Target Rule (660-044)- By June 2015
- Evaluate target rule - Decide whether revisions to targets are
“warranted”
March 2015Target Rule Review
For year 2035 “light vehicle
travel in metropolitan areas”
Per capita above and
beyond fleet, fuels & technology
Background
Metropolitan GHG Targets(HB 2001/ SB 1059 – 2009-2010)
March 2015Target Rule Review
Background
State Greenhouse Gas Goal(HB 3543 – 2007)
by 2050: 75% below 1990 levels
March 2015Target Rule Review
Evaluation Factors Results of scenario planning New information about future light vehicle
emissions State plans to reduce GHG emissions Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) Changes in metropolitan area population,
development, boundaries Local efforts to reduce GHG emissions Input from local governments, MPOs Land use feasibility/ economic studies State support for scenario planning Emissions from travel from outside MPOs
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
Targets are achievable
Metro –29% reduction
Central Lane – 14% reduction
Corvallis – 18% reduction
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
What will it take?
A comprehensive, coordinated set of actions that reduce the need for driving More transit Pricing– shift to pay by the mile road user fees and
PAYD insurance Improved infrastructure for biking, walking Compact, mixed use development Parking management Incentives – employee commute options, eco-
driving
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
What will it take?
Key land use/transportation actions Limited UGB expansion – 15% rate of population
growth More mixed use development - 30% of households Much more transit – 2 to 4x current service levels More investments in walking/cycling infrastructure Expanded transportation options/ incentives,
commute options - 30% of employees, residents Parking management Limited roadway expansion
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
What will it take?
Supporting state actions Pay-as-you-drive insurance Funding for transit Support for transportation options Incentives – employee commute options, eco-
driving
Status Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) identifies
key actions, calls for further study ODOT working on short-term implementation plan
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
What will it take?
FundingNew investments are needed - Mostly transit - but also walking, biking and new programs to
support transportation options- Expanded options are needed to realize potential
from more compact, mixed use development
March 2015Target Rule Review
Scenario Planning Results
Actions that reduce GHG have other important benefits
Reduced household transportation and energy costs, Improved air quality Improved public
healthReduced congestion
March 2015Target Rule Review
New Information about Technology, Fleet and Fuels
March 2015Target Rule Review
Expected changes in vehicle technology, fleet and fuels are key to reducing GHG Emissions
New Information
Fuel Economy/Vehicle Technology
Target Rule New Information On Track?
Auto: 68 mpg
• Feds adopt new motor vehicle standards in 2012
• DEQ adopts California’s updated zero emission vehicle (ZEV) rules in 2013
Yes
March 2015Target Rule Review
New Information
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles
Target Rule New Information On Track?
8% of new car sales by
2035
• STS anticipates much more rapid adoption of EV and PHEV:
-23% of new cars-20% of new trucks
• California AB 32 estimates more than 40%+ of new cars in 2035 may be Zero Emission vehicles (ZEV)
Yes(Ahead of
2011 estimates)
March 2015Target Rule Review
Battery electrics (EVs) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) generate much lower carbon emissions
New Information
Fleet Turnover
Target Rule New Information On Track?
8 year turnover
• STS anticipates 9 year turnover
• Studies indicates vehicle lasting longer, slower turnover
Not quite
March 2015Target Rule Review
Replacement of older vehicles brings new low-emission vehicles on-line
New Information
Fleet Mix
Target Rule New Information On Track?
2035 Fleet will
be:Auto: 70%Light Truck: 30%
• STS and recent trends anticipate much slower shift to light trucks
• STS estimates 60/40 in 2035
Not quite
March 2015Target Rule Review
Long-term shift from pickups and SUVs to passenger cars reduces average emissions per mile
New Information
Low Carbon Fuels
Target Rule New Information On Track?
-20% in carbon
intensity of fuels by 2035
• State continuing implementation of Clean Fuels Program
• Oil is getting “dirtier” – sources of oil (shale, fracking) have higher CO2 emissions
Close
March 2015Target Rule Review
Reducing carbon content of fuels directly reduces CO2 emissions
State Plans
Progress Global Warming Commission 2014
Report Statewide Transportation Strategy
(STS) Governor’s 10-Year Energy Action Plan
But No state plans or policies setting GHG
targets for other sectors
March 2015Target Rule Review
State Plans
Additional reductions are needed to meet 2050 goal
January 2015Target Rule Review
Targets based on a steady 5.1% per year reduction in emissions 2010-2050
Metropolitan Growth & Development
State population forecast for 2035 is down slightly
5.9 million to 5.4 million Two new MPOs
Albany Area Middle Rogue (Grants Pass)
March 2015Target Rule Review
Local efforts to reduce emissions
A few notable efforts Portland/Multnomah County Climate
Action Plan – Goal is 30% reduction in VMT per capita
Eugene Climate Recovery Ordinance – Goal is to reduce fossil use by 50% by 2030
March 2015Target Rule Review
Input from MPOs, local governments
Continue voluntary approach and address a full range of outcomes
Concern about limited resources for metropolitan planning; other obligations
Scenario planning shows need for Increased transportation funding New programs to expand options State leadership
More work needed to translate high level, scenario “strategies” into land use and transportation plans
March 2015Target Rule Review
Land use feasibility and economic studies Few studies Available information
Growing market for compact, mixed use development
Metro reports high rates of infill, redevelopment Demographic and market shift favor multifamily
housing Surveys show increasing market preference for
walkable neighborhoods
March 2015Target Rule Review
State support for scenario planning
Funding and technical support for scenario planning strategic assessments
New analysis tools (GreenSTEP, RSPM) ODOT, OSTI commitment to continue to
support metropolitan efforts
March 2015Target Rule Review
Implications
Are changes to targets warranted?
New technical information is mixed More and better electrics and plug-ins
sooner than expected Fleet will turnover more slowly More pickups/SUVs
March 2015Target Rule Review
Implications
Are changes to targets warranted?
Metropolitan areas are updating plans to 2040 and beyond
Additional reductions will be needed to meet 2050 goal
March2015Target Rule Review
Metropolitan Area Next RTP Update Next RTP Planning Horizon
Portland Metro December 2018 2040
Salem-Keizer May 2015 2035
Central Lane December 2015 2040
Corvallis Area March 2017 2041-2042
Rogue Valley March 2017 2042
Bend September 2015 2040
Preliminary Recommendation
Amendments to targets are warranted
Update targets to 2040 based on new technical information from ODOT, DEQ, Energy
Explore ways to integrate GHG reduction and scenario planning with metropolitan plan updates
March 2015Target Rule Review
May LCDC Meeting
Revised Target Review report Options for commission action
Target amendments warranted or not? If yes, direction for next steps
March 2015Target Rule Review