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IEA Technology Roadmap The global iron and steel sector
Peter Levi, International Energy AgencyOECD Steel Committee, Paris, 22nd March 2019
IEA
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IntroductionBackground and broader context
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The IEA Global Family
The IEA works around the world to support accelerated clean energy transitions with unparalleled data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions.
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The IEA Global Family
The IEA works around the world to support accelerated clean energy transitions with unparalleled data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions.
© OECD/IEA 2019
The IEA Global Family
The IEA works around the world to support accelerated clean energy transitions with unparalleled data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions.
© OECD/IEA 2019
After remaining flat for 3 years, global CO2 emissions rose again in 2017, to an all-time high.
The global climate challenge: Where are we?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
CO2 emissionsIncrease in 2017
5
10
15
20
25
30
35GtCO2
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A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet carbon emission reduction goals, notably energy efficiency, renewables and CCUS.
The global climate challenge: Where do we need to go?
0
10
20
30
40
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%
Fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
Contribution of various levers to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Global CO2 reductions by technology area
2 degrees Scenario – 2DS
Reference Technology Scenario – RTS 0 200 400GtCO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
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The IEA tracks the progress of various technologies critical to a successful clean energy transition.
The global climate challenge: How are we doing?
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IEA Technology RoadmapsLow-carbon pathways for key technologies
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IEA Technology Roadmaps
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 2010 2016 2017
• Since 2009, 22 Technology Roadmaps and How2Guides (33 publications)
• Re-endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meetings in 2016 (Japan) and 2017 (Italy) “(G7 Ministers) welcomed the progress report on the Second Phase of IEA’s Technology Roadmaps, focused on viable and high impact technologies”
• Close engagement with key industry stakeholders
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How do we get there?
• What is the status of the technology today?• What alternative technology options may be available in the long-run? • What data are available, and what data are needed?
• Assessment of technology performance and innovation challenges• Consideration of barriers to market deployment and enabling factors• Evaluation of cost-competitiveness across technology options and routes
PRIORITISING ACTION
• How policies and regulation can support the clean energy transition?• How to accelerate technology adoption with the private sector?• How collaborative mechanisms can boost technology innovation?
Stakeholder Engagement
Context and Analysis
Implementable Pathway
PrioritisingAction
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Industry-related IEA Technology Roadmaps
Global Iron and
Steel
Global Cement update
2009 2013 2018
Global Cement
Regional Cement(India)
Global Chemicals
2019
Status review Cement (India)
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Why steel?
Steel production accounts for around a fifth of industrial energy consumption and about a quarter of direct industrial CO2 emissions.
Note: Data are estimates for 2017; industrial emissions include process emissions
29%
21%
7%4%
4%
35%
Industrial energy consumption
15%
24%
26%2%2%
31%
Industrial emissions
ChemicalsSteelCementPaperAluminiumOther industry
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Regional contexts for “deep-dive” follow-ups
India’s crude steel production is projected to grow by more than 400% between 2015 and 2050, compared to global growth of 30% over the same period.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Index 2015 = 100Regional production projections
China
India
North America
Central & South America
Europe
Africa
Middle East
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Iron and steel sector Technology Roadmap
Aims, scope and methodological overview
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Enabling strategies for sustainable iron and steel production
Sustainable Iron and Steel
Transition
Energy efficiency
Material efficiency
Innovative technologies
Switching to alternative
fuels
System-level sustainable
benefits
Sustainable transition goals:
• Environmental sustainability
• Energy security• Least-cost
transition pathways
• Synergies between Iron and Steel and other sectors
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Enabling strategies for sustainable iron and steel production
Energy efficiency
Source: Gutowski et al. (2013), “The Energy Required to Produce Materials: Constraints on energy-intensity improvements, parameters of demand”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371.
