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Juárez at a Crossroads:
from a Juárez Strategic Plan Optical Approach
Presented at:
Border Trade Alliance ConferenceSecurity and Safety: The Impact of Cross-Border Trade
February 23-24, 2009
Mexico, D.F.
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Juárez Strategic Plan AssociationCentral Objetive:
Promote the organization of the community so that public, private and social institutions, together,
elaborate and implement a
Strategic Plan for Juárez that contemplates all dimensions of
development with the aim of substantially improving the quality of life of the city.
A long-term, comprehensive development strategy for Juárez
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Why a Strategic Plan for Juárez?
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JUAREZ
KEY CHALLENGE:to achieve
sustained growth with
sustainable development
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JUAREZ SNAPSHOT (+)
• Strategic geographic location• High economic growth vis-à-vis the rest of Mexico• Hard-working, dynamic and entrepreneurial people• Maquiladora Sector (global production sharing)
• High FDI levels; strong industrial-park infrastructure • International reputation for its manufacturing base
(presence of over 70 Fortune 500 firms)• State-of-the-art technology• Technical, engineering and R&D centers (Delphi MTC)
• Strategic alliances and linkages with the local economy• Tight link with the U.S. economy (U.S.-demand-driven) • Considerable employment impact
Source: Mexico NOW
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JUAREZ SNAPSHOT (-)• POPULATION: 1.5 million approx.; Mexico’s 5th-largest city
Traditionally, high population growth through in-migration
• SIGNIFICANT UNDERDEVELOPMENT: – 580,000 residents in some form of poverty– Estimated cost to improve conditions in poverty areas: US$ 3.3 billion – Annual city budget: US$ 275 million
• KEY PROBLEMS / BOTTLENECKS:• Basic services• Housing • Health • Education• Road pavement• Security and safety, narcotics traffic• Increasingly negative image through crime/violence situation
• Incorporation of results of previous phases
• Draf of the Plan: strategies, actions and projects
• Follow-up groups and mechanisms
• Public presentation and approval of the Plan:
La Propuesta: VISION 2015
• Public forumsPublic forums
• Scenario Analysis
• First list of initiatives and projectsFirst list of initiatives and projects
• Project forumsProject forums
• Analysis of existing data and informationAnalysis of existing data and information
• Project Task Forces
• Diagnostic analysis
2002–2004 Calendar2002–2004 Calendar Phases of the PlanPhases of the Plan Principal tasksPrincipal tasks
• Vision or city model
DEFINITION OF DEFINITION OF TASKS TASKS
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK
DIAGNOSISDIAGNOSIS
DEFINITION OF DEFINITION OF PROJECTSPROJECTS
IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION AND FOLLOW-UPAND FOLLOW-UP
MayMay
March 2004March 2004
SeptemberSeptember
September 2002September 2002
February 2003February 2003
PRINCIPAL PHASES AND TASKS OF PLAN JUÁREZ
• Analysis of preliminary information and interviews of Steering Committee members
• Pre-assessment Pre-assessment ““¿Quién es Juárez?”¿Quién es Juárez?”
December 2003 December 2003
• Interviews of specialists
• Population survey
• Public opinion pollPublic opinion poll
September 2004September 2004
October 2004October 2004
• “ “El Juárez que queremos” El Juárez que queremos”
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Plan JuárezCitizen Participation
Consultation and participation of the community at large
(representation of all sectors)
Total: 14,000+ personas
VISIONEl Juárez que queremos
Juárez, head of a metropolitan binational region, a socially-integrated place with a high
quality of life, a center of educational excellence
and cultural creation with a dynamic economy
highly capable of generating quality employment
and wealth among its citizens.
