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2007 ANNUAL REPORT
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One – The Public Sector Group of Funds (the ‘One Funds’) is operated jointly by Local Authority Services Limited (LAS) and The CHUMS Financing Corporation, wholly owned subsidiaries of The Association of Municipalities of Ontario and The Municipal Finance Officers’ Association of Ontario, respectively. The purpose of the One Funds is to pool investment funds from a number of participating municipalities, with each of the various pools being managed by a professional fund manager. The large size of each fund allows fixed costs (i.e. legal, accounting, reporting), to be spread over a much larger base than any one participant could achieve independently. For example, as transaction costs are generally billed on sliding scales, with the One Funds having higher values for each single transaction, the resultant commission percentages are lower than an individual municipality could realize, and the cost to the participating investors is less.
Through participation with the One Funds, Ontario municipalities receive investment advantages that may not be available to them should they choose to operate their investment portfolios independently. Those advantages include:
• Competitivereturns • Netofinvestmentmanagementfees • Netofcustodial/recordkeepingexpenses • Netofadministrative/accountingfees
• Oversightbymunicipalfinanceofficialsfrombothlargeandsmallmunicipalities • OneFundsAdvisoryCommittee • CHUMSandLASBoardofDirectors
• Guaranteedregulatorycompliance
• Enhancedreturnsfromeconomiesofscalepurchasesandoperation
• Lowcostaccesstoprofessionalfundmanagementandlegaladvice
• Reducedriskthrough • Diversification • Peercommitteeoversight • Technicalexpertisefrom3rdpartyconsultant
• FlexibilityandLiquidity • Quickandeasyinvestmentandredemptionprocess
• Professionalaccountingandperformancereportingofyourinvestmentactivity
• Accesstoallinvestmentaccountsthroughapasswordprotectedwebsite • Accountbalancesupdatedandposteddaily • MonthlyStatements • Monthlyfundperformanceindicators
About the one Funds
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• Canada’s economy has bottomed out and won’t drop into a recession even though the United States’ easily could, noted Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge. While Canada will officially escape recession according to the central bank forecast, exports and financial markets will still face substantial pain because of the spill over from the U.S. sub-prime meltdown. “There’s a lot more adjustment still to come in financial markets”.1
• AleadingU.S.economisthasmovedovertothedarkside.DavidRosenberg,investmentgiant MerrillLynch’schiefeconomistforNorthAmerica,hasissuedawarningthattheU.S.isheadingfor the worst consumer-driven recession since 1980, despite aggressive interest rate easing by the FederalReserveBoardanddespiteafederalfiscalstimuluspackageheestimateswilllikelycomeinat about $175-billion.2
• 2007waschallengingforinvestorsduetothevolatilityofequitymarkets,seriousproblemswithAsset BackedCommercialPaperandtheassociatedliquiditycrisisandawideningofcreditspreadscharged on commercial debt.
Withamyriadof“crashandburn”storiesin2007andthegloomy2008outlook,theOneFundshadsomevery good news stories:
• InJanuary,2007theOneEquityFundwaslaunched.Thefirstinvestmentsinthefundreturned 10.88%fortheyear.ByDecember31theFundbalancewasinexcessof$31M.TheOneEquity Fund is a direct response to new investment powers granted to the One Funds by the Ontario government.
• TheOneMoneyMarketFundreturned4.39%for2007exceedingthereturngeneratedbybank primeless1.75%by4basispoints.
• TheOneMoneyMarketFundheldnoassetbackedsecuritiesandaccordinglytooknoloss whentheissueunraveledinAugust2007.TheOneBondFundcontinuestohaveasmall positioninassetbackedsecuritiesbutonlythosethatarebanksponsored,leavingno investmentvalueatrisk.
• 2007year-endBondFundvaluesweremarginallyhigherthanthatof2006andwithincreasedreturns itisexpectedthatfundinvestmentwillincreasein2008.
TotalOneFundinvestmentatDecember31,2007wasup$7Myear-over-yearcomparedtoDecember31,2006.Balancedecreasesof$25MintheMoneyMarketFundwereoffsetbythe$31MnowinvestedintheEquityFundand$1MmorethanDecember31,2006intheBondFund.Averagemonthlybalancesat2007yearendhavetheMoneyMarketFunddown$26Mfrom2006andtheBondFunddown$10M.Thisisagainoffsetbyanaverage$26MintheEquityFundfor2007.Figure1illustratesOneFundBalancesover2006and2007.