Current average
blast furnace
~20 GJ/t crude steel
Practical minimum
energy needs
10.4 GJ/t crude steel
Current state-of-the-art blast
furnaces
12 GJ/t crude steel
Thermodynamic minimum
requirement
9.8 GJ/t crude steel
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Exploring alternative low-CO2 steel technologies
Innovative technologies
• Upgraded smelting reduction. Maximises the CO2 content of the off-gases through pure oxygen operation, facilitating CO2 capture. Pilot trials currently underway. Avoids the need for coke or sinter. [Large pilot demonstration TRL 6-7]
• Oxy blast furnace and top gas recycle: The CO2 content of the top gas is raised by replacing the air in the blast furnace with oxygen and recycling the top gas. Lowers coke requirements. [Large pilot demonstration TRL 6]
• Upgraded DRI process (based on natural gas) that reuses off-gases from the shaft as a reducing agent after CO2 capture. [Paper studies]
• Coke oven gas (COG) reforming: Increasing the hydrogen concentration of COG through reforming tar to reduce net energy consumption. Through integration with oxy blast furnaces, CO2capture can be added.
• Hydrogen from renewable-electricity for DRI production [Pre-feasibility]
• Direct use of electricity to reduce iron ore relying on renewable electricity. [Intermediate TRLs]
CO2MANAGEMENT
• Hydrogen from renewable-electricity for DRI production [Pre-feasibility]
• Direct use of electricity to reduce iron ore relying on renewable electricity. [Intermediate TRLs]CO2
AVOIDANCE
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Exploring alternative low-CO2 steel technologies
“CCS”
ΣIDERWIN
COURSE50
HYBRIT
SUSSTEEL
GrInHy
H2FUTURE
H2REDUCTION
H2PRODUCTION
ELECTRICITY NOVELFLASHOXIDE
SMELTING
MOLTENOXIDEELEC.SALCOS
CCU/CCUS
CARBON2
CHEM
STEELANOL
BAO-CCU
EOR ON DRI
EOR on
DRI
COURSE50
I&SCCS
HISARNA
Carbon
BIOMASS
BIOMASS
ElectricityHydrogen
Slide content courtesy of the World Steel Association.
Innovative technologies
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Material efficiency from cradle to grave
Material efficiency
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Understanding current and future supply value chains is critical
Source: Cullen et al. (2012), “Mapping the Global Flow of Steel: From Steelmaking to End-Use Goods”, Environ. Sci. Technol. 46, 24, 13048-13055.
Vehicles Material efficiency
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Exploring further sustainability opportunities
Source: Adapted from Tata Steel presentation from kick-off workshop for the IEA Global Iron & Steel Technology Roadmap, 2017
System-level sustainable
benefits
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ETP modelling: the engines behind the analysis
Bottom-up, technology-rich modelling to yield sector-specific insight
End-use sectors Service demands
TIMES modelsIndustry
Long-term simulationBuildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc.
Passenger mobilityFreight transport
…
Space heatingWater heating
Lighting…
Material demands…
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat deliveryETP-TIMES Supply model
Electricity and heat generation
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ETP Industry sub-sector model structure
MACRO ECONOMIC INPUTS- GDP projections- Population projections
MARKET DYNAMICS- Bulk material production- Historic dynamics of
material demand
MATERIAL EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES- Post-consumer scrap recycling and
reuse- Manufacturing yield improvement- Clinker substitution
PRODUCTION MODULE
MATERIAL PRODUCTION PROJECTIONSHIGH and LOW demand variants by
SCENARIO
TIMES TECHNOLOGY
MODEL
- Average plant life times- Installed capacities- Actual technology energy
performance- BAT energy performance- CAPEX and fixed OPEX- Energy prices- Feedstock and raw
materials availability- Material yields- CO2 intensity factors- Water use and air
pollution factors
- Energy use (feedstock and fuel)- CO2 emissions (energy and process)- Technology investments- Generation of industrial by-products- Other environmental implications
Scenario results
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Key milestones for the Iron and Steel RoadmapTimeline• Project kick-off – November 2017, Paris• Materials demand trends in Transportation and Construction – March 2018, Paris
• Asian Steel Experts Dialogue – May 2018, Shanghai• American Steel Experts Dialogue – August 2018, São Paulo• Indian Steel Experts Dialogue – February 2019, New Delhi
• Enabling policies and mechanisms workshop – this Friday 29th March, Paris• Modelling and analysis commences – April 2019• Tentative launch – Q4 2019
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High-level overview of the core Iron and Steel modelling structure