March 1, 2007
Introduction• The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the
Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC) comprise the Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA).
• PEFA worked with the Loudon County Mayor’s Office, Lenoir City Schools, and Loudon County Schools to evaluate education facility needs.
March 1, 2007
IntroductionProject Components• Overview of recent trends in public school enrollment,
demographics, and land development in Loudon County.
• Countywide, school-by-school, and bus zone enrollment projections.
• Comparison of enrollments (actual and projected) to facility capacities.
• Assessment of physical condition of all public school buildings.
March 1, 2007
Demographic Trends
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsCountywide Enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07• Total enrollment in regular day classes across Loudon
County (including Lenoir City) showed average annual increase of 1.1 percent in past 5 years, reaching 7,200 students this year.
• Elementary schools (K-5) combined for a 6.6 percent increase since 2002/03.
• High schools added 3.4 percent, while middle school grades gained a modest 2.2 percent in five years.
March 1, 2007
COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2002/03-2006/07
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
School Year
Enro
llmen
t
Elementary (K-5) Middle (6-8) High (9-12)
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsPre-School Enrollment• Enrollments DO NOT INCLUDE pre-school, currently
comprising about 250 children countywide.• Children are not required to attend pre-school.• Many private pre-kindergarten opportunities exist in
Loudon County.• Not practical to model decision-making processes of
families in terms of pre-school participation.
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsPre-School Enrollment• Although enrollments were excluded, classroom space
dedicated to pre-school education was addressed.• Rooms assigned to pre-school instruction were set aside
and reserved for future pre-school use, not re-assigned to current or future K-12 enrollments.
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsOut-Of-County (OOC) Enrollment• In 2002/03, OOC students totaled nearly 700, about 10
percent of countywide enrollment.• That number dropped to just under 600 students this
year, when OOC policy changed.• OOC students no longer allowed to transfer into Loudon
system unless:– they are children of school employees. – they have sibling currently attending same school
in which they would be eligible to enroll.• OOC students already in system can remain through
graduation.
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsGeneral Population Trends• Between 1990 and 2000, Loudon County’s population
grew at an average annual increase of 2.5 percent.
• In past five years, pace slowed to 2.2 percent growth annually, with total population currently at 43,387.
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsGeneral Population Trends• School-age children (5-19 years old) steadily lost shares
of total population between 1980 and 2000, dropping from 24 percent of total to 18 percent.
• Population 55 years and over grew 4.7 percent per year during 1990s.
• By 2020, the number of persons aged 55 years and over will increase to 22,300, representing nearly 40 percent of the county population.
March 1, 2007
Demographic TrendsSources of Population Growth• Migration was primary determinant of population
growth in past six years. • Domestic rather than international migration.• More than 8,600 current residents are new to Loudon
County, having lived in a different county or state in 1995.
March 1, 2007
LOUDON COUNTY NET MIGRATION, 2001-2005
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Net
Mig
ratio
n
Total Net Migration 5-Year Average (822)
March 1, 2007
Development Trends
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsRecent Rates of New Home Construction• Pace of residential construction activity accelerated
during 1990s in Loudon County.• First half of 1990s: average of 406 new homes
constructed annually, which was double the rate recorded in the 1980s.
• Second half of 1990s: pace increased again, with 508 homes built each year.
• Rates have remained at that level for the past six years.
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsRecreation/Retirement-Oriented Development• Loudon County is rapidly growing as center for
lifestyles oriented to lakefront, golf, luxury, and retirement living, evidenced by large-scale residential projects like Tellico Village and Rarity Bay.
• 5,800 building lots approved in Tellico Village, with about 2,800 homes currently in place.
• Thousands more homesites platted: Tennessee National (1,700 sites), Rarity Pointe (1,200 sites), and, currently under review, Rarity Landings (1,500 sites).
• Expecting few families with school-age children.
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsConventional Development• Growth areas include recently-sewered corridor of
northeast Loudon County and an area northwest of Lenoir City.
