Navigating the Navigating the Numbers:Numbers:
Greenhouse Gas Data Greenhouse Gas Data andand
InternationalInternationalClimate PolicyClimate Policy
COP11December 5, 2005
Climate and Energy ProgramWorld Resources Institute
• Data providers– CDIAC– RIVM – IPCC– IEA– World Bank
– UNDP– U.S. EPA– U.S. EIA– UNFCCC– Houghton
Acknowledgements
• Funding providers• U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global
Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation
Working assumptions: – Information is the first step to solving any problem – Better information → better decisions– “Delivery system” matters
1. CAIT2. Navigating the Numbers report
Data – Policy Linkage
• A web-based information and analysis tool on global
climate change developed by WRI. CAIT includes:– Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus
other policy-relevant data and indicators– Data for 186 countries, plus regions– Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)
• Policy neutral• 4,000 + registered users
Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT)
• Objectives:
– Convey wealth of GHG data in digestible form• Country-level data (Part I)• Sector-level data (Part II)
– Identify policy-relevant insights from the data (Parts I and II)
Navigating the Numbers
• Indicators
– Absolute, per capita, intensity• Time periods
– Present, past, and future trends• Emissions “Context”
– Drivers: GDP, population, fuel mix, efficiency, structure, trade, fossil fuel reserves, etc.
– Socio-economic context: development indicators
Part I: Country-level data
• Organize data: sector, end-use, gas
Part II: Sector-level data
GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Organize data: sector, end-use, gas• Identify and evaluate key sectors
– Absolute, per capita; past and future trends– Sector “context” data:
• Company-level production levels (e.g., iron, aluminum)• Trade flows, investment, MNC presence• GHG measurement and attribution issues• International cooperation assessed across six criteria
Part II: Sector-level data
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Implications
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Implications
Global CO2 Emissions Growth
Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth
% Percent change from 2000
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Implications
Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
Most Countries Contribute Little to GHG Buildup
Top 25: GHG Emissions
PopulationGDP
Top 25: Extreme Diversity: Diversity of Approaches Needed
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty
Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints
Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods
Emissions per Capita: Consensus?
GHG Emissions per Capita
Fuel mix affects CO2 emissionsElectric Power Sector
17%
15%
10%
7%
5%
2%
-6%
-7%
-11%
-12%
-16%-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Ja
pan
Fran
ce
S. K
orea
Ger
man
y
USA UK
Aust
ralia
Indi
a
Cana
da
Chin
a
Russ
ia
Trade affects CO2 emissions
CO2 “Imports”: Change in CO2 emissions if accounting is on the basis of domestic consumption
Population Growth affects CO2 Emission trends
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
• Did not address different “forms” of sectoral cooperation• How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation
– Promote participation– Avoid “leakage”– Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness)
• How conductive to international cooperation? [6 criteria]• Simple grading system: “+” “–” or no grade.
International Sectoral Cooperation
Summary of Sectoral Analysis
• “Sector-only” model is unlikely be effective• Comprehensive agreements can have:
– “Carve outs” [aviation]– Special sectoral provisions [LUCF]– Complementary sectoral agreements
• Analysis helps reveal:– Where to target investment, technology, and policy– Kyoto’s perceived success and failure
Sectoral Cooperation
• Global trends are in the wrong direction• Address GHGs in context of big emitting
countries and sectors– Int’l cooperation, investment, technology
• No single indicator tells a complete story• Data does not point directly toward a solution
– Nature and scale of problem– Diverse national circumstances
Conclusions
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