Monitoring the Transition Towards a Green Economy
Seminar on Green Economy and Official Statistics, Seoul, 6 July 2011
Fulai ShengHead, Research and Partnerships Unit
Economics & Trade BranchDivision of Technology, Industry and Economics
UNEP
A Green Economy is one that results in increased human well-being & social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks & ecological scarcities.
What is a Green Economy?
In Other Words…
A Green Economy is one whose growth of income and jobs is driven by investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance efficiency and sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Why a Green Economy?
• It was born out of multiple crises and accelerating resource scarcity.
• A Green Economy is the economic vehicle for sustainable development.
• A Green Economy has strategies to end the persistence of poverty.
• It is a new economic paradigm that can drive growth of income and jobs, without creating environmental risk.
China - investing US$ 468 billion in greening key sectors by 2015; >double past five years.
Barbados - National Strategic Plan includes green economy as one of its six goals by 2025.
South Africa - launched a process to develop a national Green Economy Plan.
Indonesia - national development plan has a goal of a “green and everlasting Indonesia” by 2025.
Brazil – State of Sao Paulo developed a green economy plan with targets and indicators.
Green Economy in Action
UNEP’s Green Economy Report
Investing or reallocating just 2% of global GDP in 10 key sectors can kick-start a transition to a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy.
BAU vs. a Green Scenario
Green Scenario
2 % of GDP or 1.3 trillion USD per year invested in greening 10 key sectors from 2010-2050.
Policies adopted to help reduce harmful CO2 emissions and subsidies, and incentives created to increase investments, i.e., in natural capital and energy efficiency.
Business as Usual
Current trends assumed to continue with 2% of GDP per year allocated in a BAU across 10 key sectors from 2010-2050.
Policies continue to support investment in non-green infrastructure, harmful fossil fuel and fishing subsidies, etc.
Key Findings
Investing in natural capital, resource and energy efficiency can lead to:
– Higher rates of GDP growth over time and enhanced wealth
– Natural capital stocks– Reduced poverty– Decent employment
Results by 2050
… While preserving
NATURAL CAPITAL
…createemployment
… ensure economic growth
…alleviatepoverty
… outperformBAU
GREEN ECONOMYcan…
UNEP’s Role in Monitoring Progress• Facilitating and catalytic:
what are important issues
• Work in partnership: UNSD, OECD, WB, EUROSTAT, ILO, etc EMG
• Emphasize user perspective policy
• Collaborate with developing countries and promote capacity building
Some Important Issues
National tailoring vs
International comparisons
Relevance vs Data availability
Measured vs Modelled indicators
Basic framework for monitoring the transition
1. Green Investments, Jobs and Sectors
• Investment (monetary)• Employment (jobs)• Output (monetary)
Key SectorsAgricultureBuildings
CitiesEnergyForests
FisheriesManufacturing
TourismTransport
WasteWater
2. Decoupling Impacts & Resource Productivity
GDP per unit…• GHG emissions • Energy use• Water use• Material use• Waste generation
Economy-wide
Selected key sectors
3. Aggregate indicators of progress and well-beinge.g. Adjusted net savings, expanded
wealth estimates, indices of well-being, poverty reduction, Genuine Progress Indicator, etc.
Green Sectors, Jobs …
Economic variables
Economic sectors
Environmental domains
Type of output
TurnoverValue addedEmploymentExports
Env. specific & connected servicesConnected goodsAdapted goodsEnd of pipe technologiesIntegrated technologies
Environmental protection
Resource management
Corporations
General Government
NACE 2-digits levels
Administrative levels
Different levels of detail for presenting data in EGSS (EUROSTAT)
UK market value and employment, LCEGS sector, 2008/09
Sector Market value (£ billion)
Total employed (thousands)
Environmental 22 192
Renewable energy 31 257
Emerging low carbon 53 432
Total 107 881
Source: Innovas 2010
… & Green Investments
52
76
113
151
180 187
243
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
US
$ B
illi
on
Total new investments in sustainable energy
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Concluding Remarks
• Coordinated efforts, but flexibility
• Importance of economic statistics on the green economy
• Recognize value of SEEA accounting framework for statistics and indicators at national level
• To respond to policy makers urgent needs, explore new approaches