Insights, H1 2016
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M&A Insights | H1 20162
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Regional insights10 Western Europe11 AsiaPacific(InludingGreaterChina)12 U.S. 13 CEEandCIS14 MiddleEastandNorthAfrica15 Sub-SaharanAfrica16 India17 Latin America
A global snapshot28 Top20globaloutboundacquirers
andinboundtargetmarkets30 Toptargetmarketsforthe
world’slargestacquiringcountries
Sector insights19 Privateequity20 Consumer 21 EnergyandInfrastructure22 Financialservices24 Lifesciences24 Mining26 Telecoms,mediaandtechnology
6In focus6 Chinaoutbound–thepaceaccelerates
4Executive summary4 Executivesummary5 GlobalM&Ainnumbers
Contents
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The economic and political uncertainties that have depressed M&A markets for most of the year were dramatically compounded by the unexpected outcome of the UK Referendum in June. Brexit is likely to reduce significantly activity for the rest of the year, although at present investors seem to be pausing for thought and taking stock, rather than abandoning the market altogether.
Executive summary: Taking stock of a changed world
H1 KEY THEMES INCLUDE:
BREXITWILLIMPACTM&A
M&AmarketsusuallyfalterattimesofuncertaintyandwebelievetheUK’sshockvotetoleavetheEuropeanUnion,withalltheeconomicandpoliticalupheavalitwillcause,willsignificantlydepresstransactionactivityinthemonthsahead,atleastuntilinvestorshaveaclearerviewoftheimplicationsofBrexit.
OTHERUNCERTAINTIES CONSTRAINGROWTH
Othersignificantissuesareweighingoninvestors’ mindstoo–notleast,persistentworriesaboutslowereconomicgrowthinChina,theoutcomeofNovember’sU.S.presidentialelections,thedirectionofinterest ratepolicy,unrestintheMiddleEastandcontinued pressureoncommodityandoilprices.
INUNCERTAINTYTHERE COULDBEOPPORTUNITY
WedonotexpectM&Amarketstodryupinthecomingmonths,however.Mostinvestorsappeartobetaking abalancedviewandarebidingtheirtimeuntilclarityreturns.Somefunds(particularlyU.S.dollarbasedones)andstrategicbuyersarelikelytoseethisasatimeto makeopportunisticbidsforcarefullyselectedtargets.
FUNDAMENTALSREMAIN
Manyofthefundamentalsthatdrovetransactionsto recordlevelsin2015remaininplace.Companiesandfundsstillhaveplentyofcashavailableandreadyaccesstoaffordablefinanceinalowinterest-rateenvironment.Dealpipelinescontinuetobestrong,althoughitremains tobeseenhowmanyplannedtransactionswillresurfaceoncetheshapeofapost-Brexitworldismoreclear.
BIGSTRATEGICDEALS REMAINAFEATURE
Despitetheuncertainty,wesawanumberofstrategictransactionsgoingaheadinQ2,astheBayer/Monsantooffer,theproposedMicrosoft/LinkedInmergerand theAbbott/StJudecombinationdemonstrate. However,thereisasensethatmanyofthereally bigtransformationaldealshavebeendone. Instead,insomeregions–notablytheU.S.–weare seeingamoreevenspreadofactivityacrossawider rangeofsectors.
CHINAOUTBOUNDINVESTMENT CONTINUESAPACE
ThesurgeinoutboundinvestmentbyChina’s state-ownedandprivatecompaniescontinuestoaccelerateatarecord-breakingpace.Thisisatrend wethinkwillpersistastheirsearchcontinuesfornewgrowthmarketsandfortechnologiesandbrandsthat canberepatriatedtotheirdomesticmarkettoimprovetheircompetitiveness.
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2016
Region %ofdeals byregion
Western Europe 27%
U.S. 22%
AsiaPacific(excl.China) 20%
GreaterChina 15%
CEEandCIS 8%
Latin America 3%
MENA 2%
Sub-SaharanAfrica 1%
Other 3%
Over 25%
Less than 10%
Between 10% and 25%
3%
8%
2%
1%
27%
22%
20%
15%
214%INCREASE
151bnFinancialservices
167bnRealEstate
316bnTMT
146bnLifesciences
538bnEnergyandinfrastructure
149bnConsumer
H1 20161.5tn 1.9tn
H1 20151.4tnH1 2014
H1 201556bn
H1 2016120bn
vs
Global M&A in numbers H1 2016
Note:Thesefiguresrepresentthetotalnumberofdealsannouncedbetween1January2016and21June2016.
Deal volumes by region
Top 6 sectors by value (USD)
China Outbound M&A (USD)
Global deal values (USD)
Dataprovidedby
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In focus: China outbound – the pace acceleratesWith just six months gone, 2016 is already set to break all records for outbound investment by state-owned and private Chinese businesses and it looks like an irreversible trend. But what are the reasons for this overseas expansion and what hurdles might lie in the way of further investment overseas?
China has progressively increased its share of the global transactions market in recent years and has made its presence felt not only through rapidly accelerating
domestic dealmaking, but also, increasingly, through a surge of outbound investment.
Thestatisticsmakeforveryinterestingreading. Tenyearsago,Chinaaccountedforjust1.7% ofworldwideM&A,afigurethat,fiveyearslater, hadgrownto6.3%.Intheyeartodate,thatsharehasgrowntoastaggering26%,morethaneightpointshigherthanthesameperiodin2015.
Notsurprisingly,astheChineseeconomyhasgrowninsize,transactionshavegrowncommensurately. Agooddealofthatactivitycontinuestobefocusedondomestictransactions,ascompaniesacrosssectorsconsolidatetoshoreuptheircompetitivepositioninamarketnowintransitionandexperiencingaperiodoffalteringgrowth.Inits latestfive-yearplan,theChinesegovernment isforecastingmuchlower,butstillhealthy, GDPgrowthof6.5%upto2020.
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2016
YTD
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
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NO. OF DEALS OVER USD1.5BN INVOLVING A CHINESE PARTY
Note:Thesefiguresrepresentthetotalnumberofdealsannouncedbetween1January2016and21June2016.
Dataprovidedby
M&A Insights | H1 20166
© Allen & Overy LLP 2016
Butthemostremarkabletrendistheexplosion ofoutboundinvestmentfromChinesestate–andprivately-ownedbusinesses.
Intheyeartodate,thevalueofoutbounddeals hasalreadyreachedanimpressiveUSD120bn,comparedwithUSD56bnforthesameperiodlastyear.Thatmeansthat2016transactionvalueshavealreadyoutstrippedthetotalfor2015–thepreviousrecordyear–whichreachedUSD112bn.
ChemChina’sacquisitionofSyngenta,thefarmingandseedstechnologygroup,forUSD46.5bnisChina’slargestoutboundacquisitiontodateandaccountsforasignificantportionofthisnumber.However,italsorepresentswhatmaybeviewedasawatershedmomentinChineseoutboundactivityandthe“newnormal”ofChineseinvolvementinglobalM&A.
Whilethetideofmegadealscontinuestorise, asthetableshows,themostnotabledevelopmenthasbeenthedepthanddiversityofstrategicdealsacrossarangeofsectorsandinvolvingamixture ofstate-ownedandanincreasinglylargenumber ofprivately-ownedChinesecompanies.
An evolving story
ThestoryofhowChinahassecuredthispowerfulpositioninglobalM&Amarketsisanintriguing one,reflectingthecountry’srapid,and,attimes,destabilizingtransitionfromaninvestment-led, export-driveneconomytoanincreasingly complexone.
TheelementsdrivingChineseinvestmentarecomplexandreflectahugeeconomywhich, whilebothmarket–andstate-driven,isundergoingsignificantchange.
Intheearlydays,outboundinvestmentwas focusedonenergyandresourceswithstate-owned
enterprises(SOEs)dominatingthesceneasChinascouredglobalmarketstosecuretherawmaterials itneededtofeeditsexportmachineandtoensureenergysecurityandastablesupplyofcommodities.ItwasthatsurgeindemandforresourcesthathelpedfuelAustralia’sminingindustryboomand sawChinastealamarchininvestingacrossmanydevelopingeconomies,notleastinAfrica.
Akeymomentcamewiththeglobalfinancial crisis.Withtherestoftheglobaleconomy frozen,Chinaanditsextensiveforeignexchangereservesbecamethebuyerofchoice.Athome,Chinapump-primeditseconomytokeepitfiringahead.Thatmassivestimulusprogramledto arapidincreaseininfrastructureinvestmentthatfuelledthegrowthofdomesticcapacityacrossawiderangeofsectors.
Itisthatpump-priming,andthecapacitythatitcreated,whichnowalsofuelsadrivefortheacquisitionofhighervalue-addedassetstosecurelong-termgrowth.Thishasseenashiftofemphasisfromsecuringrawmaterialstogainingaccessto newtechnologies,productsandbrandsthatcanbebroughtbacktoChinatobolsterthecompetitivenessofChinesecompaniesathomeandabroad.
Thisprocessofbuyingupthevaluechaincontinuesapace,directlyencouragedandincentivized atdifferentlevelsoftheChinesegovernment, withofficialsrecognizingthatitcanbehard toquicklygrowworld-beatingcapabilities organically–farbettertogooutandbuythosecapabilitiesthroughacquisitions,mergersand jointventures.DependingontheChineseactorsinvolved,cheapfinancinghascomeintheform ofstatepolicylendingtoanactiveChinese capitalmarket.
Thisdrivetosecurenewtechnologieshasbeenglobal,butEuropeisthemarketthathasprovedmostattractive.Forexample,Germany’sso-called“mittelstand”ofpowerfulfamily-ownedenterpriseshasbecomeaprimehuntinggroundforChinesemanufacturersseekingtoboosttheircapabilities.Indeed,ChineseinvestmentinEuropehassoaredsince2009,withthevalueoftransactionslastyearstandingatmorethanthreetimesthevalueof U.S. investments.
Andit’satrendthatisspreadingtomoreand moresectors,includinghospitality,medicaldevices,healthcare,automotive,foodandbeverages, andfinancialservices.
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Growing sophistication
Thepathhasnotbeenentirelyeasyandthe trackrecordforsuccessfulinvestmenthasbeencheckered.Thelearningcurvehasbeensteep asChinesecompaniescontinuetotransform theiroperationstobecomeinternationalyfocussed.ThishasincludeddevelopingdedicatedM&A dealteams,learningtoworkwithadvisers, anddevelopingpost-integrationstrategiesto ensuresynergiesarecaptured.
Carryingthatoffrequiresinvestorstobenimble, tomakequickdecisions,todeploycapitalatrapidspeedandtobepreparedtotakeonhigherlevelsofrisk.Hereprivately-ownedChinesecompaniesareoftenprovingmoresuccessfulthanthebigSOEswhoarenow,tosomeextent,beinghamstrungbylengthierapprovalprocessesandbyconcernsthattheywillgetembroiledintheChinesegovernment’sdeterminedanti-corruptiondrive.
Hurdles and barriers
Whilethecurrentburstofoutboundactivity lookslikeit’sheretostay,thereareanumber ofincreasinglytrickyhurdlesthatChinese investorsneedtonegotiate,bothinternationally anddomestically.
Regulationisplayinganincreasinglypivotalrole intransactions.Atatimeofgrowingtensionin U.S./Chinarelations,bothsidesaremakingovertmovestoprotecttheirnationalsecurityinterests.OverseastechcompanieslookingtopartnerwithChinesecompaniestomakeinvestmentsinChinaarefacingmuchstricterrequirements.
TheU.S.isusingreviewsbyitsCommitteeonForeignInvestmentintheU.S.(CFIUS)topoliceacquisitionsbyforeigninvestorsinassetswithabearingonnationalsecurityand,astimegoes on,theseprobesarebecomingbroaderintheirjurisdiction.WhereoncetheywouldhavefocusedondirectinvestmentsinU.S.companies,CFIUSisnowlookingathowatransactionmayimpactU.S.nationalsecuritymorebroadly.SoaChinesefirmbuyingaEuropeanbusinesswhichhascontractswiththeU.SgovernmentmightnowfinditselfthesubjectofaCFIUSreview.
Thereisalsoparticularsensitivityaroundkeytechnologies,likesemi-conductors.InJanuary thisyear,thecommitteeblockedtheproposedUSD2.8bnsaleoftheDutchgiantPhilips’Lumileds LEDlightingdivisiontoGoScaleCapital, reportedlybecausethedealwouldgivethe Chinesecompanyaccesstochiptechnology thathadmilitarysignificance.
