Bringing stand level fire risk to the landscape
level: Fire risk assessment using FFE-FVS with the Landscape Management System.
Kevin CederAnd
James McCarterWestern Mensurationists Meeting
22 June 2004
Overview
• Landscape organization– Stands and larger scale
considerations
• Overview of the Landscape Management System
• Examples of fire risk analysis using LMS with FFE-FVS and LMS-FFE Add On
Stands: The typical analysis unit
• A unit to create a unique area with relatively uniform characteristics– Vegetation type– Disturbance history
• Data collected at a stand level
• Tools developed to use stand level data– Growth models– Fire behavior and
effects models
Landscape: Ecological and Ownership Level
• An assemblage of stands• Planning and
management on ownerships occur at a multi-stand or landscape scale
• Wildlife often ignore stand boundaries and will use a multi-stand area
• Disturbances can operate at a multi-stand level– Wind: ’21 Blow on
Olympic Peninsula– Fire: Biscuit fire
Fires can work at landscape level
Scaling from Stand to Landscape
• Need to assess at larger than stand scale, but we know the most about inventory at the stand level
• The Landscape Management System (LMS) brings together stand level growth models and stand level tree lists and aggregates them into a landscape for growth, treatment, and analysis with a user-friendly interface.
The Landscape Management System
• A platform that bring together numerous programs – Growth models– Stand and
landscape visualization
– Stand treatment programs
– Analysis tables
LMS ComponentsLMS Interface
Analysis Tables
Over 50 analysis tables
Visualization
SVS
EnVision
Treatment and Disturbance Simulation
LMS Portfolio:Data Files
Tree List Inventories
Site and Topographic
data
Spatial Data (optional)
Growth Simulation
FVS
ORGANON
Other Models
LMS Data Requirements
• Stand level information– Site quality variables, age, area
• Tree inventory information– “tree list” (individual tree data with
expansion factors), Need Species, Diameter, and TPA, better to also have Height and Crown ratio
• Spatial information (for landscape analysis and visualization)– Need elevation model (USGS DEM, SDTS,
ESRI ASCII Grid – converted to PC-Plans DTM format), map of stand boundaries (ERSI shapefile or MOSS file), can add other spatial features (roads, streams, trails, etc)
Alternative Strategies for Design, Layout, and
Administration of Fuel Removal Projects
•Fremont National Forest
•502 plots
•928,499 forested acres
•Okanogan National Forest
•413 plots
•763,885 forested acres
Thinning prescriptions
1) Remove 9” and below2) Remove 50% Basal Area (BA) from
below3) Leave 45 ft2/acre BA from below4) Remove 12” and greater5) Wildfire Simulation6) No Action
Forest Condition 2000 2010 2035
Below 50% BA
Below 45 ft^2 BA
Below 9”
Forest Condition 2000 2010
2035
Above 12”
Wildfire
No action
Risk reduction performance of Half BA and BA 45 treatments may result from the addition of 10-12” DBH trees to what otherwise is the 9”& Under treatment.
Stands where 9”&Under is effective can be identified.
Simulations with regeneration demonstrate the need for future controlled burns or thinnings.
Okanogan high risk with regen
LMS-FFE Add On: Linking fire tools into
LMS• All variants of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE)
for the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model
• The LMS-FFE Configuration Tool• LMS tables linked to FFE-FVS outputs• The Fire Scoping Tool
– The Fire Scoping Report spreadsheet– Risk Mapper ESRI ArcView project file
• The LMS-FFE Add-on is not installed with the main LMS install and must be installed separately after downloading from the LMS website: http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/ or from the LMS CD.
Enabling FFE-FVS in LMS
LMS - Fire Scoping Interface
• Used to View FFE Variable Distributions
• Select potential fire weather conditions
• Select risk classification variable and thresholds
• Create graphical and tabular or map output
Example of Using LMS with FFE
• ColvilleExam portfolio– Section of South Deep watershed on
Colville NF– Portfolio is installed with LMS
• Treat all stands removing all trees <9” DBH in 2005
• Simulate prescribed fire in 2010• Examine fire risk and risk change with
Fire Scoping Tool– Risk Scoping Report– Risk Mapper
Location of Colville Exam
• NE Washington• 4344 ac• 125 stands• 3039 – 4789
feet• Mixed conifer• QMD 1 – 9”• 55 stands with
SDI >=350
Steps
• Set up simulations– Scenario file for LMS– Set prescribed fire year and
conditions• Run simulations • Initial conditions and risk
classification variable examination• Select risk variable and limits• Fire scoping to assess risk
Risk Classification: Which Variable?
• Fire Scoping Tool allows use of 5 FFE output variables– Crowning Index– Torching Index– Fire Type– Flame Length– % BA Mortality
• Limits for risk class can be set for local conditions
• FFE Variable Distribution report lets user examine distributions to choose appropriate variable and class limits
Choosing Risk Classification: FFE
Variable Distributions
Initial Risk Conditions
Crowning Index:High: <25Moderate: 25 - 50Low: >50
BA Mortality:High: >50%Moderate: 15 – 50%Low: <15%
Initial Risk Conditions
• Set variable and limits in Fire Scoping Tool
• Run Scoping with output to Spreadsheet
• Fire Risk graphs and tables created in Fire Scoping spreadsheet
Fire Risk Graphs and Tables
• Fire conditions• Fire risk distributions• Stand attribute
distributions segmented by risk class:– Elevation– QMD– TPA– BA– SDI– Dominant species– Stand structure
• FFE variable distributions segmented by risk class– Crowning index– Torching index– % BA mortality– Flame length– Fire type– Canopy fuel base
height– Canopy bulk density
Fire Risk Graphs
Did the Risk Change?
Why Did the Risk Change
Moved to Low risk: Pre-treatment: CI=20Post-treatment: CI=75
Still High Risk: Pre-treatment: CI=18Post-treatment: CI=21
Where is the risk?Risk Mapping
• Custom ESRI ArcView project designed to make maps from data from LMS
• Python programs classify FFE output data and creates input file for mapping
Risk Mapping
Avenue ScriptArcView Map
FFE Output Python Program
ESRI ArcView GIS
Landscape Management System
Conclusions…
• LMS brings stand level data and tools together in a landscape context
• Stand level fire risk models are available and becoming more mature and usable
• Integration of tools provide enhanced analytical capability
• Stand level fire risk models don’t provide link between stands (contagion)
• Landscape level fire risk models also available, but need to be easier to use and access information
• Easy to use interfaces required for use and adoption of tools