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Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme
Managing Complexity inthe Face of Uncertainty
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Use tools, templates, and processes to plan a TPM project Discuss the importance of planning Apply software packages to plan projects Plan & conduct the Joint Project Planning Session (JPPS) Build the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Estimate task duration, resource requirements, cost Construct the project network diagram Write an effective project proposal Gain approval to launch the project
After successful studying this chapter You should be able to:
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Figure05-01
The Pain Curve
GoodPlanning
PoorPlanning
Pain
Time18-36%
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Planning Reduces Uncertainty Planning Increases Understanding Planning Improves Efficiency
The Importance of Planning
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Yes Very large projects Distributed teams Extensive use of vendors and contractors
No Small projects Short duration project increments Adds too much non-value-added work Frequent scope and requirements changes
Using Software Packages to Plan a Project
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Sticky notes (various colors) Marking pens (assorted colors) Plenty (a lot) of whiteboard space
Project Planning Tools
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Task ID Unique task name Task duration Task labor Resource requirements Task manager ES, EF, LS, and LF (calculated values) Critical Path (calculated)
Uses for Sticky Notes
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Define dependency relationships Identify the critical path
Uses for Marking Pens
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Project Overview Statement Work Breakdown Structure Dependency Diagram Initial Project Schedule Final Project Schedule Resource Schedule Issues Log Updated Project Schedule
Uses for the Whiteboard
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Very small projects < ½ day Small projects < 1 day Medium projects 2 days Large projects 3-4 days Very large projects ???
How Much Time Should Planning Take?
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Attendees Facilities Equipment Agenda Deliverables Project Proposal(Joint Project Planning Session)
The JPPS Meeting Components
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Facilitator Project manager Another project manager JPP consultant Technographer Core project team Client representative Resource managers Project champion Functional managers Process owner
The JPPS Attendees
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Facilities Comfortable Away from interruptions (off-site or on-site) Break-out rooms?
Equipment Break-out group work areas (table, chairs, flip charts) Whiteboards Projection equipment
The JPPS Facilities & Equipment
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Session #1 Negotiate the COS Build the RBS
Session #2 Write the POS
Session #3 Part 1: Kick-off Part 2: Working session
The Complete JPPS Agenda
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Session #1 Project ManagerClient
Session #2 Project ManagerClientProject Team (known members)
Session #3 Project ManagerEntire Project Team
Who’s Involved in the Planning Process?
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Introduction of Sponsor Sponsor overview of the project and its importance to
the company/division/department Introduction of the client co-project manager Introduction of the IT co-project manager Introduction of the core project team Introduction of the planning facilitation team (facilitator
and technographer)
The JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Planning Kick-off
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Validation & prioritization of requirements Overview of the project planning approach to be taken Generation and validation of the WBS Estimate duration, labor and resource requirements Creation of the dependency diagram Discuss critical path and project completion date Analysis and schedule compression as needed Identification of project risks and mitigation plans Planning team consensus on project plan contents Adjournment
JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Working session
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Review the POS for clarity Create Work Breakdown Structure Estimate task duration and resource needs Construct project network diagram Determine critical path Revise and approve project schedule Finalize resource schedule Gain consensus on the project plan
Planning Session Activities
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The Role of the Client in the JPPS
The client or their representative must be present. Validation of requirements and POS Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW) Generating and validating the WBS Commitment of resources from the client Agreement on the project plan Client must own the project plan Meaningful involvement by the client
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW)
• M MUST Describes a requirement that must be satisfied in the finalsolution for the solution to be considered a success.
• S SHOULD Represents a high-priority item that should be included inthe solution if it is possible. This is often a critical requirement but onewhich can be satisfied in other ways if strictly necessary.
• C COULD Describes a requirement which is considered desirable butnot necessary. This will be included if time and resources permit.
• W WON'T Represents a requirement that stakeholders have agreed willnot be implemented in a given release, but may be considered for thefuture. (note: occasionally the word "Would" is substituted for "Won't"to give a clearer understanding of this choice).
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The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a hierarchicaldescription of all of the work that must be done to meetthe needs of the client.
Definition of the WBS
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The RBS
Figure05-02Each activity is a further decomposition of the WBS.
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Hierarchical visualization of the WBS
Figure05-03Work Package
SubfunctionSubfunctionSubfunction
FunctionFunctionFunction
ActivityTask #1 Task #2 Task #3 . . . . Task #n
Macro-Level
Micro-Level
Mid- Level
GOAL
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Thought process tool Architectural design tool Planning tool Project status reporting tool
Uses for the WBS?
