Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Background
Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues.
•We have to cope with climate change, aging population, etc.
•S&T that have potential to make innovation happen should be focused on.
• Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making
• Link between S&T policy and foresight
2001
1971 -2001 The Technology Foresight
2005 The 8th S&T Foresight
Multi methods
Delphi
2010 The 9th S&T Foresight
Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary
Global and national changes
2010 Integration with innovation policy
1995S&T Basic
Law1996-2000The 1st S&T Basic
Plan
2001-2005The 2nd S&T Basic
Plan
2006-2010The 3rd S&T Basic
PlanInnovation 25
2011-2015The 4th S&T Basic
Plan
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Survey design
Science and technology foresight for solving grand challenges
•Mission-oriented approach: four grand challenges and solutions for them
•Interdisciplinary discussion / diversified participants
•Integrative study
Scenario writing
Delphi survey
Regional workshop
To find a solution in grand challenges:
•What are priority research areas from a strategic point of view?•W hat areas of science and technology should be promoted to be integrated?•What social system has to be introduced, or restructured?
Four grand challenges
Central player in the scientific and technological arena
Sustainable growth through green innovation
Successful model for a healthy and aged society
Secure life
Social system
renovation
International collaboratio
n
Global challenge and national challenge
Global challenge and national challenge
Global challenge and national challenge
Global challenge and national challenge
Solution
“Integration of wisdom” toward solving the challenges
Strategic priority research for each area
Basic research
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Method: Preliminary discussion
Mission/contribution of S&T
•Four thematic panels discussed on contribution of S&T regarding safety, security, international cooperation, and international competitiveness.
•Panels concluded 24 priority issues and importance of system thinking.
Reassurance on safety:Transparent systemHigh quality of health etc.
International cooperation:Development of untapped/un-discovered resourcesInternational expansion of education serviceetc.
Security:Ensuring safety of artificial objectsSafety from environment and disasteretc.
International competitiveness:Technology transfer donation to explore future demandProposal of original methodologiesetc.
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Method: Delphi survey
Interdisciplinary approach, breaking away from established disciplines
Mission-oriented approach
Discussion on:
-Safety-Security-International collaboration-International competitiveness
Panel Viewpoint
Panel 1
Utilization of electronics, communication, and nanotechnology in a ubiquitous society.
Panel 2
Information technology including media and contents.
Panel 3
Biotechnology and nanotechnology to contribute to humankind.
Panel 4
Medical technology to contribute to healthy lifestyles of the nation’s people using IT.
Panel 5
Understanding of dynamics of space, earth, and life, and science and technology which expand the region of human activity.
Panel 6
Promotion of diverse energy technology innovations.
Panel 7
Necessary resources, including water, food, minerals.
Panel 8
Technologies for protecting environment and forming sustainable society.
Panel 9
Fundamental technologies, including substances, materials, nanosystems, processing, measurement, etc.
Panel 10
Manufacturing technologies which totally support development of industry, society, and science and technology.
Panel 11
Strengthening of management led/required by advancement of science and technology.
Panel 12
Infrastructure technologies supporting daily life base and industrial base.
目標別議論
安心
安全
(国際)協調
(国際)競争
人文
・社会
科学
系メ
ンバ
ーを
含む
学際
的議
論
科学技術の分野横断議論
No.1
分野横断型メンバーによる融合型議論
課題 領域
No.2 No.12・・・・・
Mis
sion-o
riente
d
dis
cuss
ion
Inte
rdis
cipl
inar
y di
scus
sion
(p
artic
ipat
ion
of e
xper
ts i
n so
cial
sci
ence
and
hu
man
ities
)
(Intl) competition
Security
Safety
(Intl) cooperation
Cross-cutting discussion on S&TComprehensive discussion by
participants from all areas
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Method: Scenario writing
•Expert groups prepared scenarios mainly focusing on technological and social conditions to solve grand chalenges we are facing.
•Picture of our daily life based on the results of delphi results.
•Young ICT experts envisioned services using ICT in our life in the future.
Picture of our life thirty years from now
Promoting factors toward the desired future- R&D priority- Human resource development- Cooperation/integration among fields/sectors- Reformation of social systems- Policy collaboration- Creation of new industry/business/employment- Public acceptance- International standpoint
+
Delphi topics
Future stories
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Method: Regional workshop
Discussion of the capability of local regions regarding sustainable development.
•Workshops involving citizens, business people, researchers, and public officials.