ConsumerStaples–6%EnergyandPower–11%Financials–11%Healthcare–2%HighTech–23%Industrials–14%Materials–14%MediaandEnt.–3%RealEstate–6%Retail–9%
ConsumerStaples–7%EnergyandPower–39%Financials–9%Healthcare–1%HighTech–12%Industrials–9%Materials–13%MediaandEnt.–3%RealEstate–3%Retail–4%
Indeed as our charts below show, the pattern of sectors targeted for investment globally has also been in rapid transition. Energy and power deals remain important, but no longer dominate as they once did, looking back over the last five years versus the last two years. Of the 35 deals worth more than USD1.5bn announced between 2014 and 2016 year to date, there have been more deals in high tech (8), industrials (5) and materials (5) than in energy and power (4).
% OF MEGADEALS 2014-2016 YTD % OF MEGADEALS 2011-2016 YTD
Note:Thesefiguresrepresentthetotalnumberofdealsannouncedbetween1January2016and21June2016.
Dataprovidedby
M&A Insights | H1 20168
© Allen & Overy LLP 2016
Somedealshavefallenthroughonthestrength ofathreatofaCFIUSreviewalone.InFebruary,TsinghuaabandoneditsplannedUSD3.8bnacquisitionofa15%stakeintheWesternDigitaldatastoragegroupafteritwassuggestedthedealmightgiverisetoaCFIUSinquiryandeventhoughtherehadbeennosuggestionthatthedealwouldactuallybeblocked.
ThelatestpublisheddataonCFIUSinvestigationsshowsthattherewere52%moreCFIUSinvestigationsin2014thanintheprecedingyear.ThetopthreeinvestingcountriesputunderscrutinywereChina,theUKandCanada.
IncreasinglyweareseeingChineseinvestors takethisthreatintoaccountinstructuringdeals.Somearevoluntarilysubmittingdealsforinvestigation(asisthoughttobethecasewithChinaChem/Syngenta).Othersarestartingtousereverseterminationfeeclausesindealsthatwouldbetriggeredintheeventofthedealbeingblocked. Suchaclauseisthoughttohavebeenincludedinthisyear’sproposedUSD6bntakeoverofIngramMicrosbyChina’sHNAGroup,thelargestChinesetakeoverofaU.S.informationtechnologybusiness.
ThetopthreeinvestingcountriesputunderscrutinybyCFIUSinvestigationswereChina,theUKandCanada.
Continued growth despite domestic concerns
Chineseregulationisalsoplayingamoreimportantroleindeterminingthesuccessofthisdealactivity.
China’santitrustregimehasbeenconsiderablystrengthenedinrecentyearstothepointthatBeijingisnowthethirdcapitalofcompetitionregulationafterWashingtonandBrussels,itsreachstretchingwaybeyondnationalborders.Whilesanctioneddealsstillenjoygoodaccesstofinanceandforeigncurrency,therehavebeengrowingsignsofnervousnessonthepartoftheChinesegovernmentthisyearabouttheamountofcapitalpouringoutofChina.Thegovernment’songoinganti-corruptioncampaignisalsohavinganimpactonsomeoutbounddealmakingactivity,aswehavenoted.
Despiteallthatweseenosignofoutbound activityslowing.
Dealmakingintheremainderof2016mightnot quitematchtheextraordinaryactivityofthefirsthalf,butthere’slittlereasontobelievethefootwillcompletelycomeofftheacceleratorpedal.
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Regional insightsMost markets saw lower levels of growth during Q2, compared with record activity in 2015. But large strategic deals, across a number of regions and a bigger spread of sectors, were still a feature and Chinese outbound investment continues apace.
WESTERN EUROPE Brexit could significantly depress dealflow
TheshockwavesfromtheUK’sunexpectedvotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionarelikelytohaveasignificantimpactonM&Aactivityinthecomingmonthsandwewouldnotbesurprisedtoseetransactionvolumesfallsignificantlyduringtheremainderoftheyear.
M&Athrivesoncertaintyandit’sclearwiththelevelofeconomicuncertaintycreatedbythe“leave”votethemarketwilltakesometimetorecoveranythinglikeasenseofequilibrium.Therearetoomanyunknowns –asituationmadealltheworsebythevacuumthat hasbeencreatedinBritishpolitics.
Havingsaidthat,wedonotexpecttransactionsto dryupcompletely.Dollarandothernon-sterlingdenominatedfundsandU.S.investorscouldwellseethisasahighlyopportunetimetododeals.Butthey willbeselectingtheirtargetswithextremecare.
UKcompanies,orbusinessesheadquarteredintheUK,whosecostsarepaidforinsterlingbutwhoseearningsarepredominantlynon-sterlingwouldbeobvious targets.It’snotablethatsuchbusinesses–notleastpharmaceuticalcompanieswithbigdollarearnings–werenotasadverselyaffectedintheequitymarketimmediatelyfollowingthevote.
Soweexpecttoseeinvestorstakeamoresophisticatedviewofthecurrentsituationratherthansimplyconcludingthat:“Brexitisabadthing,perse.”Alotofinvestorswilltakethesummertore-evaluatethemarket–aperiodwhenthecapitalmarketsaretraditionallyquietanyway.
ItwouldnotbesurprisingtoseeplannedIPOsandsecondarydeals,ofwhichtherewereasurprisingnumberaheadofthereferendum,beingpushed backintoQ12017orfurtherstill;tolaunchdealsin Q42016wouldmeanincurringcostsnow,atatimewhenthere’snocertaintythemarketwillbeopenin thatplannedwindow.
WeexpecttherestofWesternEuropewillfeelasimilarbacklashfromthevote.OutsideinvestorsaretendingtoseeBrexitasaEuropeanissueratherthanonejustfortheUK,aviewsharedbytheequitymarkets,whichsaw bigsell-offsacrossEuropeintheimmediateaftermath.ThisreflectslingeringworriesaboutthecontinuedlowgrowthofmostEurozonecountriesandfears,now, thatthisperiodofrelativestagnationwillcontinue. Longerterm,thereareconcernsthatothercountriesmaynowfacepressuretoleavetheEUandaboutthebalanceofeconomicpowerwithintheblocswingingevenmoreheavilytowardsGermanyaftertheUKleaves.
Ontopofthat,otheroutsideuncertaintiesareimpingingtoo,notleastthecontinuedworryaboutslowerChinesegrowthandabouttheoutcomeoftheU.SpresidentialelectionsinNovember.
Givenallthat,it’sperhapssurprisingwedidn’tsee moretransactionspulledintheimmediatewakeofthevote.Thatwedidn’t,wethink,indicatesthatinvestorsareoptingforaperiodofreflectionratherthanhurrying toabandonpotentialdealsaltogether.Betterright nowtowaitandsee,ratherthantorushintothe marketoroutofit.
Activityacrosstheregionaheadofthereferendum givesanindicationoftheamountofpotentialactivity wemighthaveseenhadthevotegonetheotherway.Butitalsospeakstoapipelineofdeals,someofwhichmighteventuallyresurfacewhenthereisgreaterclarity.
TheGermanmarketremainedstrongerthanmost, notleastasitwasboostedbyBayer’sgiantUSD62bnofferforMonsanto.ChineseinterestininvestinginGermanycontinues,butsomeofitisprovingcontroversial.ChineseMidea’spublicoffertotakeoverrobotmakerKukaforEUR4.5bn,forinstance,hasraisedgovernmentconcernsaboutthefutureofasensitivetechnology.Therewerealsoasignificantnumberofmid-andsmall-capdealsinGermanyandconsiderablePEactivityinQ2,withastringofacquisitionsanddisposalsintheEUR1bntoEUR1.6bnrange.
BoththeDutchandUKmarketsshowedasignificantuptickinotherM&AplanningactivitytowardstheendofQ2.OnestandoutprivateequitydealinthequarterwasGlencore’ssaleofstakesinitsagriculturalunittotwoCanadianpensionfunds.TheCanadianPensionPlan
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InvestmentBoardisbuyinga40%stakeforUSD2.5bn,whileBritishColombiaInvestmentManagementhasagreedtobuyafurther10%stakeforUSD625m.
TherewerealsosevenIPOsintheNetherlandstowardstheendofthequarter,anunusualspikeinactivity. ThemostsignificantofthesewastheEUR750m flotationofPhilipsLighting,whichfollowedtheabandonmentoftalkswithavarietyofprospectivestrategicandPEtradebuyers.
AsteadystreamoftransactionsintheBelgianmarketincludedTotal’sacquisitionofLampiris,Belgium’sthirdlargesthouseholdsupplierofgasandrenewableenergy,andthemergerofAllfinandImmobeltoformBelgium’slargestpropertydevelopmentgroup,withcombinedassetsinexcessofEUR850m.
AlthoughdealvolumeinItalywasdownby23%onthesameperiodlastyear,financialservicesactivitywasbeingdrivenbytheneedforbankstosellassetsandnon-performingloanportfoliostoimprovetheirbalancesheets.Q2alsosawAtlante,thegovernment-sponsoredbankrescuefund,acquireBanchePopolarediVicenzaforEUR1.7bn.TMTwasbusiertoo,withanumberofdealsincludingCVC’sEUR1bnacquisitionofSisalGroup,thegamingandpaymentsoperator,fromApax,PermiraandClessidra.
ASIA PACIFIC (INCLUDING GREATER CHINA) Outbound push continues apace
TherapidaccelerationofoutboundM&Aactivityby bothstate-ownedandprivateChinesecompanies, atrendfirmlyestablishedinthefirstthreemonthsof theyear,continuedapaceinQ2,withChinadominatingglobalcross-borderactivityinthequarter.
That’satrendweexpecttoseecontinuingeveniftheoutboundstoryisbecomingalittlemorenuanced, notleastasinvestorsreacttoslowingdomesticgrowthandtheneed,inkeysectors,toconsolidateathometopreserve competitiveness.
Thetideofoutbounddealsisbeingdrivenbytheneed tomovecapitalabroadtoseekbetterreturnsthanthoseavailableinanowmoresluggishdomesticeconomy. Theefforttofindnewwaystocompeteathomebyaddingnewbrandsandbusinesslinesisanother prime motivation.
Inthemonthsaheadthepaceofconsolidationinkeyindustrieswillundoubtedlydictatejusthowmuchcross-borderactivityweseeintheremainderoftheyear,butallthesignsarethatitwillbeprettyconsiderable. It’salsonotablethatservicecompaniesinanumber
ofsectors,liketechnology,arefollowingtheirclients intooverseasmarketstobetterservicetheirneedsthere,withbothEuropeandtheU.S.keytargetmarkets.
Chinesecompaniesarealsobeingmoreaggressiveandmorecannyinoverseasauctions,oftenbiddinginathighmultiplestosecurevaluedassetsandthensyndicating thefinancingofthedealwithotherpartnerslateonin theprocess.
TheoutboundstoryisnotaChineseonealone,however.Thelast12monthshavealsoseenanaccelerationofoutboundinvestmentbyJapanesecompanies,withthevalueofoutbounddealsactuallyoutstrippingdomestictransactionsin2015.Facedwithweakdomesticdemand,Japan’scompaniesandtradinghousesarealsoseekingnewgrowthopportunitiesabroadbothwithintheregionandfurtherafield.
Overalllevelsofactivityacrosstheregionappeartobeholdinguprelativelywellalthoughtherehasbeensomesofteninginkeymarkets.HongKong,however,hasseenanunusualspikeinthenumberofpublicdealsincludingLetv’sHKD2.28bninvestmentinTCLMultimediaand theacquisitionbyJiangsuHongtuofa50.5%stakein IDTInternational.
Twosectorsareprovingparticularlybuoyant–insurance,whereanumberofdealsacrosstheregionareinthepipeline,andrealestate,withthelogisticsaparticularfocusforconsolidation,aswesawearlierintheyear withthestrategicmergerbetweenChina’se-Shang,backedbyPEfirmWarburgPincus,andSingapore’sRedwoodGrouptocreateapan-Asianwarehousegiant.
ActivityinSouth-EastAsiaremainsrelativelymutedalthough,again,insuranceandrealestateremainbusy,andthetrendforEuropeanbankstowithdrawfrom theregioncontinues.Buyersfortheseassetstend tobeChineseandJapaneseinstitutionsandweareseeingstronglevelsofactivityinfinancialservicesin keyeconomies,includingthePhilippinesandIndonesia, astheforeigninvestmentenvironmentbecomes morewelcoming.
Theretailsectorisalsoseeingsomemovement, oftendrivenbyforeigninvestors’needstostrengthen theirdomesticbalancesheets.Thatwascertainlythe casewiththedisposalbyFrance’sCasinoofsupermarketbusinessesinbothThailandandVietnaminthefirsthalf oftheyear,transactionswithacombinedvalueofmorethanEUR4bn.
Globalandlocalpoliticalissuescontinuetohaveanimpactonactivity,addingtoalreadywidespread concernsaboutChina’sslowdowningrowth.
InAustralia,withtheAustraliangovernmentin “caretakermode”intherun-uptofederalelectionsin earlyJuly,Q2wasarelativelyquietquarterforM&Adeals.
