Download pdf - Marin County Market Update | Q3 2015

All data within this document is pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS)

Marin County Market UpdateThird Quarter 2015SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE

117 Greenwich Street

San Francisco, CA 94111

t. 415.901.1700

sothebyshomes.com

Ross, CA | web: 0086863

A MESSAGE FROM: Jeffrey G. GibsonSenior Vice President and Brokerage Manager

In the third quarter of 2015, Marin County’s real estate market remained

steady in the under $3 million range, according to data pulled from the

Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS). However, the over $3

million range soared, driven largely by the County’s record-breaking sale

of Locksley Hall in Belvedere at $47.5 million. Total closed volume for all of

Marin County from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015 increased 9% from $847,999,792 to

$928,001,337. I invite you to review the following charts and data depicting

the market details for Marin County, Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield, Sausalito,

Tiburon, Belvedere and San Rafael.

MARIN COUNTY MARKET SUMMARY (SFH)

TIBURON AND BELVEDERE SUMMARY (SFH)

While the upward movement for all of Marin County

between Q3 2012 - Q3 2013 was steep, the overall closed

volume between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015 maintained a high

elevation. Notably, the price for a single family home

sold over the $3 million mark rose from an average

of $4,346,205 to $5,789,054, a price expansion of 33

percent. Each town in the county experienced different

variations of expansion and retraction though San

Rafael in particular, best showcased the overall trend of

inventory constricting under the $1M mark, while homes

between the $1M - $3M are becoming more readily

available.

The momentous sale of the Julia Morgan designed

“Locksley hall” in Belvedere contributed in part to the

astronomical numbers found in Tiburon and Belvedere

in Q3 of 2015. At a closing price of $47.5 million, this

transaction was a record breaking close for the entire

county, and spiked the closed volume for properties over

$3M by 188 percent from Q3 the previous year.

Along with this, transactions closed in Tiburon and

Belvedere which were under $1M were null, yet the

number of closed transactions above $3M significantly

jumped up by 57 percent.

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24%

51%

25%

Q3-2015 MARIN COUNTY VOLUME

< $1.0M

$1.0M - $3.0M

$3.0M and up

0%25%

75%

Q2-2015 - TIBURON & BELVEDERE VOLUME

< $1.0M

$1.0M - $3.0M

$3.0M and up

3

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

Across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco lies Marin County, an

area renowned for its natural beauty. Marin County is home to Muir Woods

redwood forest, the Marin Headlands, Stinson Beach, the Point Reyes

National Seashore and Mount Tamalpais. Most of the county’s population

resides on the eastern side, with the interior of the county consisting of large

areas of agricultural and open space.

MARIN COUNTY

PRICE RANGE 2012 2013 2014 2015 % CHANGE(2015 v 2014)

UP TO $1 MILLION 461 388 299 290 -3%

$1 - $3 MILLION 191 295 281 297 6%

$3 MILLION AND UP 15 21 40 40 0%

TOTALS 667 704 620 627 1%

Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH)


UP TO $1 MILLION $299,340,211 $277,024,039 $223,537,350 $225,762,733 1%

$1 - $3 MILLION $290,922,484 $464,996,638 $450,614,252 $470,676,464 4%

$3 MILLION AND UP $63,615,000 $126,135,070 $173,848,190 $231,562,140 33%

TOTALS $653,877,695 $868,155,747 $847,999,792 $928,001,337 9%

Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH)


UP TO $1 MILLION $649,328 $713,979 $747,617 $778,492 4%

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,523,154 $1,576,260 $1,603,609 $1,584,769 -1%

$3 MILLION AND UP $4,241,000 $6,006,432 $4,346,205 $5,789,054 33%

TOTALS $980,326 $1,233,176 $1,367,742 1,480,066 8%

Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH)

- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

$- $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000

$1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

Average List Price Average Sales Price

$- $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 $700,000,000 $800,000,000 $900,000,000

$1,000,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

4SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco


Mill Valley, about 14 miles north of San Francisco, is located on the western and

northern shores of Richardson Bay. Mill Valley is known for being a town with

a strong artistic heritage, with its many art galleries and town sponsorship of

the Mill Valley Film Festival, which is part of the California Film Institute. The

combination of Mill Valley’s idyllic location beneath Mount Tamalpais and

its ease of access to San Francisco has made it a popular home for many

commuters.

