� e grain and oilseed markets have staged a bit of a recovery after sharp losses triggered by a rebound in the dollar, after indications that China will try and put the brakes on their economic growth to slow rising infl ationary pressures and after large selling by the funds, as they reduce their large speculative length in these markets.
In November, the U.S. dollar staged a sharp rally linked to another round of investor concerns over the European debt situation. � e European Union granted Ireland an 85 billion euro aid package after having also done so earlier in the year for Greece. � ere is concern that both Spain and Portugal may pony up at the trough for some aid. � is
has sent the euro plunging versus the greenback.
China, the most populous nation on the planet with an economy that is now ranked as the second largest in the world, almost single-handedly led the globe out of the fi nancial crisis two years ago. � eir growth has been jaw-dropping, with GDP in the quarter ending this past September up 9.6%, which is down from an 11.9% increase posted in the fi rst quarter. � is huge spurt in economic activity has come at the expense of sharply higher infl ation, with food prices in particular a real trouble. Food prices soared more than 10 percent in October which is very harmful to a populace where up to 50 percent of incomes are spent on food. It is debatable whether
policy moves will help stem the rise in food prices. In China, as in many other developing nations, a rising middle class with higher incomes is demanding a better diet – one that features increased consumption of meat and dairy protein as opposed to one composed mostly of rice and wheat-based noodles. � is means increased production of pork, beef, chicken and milk, and it necessitates greater utilization of feed grains and protein meals. China, with a fi xed arable land-base and with yields for most major grains and oilseeds far lower than in other grain-producing regions, appears to have limited ability to be self-suffi cient in food production and very likely will soon be forced to import large quantities of feed
Cottonseed* ($/ton)
Nov. 29 Price
CA $305ID $321WI $265
Supreme hay ($/ton)
Nov. 19 Price
Central CA $190
WA/OR $170-$190ID $145-$150TX $170-$195
CO $120-$150NM $185-$190PA $200-$265
Soybeans* ($/ton)
Nov. 29 Price
CA $387ID $386WI $351
MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH Dollar Stronger after EU debt TROUBLES Feed Prices PREDICTED HIGH ‘Til MID-2011MARKET WATCHINPUTs
Joel KarlinCommodity Manager & Market AnalystWestern Milling
*Price quotes contributed by Western Milling, J.D. Heiskell and United Cooperative.
Corn* (in bushels) (in tons)
Nov. 29 Price
CA $6.72ID $6.72WI $4.75
Nov. 29 Price
CA $240ID $240WI $170
COMMODITIES
Without question the most bullish factor for the grain and oilseed markets is an urgent need to attract a huge increase in planted acreage of both corn and soybeans this coming spring to prevent stocks of both commodities from falling to intolerably low levels for the 2011-12 season. � is will prove to be a huge challenge, given the number of crops that are demanding higher acreage. Recall three years ago when U.S. farmers did increase corn seedings by 15 million acres to their highest level since World War II, but back then soybeans, wheat and cotton, among others, were not bidding as aggressively for higher plantings as they are now.
We understand that a good bit of fall fertilizer application has occurred recently in the Midwest as fall crops are harvested and producers are able to get nitrogen and other nutrients in the ground compared to last year, when a delayed harvest prevented any fi eld work. PD
ingredients and perhaps meat. In fact, some economists say that the quickest way to combat rising food infl ation is to encourage increased imports.
Recently, word emerged that Russia may purchase 3.0 million tons of Argentine corn and this follows up on talk that China has also inked a deal with Argentina for 5.0 million tons. � e fact that two of the major grain-producing nations of the world may embark on their largest corn- buying spree in years could send this market into overdrive if any large-scale deals are consummated. � ough the U.S. is so far not involved, the fact is that world corn stocks, already at very tight levels, will contract even more.
Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary
8 Progressive Dairyman Issue 18 • December 11, 2010
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WE ARE A FAMILY OWNED BUSINESS
• Bunker Silos
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• Free Stall Barns
• ExcavatingToll Free: 877-948-9661
920-872-2520
www.pippingconcrete.com
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NEW RAMP DESIGN
Controlled Air Flowwith Flaps
Ridge Ventilation System
Advanced AutomationTechnology
Rolling Curtain System
Eliminate Skin Parasites
Cow Brushes
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THANK YOU!We appreciateyour business!