Howeverthereweresomenotableexceptions,includingthelaunchofthetradesaleprocessforKKR’sstakeinradiationoncologyproviderGenesisCare,whichis
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reportedtobeattractingwidespreadinterest.Wealso sawAllnexjoinforceswithAdventinaUSD1.05bnbidforNuplex,theresinsandcoatingsgroup,andCaissededépôtetplacementduQuébec’sacquisitionofa44%stakeinlocalinsurancedistributorGreenstone.
TroubledsteelmakerArriumwasplacedintovoluntaryadministrationinApril.Arriumisoneofthemorehighprofilevictimsofthecommoditiesdownturnandareminderthatthispartofthecyclebringscasualties aswellasopportunities.
Meanwhile,localbankscontinuetotightenlending criteriaintheresidentialmortgagespaceandtoseek tostrengthenbalancesheets.InJune,WestpacsolddownitsmajorityinterestinBTInvestmentManagement,reportedlyadding10to15basispointstoitscommonequitytieroneratioasaconsequence.
U.S. Return to first principles
TheU.S.transactionsmarketcontinuestoshowrealsignsofresilienceinthefaceofanumberofchallengesthatmight,inlessconfidenttimes,actasamajordeterrenttodealmaking.
Althoughthereappearstohavebeensomeslighttailingoffinactivity,it’sencouragingthatweareseeingagoodmixofsubstantialtransactionsspanningmultiplesectorsandthereturnofmoretraditionaldriversfordeals– theneedtobuildscale,reducecostsandboosttop linegrowth.Atatimeofgenerallyloweconomicgrowth,M&Astillrepresentsoneofthebestwaysforcompaniestogrowfasterthanthemarket.
ThereturntothesetraditionalM&Agoalsisincontrasttorecentquarterswhereanumberofmoreartificialdrivers
havebeeninplay,includingtaxinversiondeals andthedealsdrivenbyactivistshareholders.
Thetaxinversiontrendseemsnowlargelytobe overafternewTreasuryruleswereannounced. Pfizer’sabandonmentofitsUSD160bnacquisition ofAllerganwasonecasualtyofthis.
Dealsdrivenbyshareholderactivism–ofthesort wewitnessedwiththetieupbetweenValeantandPershingSquareinconnectionwiththeirbidforAllergan–alsoseemstobeonthewaneforthetimebeing.
Onegoodmeasureofthestrengthofthemarketis thecontinuedflowofverysizeabledealsacross sectorsinthefaceofsomesignificantthreats– includinguncertaintysurroundingtheoutcome oftheU.S.presidentialelection,andthecontinuingconcernsabouttheglobalimpactofaslowdown inChina.
Inmorefragiletimes,thesemightbeanexcuseforinvestorstokeeptheirpowderdry.Addtothatincreasinglyaggressiveactionbyantitrustregulators ofthesortthatforcedtheofficeequipmentsuppliersStaplesandOfficeDepottoabandontheirplannedUSD6.3bnmerger,andthecontinuingweightofregulationbearingdownonthefinancialservicessector,anditwouldbeeasytoseewhyM&Amightsuffer.
Butitreallyhasn’t,asthestandoutdealsofthequarterillustrate.TheproposedUSD62bnacquisitionofMonsantobyBayer–whichwouldbeGermany’sbiggestevercross-bordertransaction–standsasasignificantstrategicdeal.Inaddition,themergerofthespunoffITservicesbusinessfromHPEnterpriseswithComputerSciencesCorpisasignificantdealcreatingagroupwithcombinedrevenuesofUSD26bn.
Thelifesciencessectorcontinuestoseearaftofdeals,includingthemassiveUSD25bnAbbott/StJudemedicaldevicestie-upandtheUSD9.3bnhostilebidforMedivationbyFrance’sSanofi.Takentogether, theseandotherdealsreflectamarketthatisnow activeacrosstheboardratherthansector-driven.
The outbound story is not a Chinese one alone, however. The last 12 months have also seen an acceleration of outbound investment by Japanese companies.”
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Atatimeofgenerallyloweconomicgrowth,M&Astillrepresentsoneofthebestwaysforcompaniestogrowfasterthanthemarket.AnalysisofthebiggestdealsseemstosuggestthatU.S.acquirersaremorefocusedondoingdomesticdealsatthemoment,perhapsreflectinguncertaintyabouteconomicgrowthinEuropeand,asQ2unfolded, theoverhangingissueoftheUK’sEUreferendum.
TherelativestrengthoftheU.S.economycontinues toattractagoodtideofinboundinvestmenttoo,althoughChineseinboundinvestmentintotheU.S.continuestofacehurdles,includingregulatoryscrutinyandmarketconcernsabouttheabilityofChineseacquirerstogetacrossthefinishingline.
Investorsseemtoberelaxedabouttheexpected riseininterestratesnowthattheFederalReserve hasmadeitclearthatitwillraiserateswithcaution.UnexpectedlypoorjobfiguresinJuneledmanytopredictthatrateswereunlikelytogoupuntilthe autumnratherthanattheheightofsummer, aspreviouslyexpected.
Givenallthat,wethinkthattheU.S.M&Amarketremainsinprettyrobusthealthandthatitwillcontinue toperformsteadilyastheyearprogresses.
CEE AND CIS Some signs of life
Transactionsacrosstheregioncontinuetorunatalowlevel,althoughwearebeginningtoseesignsoflifeinanumberofcountriesandsectorsandexpectactivitytoincreaseastheyearprogresses.
Withinflationnowunderbettercontrol,theroublesteadierandoilpricesrisingslightly,confidenceamonginvestorsinRussiaseemstobegrowing.Anumberofinvestmentbankshavenowraisedtheirforecastforeconomicgrowthnextyear,althoughthere’snosuggestionthatgrowthwillpickupquickly.
WithinboundinvestmentfromEuropeandtheU.S.stillchokedoffbysanctionsimposedfollowingtheUkrainecrisis,weareseeingasignificantincreaseininvestmentbyAsianandMiddleEasterninvestors,particularlyfocusedonenergy,mining,andoilandgas.
ThefirsthalfsawastringofinvestmentsbyIndianstate-ownedoilcompanies,thefruitoflastDecember’svisittoRussiabytheIndianPrimeMinisterNarendra
Modi.ONGChastakenafurther11%stakeinRosneft’sVankorneftfieldinWesternSiberiaforareportedUSD900m,addingtothe15%stakeitboughtlastyear. AfurtherthreeIndiancompanieshavealsotakena23.9%stakeinthefield,liftingIndia’stotalinterestinoneofthebiggestfieldsintheregiontojustunder50%.Inadditionthelatterthreecompanieshavealsotakena29.9% stakeintheTass-YuriakhNeftegazodobychaproject.
TalkshavealsobeenheldbetweentwoofChina’sstate-ownedoilandgasgiants,CNPCandCNOOC,aboutpossiblejointventureswithGazprom, whilsttheChinaInvestmentCorporationandthe RussianDirectInvestmentfundcontinuetoexplore possibleinvestments.
Indeed,withthevisitofChina’sPresidentXiJinpingtoWarsawinJuneaspartofthe“OneBelt,OneRoad”initiative,weexpectaspikeinChineseinterestintheCEEregionaswell,forexamplewithSerbiaacceptingHebeiIronandSteel’sofferforstatesteelmill ZelezaraSmederevo,andwithmorethan20 agreementswithSerbiaconcerningfinanceandinfrastructurealreadysigned.
PrivatisationisonceagainfullyontheagendainRussiaalthoughthereisabigdebateaboutwhatstateassets toselloff.InparticularthereisuncertaintyaboutsellingoffstakesinRosnefttoforeigninvestors,giventhefactthatBPalreadycontrolssome20%ofthisstrategicallyimportantcompany.
IntheCEE,thelargesttransactionwillbetheupcomingsaleofSABMiller’sCEEoperations,adirectresultofthetakeoverofSABMillerbyABInBevandthetwogroups’effortstowinantitrustapprovalforthedeal.Thevalue ofthistransactionmaybeintheregionofEUR5bn,whichwouldmakeitthelargestM&AdealintheCEE inrecentyears,withdisposalsinPoland,theCzechRepublic,Romania,HungaryandSlovakiaplanned.
Polandisstartingtoshowstrongsignsofrecoveryand2016mayeventuallyturnouttobeoneofitsbusieryears.Q2sawthesalebyfundsmanagedbyInnovaCapitalofMarmiteS.A.,themanufacturerofcastmarble,toafundmanagedbyCranemere(thefirstCranemereinvestmentinEurope)andthesuccessfulclosingbyItaly’sBancaFarmafactoringofitstenderofferforthesharesofMagellanS.A.,theleadingprovideroffinancialsolutionstothehealthcaresector.Inthebankingsector,AliorBankanditsstrategicpartnerPZUagreedtobuyBankBPHfromGE.
Thesecondhalfof2016shouldseesomelargetransactions.Afteragreeingthetermsofitsexitfrom thePolishmarketwiththeregulator,RaiffeisenBankInternationalhasputitsPolishsubsidiaryRaiffeisen BankPolskabackonthemarket.FundsmanagedbyMidEuropahaveappointedafinancialadvisertorunanauctionforthesaleofŻabka,thechainofconveniencestores,inwhatthemarketexpectstobeaEUR1bndeal.Meanwhile,theFrenchenergygiants,EDFandEngie,continuetopursueasaleoftheirPolishoperations.
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IntheCzechRepublic,thelargestQ2transactionwastheacquisitionofaminorityparticipationinLOTTOITALIA,winnerofthenewItalianLottoconcession, byCzechinvestorsKKCGthroughSAZKAGROUP andEmmaCapital.Otherwise,thesecondquarterof2016hasbeendominatedbymid-sizedealsinthee-commerce,publishing,healthcareandmanufacturingsectors,althoughthesecondhalfshouldseesomebiggertransactions,alongsideSABMiller’ssaleof PilsnerUrquell(PlzenskyPrazdroj),intheenergyandmanufacturingsectors.
Thelong-awaitedinvestmentbytheHungarianGovernmentandEBRDintoErsteBankHungary wasfinallysignedon20June.Thisisintendedto provideaplatformforErstetoboostlendingtosupporttheeconomy,andtoserveasa‘resetbutton’fortheHungariangovernment’sapproachtothebankingsector.OthersignificantHungariandealsincludedthesaleofMKBBanktoasyndicatecomprisedofBlueRobinInvestments,METISPrivateCapitalFundandPannóniaPensionFund,andthesaleofDiatronbyRiversidetoStratecBiomedicalofGermany.
Romaniasawdealsinvarioussectorsincludinghealthcare,insurance,websitesandmineralwater, withEnterpriseInvestors’acquisitionofNorielGroup(toysandgames)toppingoffareasonablybusyquarter.TherehasbeensomeincreasedactivityinBulgariaand asteadytrickleofsmallerdealsannouncedacrossSlovenia,SerbiaandCroatia.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Confidence remains despite lower oil price
Overalldealactivityintheregionremainsslow, withvaluesandvolumedownasloweroilprices andongoingpoliticaluncertaintyinpartsofthe regioncontinuetohaveanimpact.
Currencyvolatilityandthestrongdollarhavealsoaffecteddealmakers’confidencewheninvestinginassetsoverseas,andlocalcompaniesareconcentratingonregionaldealsratherthanlookingfurtherafield.
Moredistressedsalesaretakingplaceandsmallercompaniesarereviewingtheirpositionwithaview torestructuringandconsolidating,leadingsomecompaniestoselloffnon-coreassets.Therealsoappearstobemoreofagapbetweentheexpectationsofbuyersandsellers,withpotentialbuyerskeentoensurethatthesentimentofthemarketisproperly pricedintoanyacquisition.
IntheGulfparticularly,businessconditionsare beingaffectedbyreducedgovernmentspending, asgovernmentstrytoadjusttothedropinoilincome.Despitetherecentslightrallyinoilprices,thereisno
evidencetosuggestareturntohighpricesisonthehorizon,meaninggovernmentswillhavetocontinue theirreformsaimedatreducingtheirdependenceonoilexports.Evenagainstthisbackgroundhowever,theGulfregionsawmoreM&AactivitythantherestofMENA,particularlytheUAE,SaudiArabiaandKuwait. Iranalsosawincreasedactivity,bothintermsof valueandvolume.
Despiteatestingenvironment,MENAmarketplayersremainconfident.Recentsurveyssuggestthatconfidenceremainsrelativelystrong,withbusinessesbelievingthatlocaleconomiesareeitherstableorimproving.Thereisstillanappetitetododeals, andbehindthescenesactivitysuggeststheremay beanupturninthelatterpartof2016.
