Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership
Feb 2015
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update Latin America (LATAM) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2014–2019
Shruti Jain – Senior Analyst Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst
Usha Andra – Senior Analyst
2 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
VNI
3 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
By 2019:
Mobile Momentum
Metrics
2014 2019 7.4 Billion 11.5 Billion
2014 2019 1.7 Mbps 4.0 Mbps
2014 2019 4.3 Billion 5.2 Billion
2014 2019 55% of Traffic
72% of Traffic
4 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Latin America Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
By 2019:
Mobile Momentum
Metrics
2014 2019 770 Million 997 Million
2014 2019 1.4 Mbps 3.0 Mbps
2014 2019 472 Million 497 Million
2014 2019 53% of Traffic
72% of Traffic
5 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Overview
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By 2019, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes per year, up from 30 exabytes in 2014 (nearly 10-fold growth).
292X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
65 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)
6 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
7 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10.8 EB
2.5 EB
10.7 EB 6.8 EB
4.2 EB
16.1 EB
24.3 EB
Exabytes per Month
8 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
0.2 0.4 0.6
0.9
1.4
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exabytes per Month
9 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Country Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rest of LATAM Brazil
Mexico Argentina
Chile
39%
30%
7% 6%
20%
4%
Exabytes per Month
10 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Year in Review—2014 Strong Growth Reported Worldwide
China ● Mobile data traffic of China’s top 3 mobile operators grew 83% from mid-2013 to mid-2014
Japan ● Mobile data traffic grew 43% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014, according to Japan’s MIC
India ● Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 95% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014 ● Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 75% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014
Australia ● As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 52% from mid-2013 to mid-2014*
Italy ● As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 45% Y/Y*
France ● As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 107% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014*
Germany ● As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 71% in 2013*
Sweden ● As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 32 percent from mid-2013 to mid-2014
Korea ● As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 36% between 1H13 and 1H14
Other ● Vodafone’s European traffic grew 60% from 1Q 13-14 to 1Q14-15*
COUNTRY TREND US ● As reported by CTIA, mobile data traffic grew 120% in 2013*
11 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (72%) from 2014–2019 APAC will Generate 39% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
15.7%
39.1%
9.9%
12.5%
7.3%
14.4% Exabytes per Month
8.4%
12 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)
2014 2019 GLOBAL Global MB per Month
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Latin America
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
585
1,893 916
431 466
627
353
4,406
11,029 5,808
3,181 3,954
8,299
3,746
Asia-Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
13 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
3 Hours of Video
10 Video Calls
3 Hours of Audio
4 App Downloads
16 Hours of Video
15 Video Calls
10 Hours of Audio
20 App Downloads
2014 2019 585 MB Traffic/month
4.4 GB Traffic/month
14 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2014 to 2019 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth
Note: The numbers above pertain to 2019, and the CAGR’s are for 2014–2019 period.
Western Europe
REGION No. of Mobile
Users
Asia Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
North America
No. of Mobile Devices / M2M
No. of Users 2GB / Month
Average Mobile Speed
Mobile Data Traffic
2.8B Users +5% (CAGR)
5.4B Connects +8% (CAGR)
844 Users +46% (CAGR)
3.5 Mbps +12% (CAGR)
9.5 EBs / Mo. +58% (CAGR)
407M Users +1% (CAGR)
1.0B Connects +8% (CAGR)
497M Users +3% (CAGR)
799M Users +7% (CAGR)
320M Users +2% (CAGR)
383M Users +1 (CAGR)
179M Users +49% (CAGR)
3.7 Mbps +18% (CAGR)
3.5 EBs / Mo. +71% (CAGR)
997M Connects +5% (CAGR)
169M Users +51% (CAGR)
2.9 Mbps +16% (CAGR)
2.0 EBs / Mo. +59% (CAGR)
1.7B Connects +7% (CAGR)
269M Users +56% (CAGR)
2.1 Mbps +29% (CAGR)
3.0 EBs / Mo. +72% (CAGR)
1.2B Connects +22% (CAGR)
161M Users +14% (CAGR)
6.4 Mbps +18% (CAGR)
3.8 EBs / Mo. +47% (CAGR)
1.2M Connects +14% (CAGR)
147M Users +26% (CAGR)
4.7 Mbps +18% (CAGR)
2.4 EBs / Mo. +48% (CAGR)
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Drivers
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Global Mobile Users From 4.3 Billion in 2014 to 5.2 Billion by 2019 at 4.3% CAGR Global Mobile Users Growing 4X Faster than Global Population
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014: 294 M 2019: 320 M CAGR 1.7%
2014: 367 M 2019: 383 M CAGR 0.8%
2014: 382 M 2019: 407 M CAGR 1.3%
2014: 427 M 2019: 497 M CAGR 3.1%
2014: 561 M 2019: 799 M CAGR 7.3%
2014: 2,228 M 2019: 2,844 M CAGR 5.0%
17 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.4 Billion in 2014 to 11.5 Billion by 2019 at 9% CAGR