The Juárez we envision
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The Juárez we envision
VISION
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Metropolitan infrastructure development
Comprehensive neighborhood development
Civic interaction
Pact for education Pact for culture
Recovery of the city’s
historical heritage
Juárez, city of expositions and
conventions
Promotion and recruitmentof high value-added
investments
Juárez, automotive center
Promotion of localentrepreneurial
activities
Governance and binational cooperation
Pact for sustainable
mobility
Sustainable development of the
new Juárez
New financing model for Juárez
Health industry development
and promotion
Juárez, bilingual city Juárez, safe city
New image for Juárez
Strategic Projects, engines of change to achieve the Juárez we envision
Juárez, cabecera de una reunión metropolitana binacional
Juárez, espacio de convivencia conun alto desarrollo social y
elevados estándares de calidad de vida
Juárez, Centro de excelencia
educativa y de creación cultural
Juárez, economía pujante
generadora de riqueza y alto valor agregado
Eje 1 Eje 2
Eje 3 Eje 4
El Juárezque queremos
(Visión)
El Juárezque queremos
(Visión)
Racionalización e impulso
a las infraestrctucturas
Metrópoli Binacional
Nuevas Centralidades
Apuesta por la identidad y
culturas propias
Nuevas formasde gobernabilidad
Metropolitana
Marco de relaciones
Estatal y FederalCiudad Bilingue
Espacio de covivenciacon alto
desarrollo social
Lucha contra lainseguiridad,
violencia e impunidad
CIudad de derechos
Viviendas y barrios
más dignos
Acceso universal
servicios básicos de calidad
Movilidadsostenible y
transportepúblico
Pacto por unadesarrollosostenible
Calidad Educativa
Refuerzo a laformaciónprofesional
Centro de referencia
en educaciónsuperior e
investigación de la frontera norte
Mosaico cultural y plataforma
para la creación artística
Programa de impuslo y
mejora de los equipamientos
culturales
Ciudad atractiva para las
inversiones de alto
valor agregado
Desarrollo de nuevas
centralidade económicas
Apuesta por sl sector
servicios
Estrategia integral
de turismo, entretenimiento
y cultura
Marco favorable a las inciativas empresariales
Mejorar y optimizar la
obtención de fondos
y recursos financieros
Polo logístico
Centro de negcios Ponaf-Wordl Trade Center
Area para la implantación de
empresas de software
La industria de la salud
Observatorio económico empresarial
Política pro-activa
de promoción y captación de inversiones
Plan de impulso a la innovacióncomo fuente de
desarrollo económico
Desarrollo de laindustria
automotríz
Política activa de suelo para actividades económicas
Grupos de proyecto identificados
Impulso al comercio
“histórico”
Plan de Marketing
de la ciudad
Programa de impulso de los
servicios a empresas
Centro de exposiciones y convenciones
Oficina única del
empresario
Productos turísticosde Juárez
Centro para nuevos
emprendedores
Concurso de ideas
innovadoras
Programa de Incentivos“forntera
emprende”
Pacto-interInstitucional para lograr
más recursos
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Implementation Stage
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SD1: Binational Metropolis “Green” and Ecological Network
SD 2: Social Development Integral Neighborhood Development
SD 3: Educational Excellence and Cultural Creation Network of Art, Science and Knowledge Education Forum / Education Promotion InstituteSD 4: Thriving, wealth-generating and high value added
economy Expo and Convention Center Promotion and recruitment of high value added investments
(Competitiveness/Benchmarking Study to identify strategic niches)
PLAN JUAREZ Implementation: Pilot or Initial Projects
PLAN JUAREZ Implementation: Pilot or Initial Projects
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Implementation Results:
not as expected given the planning tool
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Where the Plan is Now:
the importance of Governance
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The Juárez we envision
VISION
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Juárez Strategic Plan Mandate…a commitment to improve governance in Juárez
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Directrices y Principios que guían el Pacto por la Gobernabilidad de Juárez
Pact for Governance in Juárez
7 Key Principles Respect for laws and institutions
A citizenry aware of its rights and respectful of its obligations
Citizen participation in the formulation and implementation of public policies
Efficiency, efficacy and promotion of objective evaluation and measurement as a basic tool of improvement
Professionalism of public sector functions
