NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products
Marina Timofeyeva,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS
Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer, Annette Hollingshead and David Unger
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Outline• Lessons of L3MTO implementation
• New local user needs
• What NWS can offer in response to these needs?
• New local product: 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI) with Rate of Local Climate Change
• 3MOLEI local variables developmental work incorporates local climate specificities and user needs
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
CD83 SLC Ogden Heber Pl. Grove Logan
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Provides guidance for local users
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Links NOAA National Centers (CPC, NCDC) with Local Offices and local users
NOAANWS Regional
And Local Offices
NOAANWS Regional
And Local Offices
NOAANESDIS NCDC
NOAANESDIS NCDC
NOAANWS NCEP
CPC
NOAANWS NCEP
CPC
Expertise inMetadata and Observations
Local Customer Services and Feedback
Expertise in data QC, Homogenized Data
Expertise inMonitoring and Outlook Products
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)– Consistency in components’ interpretation
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)– Consistency in components’ interpretation
Help consists of:• Definitions and Interpretation Examples• Benefits and Limitations• Glossary
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Serves user educational purposes: – Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast– Supplements outlook with historical climate
reference information
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation Lessons
• Contains user interaction component: – continuous customer feedback
0
20
4060
80
100
120140
160
180
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
7-m
onth
s
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
ces
Total 465Total 465
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
New Local Customer Needs
• Climate Change: Information, Local impacts– Western Governors Association – California Water Resources– Alaska oil companies; wild life management
• El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts– Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional
Request– Water Resources Management– Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC)
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
NWS Climate Change Guidance to Local Users
• NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation
• NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers:– Fact sheets on Climate Change– Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change– IPCC report facts
• NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include:– Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records– Current rate of trends in climate variables– Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables
• Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change:– National Climatic Data Center– Earth System Research Laboratory– National Oceanographic Data Center– Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Rate of Local T/P Change
• Scientific justification for the product:– NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while
artificial step changes have been removed– Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al.,
2007) – Predictability is currently being tested
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Rate of Local T/P Change• Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces
sampling error by: • Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge)• Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years:
– 60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years
45
50
55
60
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Data Trend
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Rate of Change Regional versus Local
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts
• Based on composite analysis • On trend adjusted data• With significance test to avoid sampling error
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
0.0
00
.05
0.1
00
.15
0.2
00
.25
0.3
0
1941-2000
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
0.0
0.0
50
.10
0.1
50
.20
0.2
50
.30 1941,1958,1966,
1973,1983,1987,1988,1992,1995,1998
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts
• Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004)
FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:
CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/sstcon34.txt
Nino3.4
Term
Warm Neutral Cold
Above 67% 33% 11%
Near 13% 53% 28%
Below 20% 14% 61%
P P P P P P Pca tegorysta tion
above even tsta tion
aboveN ino
near even tsta tion
nearN ino
below even tsta tion
belowN ino /
./
./
.* * *3 4 3 4 3 4
Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):
NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 200X PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVEJFM 7.5JFM 7.5 0.0800.080 0.3930.393 0.5270.527
49%0.67*0.5270.33*0.3930.11*0.08P
30%0.13*0.5270.52*0.3930.28*0.08P
21%0.2*0.5270.14*0.3930.61*0.08P
MiamiJFM,above
MiamiJFM,near
MiamiJFM,below
HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al ProbabilitiesNino 3.4. Forecast
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3MOLEI Development
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3MOLEI Beyond T / PNWS Local Offices Studies
PR Studies• Sea level change• Extreme precipitation events
AR Studies• Min/Max temperature and precipitation
CR Studies• Number of tornado days• Number of significant tornadoes in the north central U.S.
WR Studies• US SW river flow exceedance of flooding stage
ER Studies• 3MOLEI methodology test
SR Studies•Extreme events in the Florida dry season and their relationship to ENSO, PNA, AO and NAO•Major extratropical (ET) storms•Severe weather (Tornadoes)•Excessive rainfall and flooding•Drought and wildfire•Severe cold outbreaks
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Summary• L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in
developing local climate products
• Needs of local users include information and impact on Climate Change and ENSO
• 3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product: Rate of Local T/P Change– Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008
– Experimental release is expected in September 2008
• Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on new local products
• Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new climate variables for potential operational forecast products