SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOURISM IN CHINA:
A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
DR JULIE JIE WEN SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND
PSYCHOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN SYDNEY
AUSTRALIA
Issues to Be Covered in This Presentation
• Tourism in China: overview
• Dominance of the coastal areas in major tourism indicators
• Implications of regional disparity
China’s Inbound Tourism Arrivals(m) Receipts(US$b) Rooms(m)
1986 22.8 1.53 0.15
1996 51.1 10.2 0.59
1999 72.8 14.1 0.89
2000 83.4 16.2 0.95
2010 98.6 19.1 1.20
2020 forecast: 130 mn
(-NTA) What implications from these figures?
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Coastal and Inland China• China’s coastal area: three municipalities & nine
provinces; the remaining 19 localities are ‘inland’ or ‘interior’
Figure 1 Map of China
12 coastal localities
three municipalities and nine provinces: Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan.
Proportion of the coastal areas in China’s tourism distribution
Receipts arrivals employees rooms
1986 93.5 85.7 83.3 78.1
1992 89.5 84.0 77.4 71.2
1998 84.8 78.9 72.9 70.2
2006 85 80 59 58
2012 78 72 53 5
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Regional distribution and Gini coefficient
• Gini: indication of the level of inequality in distribution. 0: complete equality; 1: complete inequality
• Would Gini get lower as economy grows?
• Regional convergence or divergence?
• Gini: indication of the level of inequality in distribution. 0: complete equality; 1: complete inequality
• Would Gini get lower as economy grows?
• Regional convergence or divergence?
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Trends over 28 yearsTable 2 Gini Coefficients for Major International Tourism Indicators in China
Receipts Tourist arrivals
Number of hotel employees
Number of hotel rooms
1986 0.8374 0.7577 0.7344 0.6344 1988 0.7297 0.7276 0.5766 0.5978 1990 0.7988 0.7412 0.5941 0.5236 1992 0.7472 0.7049 0.6090 0.5361 1994 0.7446 0.6706 0.5815 0.5208 1996 0.7443 0.6701 0.5812 0.5203 1998 0.6903 0.6428 0.5810 0.5128 2000 0.6881 0.6387 0.4432 0.4667 2002 0.6728 0.6361 0.3957 0.3956 2004 0.6635 0.6277 0.3897 0.3901 2006 0.6631 0.628 0.382 0.382 2008 0.6636 0.626 0.385 0.383 2010 2012
0.671 0.668
0.624 0.625
0.382 0.383
0.378 0.381
Interpreting the figures• Decreasing Gini coefficient for tourism distribution in China• Increase in both real term and proportion for major indicators
for tourism in inland China• Improvement in infrastructure and tourist facilities in inland• Growth of nature based tourism• Encouraging domestic tourism• Regional convergence in tourism versus divergence in the
general economy