Transparency, accountability and elimination of corruption
Exemplary conduct of leadership, especially of public administration officials
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Where Juárez is Now:at a crossroads of the
“perfect storm”(the security and economic crisis)
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Crisis conditions in:• Security/public safety:
2008: 1,600+ organized crime related homicides
2009 crime-related deaths:
• January: 154 • February (through the 22nd): 204 (February 10: 28 in 1 day)
2009 most recent developments:• Resignation of top security city official
• Attempt on Chihuahua governor’s life
• Death threats to city mayor and family
JUAREZ 2008 and into 2009
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Crisis conditions in:
• Economy:– Maquiladora sector on a decline:
Hit by acute downturn in U.S./global economic cycle
– Business sector closures due to security crisis
. . . extorsions, kidnappings, robbery/assault…indirect impact through maquiladora downturn
JUAREZ 2008 and into 2009
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Juárez Maquiladora Crisis
The evidence: • Some 53,000 jobs lost between Nov 07 and Dec 08
From an employment base of 245K+ to just under 192K)
• 10,000 employees laid off in January 2009
• 20,000 employees from 56 plants have been furloughed (paros técnicos)
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Crisis conditions…Maquiladoras: Now also a direct target of crime beyond the
impact the security factors have on the business climate
The evidence:– Kidnapping of a top manager
– Employees: – Victims of various crimes
– Daily stress of constant vigilance (from just going to or coming from work; from the risk of being a victim at any moment) depresses morale and therefore productivity
– High-level employees quitting, fleeing (joining the flight of others…some toEP)
– New potential recruits refusing to accept Juarez assignments
– Some personnel now refusing to cross into Juarez; remain in EP
JUAREZ 2008 and into 2009
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Juárez Maquiladora Sector
• Motor and anchor of the city’s economy• Synchronicity with U.S. business cycle: All maquiladora downturns due to any U.S. economic
deceleration have always been accompanied by the appropriate rebound in the industry in line with any U.S. economic recovery
• NOW:Maquiladora investors questioning the soundness of
remaining in Juarez given the climate of crime and violence in the city.
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Juárez Maquiladora Sector
Is permanent loss of foreign investment for Juarez a possibility?
Even if it’s hard to just assume it (FDI) all away, losing the presence of juts one company like DELPHI in Juarez (with its different operations, including the MTC) would deal a $750 billion annual blow/loss to the Juarez economy.
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Governance Implications on Overall Competitiveness
and Development
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Competitiveness:
“A solid and stable macroeconomic environment is not sufficient for sustained economic growth…
…we understand national competitiveness to be the combination of factors, public policies and institutions that determine the level of a country’s productivity.”
--Global Competitiveness Report
World Economic Forum
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12 PILLARS of factors that determine Productivity and Competitiveness:
Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic stability Health and primary education Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market sophistication Technological readiness Market size Business sophistication Innovation
World Economic ForumWorld Economic Forum:Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)
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1 United States
2 Switzerland
3 Denmark4 Sweden5 Singapore6 Finland7 Germany8 Netherlands9 Japan10 Canada…17 Taiwan……
28 Chile…… 30 China
GCI 2008-2009 Country Rankings
35 Kuwait……50 India...…55 Indonesia…58 Panama…
60 MÉXICO60 MÉXICO…64 Brazil…105 Venezuela……134 Chad
Source: The Global Competitiveness Report, 2008-2009
MEXICO Ranking2007: 2006: 52 59
MEXICO Ranking2007: 2006: 52 59
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1st Pillar: Institutions
To evaluate the effectiveness of public institutions, the GCI uilitzes the following five criteria:
Respect for private property rights
Ethical government performance and level of corruption
Independent judiciary and degree to which the government allows freedom to the private sector to operate or the degree to which the government utilizes discretionary and interventionary practices (concepts of “undue influence” by government)