2007 overview - the MArket
1Scoffield,Heather,TheGlobeandMail,January25,20082Partrige,John,TheGlobeandMail,January22,2008
Figure 1: Comparative One Fund Balances 2006 through 2007 ($’s Millions)
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Figure2,comparesmonth-endOneFundsbalancesforthelastthreeyearsofoperationtotheaveragemonth-endbalancesforthemostrecent7yearsofoperation.ThethreeoutlyingvaluesinSeptember-November2005periodaretheresultofaonetimesingleMoneyMarketdepositofapproximately$200M.TheaveragemonthlybalanceintheOneFundsfor2007was$359M,down$10Mfrom2006andsome$20Moffthesevenyearmonthlyaverage.
Figure 2: Total One Fund Balances* Average is over most recent seven years.
Table1,illustratesthenumberofmunicipalitiesparticipatingineachoftheOneFundsofferings,thenumberofactiveaccounts,andtheaveragemunicipaldepositinanyoftheindividualfunds.Approximately25%ofOntario’s445municipalitieshavedepositswiththeOneFunds.AsOneFundreturnscontinuetoimproveagainstalternativeinvestments,staffwillcontinueeffortstoattractalargerpercentageofOntariomunicipalitiestoparticipate.
Table1:OneFundsProfile-December31,2007
(Balancesin$millions) MoneyMarket Bond EquityParticipants 68 58 8Accounts 115 111 13AverageBalance/Participant $2.8 $2.1 $4.0
Balance $188.2 $123.1 $31.6
Fund bAlAnces And PArticiPAtion
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Tables2,3and4,showthetotalfunddepositsbrokendownaccordingtothesizeoftheindividualmunicipalinvestment in that fund. As has been the case for many years, deposit sizes in the One Funds vary considerably. In each of the funds, there are small municipal investments in the tens of thousands to very large deposits in the tens of millions.
Thepopulationoftheparticipatingmunicipalityinthefundsseemstohavelittlecorrelationtothebalancetheymaintain.AtDecember2007,atownwithapopulationofapproximately1,000had$2.8MintheOneMoneyMarketFund,andasecondmunicipalitywithasimilarpopulationhad$2.2MintheOneBondFundatthesametime.Atownofwithanapproximatepopulationof6,000participatesintheEquityFund.
Table2:MoneyMarketInvestmentbyMunicipalDepositatDec31,2007Investment Municipal TotalDeposit Avg.Deposit %ofTotal
Participants inRange inRange DepositLessthan$100K 19 $497,700 $26,195 0.26%$100Kto$500K 18 $4,475,484 $248,638 2.38%$500Kto$1M 9 $6,829,317 $758,813 3.63%$1Mto$5M 13 $33,205,593 $2,554,276 17.64%Greaterthan$5M 9 $143,203,400 $15,911,489 76.09%
Totals 68 $188,211,494 100.00%
Table3:BondFundInvestmentbyMunicipalDepositatDec31,2007Investment Municipal TotalDeposit Avg.Deposit %ofTotal
Participants inRange inRange DepositLessthan$100K 7 $210,613 $30,088 0.17%$100Kto$500K 25 $4,745,102 $189,804 3.86%$500Kto$1M 6 $3,962,261 $660,377 3.22%$1Mto$5M 12 $27,406,004 $2,283,834 22.27%Greaterthan$5M 8 $86,746,790 $10,843,349 70.49%
Totals 58 $123,070,770 100.00%
Table4:EquityFundInvestmentbyMunicipalDepositatDec31,2007Investment Municipal TotalDeposit Avg.Deposit %ofTotal
Participants inRange inRange DepositLessthan$100K 1 $34,844 $34,844 0.11%$100Kto$500K 0 $500Kto$1M 1 $531,029 $531,039 1.68%$1Mto$5M 4 $9,914,765 $2,478,691 31.34%Greaterthan$5M 2 $21,158,581 $10,579,291 68.70%
Totals 8 $31,639,219 100.00%
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InJanuaryof2007,theMoneyMarketbenchmarkmovedfromtheScotiaMcLeod30DayT-BillIndexplus19basispointstotheScotiaMcLeod182DayT-BillIndexplus19basispoints.ItwastheconsensusthatlengtheningthebenchmarkwouldmorecloselyreflecttheinvestmentpatterninthefundandallowthemanagerstoattaingreaterreturnsforOneFundsinvestors.AtthesametimeMcLeanBuddenwasalsochosentoreplaceTDAssetManagementastheOneMoneyMarketFundmanager.