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Converting the RBS to the WBS (Figure 5.2) Team Approach Sub-team Approach
Top-Down Approach Team Approach Sub-team Approach
Bottom-Up Approach
Which is best?When?Why?
Generating the WBS
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Status and completion are measurable The activity is bounded The activity has a deliverable Time and cost are easily estimated Activity duration is within acceptable limits Work assignments are independent(SMART)
WBS Completion Criteria
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The client didn’t participate in building the WBS likeyou expected.
You have an uncomfortable feeling Scope change is likely to be a big part of the project Choose a PMLC model that accommodates frequent
change
WBS Completion Criteria – (cont.)
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Stopping Before Completion Criteria Are Met Decomposing Beyond Completion of the Criteria Short duration projects High risk activities Large duration variance
WBS Completion Criteria – Exceptions
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RBS is a subset of the WBS
Figure05-04
Project goaland solution
Requirement1
Function1.1
Feature1.2.1.1
Featuren.3.1
Sub-function1.2.3
Requirement n
Function1.2
Function1.3
Functionn.1
Functionn.2
Functionn.3
Sub-function1.2.2
Sub-function1.2.1
Featuren.3.2
Featuren.3.3
Featuren.3.4
Feature1.2.1.2
Feature1.2.1.3
Feature1.2.1.4
Activity1.2.1.1.1
Task1.2.1.1.3.3
Activity1.2.1.1.2
Activity1.2.1.1.3
Task1.2.1.1.3.2
Task1.2.1.1.3.1
Activityn.3.4.1
Taskn.3.4.3.3
Activityn.3.4.2
Activityn.3.4.3
Taskn.3.4.3.2
Taskn.3.4.3.1
RBS WBS
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Noun-type Approaches Physical components Functional components
Verb-type Approaches Design-build-test-implement Objectives
Organizational approaches Geographic Departmental Business process
Which is best?When?Why?
Approaches to Building the WBS
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Graphical WBS for a HouseHOUSE
SITE FOUNDATION
FRAMING WALLS ROOFING UTILITIES LANDSCAPING FINISHWORK
Layout Grade Excavate
ErectForms
PourConcrete
Removeforms
InstallSheathing
LayShingles
HangSheetrock
Tape& Bed ELECT. GAS WATER
DoRough-in
Work
DoRough-in
Work
DoRough-in
Work
GetBuildingInspect.
GetBuildingInspect.
GetBuildingInspect.
DoFinishWork
DoFinishWork
DoFinishWork
InstallCabinets
InstallAppliances
InstallFurnace
LayCarpet
PaintWalls &Molding
HangWallpaper
LayTile
FLOORJOISTS
SUB-FLOOR
STUDWALLS
FRAMEROOF
Install1st
Floor
Install1st
Floor
Install1st
Floor
Install2nd
Floor
Install2nd
Floor
Install2nd
Floor
Figure05-05
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Indented Outline WBS for a House1. SITE PREPARATION
1.1. Layout1.2. Grading1.3. Excavation
2. FOUNDATION2.1. Erect Forms2.2. Pour Concrete2.3. Remove Forms
3. FRAMING3.1. Floor Joists
3.1.1. Install first floor joists3.1.2. Install second floor joists
3.2. Sub-flooring3.2.1. Install first floor sub-flooring3.2.2. Install second floor sub-flooring
3.3. Stud Walls3.3.1. Erect first floor stud walls3.3.2. Erect second floor stud walls
3.4. Frame the roofFigure05-06
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WBS for a Waterfall SDMSYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
ImplementationDefinition Design
State objectives
Define requirements
Choose SDM
Get approval
Functional
Technical
Programming
Installation
Operation
Source code
JCL
Documentation
Get approval
Testing
Training
Cut-over
Operate system
Review
Audit
Get approval
Clarify request
Establish objectives
Identify key issues
Obtain current doc.
Define new reqmts
Identify interfaces
Design I/O
Confirm specs
Define pgm specs
Prepare system flow
Convert data
Build integration test plan
Get approval
Construct codeConduct unit testConstruct JCLConduct system test
Finalize test planCreate test dataConduct testConduct operations trainingConduct user trainingFinalize planConvert dataCut-over to production
Establish planReview performance
Complete financial analysisAnalyze risks
Specaudits/controls
Get approval
Figure05-07
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Saves planning time Builds on prior experience Standardizes the planning and management of
projects using the templates Provides a structure for collecting and using
estimated/actual duration and cost data Focuses process quality improvement efforts
Using WBS Templates
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Update an application with new functionality Distribute a new release of a software package Install a network in a field office Update training materials Develop new training materials
Typical Recurring Projects
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Figure05-08
2
4
6
8
10
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
L = DLabor
Duration
L = .75D
33% unplanned interruptions
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS* Individuals work at 75 percent efficiency rate.* Unplanned interruptions account for 33 percent of clock time.
