MACRO-TRENDS SHAPING OPEN LIFELONG LEARNING
Jonatan Castaño Muñoz Christine Redecker
WS “OER FOR LLL”, Seville, 28-29 April 2013
Open Education
Demographics
Globalization
Economic Environment
ICT Revolution
Educational Environment
MACRO TRENDS
MACRO TRENDS
- Increasing adult population - Increasing adult learners. - Learning and cultural needs of many older people. - Workers & family responsibilities - Lifelong & on-work learning
DEMOGRAPHICS
Active Aging Adult learners
Inclusion of disadvantaged groups in education
Source: OECD, 2013.
MACRO TRENDS
• Global cultures - Interconnected world & shared cultures
- But also local… English as Internet Lingua Franca? And in education?
- How the use of different languages is linked to the quality and quantity of available information? How does it varies according to the language used?
GLOBALIZATION
Local needs
Language barriers
Global cultures
Cross-border collaborations
Global content
MACRO TRENDS
• .
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
New skills
Continuous Update
Specialization
Non-rivals goods
Employability
Knowledge economies
Economic crisis
Mismatch of skills
MACRO TRENDS
• ICT REVOLUTION ICT REVOLUTION
Big data & Learning Analythics
Web 2.0: Prosumer & Social component
Internet Users in the European Union
EUROPEAN UNION Internet Users, Penetration Facebook
30-Jun-12 (% Population) 31-Dec-12
Austria 6,559,355 79.80% 2,915,240
Belgium 8,489,901 81.30% 4,922,260
Bulgaria 3,589,347 51.00% 2,522,120
Cyprus 656,439 57.70% 582,600
Czech Republic 7,426,376 73.00% 3,834,620
Denmark 4,989,108 90.00% 3,037,700
Estonia 993,785 78.00% 501,680
Finland 4,703,480 89.40% 2,287,960
France 52,228,905 79.60% 25,624,760
Germany 67,483,860 83.00% 25,332,440
Greece 5,706,948 53.00% 3,845,820
Hungary 6,516,627 65.40% 4,265,960
Ireland 3,627,462 76.80% 2,183,760
Italy 35,800,000 58.40% 23,202,640
Latvia 1,570,925 71.70% 414,520
Lithuania 2,293,508 65.10% 1,118,500
Luxembourg 462,697 90.90% 227,520
Malta 282,648 69.00% 217,040
Netherlands 15,549,787 92.90% 7,554,940
Poland 24,940,902 64.90% 9,863,380
Portugal 5,950,449 55.20% 4,663,060
Romania 9,642,383 44.10% 5,374,980
Slovakia 4,337,868 79.10% 2,032,200
Slovenia 1,440,066 72.10% 730,160
Spain 31,606,233 67.20% 17,590,500
Sweden 8,441,718 92.70% 4,950,160
United Kingdom 52,731,209 83.60% 32,950,400
Total European Union 368,021,986 73.00% 192,746,920
Wide Internet Connexion
Closing the Skills gap? But what about the Ends divide…?
Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats9.htm
Mobile Connexion: Ubiquity
Semanthic web Augmented reality
Internet of things
MACRO TRENDS
- MIT Open Courseware
- 133 million total visits by 95 million visitors from all
over the world
- Average of 1 million visits per month
- 42% are students, 43% self-learners, 9% educators,
6% other
- cMOOCs:
- Usual number of course students: about 50,000 (to
180.000)
- Usual completion rates: about 10% (best rates about
20%)
- Coursera : 2,8 Milions of users from 200 countries.
327 Courses (march 2013)
- Share My Lesson: 254.000 Learning Resources (“by
teacher, for teachers”)
- Wikiwijs (NL): €8 million gov. funding 2011-2013; 65.000
lessons/courses and 800.000 objects (June 2012); 350.000
visits (year 2011)
•Poland “Digital School” programme (€13 million for
creation of free, open Textbooks)
•Glasgow Caledonian University Team Inventory
EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Global lack of HE supply
Fuzzy boundaries formal and informal learning
Education for profit
ICT and Openness in Education: - MOOCS - OER
European Commission Initiative on Opening Up
Education
Research on the future of Open
Education
2006-2008
Past IPTS research
2005 2009-2011
9
Individual
Teaching
Student
Guide
Hierarchical
Informal and Lifelong
certification/validation
Learning by doing
2
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
Learning Spaces
Learner
Social
Teacher
Rote Learning
Institutional Multiple ways
Formal
Heterarchical
Learning activity
user
action
mediator
interaction
pedagogy
context
16 years 8 years 14 years 23 years 42 years 59 years 55 years 75 years 32 years
I’m bored. Why
can’t I go to uni
already?
School? Forget it! I’m not
going back there!
Pedagogy remains important,
teachers need to learn from
one another
Why don’t they teach you
at uni what you need to
find a job?
I would like to
open my own
business...
I am highly qualified
– but my job has
become obsolete...
I need to improve my
soft skills, but I don’t
want them to know...
How do I qualify
for a new job
with my poor
CV?
How will E&T meet future learning needs?
How can demand & supply of skills be matched?
I don’t understand a
word. I want to go
home.
Future of Learning Starting Point
Demography Globalisation Immigration Technology
Drivers
Labour market trends & demands
Labour Market
Personalisation
Collaboration
Informalisation
Tailormade & targeted
Active & constructive
Motivating & engaging
Learner-
centred
Social
learning
Lifewide
learning
Peer-learning
Sharing & collaborating
In communities
Anywhere, anytime
Blending virtual & real
Combining
sources/providers
Initiative, resilience
Responsibility
Risk-taking, creativity
Social
skills
Learning
skills
Personal
skills
Education & Training New ways of learning New skills
Managing, organising
Meta-cognitive skills
Failing forward
Team-, networking
Empathy, compassion
Co-constructing
ICT Trends
Social networks Games Mobiles OER
Augmented Reality Data mining
3D virtual worlds LMS
Electronic tutors
ePortfolios e-books
Learning analytics
? ? ?