Notwithstandingthemoremeasuredapproach, theregionhasseensomebigdealsinthefirsthalfof theyear.Oneofthelargestwastheannouncement inJuneoftheagreementbyAdeptioInvestments, aUAEinvestmentcompanyultimatelycontrolledbyMohammedAlabbar,toacquire,forapproximatelyUSD2.4bn,a69%stakeintheKuwaitFoodCo(Americana),apubliccompanylistedontheKuwaitStockExchange,fromAlKhairNationalforStocks andRealEstate.AmericanaisthelargestoperatorofrestaurantchainsintheMENAregion,andaleadingfranchiseoperator,whosefranchisenetworkincludesCostaCoffee,KrispyKremeandHardee’s.
Followingcompletionofthesale,whichissubjecttocertainconditions,AdeptiowillberequiredtolaunchamandatorytakeoverofferfortheremainderofthesharesinAmericana.ThiswillbethefirstevermandatorytakeoveroffertobeundertakeninKuwaitand,interms ofprofile,complexityandnoveltyisoneofthemostsignificantM&Adealsevertotakeplaceintheregion.
FurtherinterestinthefoodandbeveragesectorintheGCCwasevidencedbytheacquisitionbyFajrCapital, aDubai-basedPEhouse,ofamajoritystakeinCraviaGroup.CraviaoperatesF&BfranchisessuchasZaatar wZeit,CinnabonandSeattle’sBestCoffeeandthedealshouldhelpittobuilditspresenceinlocalmarketsandaccelerategrowthplans.
InApril,DubaiParksandResortsPJSClauncheditsAED1.68bnrightsissue.Investorsupportforthecapitalraisingwasstrong–therightsissuewasoversubscribedwhenitclosedinMay,withatotalsubscriptionofAED2.1bn.Thefundingwillbeusedlargelytofinance anextensionofthecurrentDubaiParksandResortsoffering,whichlookssettobecometheregion’slargestintegratedthemeparkdestination,comprisingseveralseparatethemeparks:motiongate™Dubai, BollywoodParks™Dubai,LEGOLAND®Dubai andLEGOLAND®WaterPark.
FrenchcarmanufacturerRenault,togetherwith itscomponentsuppliers,hasagreedaEUR900minvestmentwiththeMoroccanstatetobuildanindustryecosysteminthecountry.Theprojectisexpectedto
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transformMorocco’sautomotiveindustryandaimstotriplejobopportunitiesthroughthecreationof50,000newpermanentpositions.Thedealwillincrease Renault’sproductioncapacitylocallyandreduce itsrelianceonimportsbyenablingittosourceanincreasingproportionofitscarcomponentsinMorocco.Moroccohasattractednumerousautoandaerospaceinvestorsinrecentyears,includingDelphi,BombardierandEatonCorp.Lastyear,thePSAPeugeotCitroënGroupalsosignedanagreementtobuildamanufacturingplantinthecountry.
InanotherMoroccandeal,MarchsawtheannouncementbyLafargeCiments,acompanylistedontheCasablancaStockExchange,ofitsmergerwithcementmanufacturerHolcimMaroc,tocreateLafargeHolcimMaroc.
Themerger,whichissubjecttothesatisfactionofcertainconditionsandregulatoryandshareholderapproval, isexpectedtocloseinJuly2016.Oncompletion,LafargeHolcimanditsstrategicpartner,SNI,theMoroccan-basedinvestmentcompany,willowna 64.7%stakeinLafargeHolcimMaroc,whichisexpectedtobecometheleadingcompanyintheMoroccanbuildingmaterialssector.Buildingontheirlong-termpartnershipinMoroccoandtheircomplementarybusinesseselsewhereinAfrica,LafargeHolcimandSNIhavealsoagreedtocreateacommonplatformfortheiractivitiesinFrench-speakingsub-SaharanAfrica.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Pipeline shows signs of promise
Transactionvolumescontinuedtodeclineacrosstheregioninthefirstsixmonthsoftheyearwithdealvaluesalsosignificantlydownonthealreadyrelativelylowlevelsseeninthesameperiodlastyear.But,despitethat, wearestillseeinggoodlevelsofactivitybehindthescenes,withabusiersecondhalfexpected.
AnumberofquitesizeabletransactionsareinthepipelineinSouthAfrica,notleastasBarclayscontinuestoplotaretreatfromitsAfricaninterestsfollowingastrategicreviewofthebank’spriorities.Q2saw10%ofBarclays’interestssoldonthemarkettoinvestors,butspeculationremainsrifethatadirectbuyerorbuyerswillbesoughtfortheremainderofthebusiness.
AmongstthoserumouredtobeinterestedortohavehelddiscussionswithBarclaysareSouthAfrica’s PublicInvestmentCorporation,variouspensionfunds,theDubai-basedPEhouse,Abraaj,andAtlasMara, thespecialistAfricanfinancialservicesinvestmentvehiclesetupbyformerBarclayschiefexecutive,BobDiamond.However,somedoubtshavebeenraisedoverwhethertheSouthAfricangovernmentwouldwelcomea majornationalbankingoperationbeingcontrolled byaforeignentity.
ThetrendforSouth Africaninvestorstoseekopportunitiesoverseas, andparticularlyin Europe,continues.Intheenergysector,Chevronhasalsoannounceditsdecisiontosell75%ofitsbusinessinSouthAfricaaswellasinterestsinBotswana.TheU.S.oilgianthasmadeitclearthatthisispartofaglobalbusinessreorganisationratherthanaparticularreflectionofitsattitudetowardstheregion.Disposalselsewhere,includingtheGulfofMexicoandMyanmar,arealsoplanned.
Sectorswhereweexpecttoseeincreasedlevelsofactivityastheyeargoesonincludemanufacturing,miningandtelecoms.Butthehighestlevelofactivitycouldbefocusedonrenewableenergywhere,fiveyearsintothegovernment’sdevelopmentprogrammeinthisareaandtwofundingroundslater,weexpectsomeoftheinitialbackerstoselltheirstakestonewinvestors.
Q2didseesomeimportantsmallerandmedium-sizeddealsintheregion,includingthemovebyCDCtobuya42%stakeinARMCement.ARMhasoperationsinKenya,Rwanda,TanzaniaandSouthAfrica,andisestablishingitselfassomethingofaneastAfricanrivaltoNigeria’sdominantcementandindustrialconglomerateDangotewhichcontinuestoexpandaggressivelyacrosstheregion.ThetransactionwasworthUSD139m.
Thetechnologyandtelecomssectorssawsomeactivitytoo.TheInternationalFinanceCorporation,partoftheWorldBank,investedUSD108mtoacquirean18%stakeintheSouthAfricanfintechbusiness,Net1, whichistryingtobringaffordablebankingand cardservicestoarangeofdevelopingcountries.Meanwhile,ZainconsolidateditspositionintheSudanesemobilemarketbybuyinga92%stakeinCanarTelecomsfromEtisalatforUSD95.2m.
ThetrendforSouthAfricaninvestorstoseekopportunitiesoverseas,andparticularlyinEurope,continuesafteraraftofdealsin2015andearlierthisyear.Realestateandretailremainthemosttargetedareasforinvestment.SparSouthAfricabecamethelatestretailertotrytocounteractweakdomesticdemandbyinvestingabroad,payingUSD45mfor a60%stakeinSparSwitzerland.
Attheotherendofthecontinent,Moroccocontinues tobeahubforinvestmentinotherpartsoftheregion,especiallywestAfrica.FinancialservicesremainsanimportantareaofactivityhereandweexpecttoseeanumberofdealsledbyMoroccaninstitutionscometofruitioninNigeriaandeastAfricainthemonthsahead.
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AstandoutdealinQ2sawAPMTerminalsinvestEUR758mtowina30-yearconcessiontodesign, buildandoperateanewcontainerterminalwithintheTangierMedseaportcomplexinMorocco.Theterminalissettoopenin2019andwillbethelargestofitskindontheAfricancontinent.
INDIA Reforms and hard sell begin to work
India’ssignificantpickupininboundinvestmentinthe firsthalfoftheyear,despiteaslightdeclineindealvolumes,isevidencethatthegovernment’seconomicreformprogrammeandPrimeMinisterNarendraModi’salmostnon-stoptrademissionsaroundtheworldarebeginningtopayoff.
Foreignbusinessesandfinancialinstitutionsfeatureprominentlyonthelistofleadinginvestorsinrecentmonths,aperiodthathasseendealvaluesclimbsignificantly,despiteaslightdropinoveralldealvolumes.Althoughvaluesarenotatalevelseenintheinvestmentboomofafewyearsago,thisisagrowingtrendandweexpecttoseeastreamofincreasinglyvaluabledealsin thesecondhalfof2016.
Commentatorsremaindividedbetween“glass-half-full”and“glass-half-empty”camps,withcriticsstillarguingthatMrModihasoverpromisedandunder-deliveredontheeconomicreformprogrammehestartedonenteringgovernmenttwoyearsago.
Moresupportiveonlookerscontinuetogivehimthebenefitofthedoubt,andarguethatcomplexchangetakestime.
HiseffortstochipawayatthereformsandtopromoteIndiaasaleadinginvestmentdestinationdoappeartobehavinganeffect.Investorsaredefinitelyencouragedbythe
economicfundamentals,whichmakeIndiaagoodplacetododealsatthemoment,andthefactthatthecountryisenjoyingaperiodofstablemajoritygovernment.
Insomesectors,reformsthathavebeenpassedarehavingadirectimpact.Insuranceisacaseinpoint, withinboundinvestorstakingadvantageofarelaxationofforeignownershiprules.BUPA,forexample,hasraiseditsstakeinitsIndianventure,MaxBUPA,from26%to49%,thenewupperlimit,andweexpectotherstofollowsuit.
TherehavebeensimilarrelaxationsinnumerousothersectorsandthegovernmentannouncedinlateJunethatitwastoeaseFDIcontrolsstillfurtherinsomekeyareas,includingdefence,broadcastandcablesystems,pharmaceuticalsandairports.
Wearecurrentlyseeingtransactionsofvaryingsizesacrossagoodspreadofsectorsincludingconsumer,financialservices,healthcare,technology,manufacturingandenergy.
Commentatorsremaindividedbetween “glass-half-full”and “glass-half-empty”camps.Q2sawU.S.PEfundBlackstonemakeitsbiggestinvestmentinIndiatodate,spendingUSD1.1bntoacquirea60.5%stakeinITservicescompanyMphasis.PowerandEnergyInternational,ownedbyMalaysia’sTenagaNasionalBerhadpowergroup,acquired a30%stakeinGMREnergyforUSD300m, whileCanadian-ownedinvestmentgroupFairfaxIndiaHoldingsboughta30%stakeinTheSanmarGroup, thelatestinastringofinvestments.WealsosawotherdealsinvolvinginvestorsfromSweden,theU.S. andHongKong.
The government’s economic reform programme and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s almost non-stop trade missions around the world are beginning to pay off.”
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Inthemonthsaheadweexpecthealthcare,defenceequipment,andenergy,particularlyrenewables,tobebusy.JunesawtheannouncementofadealbetweenWestinghouseoftheU.S.andtheNationalNuclearCorporationofIndiatobuildsixnewnuclearreactors,whilereportssuggestadealwillsoonbeagreedfor Indiatobuy36RafalefighterjetsfromFrance. BothdealsfollowModitrademissionsandshould, overtime,stimulatefurthersupplychainactivityin bothenergyanddefenceequipment.
AnotherpotentialdriverforbothdomesticandinbounddealsinthemonthsaheadisthegrowingpressureonIndia’sindustrialconglomeratestodivestofnon-core anddistressedassets.TheBankofIndiaisanxiousfordomesticbankstostrengthentheircapitalbasesbygettingridofnon-performingloansandotherexposures,andthispressureis,inturn,beingtransferredtothecorporate sector.
Outboundinvestmentremainsatalowebb,asithas beenforseveralyearsnow.Therupeetradingatahugediscounttootherleadingcurrenciesmakesoverseasdealsveryexpensive.Manyinvestorswhodidventureabroadattimeswhenthecurrencywasstrongerhavelostmoneyandareretrenchinginkeymarkets, aswehaveseenwithTata’smovetodisposeofsteelassetsintheUK.
Theexceptionstotherulearethecash-richstate-ownedenergycompanieswhocontinuetoinvestabroad,aswehaveseenwithrecentsignificantdealsinRussiabyONGCandothergovernment-ownedoilandgasgroups.
LATIN AMERICA Political and economic problems dominate
TransactionsacrossLatinAmericaremainsubduedastheregionwrestleswiththeeffectsofdeeprecession,thecontinuedimpactoflowcommodityandoilprices,anddeeppoliticaluncertainty,nowheremoresothaninBrazilwherefalloutfromtheOperationCarWashbriberyprobecontinuesunabated.