Throughout2007,McLeanBudden,theOneMoneyMarketFundmanager,hascontinuedtoincreasetheaveragedurationofthesecuritiesheldinthefundtoreachthe182daybenchmarkdurationtarget.Inlengtheningthetargetduration,theintentionwastomorecloselytrackthebankprimerateless1.75%.Generally,onlythelargestofOntariomunicipalitiesreceivebankprimeless1.75%ontheirshorttermdeposits.Smallermunicipalitiesusuallyreceivebankprimeless1.85%orless.Accordingly,anysustainedMoneyMarketFundreturnthatiscompetitivewiththebankratesisveryattractiveformanymunicipalities.
AtDecember31,2007theaveragedurationoftheMoneyMarketFundwas237days.Thisexceedsthe182daybenchmarkdurationbutiswellwithinthemaximumdurationlimitssetoutintheinvestmentguidelinesfortheFund.WithanAugust2007annualizedmonthlyreturnofnear7%andaNovemberannualizedreturnof5.27%,theFundhasreachedthegoalofprimeless1.75%.Figure3showscomparativeannualizedmonthlyreturnsfortheOneMoneyMarketFundaswellasprimeless1.75%and1.85%
Table5comparesthevalueofa$100,000investmentmadeintheOneMoneyMarketFundonJanuary1,2006,and2007,totheBankPrimeless1.75%and1.85%.
Money MArket Fund PerForMAnce
Table5:Valueof$100,000InvestedJanuary1atDecember312006 OneMMVsPrime$ OneMMVsPrime%
One MM $103,791 Prime-1.75% $104,062 $(271) -0.26%Prime-1.85% $103,962 $(171) -0.16%2007
One MM $104,392 Prime-1.75% $104,354 $38 0.04%Prime-1.85% $103,254 $138 0.13%
Figure 3: Comparative One Money Market Fund Returnsto Bank Prime less 1.75% and 1.85%
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Figures 4 and 5 show year-to-date (YTD) monthly accumulated investment values for $100,000 made on January 1st of 2006 and 2007 in the One Money Market Fund and the bank prime less 1.75% and 1.85% alternative.
Figure 4: 2006 One Money Marketvs. Bank Prime Returns
Figure 5: 2007 One Money Marketvs. Bank Prime Returns
“Over the next two years 1.8 million more sub-prime mortgages, those aimed at riskier borrowers, are expected to reset at higher interest rates, prompting many experts to say the worst is yet to come. It is expected that as many as 1.2 million of the loans will go into foreclosure…”
Wade,Paul;TheGlobeandMail,January19,2008
Despiteallthesub-primeandassetbackedsecurityissuesandgeneraleconomicvolatilitythroughthesecondhalfof2007,theOneMoneyMarketFundoutperformedboththefundbenchmarksandothercomparatorscommonlyusedtogaugefundperformance.For2007theOneMoneyMarketreturnwas4.39%whilebankprimeless1.75%returned4.35%.
Through2007theglobaleconomydealtwithliquidityissues,ofamagnitudenot experienced in recent history, as a result of an unwillingness of creditors torefinanceassetbackedsecuritiesastheybecamedue.Investorsinthesesecuritiesthathadexpectedtogettheirinvestmentsbackwithinterestin60to90daysnowfacelosingportionsoftheirprincipaland/orwaitingyearstogetallorpartoftheoriginalinvestmentback.ThesesecuritypoolswereladenwithmillionsofU.S.sub-primemortgagesthathadorweretoresetratesthrough2007andinto2008.
