Michael Kahn CREST and DST/NRF CoE in Scientometrics & Science Policy Stellenbosch University [email protected]
The changing socio-economic landscape
Pre 1994
Extractive institutions: zero growth; high inequality; high absolute poverty
Apartheid Balkanization
Inward focused economy
Post 1994
Nominally inclusive institutions; low growth; high inequality; reduced absolute poverty
Rapid urbanization
Open economy – growth of TNCs; BRICS
Framework conditions & ‘Inputs’
‘People’ – actors, institutions and intermediaries
Finance – state, private, ‘own,’ offshore
Capital assets – infrastructure (comms; libraries; labs; utilities)
Macro-economic fundamentals
Regulatory system inc. IPR, standards, ethics
Incentive systems
The changing contract between science and society
Pre 1994
Early - science in modernizing ‘South Africanism’ (Dubow)
Later – ‘own’ science and science for the war machine (Kahn)
Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy
Post 1994
RDP days – ‘Science for a democratic South Africa’ guided by the Republic of Science
GEAR days – instrumentalist science; ‘big technology’ plus ‘own science;’ AIDS denialism
Later - ‘own’ science and BIG SCIENCE
Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy; Competitive funding; Research Chairs; CoEs
Scenario 1: Innovation Hub
• South Africa’s comparatively developed infrastructure creates opportunities for strategic regional development. South Africa has a comparatively developed capacity for scientific and technological innovation.
• This capacity creates opportunities for strategic regional investment to build on the S&T skills base and knowledge yielding a comparative advantage and a competitive edge regionally and globally.
• The innovation hub explores the building of collective regional strategic investment and indigenous technology capacity. It considers the emergence of excellence in scientific research and discourse, new human resources development and application of policy instruments geared towards solving the socio-economic problems of the region.
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Scenario 2: Frozen Revolution
• This scenario highlights the effect of the non-implementation of government policy on socio-economic upliftment, that is the masses become dissatisfied and key players operate in a fragmented and individually focused manner.
• The Frozen Revolution scenario depicts a situation where the government is trying to address social and economic upliftment through endless policy formulation processes. Policy paralysis, manifested in general non-delivery, and some populist projects, ultimately leads to stagnation, and a widening gap between the élite and the masses.
• For Science and Technology this means “hobby horse” projects and vote-catching projects with a continued reduction in resources leading to the demise of the S&T system.
Scenario 3: Global Home
• Government embraces global liberalisation and facilitates private sector empowerment to respond to market forces, in line with global trends and opportunities.
• The scenario recognises that government engages with and adopts global rules and regulations. This leads to (i) significant initial economic growth, (ii) some improvement in social development and (iii) some dissolution of national identity and self-determination.
• S&T developments are focused on international trends with pockets of excellence, an inability to build on indigenous knowledge and a failure to address local social development needs.
Scenario 4: Our Way is the Way
• This depicts South Africa’s perceived ability to challenge the conventional route to globalisation by rallying developing country support for the creation of a significant South-South economic bloc.
• This approach results in isolation by the developed world. ‘Our way is the way’ highlights South Africa’s challenge to globalisation.
• The industrialised world responds by isolation of South Africa.
• In terms of S&T the outcome is the strengthening of the local skills base, a focus on development and promotion of self-sufficiency. Government invests in technology innovation but gives less emphasis to a pure science base. Efforts are made to gather scientific information by all means.
The nature of innovation activities
Pre 1994
War production amid technology drought
Anglo-American dominates JSE
CSIR main assignee of US patents
GERD: GDP 1.04%
Post 1994
JSE Top 100 derive ±40% revenue globally
Major owner of JSE securities is foreign (34%)
Patenting is rising, but still low …
Massive leap in registration of trademarks abroad
Permanent research staff numbers static
GERD: GDP 0.76%
Research Output : 1984 - 2014
Source: Web of Science (2015)
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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What factors explain this rise?
Increase in Journal Subsidy
Increase in researcher productivity (# ‘constant’)
Increase in direct incentives to researchers
Increase in Research Chairs
Increase in international co-publication (especially HIV)
Increase in health sciences and social science outputs (HIV)
Increased scope of the Rating System
Increased number of indexed SA publication titles
Increase in perverse behaviour
WHAT HAS BEEN THE DIRECT ROLE OF POLICY IN THIS???????
Comments on DHET proposals
Uniform subsidy payment for journals
Continues to discourage collaboration, especially beyond HE walls and internationally
Books are to be over-rewarded
Perverse behaviours will be reinforced
Salami slicing will continue
Viva mediocrity
Time to look at research group evaluation?