Againstthatbleakbackdrop,it’snotsurprisingtoseethatthevolumeofdealsinthefirsthalfoftheyearhascontinuedtofall,althoughvaluesremainedatroughlythesamelevelasthesameperiodlastyearthankstooneortwosizeabletransactions.
WithBrazil’sPresidentDilmaRousseffoustedfrompowerandfacingimpeachmentproceedingssettobeheardinAugust,thecountryremainsmiredinscandalandhighlyvolatile.OperationCarWash–thecorruptionprobeintobribespaidbyconstructionandother
companiestosecurecontractswithPetrobras–continuestoimplicatebusinesspeople,publicofficialsandpoliticiansandislikelytorumbleonlongaftertheimpeachmentproceedingshavebeencompleted.
OutsideofBrazil,electionsinPeruhavealsohadanimpactonactivity,withinvestorsholdingbackeventhoughtheconsensusisthateconomicpolicywill remainlargelyunchangedwiththeelectionof Mr.PedroPabloKuczynski.
Bycontrast,Argentinaisenjoyingaperiodofpoliticalstabilityandgreatexcitement,withthenewgovernmentsuccessfullywinninginterestfrominboundinvestorsinanumberofsectors,notleastindevelopingrenewableenergyresources,realestateandmining.Newrules andregulationshavebeenpublishedtosupport auctionsforrenewableenergydevelopmentsinAugust, withinvestorsfromtheU.S.,EuropeandAsiacircling.
OnArgentina,it’sfairtosaythatinvestorsremaincautiousandactualM&Aactivitywillpickupgradually.Wewouldalsoexpectthemultilateralsandexportcreditagenciestoplayaleadroleinanyinfrastructurefinancingthatdoesoccur,amovethatshouldencouragecommercialbankstoalsograduallybecomemore activeinthemarket.DevaluationoftheArgentine Pesomeansthatassetpricesarenowdownto morereasonablelevels,anotherfactorbehind growinginboundinvestorinterest.
Thereremainsasignificantmismatchbetweenbuyerandsellerpriceexpectations,creatingafurtherbarriertocompletionoftransactions.ThelocalcurrencydevaluationadvantageshouldalsoeventuallybeavailabletoBrazil,wheretherealhasalsodevaluedsharply.However,thereremainsasignificantmismatchbetweenbuyerandsellerpriceexpectations,creatingafurtherbarriertocompletionoftransactions.
Manyofthebigdealsinrecentmonthshavefocused ondisposalofassets,especiallyintheenergyandresourcessector.PetrobrashassuccessfullysolditsArgentinianintereststoPampaEnergiaanddistributionassetsinChiletoPEfirm,SouthernCross,indealstogetherworthnearlyUSD1.4bn.
Disposalactivityintheminingsectorisgatheringpace,butremainsfraught,althoughAngloAmericanhassolditsniobiumandphosphatesbusinessinBraziltoChinaMolybdenumforUSD1.5bn,adisposalreportedtohaveattractedinterestfromtheU.S.fertilisercompanyMosaic,amongothers.
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Overseasbankscontinuetoretreatfromtheregion. CitiisthelatesttoputitsretailbankingandcreditcardinterestsontheblockinBrazil,ArgentinaandColombiawithlocalbanksseenasthemostlikelybuyers.Santander,SofraandItauUnibanco,Brazil’slargest privatebank,arerumouredtobeinterested. BancoBradescowillnotbeacontenderhavingtakenoverHSBC’soperationsinBrazilforUSD5.2bnlastyear, agiantdealonlyjustfinallygivenantitrustclearance.
BrazilianconstructioncompaniesmiredinOperation CarWasharealsoseekingtoselloffbusinesses, oftentoraisemoneyforliquidityandalsotopaylargefines.Thequestioniswhowillbuytheseassets, whichmaywellberegardedastainted.Itmighttakebothanaggressiveinvestorandacceptanceofaverykeenprice.
Despitethisdomesticturmoil,someBraziliancompaniescontinuetobeadventurousoutboundinvestorsseekingnewgrowthmarketsorwaystosecuretheirfinancing.
BRF,oneofBrazil’sbiggestmeatproducers,continuestolookforinternationaltransactions,havingcompletedastringofdealsinEurope,AsiaandtheMiddleEastinthelasteightmonths.Meanwhiletheworld’sbiggestpoultryandbeefproducer,JBS,hasannouncedplanstospin offitsinternationalbusinesses,seekaNYSElisting andestablishanewheadquartersfortheminIreland,wheretaxeswillbelowerandfinancingcostsshould beconsiderablycheaper.
AsBrazilpreparestohosttheOlympics,themonthsaheadlooksettoremainverytesting.Hereandacrosstheregionweexpectrecoveryintransactionstobeamarathonratherthanasprint.
significant mismatch between buyer and seller price expectations creating a further barrier to completion of transactions.”
There remains a
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Sector insightsDeal activity, although slowing, was more widely spread across a variety of sectors in Q2 with even the most troubled, like mining, showing some signs of green shoots.
PRIVATE EQUITY Riding the risks
TheBrexitvotehasclearlysentPEfunds,likestrategicbuyers,intoaperiodofdeepreflectionandwearelikelytoseedealvolumesfallquitedramaticallyoverthecomingmonths.
EvenintheearlydaysaftertheshockUKreferendumresultitwasclearthatasubstantialnumberofdealswerebeingputonimmediatehold–althoughtheywerenotbeingabandoned.Fundswereclearlyanxioustotakestockandtotryandworkoutthefullimplicationsoftheleavevote.
Theimpactwill,ofcourse,befeltmostacutelybysterling-denominatedfunds.Withthepoundinsharpdecline,dealsforthemhavesuddenlybecomealotmore expensive.
Theotherwayround,however,therecouldbeopportunitiestododealsatveryfavourablepricesas thedustbeginstosettle.That’sparticularlytruefordollar-denominatedfundslookingtoinvestinBritishassetswhichaweekortwoafterthevoteweresuddenly10-20%cheaper.TruetooforEuro-denominatedtransactions–althoughpressureonthesinglecurrencymeanstheadvantageherewillnotbeasgreat.
Havingsaidthat,it’snotallaboutthepricetag.Anassetisonlygoodvalueifunderlyingearningsremainstrong.Soinvestorswillbeverykeentoseeif,andtowhatextent,theBritisheconomyfallsintorecessionandtogaugewhateffectthatwillhaveonthetarget’stop line.Alreadywehaveseendealsintherealestate sectorbeingre-assessedasprospectivetenantsforpropertydevelopmentsarepullingoutofnegotiationsin lightoftheuncertainty.
Lowersharepricescouldalsoopenopportunitiesfortakeprivatedeals.AlthoughthefallintheFTSE100 hasnotbeenasacuteasmighthavebeenexpected, thelikelihoodisthatsharepriceswillcontinuetodriftdownwardsoverthesummer.
Butoverallweexpectfundstotaketheirtime. Theyareundernoparticularpressuretodeploytheirstillconsiderabledrypowderandanydealswedoseeinthecomingweeksarelikelytobeextremelyopportunistic.
Aheadofthevote,2016hadbeenamixedyearfor PEinvestment,startingveryquietlyinQ1butgettingincreasinglybusyastheyearprogressed.That’sareflectionofthefactthataccesstocashandfinanceremainsgood,notleastashigh-yieldmarketswereonceagainopenforbusiness,afterdisruptionearlierthisyear.
Againstthatbackdrop,wesawasignificantbuildup inactivityasQ2progressed,particularlyintheUK, theNetherlandsandGermany,andthereisnowasignificantpipelineofdealswhich,aswe’venoted, havebeenpostponedratherthanditchedwhile investorstrytounderstandthenewlayoftheland.
IntheUKretailandbusinessserviceswereareas ofgrowinginterest,aswashealthcare,withbothpharmaceuticalsandclinicsandhospitals–anareaofhugeinterestforfundsaheadoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,butlesssoinrecentyears.
Oneofthemostsignificantdealsofthefirsthalfoftheyear–the50/50internationalicecreamandfrozen foodsjointventurebetweenNestleandtheUK’sR&R,ownedbyPAIPartners–formspartofagrowingtrendamongbigfoodproducerstofinetunetheirbrandstrategiesandmanufacturingoperations.GeneralMills intheU.S.isalsoactiveinthisfieldsincesettingupits301venturecapitalfundtohelpsmallproducersdevelop,manufactureanddistributenewbrands. WearealsoseeinggreaterPEinvolvementinhelpingthesesmallerproducerstogrowandraisefinance.
Mid-marketPEfundsintheNetherlandswerenoticeablymuchbusierastheyearprogressed.InGermanyautomotiveremainedanareaofgoodactivity,aswesawwiththeEUR820msaleofFTEAutomotivetoValeobyBainCapital.Thehospitalsectoralsoshowedsignsofheatingup,withfundslookingforwaystocircumventregulatoryhurdlestoinvestment,forinstancelookingtodo“grandfather”deals.
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ButacquisitionsanddisposalsinGermanycoveredagoodvarietyofsectorsandthereweresomesizeabletransactions,includingCVC’sEUR1.5bnacquisitionofthesportsgamingbusiness,Tipico,andthepurchase ofTui’sonlinereservationplatform,Holidaybeds, byCinvenandCanadaPensionPlanInvestment BoardforEUR1.2bn.KKRalsosoldWMFappliances toSEBofFranceforaroundEUR1.6bn.
PEactivityintheAsiaPacificregioncontinuestogrow.BlackstonemadeitsbiggesteverinvestmentinIndiainQ2,spendingUSD1.1bntoacquirea60.5%stakein theIndianITservicesgroup,Mphasis.InAustralia, KKRlaunchedthesaleprocessforGenesisCare, aradiationoncologyprovider.Whileactivityin SouthEastAsiaispickingup,interestcontinues torevolvemostlyaroundrelativelysmalldeals.
CONSUMER Uncertainties bite
Afterlastyear’sfreneticdealmakingbyconsumercompanies,manyfocusingonmegadeals,itwasalwayslikelythatactivitywoulddecreaseinthefirst halfof2016.Infactthevolumeofdealshasheldupreasonablywell,althoughthevalueshavefallenquitesteeplyintheopeningsixmonthsoftheyear.
Thatreflectsthefactthatmanyofthereallysignificanttransformationaldealswerecompletedin2015andthatthefocushasnowturnedtodoingsmallertransactions,manyofthem“tidyup”dealsstemmingfromlastyear’sspateofgiantmergersandtakeovers.
Buttheslowdownalsoindicatestheextenttowhichmacro-economicuncertainties–theUK’sreferendumonitsEUmembership,November’sU.S.presidentialelection,continuedworriesaboutgrowthinChina andthelikelihoodofhigherinterestrates–havebeendepressinginvestorsentimentinthesectoramidfearsthatthesefactorsmayhaveadisproportionateeffectonconsumerconfidence.
Nevertheless,wedidseethecontinuationofanumberoftrendsinQ2,someofwhichareadirectafter-effectofsomeofthemassivedealslaunchedlastyear.
ThedisposalofassetsbyABInBevandSABMiller towinantitrustsupportfortheirUSD108bnmerger isacaseinpointandillustratesthesortofmovesdealmakersarehavingtomaketogetthebigdealsdone.TheEUhassignalleditswillingnesstoclearthemerger,ontheconditionthatthepartnerssellmostofSABMiller’sEuropeanbrands.
HavingannouncedthesaleofthePeroni,GrolschandMeantimebrandstoAsahiofJapanearlierintheyear,SABMiller’sCentralandEasternEuropeanbeerbrandshavenowbeenputonthemarketwithaputativepricetagofsomeEUR5bn.ThiswillseebrandsinHungary,theCzechRepublic,Slovakia,RomaniaandPoland putupforsaleinanexerciselikelytoendupraisingsignificantlymorethantheWesternEuropeandisposals.
ConsumergroupscontinuetouseM&Aasanimportanttoolinmeetingchangingconsumertastesandneeds,alongsidemovestooverhaulhistoricproductlines.Johnson&Johnson’sUSD3.3bnacquisitionofthehairproductsgroupVogueInternationalisaclearexampleofthegroup’scontinuingdeterminationtorevitaliseitsconsumerdivision.SotooisitsdecisiontorelaunchitsfamousJohnsonBabyrange,tomeetdemandfrommillennialmumsformorewholesome,organicproducts.
Thefocusoncorebusinesslinesisalsoacontinuingtrendinanumberofsegments.Tui’sdecisiontosellHotelbeds,itsonlineroom-bookingplatform,toCinvenandtheCanadaPensionPlanInvestmentBoardforUSD1.3bnandnewsthatitmightalsosellitsSpecialistGroupactivities,comprisingsome50travelbrands, tofocusonmainstreamtourism,illustratesthistrend.
Elsewhere,theneedtoshoreupdomesticbalancesheetshasseensomeinvestorsretreatfromoverseasmarkets.FrenchretailerCasinohasthisyearsolditsinterestinThailand’sBigCsupermarketbusinessandsolditsVietnamoperationstoCentralofThailandintwodealswithacombinedvalueofmorethanEUR4bn.