Elapsed time (duration) versus work time (labor)Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Estimate duration to build the schedule anddetermine when the project will be completed
Estimate labor when you have to contain expenseswithin a budget
Should I Estimate Task Duration or Task Labor?
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1. Pick up the chair2. Carry it to the door3. Set the chair down4. Open the door5. Hold the door open
with your foot as youpick up the chair
6. Carry the chair outthe door
7. Set the chair in thehallway
Time
# of people on the team
1 2 3 4
Resource Loading vs. Task DurationCh05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Varying skill levels Unexpected events Efficiency of work time Mistakes and misunderstandings Variation within the capability of the system Common cause variation
Causes of Variation in Duration
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Extrapolating based on similarity to other activities Studying historical data Seeking expert advice Applying the Delphi Technique (Fig 5.9) Applying the Three-point technique (Fig 5.10) Applying the Wide-band Delphi technique
Six Methods for Estimating Task Duration
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Wideband Delphi
Wideband Delphi is a process for reaching a consensusestimate of project effort– Wideband Delphi is a repeatable / iterative process because
it consists of a straightforward sequence of steps.
PM chooses an estimation team that include reps from all projectareas (managers, developers, architect, QA, writers, etc).– every team member should have stake in plan– should understand Delphi Process
Moderator: someone who understands Delphi Process buthas no stake in the results
Observers: selected stakeholders or users.– encourages trust in the estimation process– sense of ownership in the results
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1. Vision and Scope documents have been agreed on bystakeholders
2. Kick-off meeting has been scheduled3. Estimation meeting has been scheduled (1-2 hrs)4. Moderator chosen (not the PM)5. Agreement on the goal of the estimation session
Wideband Delphi: Entry Criteria
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Step 1: Choose the team– PM selects estimation team and a moderator.– team consists of 3 - 7 project team members.– moderator should be familiar with Delphi process, but
should not have a stake in the outcome– PM should not be the moderator (he should be part of the
estimation team)
Wideband Delphi - Steps
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Wideband Delphi Steps
Step 2: Kickoff Meeting– each member has read the vision and scope document and
any other documentation, and is familiar with the projectneeds.
– brainstorm and write down assumptions– brainstorm to generate a WBS with 10-20 tasks– team decides on a unit of estimation (man-hours, days,
pages, ...)
Wideband Delphi - Steps
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Step 3: Individual Preparation– each member generates his own initial estimates for all
tasks in the WBS• identify subtasks may help clarify an estimate
– for each task, the team member writes:1. estimate of effort required to complete task2. any assumptions needed to make the estimate
• write down any new tasks the were missed duringbrainstorming session
Wideband Delphi- Step 3: Individual Preparation
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Step 4: Estimation Session– Each team member fills out an estimation form which
contains his estimate for each task– give the form to the moderator– rest of the estimation session consists of rounds where
each estimation team member revises her estimates basedon group discussion.
• Individual estimate(s) are not disclosed
Wideband Delphi- Steps
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Step 4: Estimation Session (2)– moderator collects the estimation forms and plots the
sum of the effort from each form on a line:
Wideband Delphi
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Step 4: Estimation Session (3)– team resolves any issues or disagreements that are
brought up.– individual estimate times are not discussed.
Disagreements are usually about the tasks themselves.– Disagreements are often resolved by adding
assumptions.
Wideband Delphi: Estimation
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Step 4: Estimation Session (4)– team members each revise their individual estimates
and gives them to moderator.– The moderator updates the plot with the new total
Wideband Delphi: Estimation
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Step 4: Estimation Session (loop)– moderator leads the team through several rounds of
estimates to gain consensus on estimates.
Exit Criteria– The estimation session continues until the estimates
converge or the team is unwilling to revise estimates.– Process also ends if time limit (2 hours) has elapsed.
Wideband Delphi: Estimation
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First Pass
Second Pass
Third Pass
The Delphi Technique
Figure05-09
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The Three-Point Method, (SIX-Point Estimate Method)
O M PE
O: OptimisticP: PessimisticM: Most Likely
O + 4M + P6E =
Figure05-10
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Estimates Have a Life Cycle Too
time
range
You will be smarter tomorrowthan you are today.
