6 2.1

CC6 58 51.7 48.1 53.1 52.7 46.1 6.6

CC7 43.8 39.8 39.9 36.4 40 37.6 2.4

District 3 underperforms!

Districts 4 and 6 overperform


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