Funds are under no particular pressure to deploy their still considerable dry powder and any deals we do see in the coming weeks are likely to be extremely opportunistic.”
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ForJapanesecompaniesandinvestmentgroups thetrendisgoingintheoppositedirection,however. Aspartofanacceleratingoutboundinvestmentstoryacrossmanysectors,Japaneseconsumergroupsareactivelyseekingopportunitiesfornewgrowthoverseasortoconsolidatetheirpositionsinnewmarkets.
Suntoryhas,forinstance,completedthelastpartof thejigsawinitstakeoveroftheRibenaandLucozadebrandsfromGSKbyacquiringrightstomakeand selltheproductsinNigeria.NoodlemakerNissinhassignedarelationshipagreementwithPremierFoods,theUKmakerofMrKiplingcakesandBistogravy– anagreementreachedshortlyafterPremierrejectedabidfromtheU.S.foodproducer,McCormick.Ayearaftertakinga20%stakeintheSingapore-basedgraintrader,Olam,MitsubishihasnowsignedajointventureagreementwithOlamtosupplysustainablefoodandagriculturalproductstoJapan.
WeexpectthattheUKvotetoleavetheEUwilllikelyimpactconsumerconfidenceanddealmakinginthissector. Somedealswhichmayhavebeenpursued hadtherebeenavotetoremainwilllikelybeputonholdwhilethetermsofBrexitareworkedout– whichcouldresultinaslowdowninM&Aactivity. However,forotherinvestors,thefluctuationsinthecurrencymarketsmaywellpresentopportunities,especiallywheretargetshaveasterlingcostsbase butsignificantnon-sterlingrevenues.
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Oil price uncertainty persists
Uncertaintyoverthefuturedirectionofoilpricescontinuestobethebiggestinfluenceontransactionsintheenergysector,bothintermsofshort-termM&Adealsandlonger-termfundamentalrestructuringintheindustry.
Althoughpriceshavefirmedalittle–andseem,fornow,tobeholdingatjustaboveUSD50abarrel–theyremainwellbelowthehighsofaroundUSD115abarrelwewereseeingonly24monthsagoandthereremainsastronglikelihoodoffurthervolatility.
Transactionactivityhas,notsurprisingly,stutteredasaresult,althoughdealvaluesacrosstheenergysectorhaveheldtheirgroundinthefirsthalf,thankstooneortwosubstantialdeals.
Increasinglyweareseeingoilmajorstrytoplotanewcoursetocontendwithwhatmightremainalowoilpriceenvironmentforsometimetocome.
That’snowheremoretruethaninSaudiArabia, whereaspartofanewlyunveilednationalplan toreducetheKingdom’sdependencyonoil, SaudiAramco,controllingtheworld’slargestproven oilreserves,isnowexploringwaystotransformitselfinto
agiantdiversifiedindustrialconglomerate,balancingitshugeoilinterestswithotherstreamsofbusiness.
AnIPOofthebusinessisinprospectintheyearstocome,but,moreimmediately,thecompanyhasbeenexploringanumberofdealsandventuresinandoutsidetheKingdomtobeginthisprocessofdiversification, allpartofitsadvancedtransformationprogramme. Thisincludeslookingatinvestinginbusinessesinboththeupstreamanddownstreamsectors,renewables, and,recently,maritime.
Elsewhere,2016hasseensomesubstantialdeals,despiteoilpricevolatility,andtheseshouldinturnstimulatedealactivity.
Shell’sgiantGBP35bntakeoverofBGgroupclosed inQ1anditisonlyamatteroftimebeforeitbeginsaprocessofpromiseddisposalstofine-tuneitsexpandedportfolioandtoreducedebt.There’saclearexpectationthattherewillbebothupstreamanddownstreamdisposals,althoughthetimingofanytransactionsremainsunclear,andtherehasevenbeenspeculationthatitwillmakeacompleteexitfromtheNorthSea.
WeexpecttoseeanincreaseinactivityintheU.S.oilservicesmarketfollowingtheDepartmentofJustice’sdecisiontoblocktheproposedUSD34bnmergerbetweenHalliburtonandBakerHughes,respectively thesecondandthirdlargestplayersinthesectorafterSchlumberger.WhileBakerHughesissettoreceiveaUSD3.5bnbreakupfee,partofwhichislikelytobereturnedtoshareholders,thegroupisnowexpectedtorestructureitsinterests,withanumberoftransactionslikelytoflowoutofthatprocess.
ActivityintheAsianenergysectorhasbeenshowingincreasedsignsoflifeinrecentmonths.OilandgasM&AactivityisstillbriskintheregionwithtransactionsinthePhilippines,Malaysia,Indonesia,VietnamandPapuaNewGuineawithmuchofitfocusingondownstreamassets.AsianclientsarealsolookingatAfrica,especiallySouthAfrica.
Meanwhile,RussiacontinuestoseeactivityinitsoilandgassectorasitseekstoattractinvestmentfromChina,IndiaandtheMiddleEast,inparttocounteracttheimpactofU.SandEUsanctionsimposedinthewakeoftheUkrainesituation.ONGCisoneoffourstate-ownedIndianoilandgasgroupsthathaveagreedtotakesignificantstakesintwosubstantialRosneftfieldsinWesternSiberia,whileincreasedChineseinvestmentisalsoonthecards.
Acrosstheglobethereisagrowingemphasisonproducingoilinplaceswhereitischeapertogetitoutoftheground,anobviousbi-productofmuchlowerprices.Insomeinstancesthatisencouragingcompaniestoexploredealsinplacesofhigherrisk.Despitecontinuinginstability,Iraqisacaseinpoint.IrantooisattractingconsiderableinterestfromEuropeancompaniessincethewarmingofdiplomaticrelations.
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Thefuturedirectionofoilpricesremainshardtopredict.Lowerpricesarepredominantlybeingdrivenbyoversupplyandwhentheexcesseasespricestend torise,ifonlyslightly.However,itisclearthatothersuppliers,notablysomeU.S.shaleproducers, haveturnedthetapsoffinresponsetolowerprices, anditwouldnotbesurprisingtoseethemrestartproductionifpricesremainatahigherlevel.Thatposestheobviousthreatofpricesdippingonceagain, makingtheoutlookfortransactionsuncertain.
Movingawayfromoilandgas,wecontinuetoseeawiderangeofactivityinthebroaderinfrastructureandenergytransmissionanddistributionsectors,withsignificanttransactionsexpectedtocloselaterin2016.
Forexample,majorprocessesunderwayincludeNationalGrid’sdisposalofitsgasdistributionnetworks. ItremainstobeseenwhethertheportsprivatisationprogrammewillcontinuetoattractbiddersinAustralia.
NorthAmericaisseeingsignificanttransaction activityfromfirstgenerationinfrastructurefundexits,distressedassetsalesandstrategicinvestorsdivestingnon-coreinfrastructureassets.Weexpectthistrendtocontinueatleastthroughtotheendof2016andfirstquarterof2017.
Weexpectthattherecentreferenduminfavourofthe UKleavingtheEuropeanUnionwillhaveashort-termimpactonUKtransactions,thisisdrivenbytheuncertaintythishascreatedinthefinancialmarkets. Inthemediumterm,ourviewisthatthefundamentals –includingthestabilityoftheUKregulatoryenvironment–whichcontinuestoattractinvestorstotheinfrastructuresector,willremainunaffected.
Moregenerally,weseeinfrastructurefundscontinuing tobroadentheirhorizonsandincreasinglytargeting “coreplus”assetsastheyarepricedoutoftraditionalinfrastructurebypensionfunds(whohavealowercost ofcapitalandlessaggressiveIRRexpectations).Asaresult,weanticipatetherebeingafurtherconvergencebetweenwhatisconsideredtobe“pure”privateequityandinfrastructure–aninterestingdynamicshowinghowrapidlythesectoranditsinvestorsareevolving.
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asia leading the way
AdistinctglobaldivideisemerginginthelevelsofM&Aactivityweareseeinginfinancialservices,withactivitybecomingincreasinglylivelyinAsiawhileinstitutionsinEuropeandtheU.S.appeartobeplayingawaitinggame.
OfthetoptendealsinQ2,sixwereintheAsiaPacificregion,withfourlargedomesticdealsinChinaandtwodomesticdealsinSouthKorea.Andthatdominanceisalsoreflectedfurtherdownthedealvaluechaininamorecross-bordermanner.
BycontrasttheU.S.inparticular–andNorthAmericaingeneral–remainedunusuallyquiet,perhapsreflectinginvestoruneasinessaheadofexpectedinterestraterisesandNovember’spresidentialelection.Europealsoremainsinsomethingofatrough,withothermacro-economicworriescompoundedbytheUKreferendumonEUmembership.Herethesectorislargelyagreedthat Brexitwillbeabadthingfortheindustry,introducinganothertierofregulationtoanalreadyburdensomemix fortheindustry,leavinguncertaintyaroundkeyregulatoryissues.It’shardtosayatthispointwhatmaychange, butquestionmarkssurroundthepotentiallossofpassportingrightsforUKfinancialinstitutions, thepossibilityoftherepatriationofcertainactivities, suchaseuroclearing,aswellaspotentialretaliatorylegislativemeasuresbyEUauthoritiestowardstheUK.TimewilltellwhattheimpactwillbeonM&Ainthesector,butit’sdifficulttoseeBrexitleadingtoanyup-tickinFIGM&AacrossEuropeasawhole.
Thisyearhas,though,definitelyseenAsian marketsbucktheglobal trendandwearecontinuingtoseereasonablyhealthyvolumesofdealshere.Overall,M&Aactivityinthesectorremainsrelativelymuted–certainlycomparedwiththesortofactivitywewereseeingaheadofthefinancialcrisis.Butit’sworthnotingthat,attheircurrentlevel,transactionvolumesstandonaparwiththelastthreeyearsafterrecoveringfromasignificantdipin2013.Thatmakesforarelativelysteadypictureratherthanadynamicone.
Thisyearhas,though,definitelyseenAsianmarketsbucktheglobaltrendandwearecontinuingtoseereasonablyhealthyvolumesofdealshere.WhilethebiggestAsiandealshavebeendomestic,weareseeingmuchmorecross-borderactivityinsmallerandmedium-sizedtransactions,withkeymarketsshowingmoresignsofvibrancy,notleastthePhilippines,VietnamandIndonesia.
ThePhilippinesisalreadyreapingthebenefitofmorerelaxedcontrolsonforeigndirectinvestmentinthebankingsector,andJapanese,TaiwaneseandChinesebanksaremovingtotakeadvantage.TheBankofTokyoMitsubishi,forexample,paidUSD773mfora20%stakeinSecurityBank,thebiggestFDIinthePhilippinesfinancialservicessectortodate.ThedealcomestwoyearsafterittookacontrollingstakeinThailand’sBankofAyudhaandisanotherillustrationofitsdeterminedexpansionacrosstheregion.
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InthePhilippinesandIndonesiaalike,growthinthemiddleclasses,theneedforconsolidationandanefforttoimprovegovernancestandardsarepressingconcernsandthisisopeningupopportunitiesforinboundinvestors.
Elsewhere,EuropeanandNorthAmericanbankscontinuetoretreatfromtheregion–withChinese,Japanese,SingaporeanandSouthKoreaninstitutionsthemostlikelypotentialbuyers.Barclayshas,forinstance,justagreedtosellitswealthmanagementbusinessinHongKongandSingapore,totheBankofSingapore(theprivatebankingarmofOCBC).
“Riskoff”remainstheprevailingmoodamongEuropeanbanksandU.SbanksoperatingintheEU.Thoughthe fulleffectsofaBrexitarealittlehardtopredict,someinstitutions–HSBC,CitiandJPMorganincluded– hadalreadyindicatedaheadofthevotethattheywouldmovepartsoftheiroperationsorshedUKjobsintheeventofanoutvote.Assetmanagementcontinuestoattractinternationalinvestorinterest,however.
Inthismorerisk-averseenvironment,weareseeingtheinsurersfollowtheleadofbanksandrestructuretheiroperations,forexampleAegoninrelationtoitssubsidiaryScottishEquitable.Insurancecompaniesnotablyhavetheoptionof‘shadowM&A’wherebytheystructuretheirM&Atransactionsasinsurance/re-insurancecontracts.Weareseeingincreasingamountsofthisinthesector.
UKbankshavelargelycompletedthebusinessofriddingthemselvesofbaddebtsandnon-performingloans, butelsewhereinEuropemuchworkremainstobe done,evenamongsomeofthebiggestinstitutions, likeDeutscheBankandCreditSuisse,whichhave bothannouncedrestructuringprogrammes.
