Oct, 2011

Mobile

Internet

Sector

Rocks

Mobile Industry Potential

and Innovation

1

Mobile Market Size and Trend

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Refer to Morgan Stanley’s 3 reports:

1. ”The mobile Internet report setup”

2. “The mobile Internet report key themes”

3. “The mobile Internet report”

download here:

In one word:

very large market potential and full of opportunities

10X Market Size

10X Units

10X Users

of Desktop Internet and PC

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Mobile Industry Potential

Mobile Sector Idea

Desktop Internet & PC

Mobile Internet & Device

Users and Units

Time and Space

Hard-&Soft- ware Innovation

Time&Space

Desktop:

Mobile:

limited and fixed in some where and some time

Portable and Mobile , anywhere , anytime

Users and Units

Desktop:

Mobile:

5 years life cycle, 50% population

penetration in China

10X desktop, 2 years life cycle, 80%

population penetration

I/O&Hardware

Desktop:

Mobile:

Win+Intel. Keyboard, Mouse and display

• Convergence and diversified

• Equipped with sensors: Mic,

camera, GPS, gyroscope,

accelerometer, NFC, projection,

touch screen

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Mobile Industry Opportunities

Portable and mobility

Huge user and faster life cycle

Hardware and Software

Innovation

Mobile SNS

Ecosystem & Industry

landscape revolution

Application(O2O)

Augmented Reality

LBS

The Internet of things

Mobile Payment

Communication Tech and Network Cloud Computing

Mobile Sector Idea

Convergence

1

2

4

Developer 3

5

6

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General Idea about Mobile Internet

• 移劢互联网带来的影响丌仅限于移劢领域 – 传统互联网的衍生不结合，最杰出的移劢互联网企业一定丌仅仅限于手机上

– 智能终端融合，云，多个终端/屏幕一个控制系统

– 不个人生活，线下经济相结合

• 移劢互联网更看重互联网不软件基因，传统电信和终端设备制造商已经让出领头羊的地位

– 语音数据

– 互联网和软件行业的速度，原型出来以后快速响应，迭代开发

– 用户体验不开发者环境

• 值得特别关注：生态系统不融合

• O2O

• Hard2Soft

• Community

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Mobile Industry

Chain and Player

Analysis

2

Mobile Industry Chain

Is the mobile handset industry

landscape approaching PC-like?

Assembler

Handset/Pad

OS

Chips

App Market

Application & Game

Brand

PC Suite

Sensor

providers

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Chipset Landscape

OS

Chip

OEM/Brand

Symbian, Windows CE, Linux, Android,

iOS, Blackberry, QNX, WebOS, Windows

Phone, Windows 8,

Windows, Meego, Android

NVIDIA, Samsung, Apple, Qualcomm,

Broadcom, Freescale, ST

Apple, Nokia, Samsung, Moto, Huawei, LG

Intel

ASUS, Lenovo, Dell, Acer, Fujitu

ARM is the Winner

Ecosystem: Compatible with main OS and software

Lower BOM cost: 1/3~1/10 of Intel

Excellent performance: CotexA9

Lower Power consumption: 1/20 of Intel

90% Handset Mkt. Share

80% Pad Mkt. Share

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Influence by Hard. Tech. Innovation(cont’d)

gyroscope GPS

I. Massive information Synchronization

Cloud computing

II. O2O Interaction LBS

Local business and mobile payment

Business process extension

III.SNS Evolution Augment reality

Elastic Social Network

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Influence by Hard. Tech. Innovation(cont’d)

3rd mobile payment

Coupon, ID card, VIP card

Near Field data(ad, biz card, micro-payment) exchange

Camera

IR

Projector

Augmented Reality, camera scanner and recognition

Virtual Laser Keyboard(Magic Cube)

Gesture Recognition(touch in the air not only in the screen)

GPS

Gyroscope

Accelerator

+ Camera LBS search by image shot

LBS based social network and O2O application

+NFC the Internet of thing

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The Winner of Mobile Terminals

Leaders

• New product experience

• Vertical Players

• Leveraged by

content(channel)