Thecreditcrisisthatbeganinthelatermonthsof2007continuestounwindasmanyofthelargeglobalbankinginstitutionsarereportingextraordinarylossesasaresultoftheirexposuretoassetbackedsecurities.Asaresulttheinterestratespreads(theratesinexcessoftreasurybillratesthatbanksandcorporationspaytosecureshorttermdebt),haverisensharply.Thatsharpchangeincreditcostsallowedexceptionallate2007returnsfortheOneMoneyMarket.Astheseconditionscontinuetoexistin2008,theOneMoneyMarketFundisexpectedtooutperformtheshorttermbankratesofferedtoOntariomunicipalities.
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bond Fund PerForMAnce
AsillustratedinFigure6,2006and2007havebeentheworstperformanceyearsfortheOneBondFundsinceitsinception,butreturnsrealizedinthelatermonthsof2007suggestthattheFundperformanceisbecomingmorefavorable.ReducedreturnscanbeexplainedbythefactthatinterestrateshadbeenontherisesinceAprilof2004–thistrendendedinlate2007–andasthevalueofabondreactsinverselytochangesininterestratestheperformance results are consistent with what one would should have expected.
WithmanypredictingaU.S.recessionin2008,itisexpectedthattheU.S.FederalReservewilleaseinterestrates,inanefforttolifttheeconomy.Atthetimeofthisreport,weknowtheeasingofU.S.interestrateshasbegun.Accordingly, there is the impetus for similar interest rate easing in Canada and a rebounding of bond yields which shouldbenefittheOneBondFundreturns.
As has been stressed in past One Fund materials, the investment objective and the relative investment time horizon are extremely important concepts in dictating how successful investment plans are in achieving the original goals. TherecommendedinvestmenthorizonfortheOneBondFundisataminimum2.5to4years.Figures7and8illustratethisconcept.Theaverage2yearreturnsbegintoslipbelowtheBankofCanadaless1.75%returnsasearlyasFebruary2006butthisdoesnotoccurforthreeyearOneBondReturnsuntilFebruary2007.Further,thedropbelowtheBankratereturnsfortheOneBondreturnsismuchmorepronouncedforthetwoyearreturnperiodsthanitisforthethreeyearperiods.Forthe23monthswheretheOneBondFundtwoyearreturnlaggedtheBank,theannualizedmonthlydifferencewas0.63%,whereasthelagbelowtheBankreturnsforthreeyearOneBondreturnsaveragedonly0.26%.Clearly,thelongerinvestmenthorizonalleviatesmuchofthevolatilityofthereturnwhen the municipality has invested with an appropriate time horizon given the type of investment.
Figure 6: One Bond Fund Average One Year Return for Months Ending in the Year
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Tosummarize,OneBondFundperformancehasimprovedin2007andwithstrongfundmanagementandeconomic conditions supporting more robust bond performance, the returns are expected to continue improving into2008–withagoalofreturningtohistoricallevels.
Figure 7: One Bond vs. Bank of Canada less 1.75%Two year Annualized Returns
(months ending January 2002 through December 2007)
Jan 02Jul 02
Jan 03Jul 03
Jan 04Jul 04
Jan 05Jul 05
Jan 06Jul 06
Jul 07Jan 07
Figure 8: One Bond vs. Bank of Canada less 1.75%Three year Annualized Returns
(months ending January 2002 through December 2007)
Jan 02Jul 02
Jan 03Jul 03
Jan 04Jul 04
Jan 05Jul 05
Jan 06Jul 06
Jul 07Jan 07
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equity Fund PerForMAnce
InitsinitialyearofoperationOneFundsstaffissatisfiedwiththeEquityFundreturnandparticipation.Witha number of other municipalities having expressed interest in participation, the future prospects for this Fund areencouraging.Figure9showsthegenerallyincreasingtrendinthefundbalancethroughout2007.Theminordownwardswingatyearendisafunctionofdecreasedequityvaluesasopposedtoanywithdrawalsfromparticipatingmunicipalities.TodatetherehavebeennowithdrawalsfromtheEquityFund–thisisreassuringastheappropriateinvestmenthorizonintheOneEquityFundis5to10years.
Figure 10: One Equity Fund vs. Benchmark Returns(inception to December 31, 2007)
AtDecember31,2007theEquityFundhadoutperformedboththefundbenchmarkandtheS&PTSXcompositeandS&PTSX60indices.The10.88%YTDincreaseintheOneEquityFundoutperformedthebenchmarkby3.11%.SeeFigure10.
