Hardwood Growing Stock
1948 2010
Merchantable
Timber (> 12”) 400 BBF 1 TBF
Species mix
52% Red & White Oak
11% Poplar
Hardwood lumber use – Million BF
2000 2010Furniture 3,700 500 Cabinets 900 500 Flooring 500 600 Dim/mould 1,000 400Exports 1,100 700Industrial 6,800 4,300Total Prod.14.0 BBF 7.0 BBF
Hardwood lumber competition
1) World suppliers of hardwoodRussia, SE Asia, Eastern Europe
2) Substitute materialslong term BIGGEST threat
3) Our own selves! - Log Exports
4) False environmental claimsGreen Sourcing
Forest Certification – not lumber
FSC, SFI, Tree Farm, PEFC (European)
Industry will need to show:
1) Sourcing location
2) Product is legal
3) Location is sustainably managed
Bad news
• Housing – Current Production 500,000(was 2 million at peak)
• Pulp Mills - Never another new mill in US
• Shipping - Container Rates Skyrocket
• Log prices – Quick to move back up
Good news
• Housing – Pent up demand
• Wood Energy – Pellets/ethanol
• World GDP Stronger – More Exports
• Low interest rates
• Partnerships with other manufacturing groups
• Production to remain low
Outlook – Five years?
• Even smaller hardwood lumber industry
• Increased International business
• Increased NA hardwood forests certified