IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
PUBLIC SERVICES IN EUROPE
Jan Willem GoudriaanEuropean Federation of Public Service Trade
Unions
ETUI Conference Climate Change Opportunity for Social Cooperation 29 March 2011 Brussels
Combating climate change requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies
Addressing climate change could be an opportunity for public services’ unions
EU climate change policies are biaised towards market-based approaches
EPSU strategy
Linking mitigation and adaptation
Overwhelming scientific proof of climate change, (estimates conservative?) human activities are crucial factors, and this can be catastrophic, particularly for public infrastructure and services
Mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) is essential to prevent the avoidable… Adaptation is essential to cope with the unavoidable.
Water stress and droughts
Source: Centers for environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. June 2001
Changes in severity of water stress and drought frequencies by 2070
Coastal flooding
Source: PESETA project. Coastal systems assessment
People actually flooded (thousands/year) across Europe by 2080s– Optimistic scenario
1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 18621863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 18711872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 18801881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 18891890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 18981899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 19071908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 19161917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 19251926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 19341935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 19431944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 19521953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 19611962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 19701971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 19791980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 2009
Each of the last 13 years was among the 14 warmest years on
record
Public services are at the fore front of climate action
Adaptation and mitigation bring opportunities for the creation of secure, quality jobs in all public services and utilities :
- Energy supply and distribution- Waste and Water management- Health care, social services - Central, local and regional governments
- Prevention, disaster, planning Public-Public Partnerships with developing countries However, adaptation will require a major departure from
business as usual in terms of skills and practices
Environmental Services in EPSU
Four sectors of public service character (solid waste management, waste water treatment, general public administration related to environment, and nature protection) make up almost 90% of total employment in pollution management industries.
And many other services will see change
Central Government
Environmental protection agencies Meteorological services Public buildings and infrastructure Insurance, financial, economic
regulation Research Security/ defence
Social Services
Impact on low income households• Advisory services - energy
Emergency situations Migration (EU COM » displaced
populations »
Municipal and Local Government
Tasks and responsibilities for disaster risk reduction and most of the mitigation, preparedness, planning and recovery efforts have been transferred to this level
Responsible for key local infrastructures – urban transport, health care, refuse, water, energy, planning, coordination of emergency services (firefighting, police, ambulance, civil protecion..)
But - sufficient human and financial resources (local budgets)
Health
Diseases – different regional impacts
Consumer of energy- CO2 producing Adaptation
Surveillance Being prepared for extreme conditions (cold, heat waves)
Longer term perspectives…
Utilities
Water and Waste Water Treatment Electricity and Gas
Shifts in employment across sectors Challenges – smart grids, smart meters
Waste Collection, sorting, recycling
Investment needs enormous Risk of market based solutions
Box 3: Report from the UK electricity and gas regulator (OFGEM) - Options for delivering secure and sustainable energy supplies
The UK regulator OFGEM published a report in February 2010. It examines if the “current arrangements in GB are adequate for delivering secure and sustainable electricity and gas supplies over the next 10-15 years. The key issues are:
There is a need for unprecedented levels of investment to be sustained over many years in difficult financial conditions and against a background of increased risk and uncertainty
The uncertainty in future carbon prices is likely to delay or deter investment in low carbon technology and lead to greater decarbonisation costs in the future.
Short term price signals at times of system stress do not fully reflect the value that customers place on supply security which may mean that the incentives to make additional peak energy supplies available and to invest in peaking capacity are not strong enough.
Interdependence with international markets exposes GB to a range of additional risks that may undermine GB security of supply.
The higher cost of gas and electricity may mean that increasing numbers of consumers are not able to afford adequate levels of energy to meet their requirements and that the competitiveness of industry and business is affected years.
Opportunities for progressive social change
Better working conditions: shorten working hours, reduced air pollution
Increased democratic control of the economy, less market competition
Reduced social inequalities
Gender equality
Strengthened social protection systems
EU White Paper on Adaptation (April 2009)
Strongly promotes market based instruments such as private insurance and Public-Private Partnerships, despite evidence of their inefficiency in delivering public goods (e.g. PSIRU)
But : Acknowledges that climate change worsens
existing inequalities across regions and households Recommends an assessment of the potential
employment impacts of climate change in Europe
EU climate change and energy package
Europe must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020
Carbon trading ‘mantra’ Establishes White Certificates trading A liberalised electricity and gas market is
assumed to be positive for environmental goals
Europe 2020 Strategy for Growth and Jobs
Europe 2020 strategy makes the case for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth
Flagships initiative « Resource efficient Europe » :
« Decouple economic growth from the use of resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy, increase the use of renewable energy sources, modernise our tranport sector and promote energy efficiency ».
Europe 2050 Towards Low Carbon Society
New targets Power sector to deliver major effort Build environment (public buildings...)
Emphasis on Energy Efficiency but not binding
Stresses role of private sector and private savings in delivering investment while recognising market does not deliver
Skimpy on Just Transition – funding for change
Environment, Climate Change and Austerity
Concerns about job cuts Human resource capacity in regulatory
agencies – environmental protection (nuclear safety ??)
Pay freezes and cuts Recruitment and retention of qualified staff ?
Resources What is core business ?
Annual Growth Survey, Economic Governance
Reprioritising the targets and EU 2020 strategy
Absence of positive social agenda, poverty reduction measures and climate change policies (sole focus on energy...)
Euro-Pact-Plus Further reinforces the Annual Growth
Strategy No positive environmental side Austerity endangers steps towards low-
carbon environmentally friendly economy
Support a EU ‘Just Employment Transition’ package
Strengthened social dialogue on climate change, supported by employment impact assessment studies
A massive EU investment programme in labour intensive, green public infrastructure and services, creating quality employment.
An EU Strategy for skills development and retraining of the workforce in order to make the transition to new green jobs possible for the workers
Strengthened social protection systems Public services solutions for delivering energy
efficiency and renewable energy
Just Employment Transition Electricity
Social dialogue electricity EPSU/EMCEF –Eurelectric project: Towards a low carbon electricity: employment effects and opportunities for the social partners
Just transition – shift (transition) towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly economy based on social dialogue between governments, employers and trade unions in a way that promotes high economic growth and investments in low carbon technologies while ensuring a smooth transition through adaptation and mitigation actions as well as through development of skilling and reskilling programmes and the creation of quality jobs
Endorse a proactive climate change agenda
EPSU consider EU emissions reduction commitment to 30%, given that: Developed countries’ fair share of effort is estimated to 25-
40% by the IPCC Substantial co-benefits would accrue to public services
sectors and workers, as well as most vulnerable social groups
Flexibility mechanisms lessen the costs of achieving 30% target
Emissions have fallen as a result of the economic crisis BUT with conditions: more commitment of large emitting
countries, funding for just transition - investment, training and jobs for those sectors and regions affected and safeguarding investment in the most efficient technologies..
Binding EU energy efficiency targets for 2020 EU targets on green and social public procurement Beyond GDP
For discussion: Rethink the relationship between growth and well-being
The « myth of decoupling » : continued economic growth with continually declining material throughput is possible
Achieving an equitable distribution of incomes across nations implies that material growth is curtailed in the richer nations
Social change – including changes in working time, consumption patterns, and social modes of organization – will be as important as technological advances
Developing new measurements of progress that include environmental and social indicators (Beyond GDP)
...faster than expected
IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative
Subsequent research shows
increasing rates of: Global Greenhouse Gas emissions Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic
ice-sheets, alpine glaciers)
Sea level rise
Also: carbon stored in permafrost = twice the
atmospheric carbon