• Several subdivisions platted or underway.• Expecting many families with school-age children.
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsConventional Development• Development in the identified single-family growth
areas has averaged about 105 new homes per year since 2000.
• Placement of sewer lines likely to accelerate residential construction, but growth controls (impact fees) might offset gains if developers balk at additional building costs.
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsStudent Yields• Very few families that purchase homes in
recreation/retirement/luxury developments have children of school-age.
• Fewer than 100 school-age children in Tellico Village.• Tellico Village: 0.03 school children per housing unit.
Equates to 3 children for every 100 homes.
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsStudent YieldsIn conventional housing developments:• Detached units generate 0.494 children under 18 years
of age, per unit.• Attached (townhomes/condominiums): 0.160• Apartments: 0.689 • Mobile homes: 0.725
March 1, 2007
Development TrendsStudent Yields - Example• Detached housing yield of 0.494 children per unit.• 100 new detached homes: approximately 49 children
expected.• Does not mean that 49 children will enter public school
system.• 25 percent of those children will be under age 5.• 4.8 percent, on average, will be homeschooled or will
attend some form of private education.• Original generation of 49 children will net about 35
children that will likely enter public school.
March 1, 2007
Enrollment Projections
March 1, 2007
Enrollment ProjectionsSeries of 10-year projections (2007-2016) for Loudon
County and Lenoir City schools• Three scales of reporting:
– countywide.– school-by-school.– bus zones.
March 1, 2007
Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Baseline:
– Assumed growth trends of past five years will continue over next 10 years.
– Births will grow in number, but at slow pace.
March 1, 2007
Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Moderate:
– Assumed in-migration will be consistent with past two years and continue over next 10 years.
– There will be more kindergartners than births (five years earlier) over next 10 years.
– Births will increase moderately over next 10 years.
March 1, 2007
Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Accelerated:
– Same as moderate for migration and kindergartners.
– Births will increase over next 10 years.– Residential construction in northeast portion of
county and northwest Lenoir City will grow faster than previous years.
March 1, 2007
Enrollment ProjectionsMethodology SummaryThe 10-year enrollment projection model relied on the
following data:• Actual school enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07.• Grade progression ratios, 2002/03-2006/07.• Actual births, 1990-2004.• Projected births, 2005-2011.• Kindergarten-to-birth ratios, 2002/03-2006/07. • Residential growth factor.
March 1, 2007
Countywide Projections
14.93212474Projected: Accelerated9.72092362Projected: Moderate7.71662319Projected: Baseline
2153Current enrollmentHIGH (Grades 9-12)
10.61841911Projected: Accelerated6.31091836Projected: Moderate3.9681795Projected: Baseline
1727Current enrollmentMIDDLE (Grades 6-8)
11.03703720Projected: Accelerated7.12373587Projected: Moderate4.41493499Projected: Baseline
3350Current enrollmentELEMENTARY (Grades K-5)
12.18748104Projected: Accelerated7.75557785Projected: Moderate5.33837613Projected: Baseline
7230Current enrollmentCOUNTYWIDE
2006-20162006-20162016/172006/07Year% GrowthGrowthEnrollmentEnrollment
March 1, 2007
COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT: ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
School Year
Enro
llmen
t
Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario
March 1, 2007
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRADES (K-5): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
School Year
Enro
llmen
t
Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario
March 1, 2007
MIDDLE SCHOOL GRADES (6-8): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
School Year
Enro
llmen
t
Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario
March 1, 2007
HIGH SCHOOL GRADES (9-12): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
School Year
Enro
llmen
t
Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario
March 1, 2007
School-By-School Projections(Accelerated Growth)
SCHOOL-BY-SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO
810276687229Total868786717Loudon HS
136913231194Lenoir City HS
921880857North MS
423403375Lenoir City MS
458451383Fort Loudoun MS
724678684Greenback
514520526Philadelphia ES
271252237Steekee ES
579549512Loudon ES
706651612Lenoir City ES
486450418Highland Park ES
782724713Eaton ES
2016/172011/122006/07School
March 1, 2007
Bus Zone Projections(Accelerated Growth)
BUS ZONE ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO
810376697229Total854789771Greenback
601586617Philadelphia
682649677Steekee
137812901052Loudon
168115801416Lenoir City
121311181056Highland Park
169416571640Eaton
2016/172011/122006/07Bus Zone
March 1, 2007
Facility Capacity
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacitySchool System’s Ability to Serve its PopulationOver-Capacity:• Class sizes exceed accepted teacher-pupil ratios;
inability to adequately provide support services (cafeteria, parking, site access); auditoriums, gymnasiums, libraries, storage rooms serve as classroom space.
