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Overview of Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia
Harkunti P. Rahayu, Ph.D. Chair WG1 ICG Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung Institute of Technology [email protected] and [email protected]
Topics:
1 Paradigm Shift in Disaster Management 2 State of the Art in Disaster Risk Reduction vs.
Sustainability Issue 3 Basic Concept of Tsunami Risk Assessment 4 Strategy of Tsunami Risk Reduction
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Paradigm Shift in Disaster Management
§ Shift from disaster management (Hyogo Framework of Action - HFA) focus to more disaster risk reduction (Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction - SFDRR): Ø to prevent new disaster risks, reduce existing disaster risks and
thus to strengthen resilience
§ “Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, structural, legal, social, health, cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to disaster, increase preparedness for effective response and build back better in recovery, and thus strengthen resilience”
SFDRR
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SDGs – Sustainable Development Goals
Role of SFDRR in 17 SDGs
§ Goal 11 is to make cities and human settlements inclusive, save, resilient and sustainable • By 2030: significantly reduce number of deaths, number of
people at risk, and direct economic losses caused by disaster, including water-related disaster.
• By 2020: goal 11 targets on substantially increase number of cities and human settlement in adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans toward inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement holistic disaster risk management at all levels.
§ Goal 17 is partnership for the goals à aiming to strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.
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Seven Global Targets of SFDRR (2015-2030)
Substantially Reduce by 2030: 1. Global disaster mortality à 100,000 global mortality rate. 2. Number of affected people globally à 100,000. 3. Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product
(GDP) 4. Disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services,
among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience
Substantially increase by 2030: 5. Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction
strategies. 6. International cooperation to developing countries through adequate and
sustainable support to complement their national actions for implementation of this Framework.
7. Access to multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) and disaster risk information and assessments
RECONSTRUCTION
RECOVERY RESPONSE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT Post Disaster
CRISIC MANAGEMENT
MITIGATION
PREPAREDNESS PREDICTION and EARLY WARNING
Pre Disaster Protec?on
RISK MANAGEMENT
Disaster Management
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PERGESERAN PARADIGMA
Sumber: Pribadi, 2012
PERUBAHAN SISTEM PB DI INDONESIA
SISTEM LAMA SISTEM BARU
Dasar Hukum Bersifat sektoral Berlaku umum dan mengikat seluruh departemen, masyarakat dan lembaga non pemerintah
Paradigma Tanggap darurat Mitigasi, tanggap darurat, rehabilitasi dan rekonstruksi
Lembaga Bakornas PB, Satkorlak dan Satlak
BNPB, BPBD PROPINSI, BPBD Kab/Kota
Peran Masyarakat Terbatas Melibatkan masyarakat secara aktif
Pembagian Tanggung Jawab
Sebagian besar pemerintah pusat
Tanggung jawab pemerintah pusat, propinsi dan kabupaten
Perencanaan Pembangunan
Belum menjadi bagian aspek perencanaan pembangunan
Rencana Aksi Nasional Pengurangan Resiko Bencana (RAN PRB)
• Rencana Penanggulangan Bencana (RPB)
• Rencana Aksi Daerah Pengurangan Resiko Bencana (RAD PRB)
Pendekatan Mitigasi Kerentanan Analilsa resiko (menggabungkan antara kerentanan dan kapasitas)
Forum kerjasama antar pemangku kepentingan
Belum ada National Platform (akan)
Provincial Platform (akan)
Alokasi Anggaran Tanggung jawab pemerintah pusat
Tergantung pada tingkatan bencana
Pedoman Penanggulangan Bencana
Terpecah dan bersifat sektoral
Mengacu pada pedoman yang dibuat oleh BNPB dan BPBD
Keterkaitan Dengan Tata Ruang
Belum menjadi aspek Aspek bencana harus diperhitungkan dalam penyusunan tata ruang
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KOMPONEN SISTEM NASIONAL PB
Sumber: BNPB, 2010
Disaster Risk Reduction Ingredient
RISK HAZARD VULNERABILITY
CAPACITY x
=
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Assessing Tsunami Risk
Is your coast prone to tsunamis ?