Figure11,showsOneEquityFundcumulativereturnsfrominceptionascomparedtotheTSXandTSX60pricesindexperformanceoverthesametimeperiod.TheOneEquityFundended2007up10.88%(netoffees)fortheyear,morethan3.7%aheadoftheTSXincreaseof7.16%forthesameperiod.
Figure 9: 2007 One Equity Fund Balances
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
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Further,Table6showsa2007monthbymonthnumericsummaryoftheOneEquityFundcomparedtoboththeBenchmark,andTSXCompositeandTSX60Indices.ForthefourmonthsthattheTSXCompositeexperienceddeclinesin2007,theOneEquityFundoutperformedinthreeofthosemonths.TheOneEquityFundwasdesignedtobelessvolatilethantheTSXCompositeandearlyindicationsarethattheFundislessvolatilethanthegeneralmarketasmeasuredbytheTSXComposite.Out-performancecomparedtothebenchmarkisattributabletothe acumen of the Fund Manager, Guardian Capital.
Table6:OneEquityFundNumericSummaryJan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
OneEquityFund 4.09 -0.17 0.36 2.22 4.04 -0.73 -0.51 0.56 2.02 3.74 -5.00 0.66
OneEquityBenchmark 2.31 0.43 0.25 1.74 4.33 0.07 -1.01 0.05 2.02 3.61 -5.50 -0.43
S&P/TSXComposite 1.20 0.30 1.20 2.10 5.00 -0.80 -0.13 -1.29 2.50 3.91 -6.22 1.34
S&P/TSX60 0.80 -0.40 1.40 1.80 5.30 -0.40 -0.08 -0.58 3.20 4.00 -5.78 1.51
Anexcerptfromthe4thQuarterreportoftheOneEquityFundsmanager,GuardianCapitalfollows.Theentirereport can be found on the One Funds website at www.onefunds.net.
Figure 11: One Equity Return vs. TSX Price Indices (inception to December 31, 2007)
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excerPt FroM GuArdiAn cAPitAl lP 4th quArter rePort 2007one Funds equity Fund MAnGer
Thefourthquarterof2007wascharacterizedbycontinuedvolatility,whichinturnwastheresultofescalatinguncertaintyinglobalcreditmarkets.Eventsinthethirdquarterwerecloudedbytheappearanceoftheinitialcracksinthefinancialsystemledbyproblemsinthecommercialpapermarkets.Majorfinancialinstitutionssubsequentlyannouncedduringthefourthquarter,sizableexposurestocreditderivativesandrelatedbalancesheetcharges.AlthoughCanadianbanksarecharacterizedbyrelativelystrongbalancesheets,someU.S.bankshavetakenstepstostrengthentheirrespectivebalancesheetsandreceivedcapitalinfusionsfromforeignsovereignfunds.Thesedevelopmentsservedtounderminetheconfidenceinfinancialmarkets,notwithstandingthepositiveeffectonbankbalancesheets.
Economicdatareleasedduringthequartersuggestthattheglobaleconomy,inparticulartheUnitedStates,hasslowed.CentralBanksinCanada,theUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomrespondedwithinterestratereductions.Notwithstandingtheswitchinmonetarypolicyandincreasedliquidityinthefinancialsystem,moststockmarketswereweakerduringthequarter.
Mostcommoditypricesfellsharplyduringthequarterwiththeexceptionofgold(COMEX),oil(WTI)andnaturalgas(NYMEX).
outlookOurstrategyremainsdefensive.Wecannotassesstheextentofthesub-primecontagion.Itisconceivablethat financial institutions will experience further balance sheet deterioration through increased credit defaults and/ortransferringoffbalancesheetassetsontotheirrespectivebalancesheets.Forwardgrowthislikelytobefurtherrestrainedasbanksexittheoffbalancesheetlinesofbusiness.
HousingmarketscontinuetoweakenintheUnitedStatesandhavenowsoftenedinotherglobalmarkets.TakingalookattheUnitedStates,employmentdataislookingweaker.Consumerspendingissoftandconsumerconfidenceiseroding.Corporateprofitshavepeakedandarestartingtodeclineonaquarterlysequentialbasis.Developingnations,includingMexico,SingaporeandMalaysiaarestartingtoshowsignsofeconomic softness as well. India has recently experienced a slowdown in loan growth.
