NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS Informing collaboration for Decentralised Energy Chris Dunstan & Ed Langham Webinar, 3rd Aug 2016
1. Context: Information for a new era
2. The Project
3. The Maps – live online
4. Future Opportunities
OVERVIEW
CONTEXT
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THE DECENTRALISED ENERGY REVOLUTION HAS BEGUN
TIME OF TRANSFORMATION: CONSUMPTION IS FLAT
isf.uts.edu.au ANNUAL ENERGY FORECAST FOR THE NEM (June 2016 NEFR)
And the RET: Add another ~16,000 GWh p.a. by 2021
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WIND IS VERY VARIABLE…
… AND SO IS SOLAR… (SOLAR PV OUTPUT)
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THE DREADED “DUCK” CURVE Official CAISO “Duck curve”
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NSW MAXIMUM DEMAND – FORECAST FLAT
Source: 2016 AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) (June 2016)
First ever declining long term forecast for max demand…
NSW MINIMUM DEMAND – FORECAST FALLING
Source: 2016 AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) (June 2016)
“minimum demand [shifting] from overnight to near midday ... This is already the case for South Australia” -AEMO
Vic. MINIMUM DEMAND – FORECAST PLUMMETING
Source: 2016 AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) (June 2016) 0
S.A. MINIMUM DEMAND – Less than zero!?
Source: 2016 AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) (June 2016)
0
Demand as Variable as Renewables
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WILDCARDS: CLIMATE POLICY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY • Paris Agreement: To keep global temp. rise "well
below" 2oC & "endeavour to limit" rise to 1.5oC • Net zero emissions by 2050 to 2100
isf.uts.edu.au IEA, World Energy Outlook 2015
“Bridge” Scenario for 2oC
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SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? 1. More variable genera/on 2. Greater geographic diversity 3. Radically shi;ing local supply and demand pa>erns …which means 1. Major changes to price structures required 2. More flexible demand essen<al 3. Local solu<ons essen<al …which means 1. Construc<ve customer-‐u<lity collabora<on is essen<al 2. Regulatory reform essen<al
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ELECTRICITY NETWORKS: LOCATION & TIME CRITICAL
Networks comprise ~43% power bills (nationally)
Network costs are highly location & season specific
Mapping can help identify priority areas for non-network alternatives (Decentralised Energy)
Electricity prices in the NEM (2014-2018)
Source: AEMC, 2015 Residential Electricity Price Trends December 2015, Sydney
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THE CHANGING ELECTRICITY SECTOR
The past Centralised generation Centralised control Demand Forecasting Build least cost infrastructure Little engagement with customers (end users)
The future + Decentralised generation + Decentralised coordination + Demand Management + Support least cost supply & demand side mix → Extensive engagement with customers (& retailers & service providers)
How to deliver a win-‐win for networks (NSPs) and customers?
BeOer informa<on & collabora<on are crucial
Magnetic Island Solar City Project 2007: Rapidly rising demand Leading imminent need for a 3rd undersea cable ($18 million) Invested in efficient lights, energy audits, 200 solar PV systems, 1500 smart meters, etc Cut peak demand 44% below BAU Cut energy by 40% below BAU Deferred new investment >8 years Budget: $30 million (n.b. demonstration project)
http://www.top100experiences.com.au/listing/magnetic-island/ Image credit: Tourism Queensland
ERGON ENERGY: MACKAY CONSTRAINT PROJECT (2013>)
• $36 million proposed investment • 1.4 MVA of load reduction • Deferred capital costs: $1.7 million
in 2014/15 • Used “Network Capacity Incentive
Map” driven by Ergon’s “Develop the Market principle”
Source: DM Outcomes Report, 2014/15
ERGON ENERGY: MACKAY CONSTRAINT PROJECT (2013>)
• Incentive Value: $300/kVA
How can we facilitate this sort of collaborative approach to Decentralised Energy
throughout the NEM?