ARNTJENNORTH AMERICA INC.
CALL: Glen Garner 519-462-2887 OR
1-866-ARNTJEN (276-8536) TOLL FREE
INTERNET: www.arntjen.com E-MAIL: [email protected]
Clean Cows
Merry Christmas& Happy New Year!
WE ARE A FAMILY OWNED BUSINESS
• Bunker Silos
• Manure Pits
• Free Stall Barns
• ExcavatingToll Free: 877-948-9661
920-872-2520
www.pippingconcrete.com
Round PitsBunker Silos
NEW RAMP DESIGN
Corn March ’11 contracts $5.35 $5.78/$5.30
NOV. 29 Avg. 2-week settle High/Low
Soybean meal Jan. ’11 contracts $360 $361.50/$327.70
REGION
GAS DIESEL
Nov. 29 3-week change
Yearly change Nov. 29 3-week
changeYearly
change
East Coast $2.893 +.069¢ +.26¢ $3.166 +.052¢ +.374¢
Midwest $2.787 -.105¢ +.218¢ $3.144 +.042¢ + .396¢
Gulf Coast $2.668 -.015¢ +.171¢ $3.078 +.048¢ +.354¢
West $2.994 +.021¢ +.224¢ $3.30 +.027¢ +.412¢
California $3.152 +.011¢ +.231¢ $3.328 +.049¢ +.38¢
U.S. $2.856 -.009¢ +.227¢ $3.162 +.046¢ +.387¢
Dollar Stronger after EU debt TROUBLES Feed Prices PREDICTED HIGH ‘Til MID-2011
It is diffi cult to imagine much relief in corn, protein meal or other byproduct ingredient values until mid-year 2011, at the earliest,
as the market assesses how the corn and soybean crops are faring and after the June acreage report. Hence, any semblance of dairy profi tability would seem to hinge on a recovery in milk prices, but that may be contingent on the volume of dairy products consumed over the Christmas, New Year and Super Bowl holiday period.
FUTURES
ENERGY
Mar 2011 May July Sept DecDec 2010
Low
High
Settle$4.75
$5.00
$5.25
$5.50
$5.75
$6.00 High: $5.74 Low: $4.95Corn ($ per bushel)
Jan2011
MayMar July Sept OctAug DecDec2010
Low
High
Settle$290$300$310$320$330$340$350$360 High: $351.03 Low: $296.76 Soybean meal ($ per ton)
Jan2010
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept OctNov2009
Dec
2009
2008
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
Source: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices report Oct. 2010
The chart above displays the pounds of feed that can be purchased from the sale of a pound of milk. A milk-feed ratio of 3.0 or greater implies it is profi table to produce milk (1 pound) from feed purchased (3 pounds).
Prices used to calculate ratioCommodity Current Change
Corn (bu) $4.78 +.70 Soybeans (bu) $10.70 +.78 Baled hay (ton) $118 +$1.00 All-milk (cwt) $18.30 +.60
Last reported 3.0 or better ratio: Nov. 2007
Oct 31, 2010: 2.23 High: 2.42 Low: 1.47Milk:feed ratio
Jan2011
MayAprMarFeb June July Sept Oct NovAug Dec Jan2012
Settle$82
$83
$84
$85
$86
$87
$88 High: $86.74 Low: $83.40Crude oil ($ per barrel)
Should the dollar continue to gain ground against other currencies, it will pressure the grain and oilseeds markets to a large degree. Longer-term dollar direction will be dictated by the health of the U.S. economy and any new policy directives undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board, whose attention now focuse on how much U.S. consumers are willing to spend over the Christmas season.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange data
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Issue 18 • December 11, 2010 Progressive Dairyman 9
PD SOUTHWEST MAIN PC
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This efficient and labor-reducing feeding station is one of the smart advantages available only from your WestfaliaSurge dealer.
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