InsouthernEurope,particularlyGreece,theissueismoreprofound,althoughanumberofplayersareemergingwho
arewillingtotakeonthesedebts.BrexithadasignificantnegativeimpactonsharepricesofItalianbanksinthedaysfollowingtheBrexitvote. Thepresshasreported thattheItaliangovernmentisseekingtoobtainpermissiontoinjectequityintotheItalianbankingsectorwithoutcomplyingwithBRRDorEUstateaidrulesinrespectofburdensharingalthoughapparentlythereisresistanceinBrusselstothisinitiative.
Italy’snewlycreatedEUR5bnAtlantebankrescuefundhasmeanwhilebeenrolledintoactionasabuyeroflastresortforbanksstrugglingtoraiseequityfinancingorsaddledwithbaddebts.Ithasrecentlygonetotheaid ofBancaPopolarediVicenzaandVenetoBanca, leavingfewerresourcestoaddressbaddebtsituations.
ElsewheretherehasbeenlittleactivityinItaly’sbankingsector,althoughwiththesharepricesoflistedbankscontinuingtofallthatsituationcouldchangeinthe monthsahead.However,thereformofthebanchepopolari(knownas“mutual”or“regional”banks) enactedin2015isdrivingsomedomesticconsolidation,withtheproposedmergerbetweenBancoPopolareandBancaPopolarediMilano.
Onesignificantgeneraltrendthathassurfacedthisyearisthereshapingoftheglobalinvestmentbankingindustry.AftersomereallydireresultsinQ1thisyear,Europeanplayersarerestructuringtheiroperationsandfocusing onspecialistinvestmentbankingactivities–aprocessthat,intheabsenceofbuyers,islikelytoinvolvenaturalshrinkage,ratherthanM&Adeals.
ThatwillleavethefieldclearforthebigU.S.banks. Theyhavegonemuchfurtherinsortingtheirhouses outandhavethescaleandresourcestodominatetheglobalscene.
A distinct global divide is emerging in the levels of M&A activity we are seeing in financial services.”
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Moregenerallythepriceofinnovatorandgeneric drugscontinuestobeacontentioustopic.IntheU.S.,companieslikeTuringandValeanthavebeenatthecentreofaverynegativepoliticalstormoverpricingtactics.Thishasflowedthroughintoplungingstockmarketpricesandissueswithdebtservice,whichmayspellthedeclineofthe“specialtypharma”M&Amodel.
Butthepricingissueisbroaderthanthisandisincreasinglybecomingamajorboardroomconcern, notleastinthedebateaboutdevelopingnew, much-neededantibioticswherecurrentpricing structuresareseenasdeterringrequiredresearch anddevelopment.Asfocusintensifiesonantibioticdevelopmentsandalternativepricingstructuresareconsidered,wearelikelytoseemoreM&Ainthis space over time.
Aswe’venotedbefore,theBiotechsectorremainsahotbedofdealactivityandnowheremoresothanin theareaofcancertreatments.Twoongoingdealsreflectthatcontinuedinterestinoncologydrugs–FrenchgroupSanofi’shostileUSD9.2bnbidforMedivation, nowfocusedonSanofi’sattemptstoousttheexistingMedivationboard,andAbbVie’sbidforStemcentrix,which,includingcashearn-outs,couldbeworth someUSD10.2bn.
Sanofi’smovefollowsitssuccessfulcollaborationwithRegeneronintheemergingfieldofimmuno-oncologylastyear,showingonceagainthevalueofcommercialpartnershipsaswellasM&Ainpipelinebuilding. OnequestionforSanofiwillbehowtostructurethetransactiontodealwithMedivation’slong-standingtie-upwithAstellasforthecommercialisationofEnzalutamide.
ForAbbVie,successinthislatestbidwouldfurtherstrengthenitsoncologypipelinefollowingrecent dealswithCytomXTherapeutics,theBelgian biotechfirm,argenx,andlastyear’sUSD21bn buyoutofPharmacyclics.
MINING Green shoots raise hopes
Theminingsectorremainsinatransactionsquagmire,withdealvaluescontinuingtodeclinequitesteeplyalthoughdealvolumeshaveheldupreasonablywellthisyear,albeitagainstanequallydifficultperiodin2015.
Butthereare,finally,someencouragingsignsandwearecautiouslyoptimisticthatthepicturecouldimproveinthemonthsahead.There’snoquestionofreturningtoabullmarketanytimesoon,butwedoexpecttransactionlevelstopickup.
LIFE SCIENCES As one door closes…
Thequarterthatsawthebiggestpharmaceuticalsdealofalltime–theUSD160bntakeoverofAllerganbyPfizer–abandonedinthefaceoftoughnewU.S.Treasurycontrolsontaxinversiondeals,ought,byrights,tobeafairlydismaloneforasectorthathasbeenanengineroomofglobalM&Aactivityinthelasttwoyears.
ButQ2actuallysawtransactionsinthelifesciencessectorsparkintolifeagaindespitethedoorbeingallbutclosedonthetypeoftax-drivendealsthathavebeensuchafeatureofthesectorinrecenttimes.
Anumberofhighvaluetransactions–notleastAbbott’sUSD25bnbidforStJudeMedical–sawdealvaluesgrowtotheirhighestlevelfortwoquarters,eventhoughdealvolumeswereconsiderablylower–proofthatbigticketdealsarestilltheorderoftheday.
Whilewestillbelievethat2016willbeaquieteryearfortransactionsoverall,there’sstillplentyoflifeinthesectoratthecurrenttime.Allthemoresoifyoustretchthedefinitionoflifesciencestoincludeagri-biotechandincludetheproposed,butsofarrejected,USD62bnbidforMonsantobyBayerintotheequation–whichwouldbethebiggestcross-borderGermanacquisitionever.
Thereasonsforthiscontinuedactivityarevaried. Lowerstockmarketvaluationsmayhaveencouragedcash-richbiddersbackintothemarket.Despitethethreatofhigherinterestrates,financingstillremainsrelativelycheap.Aboveall,theperpetualneedto stockpipelineswithnewtreatmentsandfast-trackexpensiveR&Dprogrammesremainsthebiggest driverofM&Aactivity.
Medicaltechnologycontinuestobevibrantasboth theAbbott/StJudedealandthemuchsmaller,butstillsubstantial,USD4.2bnagreedtakeoverofFEIbyThermoFisherScientificprove.ThissectorhasbeengettingsteadilybusierinthelasttwoyearsfollowingthemergerbetweenMedtronicandCovidienandthefirst sixmonthsof2016havealreadyseenastringofdealsincludingStryker’spurchaseofbothSageand Physio-Control.Abbott’sproposedUSD5.8bnbid forAlere,however,hasrunintocontroversyafterallegationsofbriberysurfacedatthetargetcompany.
Activityinthissegmentisoftenaboutbuyingmarketshareandextendinggeographicreach,aswellasbringinginnewproductsandtechnologies.Inafurthertwist,somedrugmakersaretryingtocombinewithmedtechbusinessestohelpthemmonitortheefficacy oftreatments.Theideaistousetheresultingdata toincreasetheirbargainingpowerwithpayers (healthauthorities,insurersetc),whoare increasinglylookingtopayfordrugsonthe basisoftheirprovenperformance.
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Theoverridingproblemforthesectorisacontinuingdisconnectbetweenbuyersandsellersonthevalue ofassets,atatimewhenmanyofthemajorshaveembarkedonmulti-billiondollardisposalprogrammestopaydowndebt.GlencoreandAngloAmericanhavemajorprogrammesinplaceandareunderthegreatestpressuretomakedisposals.
Thetroubleisthatthemajorityareunwillingtosellassetsatthesortofpricesthatwouldbringbuyersbackintothemarket,sosalesprocessesaremovingaheadwithmixedsuccess.Thatsaid,AngloAmericandidsellitsniobiumandphosphateminingoperationsinBraziltoChinaMolybdenuminaUSD1.5bndealthatattractedbiddinginterestfromotherparties.
Coalremainsanareainwhichmanyofthemajormininggroupsaretryingtomakedisposals.OnAustralia’seastcoast,forexample,RioTintohassuccessfullysoldoffinterests,whilePeabody,AngloAmericanandValearealllookingtomakeexits.DisposalorrestructuringofcoalassetsisathemeinAfrica.
It’safamiliarscenebut,inouropinion,therearesignsofsomegreenshoots.
Thosemininggroupswithstrongerbalancesheets–BHPBilliton,South32andRioTinto,forexample–seemtobebeginningtoexploreopportunitiesagain.Theyarenolongerfocusedsolelyoncostcuttingandreturningvaluetoshareholders,butareonceagainbeginningtoscoutfortransactionopportunities.Mostoftheprospectivedealsarefocusedonindividualassets,ratherthangrandermergersandacquisitions.
Theoverridingproblemforthesectorisacontinuingdisconnectbetween buyersandsellerson thevalueofassets.Chinesebuyersarealsomoreactivethantheyhavebeenforsometimeas,toalesserextent,areIndianinvestors.ThetwobiggestdealsofQ2involvedChinaMolybdenum,which,ontopoftheAngloAmericandeal,alsoacquiredFreeport-McMoran’sTFHoldingscoppermininginterestsintheDemocraticRepublicofCongo forUSD2.65bn.
TherewereanumberofdomesticChinesedealsinthereasonablybuoyantgoldminingsector,areflectionofawiderconsolidationtrendinthispartoftheindustryasgoldpricesfirmup,althoughtransactionsheretendtobefocusedonsmallandmedium-sizeddeals.
Finally,PEhousesandspecialistminingfunds arealsomakingtheirpresencefeltinprocesses,presumablydecidingthat,aspriceexpectations becomeincreasinglyaligned,theywillsoonhaveopportunitiestodeploysizeableaccumulatedfunds. Oneparticularareaofinterestiscopper–oftenseenasastrongindicatorofthedirectionofcommodityprices.
Aftertwoyearsofextremevolatility,it’shardtopredictwithanyrealcertaintywherethosepriceswillgointhemonthsahead.
Q2 saw transactions in the life sciences sector spark into life again despite the door being all but closed on the type of tax-driven deals that have been such a feature of the sector in recent times.”
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andentertainmentassets,includingmediarightscompaniesaswellasEuropeanfootballteams.
Q2sawMP&Silva,theItalian-basedsportsmediarightsgroup,formastrategicpartnershipwithEverbright,aChinesefinancialservicescompany, andBeijingBaofengTechnology,alistedinternetentertainmentandtechcompanysaidtocontrol China’slargestonlinevideo-playingplatform. TheChinesepartnersaretakinga65%stake, inadealreportedtobeworthsomeUSD1bn.
TheComputerSciencesCorp/HPEnterprisesmerger,creatinganITservicesgroupwithcombined revenuesofsomeUSD29bn,isinterestingfora numberofreasons–asidefromitssheerscale.
Cross-sectortechdealshavebecomeanincreasinglyinterestingfeatureofthemarket,particularlyinthetie-upbetweenhealthcareanddatacompanies, so-calledconnectedhealth.ThisisthelatestinastringofacquisitionsbyCSC,followingtheUSD6bnspin-offofCSRA,theUSD2.3bnmergerofCSRAandSRAInternationalanditsacquisitionofXchanging,andeffectivelyunravelsHewlettPackard’stroubledacquisitionofEDSin 2008.EDSbecamestrandedintheoldtechworld,overtakenbytheadventofnewtechadvances, notablycloudcomputing.Thedealisalsoacomplexso-called“ReverseMorrisTrust”transaction–ataxefficientspin-offandmergedeal,whichmeansHP canavoidtaxonthedeal.
Cross-sectortechdealshavebecomeanincreasinglyinterestingfeatureofthemarket,particularlyinthetie-upbetweenhealthcareanddatacompanies,so-calledconnectedhealth.TheUSD9bnQ2mergerbetweentheclinicaltrialsgroupQuintilesandthedataandanalyticsbusinessIMSHealthcontinuesthattrend.
Thecombinedgroupwillhaveaccesstoamassofpatient,prescriptionandotherhealthdatawhichitcanmakeavailabletodrugmakers,offeringthepotentialtoaddrealvaluetotheR&Dprocess.Itwillalsopositionthegroupwellatatimewhenthewayinwhichdrugdevelopersarepaidandreimbursedisintransition, withpublichealthbodiesandhealthinsurers lookingtopayfordrugsbasedontheirproven clinicalperformance.
Transactionsinthetelecomssectorcontinueto belargelytiedupwithregulatoryandcompetitionissues,nowheremoresothaninEurope’s consolidatingmobilephonesector.
Whileironorepriceshavestrengthenedinrecent months,andshownsignsofholdingthosegains, manycommentatorssuggestthatthisisadirectresult ofshort-termrestockingbyChinaandthatrecoverycouldbeshort-lived.Giventhevolatilityofrecentyears,that’sanunderstandablepredictiontomake.