Although the developing economies have lagged in the economic slowdown, the U.S. economy is now positionedtobenefitfromtheweakerU.S.dollarandlowerinterestrates.TheU.S.economycouldmoveintoarecoverystageiftheunwindingoftheexcessesinthecreditandhousingmarketscanbemanaged.ThereisapossibilityofaneweconomicstimuluspackagefromtheU.S.Government.TheU.S.stockmarkettypicallydoes well in election years.
PortFolio strAGeyWeareslightlyunderweightedinEnergy.Reflectingourcontinuedcautiousstance,weareoverweightedinthemoredefensivesectorsincludingTelecommunicationServicesandConsumerDiscretionary(nonhousing/auto). We are maintaining our position in Industrials in anticipation of renewed global expansion.
Wewillcontinuetomaintainaprudentlydiversifiedandqualityportfoliohowever;thenextfewmonthswillbepivotalforthestockmarketastheeconomiccycleplaysout.Thestockmarketwilldiscountarecoveryin the United States well before it occurs. It is our intention to gradually shift the portfolio towards a more aggressive stance as our comfort level begins to increase.
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2008 lookinG AheAd
PSABrequirementsforthemunicipalsectorandresultantcapitalassetmanagementprogramswillpresent•anopportunityformunicipalitiestoengageinlonger-termfiscal/capitalplanning.StaffcontinuetobelievethattheOneFundsprogramofferssolutionstoensurethatmunicipalitiesarenotasreliantonthemunicipal tax base for future capital projects.
MarketconditionssuggestthattheMoneyMarketFundshouldcontinuetomatchorsurpassBankprime•less1.75%in2008.StaffarelookingtogarnergreatermunicipalparticipationintheMoneyMarketFund, through greater involvement by existing investors or the addition of new municipalities.
EquityFundgrowthwasstrongthrough2007,andthetrendisexpectedtocontinue.Staffareableto•provideinformationtomunicipalitiesastheyamendinvestmentpoliciestoallowforentryintotheEquityFundand/orCorporateBondFund.Contactstaffforassistanceinthisregard.
OpeningtheCorporateBondFundcontinuestobeanissueasseedmoneymustbeinvestedbeforethe•Fundcanbecomeoperational.Becauseoftheinvestmentopportunitycurrentlyavailableinthemarketduetowideningspreads,staffareoptimisticthattheFundwillbecomeoperationalin2008.Contactusfor more information.
BondFundbalancesstabilizedin2007inthe$125Mrange.Yearendbalancesfor2007weremarginally•higherthanthatof2006anditisexpectedthatFundinvestmentwillincreasein2008duetostrongerreturnsaffordedbycurrentmarketconditions.
Individual‘factsheets’forallOneFundsproductsfirstdevelopedinSummer2007,willberegularly•updated and posted to the One Funds website.
‘MeetandGreet’sessionsdeliveredacrosstheprovincein2007werewellreceived.Increasedinvestment•inresponsetothisoutreachhasoccurredandsimilareventsareplannedfor2008.Staytunedfortheannouncement of these events, and plan to attend!
Staffarecommittedtoaccommodatingmostrequestsforpresentationstolocalizedmunicipalgroupsasa•way of providing current information about the One Funds. Contact us to organize a presentation in your area.
StaffplantoprovidedailyunitandpriceindicatorsontherestrictedOneFundswebsiteaccessfor•participatingmunicipalities.Thisenhancementiscurrentlybeingtestedbystaff.
Tofacilitateincreasedinformationandregularupdatesbybothstaffandprofessionalfundmanagers,the•OneFundswebsiteisbeingredevelopedwithanexpectedlaunchofMarch2008.Visitusat
www.onefunds.net.
Attherequestofsomeexistinginvestors,staffwillexaminethedevelopmentofa‘virtual’BalancedFund•in2008.
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TomBradbury,PolicyAdvisor,MFOA JasonHagan,LASProgramCoordinator416-362-9001ext.222 416-971-9856ext.320Alt:905-304-4429 Fax:[email protected] [email protected]