Michiel van Eupen,
Alterra Wageningen UniversityTechnical & Networking Session 1.1
Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+; How useful are land use change models?
UNEP, WCMC, IIASA, Warsaw, 16 November 2013
Land Use Change Modelling in the ROBIN project; a multi-scale idea
Climate ChangeMitigation
Biodiversity
What is ROBIN?
Land Use Change
“Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+; how useful are land use change models?”.
Continental Main Objective:
further use by vegetation models like LPJm /JULES
+ ESS modelling at continental scale
Entire South- + Meso-America: 1km scale resolution,
limited amount of land use classes equal in each country
Based on available (world ) datasets
Focussing on major (generic) socio-economic pathways+ knowledge
Using CLUE-s land use change model
Regional (=landscape?) Main Objective:
regional policy evaluation Finding relevant thresholds
at regional scale policies to see to what level up- and
downscaling is relevant Different regional scales: Amazone,
country (Mexico), detailed case stud. extended land use classes,
regionally specific Using regional, specific data
Specific regional policy scenarios Using CLUE –s/Dinamica &
Participative modelling tools
Role of Land Use Modelling in ROBIN
Continental: CLUE model structure
CLUE will provide:• yearly output maps
of future land use and hence, ageing
),0N(~, 2εXβY
Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005
First preliminary run of CLUE.(to be improved in the short term)
Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005
First preliminary run of CLUE.(to be improved in the short term)
QUICKScan participatory approach for creating maps + rules
INPUT DATASCENARIO LAND
USE MAP / INDICATOR
RULES TO COMBINE
THEMINPUT DATA
SCENARIO LAND USE MAP / INDICATOR
RULES TO COMBINE
THEM
E.g.: The highest
deforestation rates are
found, near new roads
nearby existing pasture
areas, outside protected
areas
CLUE:),0N(~, 2εXβY
Workflow combining Maps & Rules
Output Map
Map and compare alternatives
Statisticsper adm.unitTrace back to
Rules used
Rules used
QUICKScan changes land cover Pantanal
• pioneer vegetation in the Caronal
• dryer forest + other type savana
• More flooding in south, northwest
• Wet forest on fan
Effects of floodings due to upstream erosion & climate conditions
CLUE approach is ‘needed’ generic method to translate demands/changes in to patterns. link with existing models etc.
On the land scape scale models like CLUE needs to be linked to the policy + planning issues not easy
Policies are made by people (policy makers....not modellers):
“Useful for who?” The Policy maker or the scientist? The policymaker needs to TRUST the model output. Model s should be transparent enough to judge the effect of
the assumptions
How useful are land use change models on the land scape scale?”
Focus on policy development current limiting factors land-use planning?