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014: 432 M 2019: 1,155 M CAGR 21.7%
2014: 612 M 2019: 1,179 M CAGR 14.0%
2014: 690 M 2019: 1,025 M CAGR 8.2%
2014: 770 M 2019: 997 M CAGR 5.3%
2014: 1,200 M 2019: 1,676 M CAGR 6.9%
2014: 3,733 M 2019: 5,439 M CAGR 7.8%
18 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will Double from 1.7 Mbps (2014) to 3.9 Mbps (2019)
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2.27-fold Growth 2.8 to 6.4 Mbps
2.3-fold Growth 2.0 to 4.7 Mbps
2.27-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.7 Mbps
2.1-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.9 Mbps
3.6-fold Growth 0.6 to 2.1 Mbps
1.7-fold Growth 2.0 to 3.1 Mbps
19 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2019, Video Will Drive 72% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2014
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
75% of traffic by 2019 54% CAGR
74% of traffic by 2019 56% CAGR
70% of traffic by 2019 83% CAGR
72% of traffic by 2019 69% CAGR
68% of traffic by 2019 84% CAGR
71% of traffic by 2019 67% CAGR
20 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 10-Fold from 2.5 EB/month in 2014 to 24.3 EB/month by 2019
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
6.8-fold Growth 563 to 3,823 PB/mo
7.1-fold Growth 341 to 2,414 PB/mo
14.4-fold Growth 242 to 3,496 PB/mo
10.1-fold Growth 201 to 2,035 PB/mo
15.3-fold Growth 199 to 3,043 PB/mo
9.7-fold Growth 977 to 9,503 PB/mo
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
21 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
23 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Nearly 40%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.2%) Tablets (1%,3%) Laptops (3%,2%) M2M (7%,28%) Smartphones (29%,40%) Non-Smartphones (61%,27%)
9% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
24 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Latin America Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Over 47%
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.1%) Tablets (1%,3%) Laptops (3%,3%) M2M (6%,21%) Smartphones (26%,47%) Non-Smartphones (63%,26%)
5% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
25 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 54% Share of Total Devices & Connections
9% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections
54% 49% 43% 37% 31% 26%
46% 51% 57%
63% 69% 74%
* Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
26 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 59% Share of Total Connections
7% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections
59% 52% 44% 37% 31% 26%
41% 48% 56%
63% 69% 74%
* Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
*Excludes LPWA
27 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019 Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
26%
72% 48%
20% 24%
18%
11%
59%
89% 78%
61% 56%
62%
41%
Latin America
*Excludes LPWA
28 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Globally, in 2014, a smart device generated 22 times more traffic than a non-smart device.
* Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
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Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2019, Smart Devices Will Have 97% Share of Traffic
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Traffic Smart Traffic
97%
95% 94%
92% 90% 88% 12%
3%
5%
6%
8% 10%
57% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
30 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019 Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
88%
99% 95%
85% 86%
77%
78%
97%
100% 99%
98% 96%
96%
93%
Latin America
31 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
32 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
44% 62%
32%
6%
26%
22%
45%
38%
15%
Billions of Devices or
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2% 8%
*Includes M2M
33 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
0.3%
66%
33%
1%
55%
21%
52%
8%
Billions of Devices or
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
23%
*Includes M2M
40%
34 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Global 21% 44% 26% 8% BY REGION
Asia Pacific 23% 46% 26% 5%
Central and Eastern Europe 20% 51% 22% 7%
Latin America 23% 55% 21% 0.3%
Middle East and Africa 32% 54% 14% 0.2%
North America 5% 20% 42% 32%
Western Europe 15% 31% 38% 15%
*Includes M2M, Includes LPWA
35 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
48% 62%
31%
7%
31%
21%
45%
38%
17%
Billions of Devices or
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
*Excludes M2M
36 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G
Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
58% 65%
34%
1%
24%
18%
55%
37%
9%
Billions of Devices or
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
*Excludes M2M
37 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share – M2M
35%
67%
32% 1%
29%
23% 42%
38%
7%
Billions of Devices or
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
13%
13%
38 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Millions of M2M
Connections
Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share – M2M
46%
84%
16% 0.2%
43%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
1%
39 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
40 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
67%
1%
Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 7-Fold from 2014-2019; By 2019, Nearly Half of Global M2M Connections Will Be 3G or Better
32%
35%
29%
23%
3.2 B
2.3 B
1.6 B
1.1 B 0.7 B
0.5 B
* In 2014, 4G accounts for 1% and LPWA accounts for 0.2% of global mobile M2M connections.
45% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of M2M
Connections
13%
41 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
84%
1%
Latin America M2M Connection Growth Latin American M2M Connections will Grow 4-Fold from 2014-2019; By 2019, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will Be 3G or Better
16%
46%
10%
43%
205 M
161 M 124 M
93 M 67 M
48 M
* In 2014, 4G accounts for 0.2% and LPWA accounts for 0.0% of LATAM mobile M2M connections.
34% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Millions of M2M
Connections
42 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
By 2019, M2M modules will be 28% of total global mobile devices and connections and will account for 5% (1.2 EBs/month) of mobile data traffic.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
43 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
109 M
441 M
1.9%
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 5-Fold from 2014-2019; By 2019, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
578 M
236 M 170 M
325 M
40% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Millions of Connected Wearables
% with Embedded
Cellular Connectivity
7.3%
44 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Western Europe (18%,18%) North America (30%,33%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (6%,5%) Central & Eastern Europe (8%,9%) Asia Pacific (34%,32%)
441 M
109 M
Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Have the Largest Share by 2019
578 M
326 M
236 M 171 M
40% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Millions of Connected Wearables
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices share
45 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Wearable Device Usage Wearable Camera Use Case Scenario (300 MB/Hour)
Only 2 hours of wearable
camera usage* can generate more than the
average monthly traffic per typical user in 2014.
*Assumes live streaming over a cellular network
46 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
15 33 61
106
175
277
2.0%
9.1%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 18-Fold from 2014-2019
78% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Monthly Traffic (PB)
% Embedded Cellular Traffic
47 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Western Europe (10%,12%) North America (37%,39%) Middle East & Africa (2%,3%) Latin America (2%,3%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,9%) Asia Pacific (44%,34%)
Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America will Maintain the Largest Share
78% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Monthly Traffic (PB)
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices traffic share
48 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
49 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,7%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,19%)
Mobile Video (55%,72%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 mobile data traffic shares
50 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,7%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (38%,19%)
Mobile Video (53%,72%)
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Account for 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share
51 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
81% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90%
19% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
Mobile Cloud Traffic
Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2014 Cloud will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
• IP Voice • File Sharing • File/App Downloading
• Video Streaming • Audio Streaming • Online Gaming • Social Networking • Web Browsing • Online Storage
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
52 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Traffic Generating Smartphone Apps Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps
(Smartphone) Facebook Social Media
YouTube Video Streaming
Browser Web Browsing
Netflix Video Streaming
Maps Utilities
Spotify Audio Streaming
Instagram Image Sharing
WhatsApp Communications
tinyCam Monitor Video Monitoring
SoundCloud Audio Streaming
Hulu Plus Video Streaming
Email Communications
Pandora Audio Streaming
Twitter Communications
Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Smartphone)
Facebook Social Media
YouTube Video Streaming
Browser Web Browsing
Netflix Video Streaming
Instagram Image Sharing
WhatsApp Communications
Spotify Audio Streaming
Tumblr Social Media
Skype Communications
Dropbox Cloud File Storage
Email Communications
Skydrive Cloud File Storage
Viber Communications
Hulu Plus Video Streaming Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
53 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Traffic Generating Tablet Apps Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps
(Tablet) YouTube Video Streaming
Browser Web Browsing
Facebook Social Media
4shared Social Media
TubeMate Video Downloading
Crunchyroll Video Streaming
TV 2 Sporten Video Streaming
Instagram Image Sharing
O2 TV Video Streaming
EA Games Online Gaming
Viber Communications
Maps Utilities
Ztory Publication
VPN Business Application
Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Tablet)
YouTube Video Streaming
Netflix Video Streaming
Browser Web Browsing
Facebook Social Media
tinyCam Monitor Video Monitoring
Xfinity TV Player Video Streaming
Showtime Anytime Video Streaming
Twitch TV Video Streaming
VLC Video Player Video Streaming
Spotify Audio Streaming
TWCable TV Video Streaming
CANAL+ Video Streaming
TuneIN Radio Audio Streaming
NY Times Publication Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
54 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
55 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 54% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 46% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014
46%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
56 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 35% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014
54%
46%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
57 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2G 3G 4G
Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic
Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2019 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G
57% 46% 44%
56% 54% 43% Mobile and
Offload Traffic from
Mobile-Connected
Devices
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
58 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 70% by 2019. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 54% by 2019.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 *Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
59 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
37%
51%
12%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
21% CAGR 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
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0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (67% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (22% CAGR)
LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Exceeds Fixed/Wired Traffic
29%
56%
15%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
21% CAGR 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
62 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
• Wi-Fi capacity trading
• Transaction platform
• Internet of things
• Context awareness
• HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile
• Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)
Total Incremental Hotspots
Existing Growth Future
• Pay-as-you-go
• Free access driving other services (Retail free Wi-Fi)
• Managed services (venues and outdoor)
• Cellular offload (user driven)
• Added value for broadband subscription
• Advertising and sponsorship
• Cellular offload (carrier driven)
• Community Wi-Fi/homespots
• Carrier-grade VoWiFi
• TV everywhere
• Large events
• Big data analytics
• Public transportation Wi-Fi
Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability
Total Public WLAN
Hotspots 2014: 6.9M
2019: 14.7M
Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots
2014: 34.2M 2019: 54.9M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
63 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VoWiFi VoLTE VoIP
71%
VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2018 VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2019
53%
41% Minutes of
Use (Trillions) per Year
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
6% 29%
64 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VoWiFi Traffic VoLTE Traffic VoIP
VoWiFi Traffic Exceeds VoLTE by 2017 VoWiFi Will Be More Widely Available than VoLTE
Petabytes per Year
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
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Wi-Fi Connects Nearly 3.5x Cellular Connected Tablets and PCs by 2019
# of Cellular Capable Devices 542 Million
Tablets PCs
# of Wi-Fi Capable Devices 1.9 Billion
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
67 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Support 68% of Mobile Traffic by 2019
40%
68%
30%
10% 50%
2%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In LATAM, 4G Will Support 55% of Mobile Traffic by 2019
10%
55%
43%
14% 76%
2%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
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Globally, in 2014, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo, 10X higher than the 217 MB/mo for non-4G connections.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
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In Latin America, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo in 2014, 9X higher than the 238 MB/mo for non-4G connections.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 64% Higher than Average Hour in 2014, 84% in 2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Tbps
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Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019 Global MB per Month
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
339
1,302 558
261 262
351
166
2,120
3,308 2,048
2,042 1,747
3,412
1,815
Latin America
GLOBAL
73 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Mobile Device Data Traffic 2014 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop 119 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
94 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
37 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
3 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
74 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Average Cellular Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Note: In 2014, 4G smartphones generated 2GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3GBs/month. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
MBs per Month MBs per Month
70 366
141 479
819 3,981
2,076 10,767
2,641 5,589
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop
Non-Smartphone 22 105
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Average Cellular Traffic Per Device Type (LATAM)
Note: In 2014, 4G smartphones generated 1.3GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 5GBs/month. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
MBs per Month MBs per Month
40 339
56 289
537 2,823
3,105 14,549
2,824 6,288
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop
Non-Smartphone 7 36
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
77 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019 Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) Will Grow at a 19% CAGR—Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
1.7
2.8 2.0
1.4 2.0
1.6
0.6
3.9
6.4 4.7
2.9 3.5
3.7
2.1
Latin America
GLOBAL
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Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
2014 2019 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
8.1
12.3 11.0
5.7 11.3
10.7
4.6
10.2
15.1 15.4
9.3 16.1
15.7
8.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
79 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tablets Smartphones All Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.3x Higher than Average by 2019 Smartphone Speeds are 2.6x Higher than Average by 2019
13 Mbps
10 Mbps
4 Mbps
Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
80 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tablets Smartphones All Mobile Devices