MILL VALLEY


UP TO $1 MILLION 56 34 19 17 -11%

$1 - $3 MILLION 47 59 60 58 -3%

$3 MILLION AND UP 4 1 6 7 17%

TOTALS 107 94 85 82 -4%



UP TO $1 MILLION $42,055,850 $28,216,530 $15,214,400 $13,966,775 -8%

$1 - $3 MILLION $72,401,780 $92,805,787 $96,687,050 $96,307,005 0%

$3 MILLION AND UP $15,435,000 $4,760,000 $26,005,000 $25,425,000 -2%

TOTALS $129,892,630 $125,782,317 $137,906,450 $135,698,780 -2%



UP TO $1 MILLION $750,997 $829,898 $800,758 $821,575 3%

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,540,463 $1,572,979 $1,611,451 $1,660,466 3%

$3 MILLION AND UP $3,858,750 $4,760,000 $4,334,167 $3,632,143 -16%

TOTALS $1,213,950 $1,338,110 $1,622,429 $1,654,863 2%


$- $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000

$1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000

2012 2013 2014 2015


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015

$118,000,000 $120,000,000 $122,000,000 $124,000,000 $126,000,000 $128,000,000 $130,000,000 $132,000,000 $134,000,000 $136,000,000 $138,000,000 $140,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

5


The scenic residential towns of Ross and Kentfield, with their small-town feel,

tree-covered hills, winding creeks, graciously landscaped streets and gardens,

serve as an ideal oasis for both locals and visitors alike. Ross is located just

north of San Francisco and is bordered by Kentfield and Greenbrae to the

east. Kentfield is home to the main campus for the College of Marin, which is

well known for its theatre department.

ROSS and KENTFIELD


UP TO $1 MILLION 7 1 1 1 0%

$1 - $3 MILLION 17 27 23 16 -30%

$3 MILLION AND UP 4 4 11 8 -27%

TOTALS 28 32 35 25 -29%



UP TO $1 MILLION $5,195,800 $847,000 $900,000 $800,000 -11%

$1 - $3 MILLION $25,981,800 $52,874,363 $44,536,711 $29,972,000 -33%

$3 MILLION AND UP $19,160,000 $25,905,770 $55,682,500 $36,544,640 -34%

TOTALS $50,337,600 $79,627,133 $101,119,211 $67,316,640 -33%



UP TO $1 MILLION $742,257 $847,000 $900,000 $800,000 -11%

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,528,341 $1,958,310 $1,936,379 $1,873,250 -3%

$3 MILLION AND UP $4,790,000 $6,476,443 $5,062,045 $4,568,080 -10%

TOTALS $1,797,771 $2,488,348 $2,889,120 $2,692,666 -7%


$-

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

2012 2013 2014 2015


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014 2015

$-

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015



The waterfront town of Sausalito is located just across the Golden Gate Bridge

from San Francisco. The charming town offers an array of boutique shops,

art studios and galleries, restaurants and outdoor cafes and bistros, many

with incredible views of the San Francisco Bay and city skyline. Sausalito is

adjacent to the protected areas of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area,

a popular camping and tourist destination.

SAUSALITO


UP TO $1 MILLION 5 3 5 1 -80%

$1 - $3 MILLION 8 15 14 14 0%

$3 MILLION AND UP 1 3 2 n/a n/a

TOTALS 14 21 21 15 -29%



UP TO $1 MILLION $4,291,000 $2,040,000 $3,637,500 $900,000 -75%

$1 - $3 MILLION $13,452,500 $26,034,333 $25,248,000 $30,904,000 22%

$3 MILLION AND UP $3,575,000 $15,723,000 $7,978,000 n/a n/a

TOTALS $21,318,500 $43,797,333 36,863,500 $31,804,000 -14%



UP TO $1 MILLION $858,200 $680,000 $727,500 $900,000 24%

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,681,563 $1,735,622 $1,803,429 $2,207,429 22%