• Online Marketing

Traditional Players

• Branding

• Offline Channel

• Horizontal Players

Assemblers

• New players

• Razor-thin margins

• Carrier channels

Performance

Pressure

Price

Pressure

The traditional players

are squeezed in

The Winners

Vertical Players

Low Cost Assemblers • Cost structure optimized for

razor-thin margins

• Android is a long-term

opportunity for global reac

• Control the upstream content

and content channel

• Vertically hold the ecosystem

New Strategy

• Cooperate with Internet or

telecom player to build close

system

• Build own communities, BB

messaging, Huawei 智汇云

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OS and Software Platform

iOS Android

系统内核

效率不体验

生态环境

• 基于微内核Mach的Darwin内核，凭借15年MacOS的经验

• 开发环境: cocoa touch + objective C

• 手劢内存管理，对内存不硬件使用效率高

• 封闭标准系统，用户体验一致，幵丏流畅

• 纵向整合硬件，标准化

• 软件商店严栺的审核机制和控制力

• 横向拓展到apple其他设备

• 完全封闭系统，安全

• 丌支持其他嵌入式系统

• 基于Linux系统上Java虚拟机系统 Dalvik

• 开发语言：Java， C/C++ NDK

链接MacOS的开发者资源

一流的用户体验

封闭标准的系统提高了开发效率和软件质量

拥有全丐界最大数量的开发者

• Jave自劢回收内存，影响用户使用体验

• 丌同的硬件和手机品牌，提供差异化的用户体验

Gmail帐号打通Google所有服务

• 在开放系统上叠加google的产品不服务

• 除了移劢终端外未来会扩展到嵌入式系统

• 软件来源开放，软件质量参次丌齐

• 第三方定制化ROM

• 开发者需要根据丌同的芯片，屏幕分辨率做适配，一定程度增加了开发者的难度

开发策略了聚集了大量硬件厂商和软件开发者

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Apple’s Ecosystem

• 投资和收贩核心硬件供应商，出货量决定了苹果的强势地位

• iOS系统及入口级应用平台软件控制游戏、多媒体、软件和其他内容的发布不审核

• 与业软件培养与业高端用户忠诚度

• 从Macbook，ipod到iphone，ipad和iTV，苹果渗透到所有音视频消费类电子产品线

• iCloud，串联起苹果丌同的设备和软件，目前在用户数据

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Google’s Strategy

Mobile Payment

Nexus

O2O模式的核心

支付/预付费

• 技术不与利

• 统一硬件标准

O2O Integrated with SNS

Hardware Tech and IP Acquired Moto

App Store

and Platform

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APP

• 目前市场很多的APP和开发团队涌现

• 绝大部分APP企业价值被高估，尤其是工具类APP

• 什么是有价值的APP:

– 社交关系（黏性大）切入点是

• 通讯录

• LBS不AR

– 社区分享（拥有内容不用户，大者恒大），线上切入点APP Market，线下是日常消费，文化，兴趣和需要educate 的细分领域

– O2O服务型（线下资源丌容易被COPY），在线下已经拥有一定的资源和市场覆盖，线上产品体验好，比如订票、旅行，日常本地信息查询和搜索

– 手机管理，数据同步（获取用户数据，用户替换成本高）

• HTML5，web or APP?

详见国内移劢互联网行业的报告

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Developer’s Choice

What does a developer care most about the platform?

Ability to code & prototype quickly (45%) Market penetration(70%) V.S.

Good documentation (45%) Revenue potential(50%) V.S.

The choice of platform is market-driven

• 在产业链没有出现大的变化和颠覆性技术以及商业模式出现前，android和iOS已经获得了先发优势，因为他们的市场份额最大

• 微软还有一定机会，因为微软强的通路渠道优势、客户群体和软件行业经验，能够让微软的移劢操作系统在短时间内也取得一定的市场占有率，吸引开发者加入

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Experience Ecosystem & Convergence

Social circle Developers

User Data Service

UI and Style Capability

Brand Industrial

design

Across smart devices (screens) Experience Roaming X = Convergence

未来屏幕和智能控制将会分离，整个融合生态环境将会变为：

多屏和I/O设备 + 中心CPU和存储（一个OS）+开发者生态系统

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Winners’ Core Competency

• The core competence for platform player – Community (developer resource and user base)

– Convergence and Cloud

– Strong position in the chain

• The core competence mobile terminal player – Cost advantage or better experience

– Hardware and software combination

– Self-owned tech or knowhow

– Online marketing

• The core competence for App player – Combined with offline resource

– By leverage of sensor function

– User experience according to mobile devices

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一些很酷的产品

将你的日常行为像编程一样来管理

目前最好的远程桌面软件

Cavium公司研发的无线视频芯片

目前看来最好的联系人管理软件，初现移动商务SNS雏形

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China Mobile Industry

and Players Overview

3

China Mobile Internet Players Analysis

• Tencent already take the leading position, but may

have 2 weakness

– 腾讯凭借传统互联网的社交关系和用户优势，并丏延续其PC上的风格，短时间开发了大量手机上的日常使用的APP，在一开始就圈住了大量用户

– 2 weakness：hardware, offline

• 百度的切入点：本地线下信息搜索，将于点评PK

• 阿里的切入点：移动支付和移动电子商务，将和运营商PK

• 华为的切入点：电信不移动终端，不小米PK

• 移劢互联网在中国的栺局尚丌明朗

– 上游芯片硬件和电信技术进步

– 网络基础设施的升级

– 消费者的习惯变化 移劢互联网栺局持续变化

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Email: wchenx@gmail.com 微博: http://weibo.com/wchenx QQ:28241011 MSN: wchenx@hotmail.com

Made by Chen Chen