LATAM Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 2.3x Higher than Average by 2019 Smartphone Speeds are 1.8x Higher than Average by 2019
6.6 Mbps
5.4 Mbps
3.0 Mbps
Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4G 3G All Network Types 2G
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 4X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 1.2X Higher than Average by 2019
14.2 Mbps
5 Mbps
110 Kbps 4 Mbps
Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
82 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4G 3G All Network Types 2G
LATAM Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 2.9X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be Nearly Equal to Average by 2019
8.5 Mbps
3.0 Mbps
90 Kbps 2.0 Mbps
Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
83 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
84 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
52%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-10 Jun-14
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2014 Top 1 Percent Generates 18 Percent in June 2014
Percentage of Top 1
Percent to Total MB/mo.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
85 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top 20% Users Consume 85% of Monthly Traffic
18%
46% 65%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Top Tier Percentage
Usage (June 2014)
86 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top 20% Users Consume nearly 4 Gigabytes per month *
15.2
7.6 5.3
3.5 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Top Tier Percentage
Usage (June 2014)
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7% 25%
79%
96%
99%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
Greater than 5 GB
Greater than 2 GB
Greater than 200 MB
Greater than 20 MB
Greater than 1 MB
7 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 25 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month *
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Percentage of Users
(June 2014)
88 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
894 MB/mo
1.3 GB/mo
1.3 GB/mo
1.6 GB/mo
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Android iOS
Jun-14 Oct-13
iOS Usage Surpasses Android
46% of plans 54% of plans 42% of plans 58% of plans
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Megabytes per Month
89 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption *
63% of plans 55% of plans
37% of plans 45% of plans
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tier 1 Operators All Operators
Unlimited
Tiered
0.98 GB
1.9 GB 2.6 GB
1.1 GB
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Percentage Number of
Mobile Data Plans
(June 2014)
90 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Number of Shared Plans Increase Shared plan usage growing marginally faster than regular plans *
21% of plans 28% of plans
79% of plans 72% of plans
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-13 Jun-14
Regular Plans
Shared Plans
865 MB
1.1 GB
1.5 GB
1.3 GB
Percentage Number of
Mobile Data Plans
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
91 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption
92 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.0B
Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2019, 59% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable
6.2B
25% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Number of Devices
(B)
93 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
201M
LATAM IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2019, 62% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable
617M
25% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Number of Devices
(B)
94 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bill
ions
12.6
Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2019, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 52% of Mobile Data Traffic
0.3
107% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
95 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bill
ions
1.1
LATAM IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2019, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 56% of Mobile Data Traffic
0.03
108% CAGR 2014–2019
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
96 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Conclusion
97 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018 Key Takeaways / Summary
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Global Mobile Data Traffic
Global Mobile Traffic Offload
Global Mobile Network Speeds
Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic
Global Mobile Devices/Connections
Global Mobile Video
By 2019, mobile data traffic will reach 24.3 EBs/per month (292 EBs annually).
By 2019, 54% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
By 2019, smart devices will generate 97% of global mobile data traffic.
By 2019, over 72% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.
By 2019, avg mobile connection speed will more than double (1.7 Mbps to 4.0 Mbps).
By 2019, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita globally.
Global Mobile Users By 2019, there will be 5.2 Billion global mobile users, representing 69% of the global population.
98 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI LATAM Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018 Key Takeaways / Summary
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic
LATAM Mobile Traffic Offload
LATAM Mobile Network Speeds
LATAM Mobile Smart Devices Traffic
LATAM Mobile Devices/Connections
LATAM Mobile Video
By 2019, mobile data traffic will reach 2.0 EBs/per month (24.4 EBs annually).
By 2019, 46% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
By 2019, smart devices will generate 61% of LATAM’s mobile data traffic.
By 2019, over 72% of LATAM’s mobile data traffic will be video.
By 2019, avg mobile connection speed will more than double (1.4 Mbps to 3.0 Mbps).
By 2019, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita in Latin America (LATAM).
LATAM Mobile Users By 2019, there will be 497 Million LATAM mobile users, representing 76% of the LATAM population.
99 © 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2014–2019 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]