• Requires hiring of additional faculty.• Portable classrooms, building wings, entire facilities
might be needed.• Conditions of distraction and disruption, a poor
environment for learning.
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacitySchool System’s Ability to Serve its PopulationUnder-Capacity:• Inefficient to operate physical plant that is not fully
utilized.• Often unable to offer courses, programs, and extra-
curricular activities available at fully-utilized facilities.
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacityFloor Area Capacity (Square Footage Per Student)• Often used by architects when designing new facilities.• Ratio of number of students to total building floor area.• Ratio compared to adopted standards: 150 square feet
per elementary student, 170 sf per middle schooler, and 190 sf for high school students.
• Mechanistic standard, detached from important programmatic considerations.
• Modern measures applied to facilities built decades ago when different sets of building/campus elements were considered important.
• Useful to evaluate expansions or new facilities.
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacityDesign Capacity• Count number of classrooms in school and multiply by
maximum class size (standard teacher-pupil ratio).• Limited by lack of attention to program-specific
facilities.• Curriculum-neutral: allows administrators flexibility
when evaluating building space. During shortages, look at raw inventories to see how much room is available, irrespective of classroom use; adjustments made to programs as necessary to meet space demands.
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacityFunctional Capacity• Accommodates school curriculum. • Current usage of educational program space and pre-
determined number of students assigned to each space (based on pupil-teacher ratios) comprise basic formula.
• According to school administrators, a more realistic measure of capacity.
• Lower than design capacity: excludes floor area dedicated to special uses and incorporates utilizationfactor that further reduces carrying capacity, under rationale that scheduling requirements make it impossible to assign students to all teaching stations every period of every day.
March 1, 2007
Facility CapacityCapacity Thresholds• If facility has reached 100 percent or more of its design
or functional capacity, it is fully occupied.• Professional educators warn that when enrollments
reach 80 to 90 percent of design and functional limits, it’s time to start looking at future enrollments, potential space needs, and options to alleviate strains.
• Don’t wait until buildings are completely full before taking action.
• This study uses 90 percent capacity threshold.
March 1, 2007
Findings
March 1, 2007
FindingsCurrent Conditions• Eaton ES, Ft. Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, Lenoir City
ES facing functional capacity strains.• Loudon ES exceeded functional capacity: 52-seat
shortage (2.1 classrooms). Also reached design capacity.
• All except Lenoir City MS show floor area shortages.
March 1, 2007
FindingsCurrent Conditions• Countywide, 69% of design capacity for 12-school
system is in use.• Countywide, 84% of functional capacity occupied.• Shortages are result of uneven distribution of students
rather than lack of systemwide room to handle total enrollment.
SCHOOL CAPACITY AND CURRENT ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2006/07
56.283.786327228Total3.374.1320237Steekee ES6.077.7677526Philadelphia ES7.083.01033857North MS9.176.0944717Loudon HS
(2.1)111.3460512Loudon ES6.370.6531375Lenoir City MS
14.177.215471194Lenoir City HS0.996.4635612Lenoir City ES0.199.5420418Highland Park ES8.875.7904684Greenback0.299.0387383Fort Loudoun MS2.592.0775713Eaton ES
Surplusin Use (%)Capacity2006/07SCHOOLShortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollment
ClassroomFunctional
March 1, 2007
FindingsFuture Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)• Countywide enrollments will grow to 7,700 students:
more classroom shortages will emerge.• Same five schools facing current pressures will see
strains worsen: functional capacity in use will exceed 100% at four facilities.