Are your communi?es vulnerable?
Are your communi?es Properly Prepared?
What is the tsunami risk to your communi?es ?
1. Hazard
2. Vulnerability
3. Capacity
Assessing and Managing Tsunami Risk
How to improve your Preparedness for tsunamis
How to Mi?gate the tsunami risk ?
Is your coast prone To tsunamis ?
Are your communi?es vulnerable?
Are your communi?es Properly Prepared?
What is the tsunami risk to your communi?es ?
1
2 high medium low no
Risk
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Mozambique Risk Index (Multi Hazard Except Tsunami)
INFORM 2015 Risk Index § The INFORM model adopts 3 aspects
of vulnerability reflected in the UNISDR definition. 1. Aspects of physical exposure and
physical vulnerability are integrated in the hazard & exposure dimension
2. Aspect of fragility of the socio-economic system becomes INFORM's vulnerability dimension
3. Aspect of lack of resilience to cope and recover is treated under the lack of coping capacity dimension.
§ Index for Risk Management 2015 (INFORM 2015) - Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission- http://www.inform-index.org
A Introduction
I Institutional Risk Assessment and Management within a DRR Framework
Assessing your tsunami risk (B-‐E)
Reducing your tsunami risk (F-‐H)
G Reducing your risk by strategic management
H Improving your preparedness for tsunamis
H.2 Early Warning Systems
H.4 Risk Transfer
D Assessing your preparedness
C Assessing your vulnerability
E Evaluating your tsunami risk
B Assessing the tsunami hazard
Tsunami Risk Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction
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§ Knowing the potential for a tsunami to impact the country’s coast • Earthquake Source for Tsunami (Local, Mid-Distant, or Far
Field) • Other potential source of Tsunami • Regional Tsunami Hazard Information
§ Assessing the likelihood of a tsunami impact on the country’s shore • Evidence (historical and geological)
§ Estimating the physical effect of tsunami impact on the country’s shore • Modeling of tsunami sources (Propagation, inundation)
§ Develop Local Tsunami Hazard Map • Based on selected / representatives scenario
1. Understanding Tsunami Hazard
Is Your Coast Prone to Tsunami ?
§ Define the geographical scale and limits of the assessment: 1:250,000 up to 1:25,000 or 1:5,000
§ Define the dimension of vulnerability approach (Social, Physical, Economic, Environment, etc.)
§ Create an inventory and exposure database of people and their supporting systems.
§ Identify levels of vulnerability for specified tsunami hazard scenario(s) and required response times for evacuation.
§ Determine the losses caused by a tsunami impact event § Develop vulnerability map(s) and reports of the area.
2. Assessing Vulnerability
Are Your Communities Vulnerable ?
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DISASTER
HAZARDS
Hazard Sources
VULNERABILITY HAZARD
Dynamic Pressure
Dynamic Pressure
Main Trigger
Main Trigger
Main Trigger
PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY
DISASTER
• Physic • Non-physic R = H x V
R = H x V / C • Politic System • Economic Policy
• Strength • Weakness • Opportunity • Threat
§ Are there any early warning system, how effective is it? Identify and appraise weaknesses in early warning systems and responses.
§ Appraise if the response to a tsunami timely and efficient. § Are there any community based disaster preparedness established
within the community at risk § Identify and appraise the condition of vertical evacuation shelters
and evacuation routes. § Estimate the time required for the population to reach shelters and
safe areas. § Assess the application of risk transfer mechanisms which would
facilitate post-impact recovery i.e. insurance scheme established?
3. Assessing Capacity or Preparedness
Are Your Communities Properly Prepared ?
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§ Are early warning procedures robust and effective?
§ Are warnings reaching those at risk who need them?
§ Is there enough time for people to reach safe areas located inland? § Will people evacuate to shelters/safe areas when tsunami warning is
issued? § Are evacuation shelters and safe areas really safe? § Are exercises conducted regularly?
