National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin6 November 2012
OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate
ConsortiumCurrent drought status and how we got here – Pam
Knox, University of Georgia & Victor Murphy, NWSStreamflows and groundwater – Todd Hamill, SERFCReservoirs’ status and projections – Bailey Crane, US
ACESeasonal outlooks – Pam Knox, UGAStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast
Center, NOAASummary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC
Current drought status from Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
7-Day Accumulated Precipitation ending on 11/5/2012
Cumulative Percent of Normal
Past 30 days
Since Jan. 1
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
Departure from normal for 24-month accumulated precipitation, Sep 2012
2-year precipitation ending in September
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages
Current:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous brief:
Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)
Current Streamflows
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Streamflows
Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Status
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
USACE – ACF Operations
10/12/12
10/13/12
10/14/12
10/15/12
10/16/12
10/17/12
10/18/12
10/19/12
10/20/12
10/21/12
10/22/12
10/23/12
10/24/12
10/25/12
10/26/12
10/27/12
10/28/12
10/29/12
10/30/12
10/31/12
11/01/12
11/02/12
11/03/12
11/04/12
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOWVERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
AVER
AGE
INFL
OW
2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage
Lake Lanier
West Point
W.F. George
Woodruff
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
5-Day Precipitation Forecast
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies
During a neutral phase, the likelihood of a severe freeze is much greater than during either an El Niño or a La Niña event.
Fall Rainfall Climatology
1-3 Month Temperature Outlook
1- and 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Tropical Outlook
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
1-Month Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
November 5th – December 5th
2012
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
November 5th 2012 – February 4th 2013
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
37%
42%
21%
68%
23%9%
60%32%
8%
71%20%
9%
76%
19%5%
Summary• Rains during the previous week have been less
than 0.5 inches and drought continues throughout the basin except the Florida panhandle
• 30-day rainfall totals are less than 20% of normal and rainfall to date this year is 50-80% of normal
• The two-year rainfall total is 10 to 30 in below normal in the basin, with the 2-year rainfall total for Sep 2012 being the lowest since 1900
Summary• Inflows to Lake Lanier have dropped sharply and
streamflows and ground water remain near historic lows in southern GA and AL
• Full basin inflows have dropped below 2000 cfs, well below the 5000 cfs needed to meet minimum flows for the Apalachicola
• Composite storage for the basin is in the middle of conservation zone 3 and is expected to continue to track downward for the near future
• Less than 0.5 inch of rainfall is forecast I the basin for the next 5 days
Summary• ENSO Neutral conditions continue, which means that we
can expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in the ACF for each of the months of November and December
• The 3-month outlook calls for relief of drought through most of the basin
• Nonetheless, streamflow forecasts for the next 1 month show the greatest probability of below normal streamflows throughout the basin
• Streamflows for the next 3 months also have the greatest probability of being below normal, except for Lake Lanier, which is has a 42% probability of being normal, but also has a 37% probability of being below normal
ReferencesSpeakers
Pam Knox, UGAVictor Murphy, NWSTodd Hamill, SERFCBailey Crane, USACEJeff Dobur, SERFC
ModeratorKeith Ingram, SECC
Additional informationGeneral drought information
http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu
General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/
Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Thank you!
Next briefing20 November 2012, 1:00 pm EST
Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/acfrb/acfrb-home
Please send comments and suggestions to:[email protected]