IP traffic explosion and network neutralityToshiya Jitsuzumi, Dr.
Kyushu University
Moore’s Lawa long-term trend in the history of computing hardware
• Over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
• The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House.
• This trend has continued for more than half a century. Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020. (wikipedia) Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore
Increased traffic in the network
~1
~3
~5
~7
~9
~11
~13
~15
~17
~19
~21
~23
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 Nov. 2011
Nov. 2010
Nov. 2009
Nov. 2008
Nov. 2007
Gbps
Source: MIC (2012)
Congestion in the coredownload
upload
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2551/4114774698_0e6c37e653.jpg
Degraded QoS
Japan (Nov. 2009)
Japan (Jan. 2011)
Japan (Mar.-Apr. 2012)
US (2009, average)
US (2009. median)
UK (May 2010)
Australia (2008Q4)
Ireland (2008)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
25.6%
27.2%
24.0%
51.2%
44.3%
46.0%
65.5%
60.2%
Source: Jitsuzumi (2013), FCC ( 2010 ) , Ofcom ( 2010 ) , and Epitiro ( 2009a, 2009b )
Basis of the problem
Rich contents and applications
Super fast access network
Powerful terminal equipment
ISPs’ core networkInternet backbones
Powerful servers
Framework of the NN problem
Congestion control
Build an optimal capacity
Monopoly leverage
Short-term solution
Long-term solution
How to balance efficiency and equality?
How to determine the capacity?How to finance the investment?
Low barrier to entry
Unique business practices
Natural monopoly
High barriers to entry
Monopoly leverage
How to discipline the market power of network operators?
How to restrain the ISPs with market dominance?
Internet Service Provider
Network Operator
End users
Content Provider
Application Provider
Before introducing NN rules…
http://communities.vmware.com/servlet/JiveServlet/downloadImage/38-17661-25817/bigstock-Competition-concept-5232812.jpg
Any competitive equilibrium or Walrasian equilibrium leads to a Pareto efficient allocation of resources.
Status quo of the ISP market 1
BB access line wholesale market
BB access market
BB ISP market
NTT-east/west
AccessWholesaler
ISP
Service-based
Operators
Facility-basedOperators
NTT-east/west
Structural Separation
Local Loop Unbundling(dark fiber, dry copper, and line-sharing)
ISP
Facility-basedOperators
(telco)
Service-based
Operators
ISP
Facility-basedOperators(cables)
ISP
Local Loop Unbundling (dry copper)
U.S.Japan
78.6%
49.1%
29.1%
13.5%
5.8%
3.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Estimated market share
NTT group Power company Cables
Other telcos Municipalities Others
BB access line wholesale market
BB access market
BB ISP market
NTT Group
Powercos
Other telcos
Cablecos
Others
Municipalities
Estimated market share in Japan
43.6%
36.7%
36.3%
53.9%
53.9%
44.2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Estimated market share
RBOC Cables Others
Estimated market share in the US
RBOCs Cablecos
Others
Status quo of the ISP market 2
Status quo of the ISP market 3
NTT-ISP2050.0yen
Telco-ISP3683.0yen
Vender ISP
3427.7yen
3192.7yen
Cable ISP
4186.5yen
2088.4yen
1752.3yen
1314.1yen
4627.6yen
3096.9yen
3535.8yen
2589.4yen
5009.6yen
4469.5yen
2311.8yen
3245.1yen
2874.2yen
3667.1yen
4050.9yen3067.3yen
Obstacles against the competitive solution 1
• Supply side• No ISP can control the end-to-end QoE.• Positive externality of individual ISP’s effort
• No central authority in the Internet backbone• No bilateral contractual obligation in interconnection• Impact of dynamic routing technology
Local ISP
Content Server
ISP
ISPISP
ISPISPISP
ISP
ISP
The Internet
• Lack of market discipline from the consumer side• Insufficient QoE literacy among end users
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
FTTH, single home
FTTH, apartment
cable, over 100 Mbps
cable, 35-100 Mbps
cable, 20-35 Mbps
cable, up to 20 Mbps
ADSL, over 35 Mbps
ADSL, 20-35 Mbps
ADSL, up to 20 Mbps
average
Download %
self-estimation
As of Dec. 2010
Obstacles against the competitive solution 2
For “effective” competition
http://web.securityinnovation.com/Portals/49125/images/Disclosure.jpg
Advertised speedPrice
+Maximum speed achieved
Average speed Jitters
LatencyPacket lossDown time
ISP ranking