THE PROJECT
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Where within the electricity network do the most
cost-‐effec3ve DE opportuni3es exist?
How much could DE be worth at these loca3ons?
When are the key years and 3mes of constraint?
To answer these ques3ons, ISF created Network Opportunity Maps
A resource to show where/when to target Renewable Energy and DE technologies & services: • Annually updated through streamlined process • Consistently applied in every (NEM) jurisdiction • Freely available on online platform • (Ultimately) woven into Networks’ Demand Side
Engagement Strategies
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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS
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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS
(+ All Network Businesses in the NEM!)
PROJECT TIMELINE
Sample Maps
(Oct 2015)
1st Full Iteration
(July 2016)
2nd Full Iteration
(Mid 2017)
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2016 distribution data (July) 2016 transmission data (Sept)
WHAT DATA GOES IN?
• All data comes from Network Service Providers • For 2016 Maps: generally as published in 2015 Distribution Annual
Planning Reports, and 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Reports • Proposed network investments (augmentation, some replacement/other) • Cost of capital (WACC), depreciation • NSP demand forecasts for each network asset • Current capacity of lines and substations • Zone substation region boundaries (+ how different assets connect) • Hourly load data (load profiles)
THE MAPS: ONLINE
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ANNUAL DEFERRAL VALUE CALCULATION
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÷
x ( + )
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CASE STUDY: Kangaroo Island • Population: 4300 Peak Demand 7.6 MW Load factor: 46% • Undersea electricity supply cable nearing end of design life • Replacement cable cost: ~$45 million, plus energy purchase from the mainland • SA Power Networks has issued a request for Non Network Options • Diesel standby generation expensive
and difficult to support • Good wind and solar resources • Regulatory and other challenges
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INDICATIVE NON- NETWORK SOLUTION
Illustrative option • 8 MW wind turbines • 4 MW centralised solar PV • 4 MW rooftop PV (50% subsidy) • 3 MW battery storage Ø co-located w solar PV- 70% subsidy
• 21% Energy Efficiency (subsidy @$50/MWh) • 3MW Diesel Rotating UPS /Standby generation
Ø 3% load factor
• (+ option of 5 MW of biomass generation?)
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http://www.australia.com/content/australia/id_id/places/kangaroo-island/jcr:content/hero/image.adapt.1663.medium.jpg
INDICATIVE NON- NETWORK SOLUTION
Outcomes: • Indicative total cost: $50m Ø same as cable (but invested on the Island)
• Additional opex on the island: $1.2m p.a • Annual savings to Kangaroo Is customers: $3m p.a. • Additional generation and REC revenue: $3.8m • 97% Renewable Energy (Bioenergy or more storage for the other 3%?)
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EXAMPLE TIMELINE WITH RIT-D VS NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS
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Investment Decision
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RIT-D Market Activity
Network Opportunity Maps
Market foresight & activity
THE NEXT FRONTIER
It’s exciting but there are more ways to reveal value in the grid… • Non-network opportunities for replacement expenditure
(repex). Requires: • More repex data in the Network Opportunity Maps • Develop and standardise processes for non-network alternatives
for repex investments • Incorporating probabilistic planning principles –
ameliorating risk
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FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES • Additional DE Resource Overlays: A public resource to
match network opportunities with cost effective alternatives to network augmentation: • Other renewables (e.g. bioenergy, PV/storage, EVs) • Other dist. generation (co-/trigeneration etc) • Demand Response • Energy Efficiency
• Addressing other issues such as distributed generation connection capacity, or voltage management
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THANKYOU
Explore the maps: http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/ [click ‘Add data’, ‘Electricity Infrastructure’, ‘Network Opportunities – ISF’]
Reminder: 2016 Transmission Data Update Coming in September!
Ed Langham
Research Principal [email protected] (02) 9514 4971, 0403 820 913
Chris Dunstan
Research Director [email protected]
(02) 9514 4882, 0419 498 434