• Shortages will not be drastic, but additions of 10 classrooms will be necessary.
• Countywide total enrollment will push functional capacity near 90% threshold.
March 1, 2007
FindingsFuture Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)• Loudon ES and Ft. Loudoun MS will have design capacity
deficiencies.• All except Lenoir City MS will show floor area shortfalls.
SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 5-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2011/12
38.688.886327667Total2.778.8320252Steekee ES6.376.8677520Philadelphia ES6.185.21033880North MS6.383.3944786Loudon HS
(3.6)119.3460549Loudon ES5.175.9531403Lenoir City MS9.085.515471323Lenoir City HS
(0.6)102.5635651Lenoir City ES(1.2)107.1420450Highland Park ES
9.075.0904678Greenback(2.6)116.6387451Fort Loudoun MS
2.093.4775724Eaton ESSurplusin Use (%)Capacity2011/12SCHOOL
Shortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollmentClassroomFunctional
March 1, 2007
FindingsFuture conditions – Ten Years (2016/17)• By 2016, six schools will experience functional capacity
shortages: the five schools identified as immediate and five-year pressure points, plus Loudon HS.
• 12-school system will exceed functional capacity threshold of 90%, hitting nearly 94% in use with its 8,100 students.
• Total of 15 classrooms will be needed. • Fort Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, and Loudon ES will
have design capacity shortages. • All 12 schools will fail in floor area standards.
SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 10-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2016/17
21.293.886328101Total2.084.7320271Steekee ES6.576.0677514Philadelphia ES4.589.21033921North MS3.092.0944868Loudon HS
(4.8)125.9460579Loudon ES4.379.6531423Lenoir City MS7.188.515471369Lenoir City HS
(2.8)111.2635706Lenoir City ES(2.6)115.7420486Highland Park ES
7.280.1904724Greenback(2.9)118.4387458Fort Loudoun MS(0.3)100.9775782Eaton ES
Surplusin Use (%)Capacity2016/17SCHOOLShortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollment
ClassroomFunctional
March 1, 2007
FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• Pre-school classrooms set aside from facility capacity
calculations and reserved for current pre-school enrollments.
• Classrooms not re-assigned for K-12 use. • School officials contend pre-school education will
become increasingly pressing issue in terms of space demands in next few years, especially if Governor’s Office opens public school systems to all four-year-old children.
March 1, 2007
FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• Currently 252 pre-school children in Loudon County and
Lenoir City.• According to population projections, there will be
about 575 four-year-olds living in Loudon County by 2015.
March 1, 2007
FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• In next 10 years, if it is assumed all 4-year-olds will be
provided pre-school instruction, and maximum room size remains at 20 children, there will be need for 29 pre-school classrooms.
• 17 pre-K classrooms currently in place.• 12 additional rooms will be needed.• Allocate additional rooms across seven facilities
offering elementary instruction (roughly two additional classrooms per ES).
March 1, 2007
Physical Assessment
March 1, 2007
Physical AssessmentProperties Inspected• 13 facilities assessed in November 2006:
– 3 Lenoir City schools.– 9 Loudon County schools, plus Professional
Development Center.• Assessments performed by experts in fields of
architecture, mechanical, and electrical systems, hired by PBA.
March 1, 2007
Bonding Capacity• Currently no available bond capacity at the existing
tax rate.• Provision of additional bond capacity to fund school
construction would require a tax increase.
March 1, 2007
www.knoxmpc.orgDownloads:
• Enrollment projections and school capacities report.• Physical assessment report.
• Presentation.