ERITREA
SUDAN
MOLDOVA
PAKISTAN
NIGERIA
YEMEN
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA(PETRONAS)
S. AFRICA
SWEDEN/SWITZ.
UAE
SAUDI ARABIA
FRANCE
INDIA(ONGC
VIDESH)
CHINA (CNPC)
(SINOPEC)
KUWAIT
ENERGY CORRIDOR(PERSIAN GULF OIL)
- 3.3 Million Barrels per day- 4% of Global Daily Consumption
Basin PopulationBasin Population
• Ten Riparian States– Egypt
– Sudan
– Ethiopia
– Uganda
– Rwanda
– Tanzania
– Kenya
– D.R. Congo
– Eritrea
– Burundi
Egypt22%
Burundi2%
Eritea1%
Congo16%
Ethiopia20%Uganda
7%
Rwanda2%
Tanzania10%
Kenya
9%
Sudan11%
CHAD
CAR
ETHIOPIA
DROC
UGANDA
KENYA
LIBYA
UKRAINE
EconomicDysfunction
ResourcesPoorGovernance
M/V FAINA
- Ukranian Owned- Belize Flagged- Destined for Mobassa, Kenya Port
SIRIUS STAR
- Liberian Flagged- Saudi ARAMCO- 2M Barrels / $100M- 2.3% of Global Daily Consumption
NILE(WHITE)(BLUE)
EGYPT - 55.5bcm/yrSUDAN - 18.5bcm/yr
IRRIGATION
EGYPT - 48bcm/yrSUDAN - 46bcm/yr
84bcm/yr 85% BLUE
14% WHITE
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION
- Egypt’s “Historic Rights”- Recognized no other
U.S OILCOMPANIES
C T COOPERATION / “OUR TO
P PRIORITY IS SU
DAN”
President Obama
V.P. Biden
UN - Dr. Susan Rice
Secretary of State Clinton
John Prendergast
Samantha Powers
CPA MILESTONES (Temporary Arrangement)
- Detailed Provisions For Oil Management (Poorly Implimented)- National Census (Power Sharing Based on Census Results)- National/Regional Elections (NLT July ‘09)- Referendum on Self-Determination (2011)
- Abyei Special Administrative Status- “Popular Consultation” (Blue Nile and South Kordofan)
SECURITYPOWER
SHARINGWEALTHSHARING
lio s’naduS fo
%08-56 / rotsevni tsegral s’naduS -
CP
NC / li
O s’anihC fo
%7
Threate
ned W
ar in
1970 RUSSIA
BELARUS
OI L
LIO
REFUGEES/IDPs
WEAPONS
REFUGEES
CPA
ISLAMIZATION
CONFLICT/TENSION
WATER
OIL
PIRACY
OIL FIELD
GoS (NCP)
GoSS (SPLM/A)
GONU
UNAMID
UNMIS
ICC
2008 10 INDICTMENTS FOR WAR CRIMES / CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY / GENOCIDE
Chi
na’s
4th
larg
est f
orei
gn o
il so
urce
SUDAN
- Africa’s largest country- 39.3M population- 57 ethnic groups- 70% Muslim- 20-25% Traditional- 10% Christian- ~ 400 languages- Owes its existence as 1 unit to colonialism
?Independent in 1956?Arab tribes in North well prepared?African tribes in south not well prepared?Involuntary N-S merging
- 1st Civil War 1956 - 1972 (16), ended when South given autonomy and own government
- Oil discovered 1979 (production 1999)- 2nd Civil War 1983 - 2005 (22)
?2M dead?4M IDPs
- CPA (Jan 2005)- Darfur 2003 - Present (5+)- Independant for 52 years (conflict for 43+)- 92.6% export revenue from oil (feeds North’s growth)
U.S
. OIL
INT
ER
ES
TS
EITH
IOPIA
N IS
LAM
IC JIH
AD
ER I TREAN ISLAMIC JIHAD
CAMEROON
– Lack of Development- Forced Islam and Shari’a- Arabization of Education- Confiscation of Customary Lands- Lack of Representation in Government- Lack of Resource Compensation- Discrimination
STATE DEPARTMENT POLICY(SOUTHERN SUDAN)
- Should be main effort for AFRICOM- Efforts should support a united Sudan - Transform SPLA to deter Northern agression- Accelerate reconstruction and development- Goods and services to the SPLA (PD-22)- Top Three: Capabilities, Weapons Systems, Personnel
BIL
AT
AG
RE
EM
EN
T
TN
ORF
NRETSAE ROF TROPPUS
TN
EM
EE
RG
A T
ALI
B
APC
CP
A
CPA
AP
C
REFUGEES/IDPs
2
16
4
166
10
26
40
44
# 2008 FSI RANKING
HE
RIT
AG
E –
LU
O T
RIB
E
SENATE RESOLUTION 559 – NATO NO FLY
LUO M
IG
RATIO
N
FSI INDICATORS OF INSTABILITY
- Demographic pressures- Refugees and displaced persons- Group grievance- Human flight- Uneven development- Economy- Delegitimization of State- Public services- Human rights- Security apparatus- Factionalized elites- External intervention
ANT D PN OE LIP TE ICD AF LO CN ONOI ST TA IE TR U
C E - N CS
IE E
C S
R / UO
SE
R / R
ET
NE
C F
O E
CNANI
MOD CI MONOCE
DIV
IDE
AN
D R
ULE
TO
CO
N
TROL PERIPHERY
MO AN DG ICNI PK AA SE TP OS RC AI LB IA STR
SA
CANI R FF AA R MKC EA RL SB
Centralized Arabic Islamist Regime (NIF)
“GATEKEEPER STATE”
IRAN
NOI
TA
RE
PO
OC
DE
SA
ER
CNI
1
SO
MA
LIA
VISA ISSUES
Recommended