Early warning system à how effective ?
A Tsunami Early Warning System needs to be regularly tested to ensure not only its technical operability but also the awareness of people at risk of how it operates and how they should react to a warning.
• Do you have a 24/7 facility and staff on duty for receiving tsunami alert messages TSP or NTWC ? • Are communiRes at risk able to receive warnings at any Rme of day or night? • Does early warning system have specific procedures (SOP) to ensure that warnings reach groups with
a higher degree of vulnerability – children, the elderly, women, difable people? • Does early warning system have procedures (SOP) to ensure that warnings reach those with large
numbers of people congregate – commercial areas, bus and train staRons, public markets, etc.? • Does early warning system have procedures to ensure that warnings reach indigenous groups? • Are warnings issued in languages that are easily understood by those at risk?
LOCAL AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES
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Ironic Panic shown by Banda Aceh people tried to go to safer place (kompas.com) none going to ver?cal evacua?on shelter
April 11
, 2012
in Band
a Aceh
Tsunami Warnin
g System in Pl
ace, Risk
Assessment a
nd DM in Pl
ace, Ver?ca
l
Evacua?on
in Place, b
ut …..
§ The outer-rise earthquake on 11 April, 2012, triggered activation of tsunami warning system in Indonesia. A warning was issued to the public by NTWC within five to 12 min, according to SOP. The national media also broadcast the warning.
§ The reaction of communities varied:
• In Banda Aceh, which was affected by the 2004 tsunami, communities fled in panic away from the sea, as shown in the photo.
• In Padang, West Sumatra, a lot of communities without direct experience of a tsunami refused to evacuate, though they did admit to receiving warning messages by media, community radio network, or siren
§ Provincial government in West Sumatra decided not to activate their siren, because of uncertainty as to whether a tsunami would be generated and since their popular education made no mention of an outer-rise scenario for triggering evacuation orders.
§ This particular event vividly demonstrated how communities and local government can make different and unpredictable choices in responding to real events, compared to drills and exercises.
§ Taking account of social behaviour in evacuation and recovery planning à explain in the next session
§ Assess risk for each dimension of vulnerability in respect of a tsunami scenario with a defined probability.
§ Develop risk maps covering possible scenarios as well as existing conditions of a designated coastal areas (different scale) covering each of the different dimensions of vulnerability.
§ Communicate the risk assessment outputs to all levels involved in the coastal management process. The assessments are vital inputs to policy-making, determining the nature and level of response for risk reduction within the coastal management plan.
4. Analyzing the Risk
What is the Tsunami Risk to your community ?
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Multi-Hazard Tsunami Risk Scenario …
Example: Tsunami Scenario
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Key Output of Risk Assessment
§ assessments of risk for each dimension of vulnerability (or sector of development) in respect of a tsunami scenario with a defined probability;
§ risk maps covering future scenarios as well as existing conditions produced for the designated coastal areas, whether at the regional or the local scale, covering each of the different dimensions of vulnerability (or each development sector) for the specified tsunami scenario(s); and
§ effective communication of risk assessment outputs to all levels involved in the coastal management process.
§ The assessments are vital inputs to policy-making, determining the nature and level of response for risk reduction within the coastal management plan.
1. Reducing your risk by strategic management ü Confirm temporal and geographical scales and limits of assessment. ü Review options for strategic risk reduction. ü Consider a hybrid approach to response measures. ü Incorporate other coastal management goals in response. ü Apply decision-analysis tools in management process. ü Involve the public in decision-making processes.
§ Example of mitigation ü Using natural and artificial structural protection à mangrove, coastal
pines tree etc. ü Sea wall ü Building codes to reduce physical vulnerability of infrastructure
5. Tsunami Risk Reduction 1. Reducing your risk by strategic management
§ Strategic management options for tsunami risk reduction balance social and economic pressures against environmental considerations, including sustainability and appropriateness to the scale of the management area.
