www.irstea.fr
Pour mieux
affirmer
ses missions,
le Cemagref
devient Irstea
June 11th-13th 2013
Institution d’Aménagement de la Vilaine
DROP meeting and visit
Drought Team
2
Objectives of the project
Developing a tool that integrates hydrological forecasting and multi-uses management of the Arzal dam
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
forecasts
Dam management
scenarios Management
model
Hydrological
Model
3
Exploratory analysis of data collected
Focus on May-October period Low flow period
Interannual daily mean of precipitations and flows
Characterisation of flows and low flows
4
The hydrological model
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
forecasts
Dam management
scenarios Management
model
Hydrological
Model
5
The hydrological model
Existing conceptual rainfall-runoff model
Daily
6 parameters
Developed specifically for low flows
Inputs: meteorological data (P, T, E)
Past observed data
Mid-term forecasts and past observed data
Seasonal forecasts (?)
Outputs: hydrological forecasts
GR6J structure (Pushpalatha et al., 2011)
6
The hydrological model
Meteorological forecasts (P)
Hydrological forecasts (Q)
Current and Future work: Exploratory analysis of data collected
How to select relevant forecasts among past observed data ?
How to efficiently present results for an operational use in risk anticipation ?
Day of
forecast
Target
period
n precipitation scenarios
n flow simulations
Hydrological Model
(Pushpalatha, 2013)
7
The management model
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
forecasts
Dam management
scenarios
Hydrological
Model
GR6J
Management
model
Hydrological
Model
Hydrological
forecasts
Hydrological
forecasts
Hydrological
forecasts
8
The management model
Will take into account all water uses
Drinking water
Fishway
Boating
Inputs: possible scenarios of water inflows for coming period
Outputs:
Possible management scenarios
Related impacts on uses
Experience on water management in the team:
Climaware project (Charles Perrin and Guillaume Thirel) Optimisation of management rules for dams upstream the Seine river
Maria-Helena Ramos also has experience on water management issues PhD work on optimisation of the management of a power dam based on power profitability
9
Past events
Meeting of PhD students: Poster on the Arzal dam
22-23 April 2013: PhD School
7 June 2013: Irstea
Participation to EGU presentation
9-12 April 2013
I contributed to the preparation of a game that was presented at
EGU …which you will try! It was prepared together with Helena
(Irstea), F. Pappenberger (ECMWF), SJ van Andel (UNESCO) and
A. Wood (NOAA). We are preparing a paper on the results
10
To come
EMS conference in Reading in Septembre 2013
Presentation of hydrological forecasts obtained from mid-term
precipitation forecasts combined with climatological data.
Development of operational graphs for drought forecasting.
Abstract accepted
Stay at ECMWF/CEPMMT also in Reading (with F. Pappenberger)
Meteorological forecasts: data will be collected to enrich our
database of meteorological forecasts and tried as forcings to the
GR6J model to evaluate their potential predictability for
hydrological purposes.
11
…
Thank you for your attention!