•Discussion of desired futures and factors conducive to their realization.
Preliminary study
- Literature searching
Preliminary study
- Literature searching
Regional workshops
-Workshops at eight local regions-Discussion of desired future in the region
Regional workshops
-Workshops at eight local regions-Discussion of desired future in the region
Wrap-up workshop
-Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures
Wrap-up workshop
-Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures
AnalysisAnalysis
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Method: Integrative study
Picture of our daily life in the future
S&T for solving global/national
challengesScenarios by group work
Promoting factors for the desired
future
Mapping
Ideas from younger generation
New industries and services for
each regionPolicy
implicationsInterdisciplinary Delphi
目標別議論
安心
安全
(国際)協調
(国際)競争
人文
・社会
科学
系メ
ンバ
ーを
含む
学際
的議
論
科学技術の分野横断議論
No.1
分野横断型メンバーによる融合型議論
課題 領域
No.2 No.12・・・・・
Mis
sion-o
riente
d
dis
cuss
ion
Inte
rdis
cipl
inar
y di
scus
sion
(p
artic
ipat
ion
of e
xper
ts i
n so
cial
sci
ence
and
hu
man
ities
)
(Intl) competition
Security
Safety
(Intl) cooperation
Cross-cutting discussion on S&TComprehensive discussion by
participants from all areas
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Result: Picture of our daily life in the future
Better life around 2025 based on Delphi results
•A society in which various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail.
•A society where individuals can use various types of energy selectively based on their comprehensive evaluation of value and can feel that they proactively contribute to global warming prevention and environmental preservation.
•A society in the early stage of coping with the various disasters caused by environmental changes.
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Result: S&T for solving global/national challenges
36 delphi areas of importance
•Half of them are related to energy, environment, and resources.
•Areas related to ICT and management are also emphasized.
Areas related to energy, resource and environment
Energy [Panel 1] Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment [Panel 3]Space and ocean management technology (including observations) [Panel 5]Nuclear energy [Panel 6]Renewable energy [Panel 6]Fossil energy [Panel 6] Efficient power storage system [Panel 6]Energy saving [Panel 6]Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources [Panel 7]Water resources [Panel 7]Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA [Panel 7]Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources, and CCS [Panel 7] Life style and environment [Panel 8]Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming [Panel 8]Technology for urban waste minimization / material circulation for environmental conservation / resource- and energy- saving products [Panel 8]Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil / circulative use technology for water resources [Panel 8]Energy, resources and environment [Panel10]
Areas related to health and medical care
Applied bio-nanotechnology [Panel 3]Medical treatment [Panel 3]Medical treatment aiming at safety and security [Panel 4]Creation of new medical technology [Panel 4]Development of predictive and preventive medicine [Panel 4]
Other areas (ICT, base technologies, management, etc.)
Socialization of information [Panel 2]Cloud computing [Panel 2]New principle for information and communication [Panel 2]Space technologies [Panel 5]Base materials for Nano-technology [Panel 9]Output (device, systemization and applied technology) [Panel 9]Globalization, value-adding and market creation [Panel 10]S&E human resource problem, the declining birth rate and aging population [Panel 10] Management corresponding to globalization [Panel 11]Management in service sector and environment business, management in education, governmental management [Panel 11]Framework for facilitation of social innovation [Panel 11]Management of human resources, transfer of knowledge [Panel 11]Strategy for maintenance of infrastructures [Panel 12]
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Result: Mapping
Health and
medical care
X12X11
X10
X9
X8
X7 X6
X5
X4
X3
X2
X1
ICT
Reduction of carbon-dioxide
emission
Water resources
Nano-/ bio-technology
Culture and life style
Support for food and production
Infrastructure
Resources
*Black codes: ID of delphiareas (the numbers indicate a panel)
* Red codes: ID of group scenarios
Delphi areas with especially strong focus (4 areas)
Delphi areas with strong focus (8 areas)
Delphi areas with focus (24 areas) Scenarios where S&T are expected to make great contributions
Delphi areas and group scenarios are plotted according to their similarity. Distinctive items are positioned at outer space and common items are positioned near the center.
Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Policy implication and conclusion
•Mission-oriented and interdisciplinary approach is effective to find out the direction of innovation and its promoting factors.
•Broad participation and collaboration will be expected.
• Discussion in terms of both technology and society, that is, system thinking, will be indispensable.
To implement foresight exercise for creating innovation that leads to solving global and national challenges;