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Structural Mitigation
Fudai
Taro
High Water
Seawall
Shoreline
1. Land-use planning including development ‘setback’ 2. Built Back Better in Recovery Planning 3. Pre vs. Post Disaster Recovery Planning 4. Risk Transfer mechanism: Insurance
2. Improving your preparedness for tsunami
Development setback line
Shoreline
High water
X Retreat from shoreline
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Otsuchi – Iwate Prefecture
Review PR KRB di Indonesia Dokumen Kementerian ATR
HarkunR P. Rahayu, PhD IABI Ikatan Ahli Kebencanaan Indonesia
Launching dan Lokakarya Penataan Ruang Kawasan Rawan Bencana di Indonesia, Kementerian ATR, Jakarta 1-‐2 Agustus, 2016
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Dokumen Penataan Ruang Kawasan Rawan Bencana– Kementrian ATR
32
What is the Preparedness?
RECOVERY PLAN: - Recovery - Rehabilitation - Reconstruction
MITIGATION PLAN
EWS
Update
REHABILITATION & RECONSTRUCTION PREVENTION & MITIGATION
EMERGENCY RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS
Rapid Assessment
Risk Assessment
RECOVERY OPERATION PLAN CONTINGENCY
PLAN
DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN
Situa-on: During & Post Disaster
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Situa-on: Post Disaster
Damage Assessment
Situa-on: No Disaster
Situa-on: Poten-al Disaster
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Kebutuhan ER Plan (I)
§ Logistic management (regional atau nasional): • Warehouse à safe area or close to disaster
area? • Logistic distribution chainà akomodasi mitigsi
parameter
Trend RR Plan (II)
§ Pre-disaster Recovery Plan § Post disaster Recovery Plan
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Kebutuhan dan Tantangan Pencegahan dan Mitigasi (III)
§ P&M vs. Economic parameter dalam perencanaan tata ruang
§ Kawasan CBD vs mitigasi learning dari Kec Padang Barat
Kebutuhan dan Tantangan Preparedness Plan (IV)
§ Contingency Plan à Operation Plan § Early Warning System & Evacuation Plan § Disaster Management Organization &
supporting infrastructure (EOC and SOPs)
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Evacuation Planning
1 Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) 1. SOPs for Near Field Tsunami 2. SOPs for Mid/Regional Field Tsunami 3. SOPs for Far Field (Distant) Tsunami
2 Tsunami Evacuation Planning 1. Tsunami Risk Assessment in the context of Evacuation
Planning 2. Evacuation Route - Planning 3. Vertical Evacuation Shelter – Planning and Design 4. Permanent Evacuation Shelter – Planning and Design 5. Tsunami Signage
3 Tsunami Exercise
Evacua?on Route Map
Network Analysis (ArcGIS)
Informa?on of Disaster Model
Data Road Networks: 1. Exis?ng condi?on
of road networks 2. Road capacity
Data of Evacua?on Loca?on
Informa?on: Land Use
Pa^ern of People Movement During Disaster: 1. O-‐D Matrix 2. Travel Time 3. Mode of Evacua?on 4. Route of movement
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CHALLENGES
…as a maritime country, Indonesia should assert itself
as the World Maritime Axis..
1st Pillar: Rebuild Indonesia’s mari?me culture 2nd Pillar: Maintain and manage sea resources with a focus on establishing sovereignty over sea-‐based food products
4th Pillar: Through mari?me diplomacy, Indonesia must end the sources of conflict at sea 5th Pillar: As a country that is the bridge between two oceans, Indonesia is obligated to build its mari?me defense power
3rd Pillar: Priori?ze infrastructure and mari?me connec?vity development by building sea tolls and deep sea ports while also improving the shipping industry, logis?cs and mari?me tourism
WAY
FORWARD
Sumber: Wisnu Widjaja (BNPB)
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Thank you
Harkunti P. Rahayu, Ph.D. Chair WG1 ICG Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung Institute of Technology [email protected] and [email protected]