$3 MILLION AND UP $3,575,000 $5,241,000 $3,989,000 n/a n/a

TOTALS $1,522,750 $2,085,587 $1,755,405 $2,120,267 21%


$-

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

2012 2013 2014 2015


-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015

$- $5,000,000

$10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000 $45,000,000 $50,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

7


Tiburon occupies most of the Tiburon Peninsula, while the smaller city of

Belvedere occupies the southeast portion of the Peninsula. Tiburon is a

popular town amongst commuters and tourists, linked by ferry services

to San Francisco. The town offers a high concentration of restaurants and

boutiques and is the closest mainland point to Angel Island. Belvedere is

home to many properties renowned for their spectacular views of the Bay

Area, Angel Island, San Francisco, Sausalito, the Golden Gate Bridge and

Mount Tamalpais.

TIBURON and BELVEDERE


UP TO $1 MILLION 7 4 n/a n/a n/a

$1 - $3 MILLION 31 34 25 24 -4%

$3 MILLION AND UP 5 12 14 22 57%

TOTALS 43 50 39 46 18%




UP TO $1 MILLION $853,057 $802,500 n/a n/a n/a

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,889,968 $1,994,419 $2,070,340 $2,154,333 4%

$3 MILLION AND UP $4,289,000 $6,295,525 $3,915,906 $7,171,023 83%

TOTALS $2,000,126 $2,931,331 $2,732,851 $4,553,620 67%



UP TO $1 MILLION $5,971,400 $3,210,000 n/a n/a n/a

$1 - $3 MILLION $58,589,000 $67,810,250 $51,758,500 $51,704,000 0%

$3 MILLION AND UP $21,445,000 $75,546,300 $54,822,690 $157,762,500 188%

TOTALS 86,005,400 146,566,550 $106,581,190 $209,466,500 97%

$-

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015


-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015

$-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015



Sitting in the heart of Marin County, San Rafael is one of the oldest and

largest cities in the county. The city’s rich history can be seen from the many

well-preserved classic homes found in each neighborhood. Residents and

visitors alike can enjoy a plethora of shopping and entertainment in the

downtown area, or bask in nature on the hiking trails, lakes and views atop

nearby Mount Tamalpais.

SAN RAFAEL


UP TO $1 MILLION 116 114 84 94 12%

$1 - $3 MILLION 19 39 38 59 55%

$3 MILLION AND UP 1 - 1 1 0%

TOTALS 136 153 123 154 25%



UP TO $1 MILLION $75,792,060 $84,299,734 $65,121,750 $76,832,081 18%

$1 - $3 MILLION $25,644,200 $54,303,045 $54,569,000 $79,763,634 46%

$3 MILLION AND UP $4,000,000 n /a $5,950,000 $3,030,000 -49%

TOTALS 105,436,260 138,602,779 125,640,750 159,625,715 27%



UP TO $1 MILLION $653,380 $739,471 $775,259 $817,363 5%

$1 - $3 MILLION $1,349,695 $1,392,386 $1,436,026 $1,351,926 -6%

$3 MILLION AND UP $4,000,000 n/a 5,950,000 $3,030,000 -49%

TOTALS $775,267 $905,901 $1,021,470 $1,036,531 1%


$-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

2012 2013 2014 2015


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2012 2013 2014 2015

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

STINSON BEACHWeb ID: 0087202 | $12,000,000

This house is solid, yet elegantly transparent, due to

expansive windows and an open floor plan provides

sea views throughout. The Seadrift enclave offers

the finest beach lifestyle in Northern California.

Jon Taylor and Gloria Smith | 415.722.2812

TIBURONWeb ID: 0087559 | $3,395,000

At the end of one of Tiburon’s best streets is a

serene cul-de-sac leading to the secluded circular

driveway of this one of a kind home, providing

its owners luxurious seclusion, breathtaking

panoramic views, and idyllic indoor-outdoor living.

Paul Warrin and Kara Warrin | 415.407.7979

STINSON BEACHWeb ID: 0087311 | $2,995,000

Hand built by one of the finest builders in West

Marin, this home overlooks the cliffs of the Pacific

and has access to the tamed trails of the National

Golden Gate Parklands.

Butch Haze and Rick Teed | 415.250.3988

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