?
Future of Learning Storyline
Demography Globalisation Technology
Drivers
Labour market trends & demands
Labour Market
ICT Trends
Personalisation
Collaboration
Informalisation
Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging
Learner- centred
Social learning
Lifewide learning
Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities
Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining
sources/providers
Initiative, resilience Responsibility
Risk-taking, creativity
Social skills
Learning skills
Personal skills
Education & Training
New ways of learning New skills
Managing, organising Meta-cognitive skills
Failing forward
Team-, networking Empathy, compassion
Co-constructing
Social networks Games Mobiles OER
Augmented Reality Data mining
3D virtual worlds LMS
Electronic tutors
ePortfolios e-books
Learning analytics
? ? ?
?
© European Commission, 2011 Source: IPTS (2011): „The Future of Learning: Preparing for Change“, http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=4719
Workshop Methodology
Step 1: Identifying the critical issues
Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions
Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios
Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap
Low X High X
Low Y
High Y
-/+
-/-
+/+
+/-
Scenario A
Scenario C
Scenario B
Scenario D
Critical Factors for seizing the potential of OER for
Lifelong Learning in the Future
A Group Exercise
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
Dimension Ideal vision Means of achieving the
vision Barriers to be overcome
Knowledge gap / Inclusion How can the access to open education be broadened in the future?
Production of OER Who should produce the OER for LLL?
Quality How should quality of OER be assured in LLL?
Pedagogy How should learning and teaching with OER be different?
Recognition What should the certification, accreditation and recognition system be?
Economics of OER How should Open Education be financed? Which business models should be used?
Legal framework Which are the best legal instruments and incentives to support openness in LLL?
Any other dimension that is missing?
Universal Internet Access
ICT skills for all
Self-regulated learning
Career advice
Participative culture
Multilingual content
Resources adapted to context
Specific OER for LLL users
Common EU OER portal
All learning materials accessible online
Discoverability
Incl
usi
on
Importance Difficulty
Guidance
Peer support
Communities of practice
Self-directed learning
ePortfolios
Prosumers
No change
Modularity
Personalised instruction
Competence-based Assessment
Self-Assessment
Game-based learning
Contextualisation of online courses
Importance of teacher as guide/mentor/career advisor
Fluid learning
Personalised learning ecologies
Personalised combination of courses/modules/resources from different sources
Adapted to learning needs/preferences/paces
Ubiquitous learning: anywhere anytime
Flexibility in rhythms, schedules
Teachers and learners jointly produce and consume content
Ped
ago
gy
Importance Difficulty
Social learning
Co-creation
Subject communities
Official common quality frameworks
University leadership
Social and public rating
No established quality mechanisms
Quality assurance for technical aspects
Success as key indicator
Refinement through use
Common International frameworks
Common standards
EU-wide framework
Cross-sectoral
Same control mechanisms than now
Universities as reference for quality
Peer review
Rating by users
Expert recommendations
Users judge themselves what they find useful
Instructor chooses
Quality measured by output: user satisfaction; performance rates; student numbers etc.
Quality emerges as a result of re-using and re-mixing
Qu
alit
y A
ssu
ran
ce
Importance Difficulty
Interoperability standards
Ambient Intelligence
Internet of things
Semantic web
Easy to use creation tools
Learning Analytics
Automatic Language translation
Augmented Reality
Tech
no
logi
cal E
nab
lers
Importance Difficulty
Big Data
Everyone is producer
Learners are producers
Subject-/Topic communities
Networks
Market forces
Publishers/Experts
Educators/Teachers
Disaggregation
networks of different kind of producers
social production
collaborative production
embedded social production
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f O
ER
Production is something normal everybody does all the time
The learning process is based on learners' production and sharing of content
Importance Difficulty
Fragmentation
Unbundling
Multiple providers
Outsourcing
Public procurement or
For profit
e-Portfolios
Peer recognition
Expert recognition
Institutional certification of informal learning
External certification
Universal credit transfer
Automatic recognition
Open Badges
Endorsement
Rec
ogn
itio
n
Open Badges
Endorsement
Importance Difficulty
Common standards
International Boards
Accreditation by recognised (public/private) bodies
Free competition
Public funding
Institutional funding
Foundation/donation/sponsorship
Crowd-funding
Freemium
Volunteer work coordination
Membership
Re-channelling the funding from publishers to OER
Re-channelling money at institutional level
Micro-donations
Content free, extra services for payment
Wikipedia model
Eco
no
mic
s Importance Difficulty
Open licenses
Legal agreements on global collaboration
What is publicly funded should be publicly available
Creative commons
Legal agreements on EU/international level to facilitate OE
Public domain
Lega
l Fra
mew
ork
Importance Difficulty
What to do? • Read and understand all options listed • Is there:
– Any important issue missing? Add it! – Any issue irrelevant/redundant? Discard it! – Any two issues similar? Merge it! – Any issue ill-defined? Re-phrase it! – …
• Rate each issue on a scale from 0 to 10 on: – "important to achieve by 2030" (0=unimportant; 10=very important)
– "difficult to achieve by 2030" (0=very easy; 10=very difficult)
• Place each issue on the poster (according to the rating) • Fill in the excel sheet (according to the group rating)