IPCC
Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical
system
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Peter Bosch
TSU IPCC WG III
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IPCC Working group I, the physical science basis
• ….Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-21th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations…..
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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
• …. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases…..
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IPCC Working group III, mitigation
• …. There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels…..
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G8 conclusions of the chair:
Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Energy Security:
……………... We noted with concern the recent IPCC report and its findings. We are convinced that urgent and concerted action is needed and accept our responsibility to show leadership in tackling climate change. ………….
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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Water availability projections: • 10-40% up in high latitudes & some wet tropical
areas• 10-30% down in dry regions in mid latitudes and
in the dry tropics
More drought, more flood risk
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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Crop productivity: • Projected to increase slightly at mid to
high latitudes (with +1-3 ºC) depending on the crop
• Projected to decrease at lower latitudes, esp. in seasonally dry and tropical regions, for even small temp. increases (1-2 ºC)
Adaptations: altered cultivars and planting times
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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Forestry: • Globally commercial timber
productivity projected to increase modestly in short-medium term
Fisheries: • Regional changes in distribution and
production of fish species. Adverse effects for aquaculture and fisheries
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Settlements • Most vulnerable industries, settlements and
societies in coastal and river flood plains. Human health: • Increase in malnutrition• Increased death, injury, disease due to extreme
events• Increased burden of diarrhoeal disease• Altered distribution of infectious disease factors
IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
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Agricultural statistics
Forestry statistics
Fisheries statistics
Population statistics
Health statistics
Energy statistics
Summarising: with a view on adaptation to climate change
increasing interest in:
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Between 1970 and 2004 global
greenhouse gas emissions have
increased by 70 %
Total GHG emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
GtCO2-eq/yr
IPCC Working group III, mitigation of climate change
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Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor
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With current climate change mitigation policies, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades
• IPCC SRES scenarios: 25-90 %
increase of GHG emissions
in 2030 relative to 2000 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
A1F
1
A2
A1B
A1T B
1B
2
95th
75th
med
ian
25th 5th
A2
A1F
1
B2
A1B
A1T B
195
th
75th
med
ian
25th 5th
2030
GtCO2eq/yr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
A1F
1 A2
A1B A1T B
1B
295
th75
thm
edia
n25
th 5th A2
A1F
1B
2A
1B A1T B
195
th75
thm
edia
n25
th 5th
F-Gases
N2O
CH4
CO2
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Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could offset the projected growth of global emissions, or
reduce emissions below current levels
• Both bottom-up and top-down studies
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
BOTTOM-UP TOP-DOWN
Global economic potential in 2030
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What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean?
• Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrel
• Gasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)
• Electricity:– from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWh– from gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh
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All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute (end-use based)
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
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How can emissions be reduced?
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected)
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Energy Supply
efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewables (tidal and wave
energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
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How can emissions be reduced?
(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning
Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable
batteries
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Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissions
Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture
Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and airconditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings
How can emissions be reduced?
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Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation
• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.
• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems
• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport
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What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?
Trajectories towards
stabilization levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
MedianGDP reduction
[1](%)
Range of GDP reduction [2]
(%)
Reduction of average annual GDP growth
rates [3] (percentage points)
590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06
535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1
445-535[4] Not available < 3 < 0.12
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
•Costs are global average for least cost approaches from top-down models
•Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages
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There are also co-benefits of mitigation
• Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
• Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment
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Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and
emission reductions • The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2
emissions have to peak
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
ld C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (
GtC
)
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilization targets:
Post-SRES (max)
Post-SRES (min)
Eq
uil
ibriu
m g
lob
al
mea
n t
em
pera
ture
inc
rease
ove
r
pre
ind
us
tria
l(°C
)
GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
ld C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (
GtC
)
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilization targets:
Post-SRES (max)
Post-SRES (min)
Eq
uil
ibriu
m g
lob
al
mea
n t
em
pera
ture
inc
rease
ove
r
pre
ind
us
tria
l(°C
)
GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
IPCC
An effective carbon-price signal could realise
significant mitigation potential in all sectors • Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.
• Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation
• For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030
(5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)
• At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected
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Investments
• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.
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The importance of technology policies
• The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades
• Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment
• BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades: now about half of 1980 level.
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Environment statistics (emissions, waste management, environmental expenditures)
Energy balances Transport statistics (modal split, fuel use, types and length of
journeys)Land-use statistics (aff/deforestation) Agricultural & Forestry statistics: (energy crops production,
area changes, management changes)Trade statistics (flows of energy and energy crops) National Accounts (system integration to produce various
efficiency indicators, information for decomposition analysis, dedicated R&D expenditures
Summarising: with a view on mitigation
of climate change increasing interest in:
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