Figure05-11
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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People Facilities Equipment Money Materials
Estimating Resource Requirements
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Assigning Staff to Activities
Figure05-12
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Single Point Estimate and Three Point Estimates
• Single Point Estimate– We take a single estimate per task
• Three point Estimate– We take three estimates per task
• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario• Most Likely Estimate
– Average the three estimates to get a three point estimate
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Three-Point Estimates
• Instead of providing activity estimates as a discretenumber, such as four weeks, it’s often helpful to create athree-point estimate:– An estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and
pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the optimistic,four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for thepessimistic estimate.
• Three-point estimates are needed for PERT estimates.• Six point Estimates
• (PERT: Project Evaluation & Review Techniques)
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• Three point EstimateExample:– Optimistic = 6 hours– Pessimistic = 10 hours– Most Likely = 8 hours
• The three point estimate is(6+10+8)/3 = 8 hours
Three-Point Estimate: Example
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Six-point Estimate (PERT)
– We take three estimates per task• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario• Most Likely Estimate
– Multiply the Most Likely estimate by 4, add to the Optimisticand Pessimistic estimates and divide by 6
(Pert Estimate: E = (O + 4M + P) / 6 )
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Example:– Optimistic = 6 hours– Pessimistic = 10 hours– Most Likely = 8 hours
• The six point estimate is(6+10+4x8)/6 = 8 hours
Six-Point Estimate (PERT): Example
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Resource Organizational Structure
Figure05-13
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Order of magnitude estimate Budget estimate Definitive estimate Cost Budgeting Cost Control Weekly reports Baseline versus actual
Estimating Cost
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Design
Build
Test
Install
time
Network-based Scheduling – Gantt Charts
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Network-based Scheduling – Task on the Arrow
Figure05-14
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Network-based Scheduling – Task on the node format
Figure05-15
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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ES
EID
LS LF
EF
SLACK
(ES: Early Start, EF: Early Finish, LS: Late Start, LF: Late Finish)
Figure05-16
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
Task Node
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Diagramming Conventions
Figure05-17
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Dependency Relationships
A B
A
B
A
B
B
FS: When A finishes, B may start
FF: When A finishes, B may finish
SS: When A starts, B may start
SF: When A starts, B may finishAFigure05-18
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Technical constraints Discretionary constraints Best practice constraints Logical constraints Unique requirements constraints
Management constraints Inter-project constraints Date constraints No earlier than No later than On this date
Lag variables
Dependency Constraints
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• The Forward Pass – Early Schedule– Left to right (start to finish)– Determines Early Start and Early Finish– ES + duration – 1 = EF
• Backward Pass – Late Schedule– Right to left (finish to start)– Determines Late Start and Late Finish– LF - duration + 1 = LS
Paths Through the Network
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Forward Pass Calculations – Early Schedule
Figure05-19
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Backward Pass Calculations – Late Schedule
Figure05-20
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Critical Path
Figure05-21
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ES LFDuration
SlackTask
Early Start to Late Finish Window
Figure05-22
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• Total Slack– Time that a task can be delayed without impacting the early
schedule of the project.
• Free Slack– Time a task can be delayed without impacting the early
schedule of its successor tasks.
Slack Time
Do Not Plan to Use Slackto Bail Out the Project!
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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1. Enter task name and duration into software tool2. Print PERT Diagram3. Cut out each task node and affix to a Sticky Note4. Write task ID # on Post-It Note5. Place Sticky Notes on right side of whiteboard6. Position start node on left side of whiteboard7. Move all tasks with no predecessor to left side and connect to
start node8. Move all tasks on the right side with predecessors on the left
side to the left side and connect with single line9. Continue until all task nodes have been moved to left side
Building the Initial Dependency Diagram
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Replace FS with SS dependencies
Replace a team member with a more skilled person
Add resources From non-critical path tasks to critical path tasks From other projects To where
critical path tasks high-risk tasks tasks with large duration variances
Schedule Compression TechniquesCh05: How to Plan a TPM Project
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Schedule Compression Iterations
Figure05-23
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Schedule compression doesn’t come free.
Schedule Compression
What is the impact on the project due to schedulecompression?
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DO NOT PAD ACTIVITY DURATION A percentage (5 – 10) of total project work hours The last activity in the project A schedule contingency for the unexpected Make it visible and manage it
Management Reserve
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Executive Summary Background Objective Overview of the approach to be taken Detailed statement of work Time and cost summary Appendices
Contents of the Project Proposal
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The cost/benefit is not in your favor The risks of failure are too high The total project cost exceeds available funding There are other projects competing for the same
resources
Gaining Approval to Launch the Project
Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project