Government inefficiency reflected in waste of public resources and a high regulatory burden
The ability to provide an environment suitable for economic activity characterized by appropriate public security
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)
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1 Singapore2 Finland…29 United States…37 Chile …53 India … 56 China …93 Kenya …97 MEXICO…134 Venezuela
GCI 2008-2009 Country Rankings1st Pillar: Institutions
Source: The Global Competitiveness Report, 2008-2009
MEXICO Ranking 2006: 2007: 69 85
MEXICO Ranking 2006: 2007: 69 85
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Hacia el 2030, los mexicanos vemos a México como un país de leyes, donde nuestras familias y nuestro patrimonio están seguros, y podemos ejercer sin restricciones nuestras libertades y derechos; un país con una economía altamente competitiva que crece de manera dinámica y sostenida, generando empleos suficientes y bien remunerados; un país con igualdad de oportunidades para todos, donde los mexicanos ejercen plenamente sus derechos sociales y la pobreza se ha erradicado; un país con un desarrollo sustentable en el que existe una cultura de respeto y conservación del medio ambiente; una nación plenamente democrática en donde los gobernantes rinden cuentas claras a los ciudadanos, en el que los actores políticos trabajan de forma corresponsable y construyen acuerdos para impulsar el desarrollo permanente del país; una nación que ha consolidado una relación madura y equitativa con América del Norte, que ejerce un liderazgo en América Latina y mantiene una política exterior activa en la promoción del desarrollo, la estabilidad y la seguridad nacional e internacional.
VISIÓN 2030:El México que queremos
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VISIÓN 2030:El México que queremos
METAS
1. Estado de derecho y seguridad
2. Economía competitiva y generadora de empleos
3. Igualdad de oportunidades
4. Sustentabilidad ambiental
5. Democracia efectiva y política exterior responsable
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VISIÓN 2030:El México que queremos
GOALS
• Rule of Law target indicators:– Institutional strength:
• NOW: 97/134 WEF GCI Index ranking;
• 2030: 1st quintile
– Impunity: • NOW: 2.3/100 crimes solved of those reported
• 2030: 70% resolution rate of crimes reported
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Metropolitan infrastructure development
Comprehensive neighborhood development
Civic interaction
Pact for education Pact for culture
Recovery of the city’s
historical heritage
Juárez, city of expositions and
conventions
Promotion and recruitmentof high value-added
investments
Juárez, automotive center
Promotion of localentrepreneurial
activities
Governance and binational cooperation
Pact for sustainable
mobility
Sustainable development of the
new Juárez
New financing model for Juárez
Health industry development
and promotion
Juárez, bilingual city Juárez, safe city
New image for Juárez
Strategic Projects, engines of change to achieve the Juárez we envision
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The Bi-national approach• U.S.-Mexico international trade = $349 billion
• A large proportion is maquiladora-driven (intra-industry trade in manufactures)
• A sizable proportion of maquiladora investment fueling U.S.-Mexico trade is located at the U.S.-Mexico border
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• Parallel U.S.-Mexico (illicit) international trade in narcotics
• Source of an estimated $35 billion to $65 billion to the cartels
• The U.S.-Mexico border, as the trans-shipment point of any kind of trade, is the “battleground” for this activity.
The Bi-national approach
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• Mexico has its homework to do:– Rule of law; Governance …
• The U.S. has its own homework to do by:– Providing support for Mexico on the “war on drugs” (The Merida Initiative)
– Applying the “war on drugs” at home: dismantling the internal drugs distribution network; addressing the
arms trade linked to the cartels and, foremost in my view, curtailing its huge demand for narcotics or proceeding to legalize the source of this illicit/lucrative trade
– Providing additional direct support to Mexico:• Military incursion in collaboration with the Mexican state• Intelligence infrastructure (human and technological)• Protection on U.S. side of the border:
– Juarez mayor JRF just offered protection from his EP counterpart
The Bi-national approach
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GRACIAS
www.planjuarez.org
www.pactoporjuarez.org