Butwebelievetherearesomecautioussignsthatpricesmayfinallyhavebottomedoutandthatasmalldegreeofcertaintyisreturningtothemarket–thesortofcertaintythatcouldbegintostimulateagradualpickupintransactionactivity.
TELECOMS, MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY Tech and China still driving activity
Telecoms,mediaandtechnologydealshavesettledtoamuchlessfreneticpacethisyearcomparedwith2015,withdealvolumesandvaluesdowndespitethelateQ2announcementofthebiggesteversocialmediadealonrecordandacontinuedspikeinactivitybyChineseinvestors,bothathomeandabroad.
Microsoft’sannouncementthatitistopayUSD26.5bntotakecontroloftheprofessionalsocialnetworkLinkedInnotonlyexceedsallpreviousdealsinsocialmediabutisthethirdlargestacquisitioninthehistoryofthetechsector.
Yetthetransactionhasleftcommentatorssomewhatperplexedaboutwhatitwilldowiththesite,notleast givenMicrosoft’sratherchequeredM&Arecordinthisarea.ItboughtSkypeonlytoseeiteclipsedbyotherfreechatserviceslikeWhatsApp,andacquiredYammerbutfailed,itiswidelybelieved,toturnittoadvantage.NorhasthetakeoverofNokia’smobilephonesbusinessdeliveredtheanticipatedbenefits.
Thedealisclearlyallaboutdata,butwhatMicrosoftplanstodowiththedataofLinkedIn’shundredsofmillionsofusersisunclear.ThestrongesthintsarethatMicrosoft willminethedata(andthetalentsofLinkedIn’smany datascientists)tohelpitdevelopnewtargetedfeatures orservicesinitscurrentoffering.
FourofthebiggestdealsofthequarterweredomesticdealsinChina,furtherevidenceoftheconsolidationgoingon,inthissectorasinothers,asChina’sgrowthslows.OneinterestingfeaturehereishowsomeoftheTMTtrendswe’vebeenseeinginothermoredevelopedmarkets,liketheU.S.,arenowbeingreplicatedinChina.
That’scertainlythecasewiththetie-upbetweenLeVisionPictures,aChinesefilmproductionanddistributioncompany,andLeshiInternetInfo&Tech–aChineseversionofNetflix,whichcontinuesatrendseenelsewhereofcontentmakersteamingupwithplatformoperators
TMTisalsoamajortargetsectorforoutboundChineseinvestors,withanoticeablefocusonbuyingintosports
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Switzerland
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Spain
France
Ireland (Republic)
UKCanada
Mexico
U.S.
Note:thesefiguresrepresentthetotal numberofdealsannouncedbetween 1January2016and21June2016.
KEY
Numberof inboundacquisitions
Numberofoutbound acquisitions
482 448
259 272
205
13573
114
45
108
25
67
310
87
154
22
Dataprovidedby
741 986
146
Brazil
20Bermuda
A global snapshotTop 20 global inbound target markets and outbound acquirers
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Israel
Germany
Japan
India
Italy
Sweden
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Australia
Finland
Taiwan
Top 20 global inbound target markets – H1 2016
Rank Country Volume of deals
Value of deals USDm
1 U.S. 741 215,892.8
2 Switzerland 73 56,726.8
3 UK 482 44,065.8
4 Germany 332 19,920.5
5 China 310 17,566.3
6 Italy 166 14,617.8
7 Canada 205 13,677.2
8 Spain 108 12,345.4
9 Netherlands 154 12,227.3
10 Sweden 99 11,601.0
11 France 259 11,149.5
12 Finland 69 10,899.0
13 HongKong 146 9,657.0
14 Australia 158 8,816.8
15 Singapore 98 8,435.7
16 Israel 35 8,114.7
17 Japan 82 7,795.5
18 India 138 5,135.5
19 Brazil 114 3,953.4
20 Luxembourg 25 3,489.4
Top 20 global outbound acquirers – H1 2016
Rank Country Volume of deals
Value of deals USDm
1 China 371 120,268.4
2 Germany 204 88,924.0
3 U.S. 986 63,442.3
4 Canada 310 58,030.1
5 Ireland(Rep) 45 29,490.4
6 UK 448 20,129.1
7 France 272 18,985.1
8 HongKong 330 18,593.0
9 Japan 313 17,138.8
10 Mexico 22 10,641.1
11 Luxembourg 87 10,106.3
12 Singapore 150 8,667.2
13 Australia 136 7,509.0
14 Netherlands 146 7,271.8
15 Bermuda 20 7,150.2
16 Taiwan 65 6,981.7
17 Switzerland 135 6,956.3
18 Sweden 164 6,615.7
19 Spain 67 5,051.7
20 UnitedArabEmirates 55 4,056.3
371310 313
332 204
146 330
82
69
99 164
150158 136
166
13865
35
98
55 UAE
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A global snapshotA global snapshot – top markets for the world’s largest acquiring countries
0 220
Bermuda
Norway
Brazil
Finland
Switzerland
Singapore
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
Hong Kong
0 220
Papua New Guinea
Republic of Ireland
Luxembourg
Belgium
Sweden
India
Switzerland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Dem Rep of the Congo
Papua New Guinea
Switzerland
Spain
Netherlands
Brazil
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
0 220
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
South Korea
Australia
Singapore
United States of America
China
0 220
Denmark
Canada
Switzerland
China
Brazil
Japan
Italy
Germany
United States of America
United Kingdom
0 220
Japan
Guernsey
Poland
Canada
South Africa
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
France
United States of America
0 220
Israel
Hong Kong
Philippines
Netherlands
Vietnam
Italy
Germany
France
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Canada
Colombia
Panama
Chile
United States of America
Spain
Peru
Argentina
0 220
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Japan
India
Italy
Australia
Germany
France
Canada
United Kingdom
0 220
Costa Rica
India
Spain
Switzerland
Mexico
France
Germany
Colombia
Australia
United States of America
7861
241716
9544
1
118
33
222111
9341
191616
12119
42
190131
5757
524039
2420
14
1531110107655
21
8321
1514
88
553
1
44333
11111
2918
109
543221
3929
2618
1512118
11
18214
131212
9544
1
0 220
Bermuda
Norway
Brazil
Finland
Switzerland
Singapore
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
Hong Kong
0 220
Papua New Guinea
Republic of Ireland
Luxembourg
Belgium
Sweden
India
Switzerland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Dem Rep of the Congo
Papua New Guinea
Switzerland
Spain
Netherlands
Brazil
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
0 220
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
South Korea
Australia
Singapore
United States of America
China
0 220
Denmark
Canada
Switzerland
China
Brazil
Japan
Italy
Germany
United States of America
United Kingdom
0 220
Japan
Guernsey
Poland
Canada
South Africa
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
France
United States of America
0 220
Israel
Hong Kong
Philippines
Netherlands
Vietnam
Italy
Germany
France
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Canada
Colombia
Panama
Chile
United States of America
Spain
Peru
Argentina
0 220
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Japan
India
Italy
Australia
Germany
France
Canada
United Kingdom
0 220
Costa Rica
India
Spain
Switzerland
Mexico
France
Germany
Colombia
Australia
United States of America
7861
241716
9544
1
118
33
222111
9341
191616
12119
42
190131
5757
524039
2420
14
1531110107655
21
8321
1514
88
553
1
44333
11111
2918
109
543221
3929
2618
1512118
11
18214
131212
9544
1
China Germany
Hong Kong 7,145.9U.S. 28,862.2Germany 8,233.4UK 2,301.2Singapore 1,748.3
Switzerland 48,438.9Finland 8,955.0Brazil 1,700.0Norway 1,364.1Bermuda 2,770.0
Value of deals (USDm)
U.S. 68,382.7UK 14,748.0Netherlands 233.4Switzerland 882.5India 551.1
Sweden 339.0Belgium 544.4Luxembourg 2,100.0Ireland (Rep) 200.0Papua New Guinea
241.1
Value of deals (USDm)
CanadaU.S.
UK 16,191.2Canada 8,254.1France 6,021.0Germany 1,595.0Australia 5,259.5
Italy 2,666.0India 1,495.2Japan 1,732.1Ireland (Rep) 1,301.1Sweden 9,919.1
Value of deals (USDm)
UK 46,215.3U.S. 144.2Germany 3,179.7Italy 207.4Japan 365.9
Brazil 1,162.6China 3,658.6Switzerland 1,672.2Canada 621.6Denmark 360.0
Value of deals (USDm)
*Thesefiguresrepresentthetotalnumberofdealsannouncedbetween1January2016and21June2016.
M&A Insights | H1 201630
© Allen & Overy LLP 2016
0 220
Bermuda
Norway
Brazil
Finland
Switzerland
Singapore
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
Hong Kong
0 220
Papua New Guinea
Republic of Ireland
Luxembourg
Belgium
Sweden
India
Switzerland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Dem Rep of the Congo
Papua New Guinea
Switzerland
Spain
Netherlands
Brazil
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
0 220
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
South Korea
Australia
Singapore
United States of America
China
0 220
Denmark
Canada
Switzerland
China
Brazil
Japan
Italy
Germany
United States of America
United Kingdom
0 220
Japan
Guernsey
Poland
Canada
South Africa
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
France
United States of America
0 220
Israel
Hong Kong
Philippines
Netherlands
Vietnam
Italy
Germany
France
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Canada
Colombia
Panama
Chile
United States of America
Spain
Peru
Argentina
0 220
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Japan
India
Italy
Australia
Germany
France
Canada
United Kingdom
0 220
Costa Rica
India
Spain
Switzerland
Mexico
France
Germany
Colombia
Australia
United States of America
7861
241716
9544
1
118
33
222111
9341
191616
12119
42
190131
5757
524039
2420
14
1531110107655
21
8321
1514
88
553
1
44333
11111
2918
109
543221
3929
2618
1512118
11
18214
131212
9544
1
0 220
Bermuda
Norway
Brazil
Finland
Switzerland
Singapore
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
Hong Kong
0 220
Papua New Guinea
Republic of Ireland
Luxembourg
Belgium
Sweden
India
Switzerland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Dem Rep of the Congo
Papua New Guinea
Switzerland
Spain
Netherlands
Brazil
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
United States of America
0 220
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
South Korea
Australia
Singapore
United States of America
China
0 220
Denmark
Canada
Switzerland
China
Brazil
Japan
Italy
Germany
United States of America
United Kingdom
0 220
Japan
Guernsey
Poland
Canada
South Africa
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
France
United States of America
0 220
Israel
Hong Kong
Philippines
Netherlands
Vietnam
Italy
Germany
France
United Kingdom
United States of America
0 220
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Canada
Colombia
Panama
Chile
United States of America
Spain
Peru
Argentina
0 220
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Japan
India
Italy
Australia
Germany
France
Canada
United Kingdom
0 220
Costa Rica
India
Spain
Switzerland
Mexico
France
Germany
Colombia
Australia
United States of America
7861
241716
9544
1
118
33
222111
9341
191616
12119
42
190131
5757
524039
2420
14
1531110107655
21
8321
1514
88
553
1
44333
11111
2918
109
543221
3929
2618
1512118
11
18214
131212
9544
1
France Hong Kong
UKIreland
UK 377.7U.S. 28,060.7Germany 28.1Italy 20.5Japan 349.3
Brazil 203.3China 5.5Switzerland 287.3Canada 111.6Denmark 45.1
Value of deals (USDm)
U.S. 3,901.6France 962.7Italy 2,835.5Netherlands 6,786.3Denmark 702.4
South Africa 402.8Canada 1,663.3Poland 348.1Guernsey 222.0Japan 335.9
Value of deals (USDm)
U.S. 9,598.7Germany 4,212.1UK 324.6Italy 1,279.5Brazil 205.1
Netherlands 272.2Spain 236.9Switzerland 385.0Papua New Guinea 1,571.6
Dem Rep of the Congo 160.0
Value of deals (USDm)
China 10,831.9U.S. 2,579.5Singapore 495.5Australia 451.3South Korea 273.0
UK 490.6Germany 250.6Canada 976.9Malaysia 219.8Belgium 1,100.2
Value of deals (USDm)
U.S. 7,930.4UK 521.7France 734.6Germany 1,212.7Italy 3,100.1
Vietnam 304.8Netherlands 1,179.0Philippines 785.1Hong Kong 223.7Israel 212.0
Value of deals (USDm)
Argentina 610.8Peru 76.1Spain 9,172.1U.S. 646.0Chile 50.9
Panama 70.0Colombia 15.3Canada 0Ecuador 0Nicaragua 0
Value of deals (USDm)
Japan Mexico
About the research TheunderlyingdataforthisresearchcomesfromThomsonReuters.–Thedatacontainedinthispublicationspans1January2016and21June2016inclusive.
Dataprovidedby
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