- 1.ICES Advisory practice: shaping the boundary between science
and policy Martin Pastoors 23 November 2009 FNP-21806 Policy for
Natural Resource Management: Models and Trends
2. A sea full of life and activity 3. How to maintain
sustainable fishing? 4. The role of ICESas a knowledge provider....
5. ... and the boundary between science and policy Science Policy
6. ICES To advance the scientific capacity to give advice on human
activities affecting, and affected by, marine ecosystems. 7.
Advisory space 8. My ICES CV
-
- Herring, north sea demersal (1997-2003)
- Chair of North Sea demersal Group
- Chair of Advisory Committee on Fishery Management (ACFM)
- Vice-chair of Advisory Committee
9. Topics
- Fisheries advice and policy landscape
- Introduction of precautionary approach
10. 1. Fisheries advisory and policy-landscape in Europe 11.
Fisheries advisory / decision process 12. Disproportionate advisory
capacity in the European Commission? 13. ICES 2005 annual input
& output 14. cod science input and output 15. cod science
quality assessment 16. ICES advice structure Working Group Review
Group Advice drafting group Advisory Committee 17. Advisory
Committee culture
- Ownership of management problems: We
- Textual arguments / negotiated advice
18. Example: textual arguments in North Sea Cod advice
http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press_corner/pictures/north_sea_cod_en.jpg
19. Cod advice (2002)
- Given the very low stock size, the recent poor recruitments,
and continued high fishing mortality despite management efforts to
promote stock recovery, ICES recommends aclosure of all
fisheriesfor cod as a targeted species or by-catch...
20. Cod advice (2003)
- Given the very low stock size, the recent poor recruitments and
the continued substantial catch ...., ICES recommends
theimplementation of a recovery planto ensure a safe and rapid
rebuilding of SSB to levels above Bpa. ....
- In accordance with such a recovery plan ICES recommends azero
catchin 2004.
21. Cod advice (2004)
- Given the low stock size, recent poor recruitment, continued
substantial catch ..., the uncertainty in the assessment, and the
inability to reliably forecast catch, ICES recommendszero
catchuntil the estimate of SSB is above Blim or other strong
evidence of rebuilding is observed.
22. Cod advice (2005)
- Given the low stock size and recent poor recruitment, it is not
possible to identifyany non-zero catchwhich will be compatible with
thePrecautionary Approach.Rebuilding can only be achieved if
fishing mortality is significantly reduced on a longer term.
23. Cod advice (2008)
- Because the existing recovery plan is not considered to be in
accordance with the precautionary approach, ICES continues to
advise on exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary
limits, and recommends that the fisheries for codbe closeduntil an
initial recovery of the cod SSB has been proven.
24. Conclusion on cod
- Many textual permutations on the same message
- Different strategies of dealing with science-policy
interface.
25. Advisory report highly technical 26. ICES website also
technical 27. Explaining advice with 3 key terms Credibility
Salience Legitimacy Scientific plausibility Relevant and useable
Unbiased, meeting standards 28. 2. The TAC machine 29. TAC Machine?
30. Bygdeforskning Artist: Bjarne StenbergThe Cyborg fish: chain of
standardizations allow stock assessments and TAC forecasts
http://www.cyborg-fish.net/ 31. TAC Machine 32. The TAC Machine
requires VPA 33. TAC as aboundary object
- Certification of Knowledge
- Authorization of intervention
34. Science-policy interface constituted by the TAC Machine
- Stock assessment is legitimated as a science in order to
stabilize the TAC as a boundary object
-
- The TAC Machine fish is reconstructed as a realist object
-
- The Stock assessment operator is reconstructed as an autonomous
scientist
-
- Stock assessment science is organized according to a mertonian
ethos of science
35. TAC Machine? ICES Herring Working Group 1996 36. 3. ICES and
theprecautionary approach 37. The precautionary approach and the
boundary between science and policy Science Policy 38. What came
before the Precautionary approach: MBAL
- there is likely to be a level of spawning stock size below
which theprobability of poor recruitment increases...some idea of
the bounds within which it may lie can be obtained by examining the
historic variation in recruitment at different levels of spawning
stock. For present purposes, this level is named the " minimum
biologically acceptable level" (MBAL).
Serchuk, F. and R. J. R. Grainger (1992). Development of the
basis and form of the ICES fishery management advice: historical
background (1976-1990) and the new form of advice (1991-??). ICES
C.M. 1992 / Assess: 20. 39. Precautionary Approach:history of a
concept
- UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks
agreement (1995)
- FAO Code of Conduct for responsible fisheries (1995)
40. Rio declaration (1992)
-
- (Principle 15) In order to protect the environment,
theprecautionary approachshall be widely applied by States
according to their capabilities.Where there are threats of serious
or irreversible damage,lack of full scientific certaintyshall not
be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to
prevent environmental degradation.
41. UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks
agreement (1995)
-
- Two types of precautionary reference points should be
used:conservation, orlimit, reference pointsand management,
ortarget, reference points . Limit reference points set boundaries
which are intended to constrain harvesting withinsafe biological
limitswithin which the stocks can producemaximum sustainable
yield.Target reference points are intended to meet management
objectives.
42. MBAL can be reconstituted in the precautionary approach MBAL
Precautionary biomass 43. Request from EC to ICES
- The Commission therefore request ICES to provide for each stock
fishing mortality limits and spawning biomass thresholds that will
satisfymedium and long terms sustainabilityof these stocks. The
harvest strategy and corresponding fishing mortalities should have
associatedhigh probabilityof maintaining the stock above the
defined threshold level within defined time periods. The range of
probabilities that may be used by ICES and that would satisfy the
Commission are95%, 90%, and 80%.
44. ICES struggle with the precautionary approach 1997 1998 1998
2001 2002 2003 2007 Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (1)
Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (2) ACFM 1998 Study Group
on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (1) Study
Group on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (2 +
3) Study Group on the Precautionary Reference Points for Advice
(SGPRP) Study Group on the Biological Reference Points for North
east Artic Cod (SGBRP) 2003 Workshop on Target and Limit reference
points (WKREF) 45. So what is this beast called precautionary
approach? 46. SGPA 1997 is shifting the concept of precautionary
approach
- From a generic description to an specific technical calculation
of an uncertainty threshold:
-
- In order to avoid limit reference points, management actions
should be taken before fishing mortality exceeds Flimit or biomass
is below Blimit.ACFM/ICES may therefore identify additional
reference points, Fpa (Fprecautionary approach) and Bpa where
remedial action would be advisedin order to avoid the limit
reference points being reached.
-
- The precautionary basis for advice given by ACFM will be that,
for a given stock, the probability of exceeding the limit should be
no more than5%in any given year.
47. ... but the ambitions are still quite broad
- ACFM/ICES will advise and comment on how well aspects of
management conform to the precautionary approach with respect
to:
-
- the existence, compatibility and measurability
ofobjectiveswhich would influence advice and the choice of
targets;
-
- the existence and choice of limit and targetreference pointsand
management plans;
-
- the existence, appropriateness and effectiveness ofrecovery
plans ;
-
- the effectiveness of measures taken tomonitor and
regulateexploitation rate;
-
- the effectiveness of measures explicitly taken to
protectnon-target species, biodiversity and habitats.
Maximum Sustainable Yield andTarget reference pointshave been
dropped 48. ACFM 1998: role division on reference points
-
- ACFMs mandate to makefinal decisions on limit reference points
, but fisherymanagement agenciesshould be involved in decisions on
precautionary reference points. (ICES 1998a, p2)
Science Policy 49. Preliminary closure in 1998: defining the
reference values 50. Preliminary closure in 1998: reasoning behind
the values Blim-> Bpa 51. Dealing with uncertainty and risk: the
basis for e 1.645*
- Few studies have adequately estimated thefull range of
uncertaintiesassociated with assessing fish stock sizes and
predicting future catches....
- The results of studies ... have indicated measurement errors
of20 to 40% CV(Coefficient of Variation) for the projected catches
for a particular year.
- Therefore,CVs of this magnitude were utilized(where
appropriate) to evaluate uncertainty of the reference points.
- The overall real uncertainty, however, is likely to
begreaterthan the CVs of 2040% suggest. (ICES 1998a)
Uncertainties are first assumed and then reconstituted as 1.645
52. ... and the new ACFM presentation Example: Cod in the North Sea
53. Attempts to apply rule-based decision systems in ICES (2001)
54. Further developments 2001-2003: attempts to be more systematic
Segmented regression to define Blim Method to derive other ref.
points 55. A sudden closure in 2003: clients dont want new
reference points
-
- It was stressed that harvest control rules would be much better
and that EC is requesting this. .... It was considered by some
thatgoing for the HCR would need almost exactly the same analysis
and considerations of the basic principle and philosophy as the old
PA reference points.They may have a new name but would be of a
similar nature. (ACFM minutes 2003)
56. Conclusion: PA as boundary ordering device
- Defining resonsibilities between science and policy
- Lack of transparency on basis for choice of reference
points
- Pre-determining risk options from science perspective
- No formal closure of debate; the struggle continues
57. Overall reflections
- TAC machine and precautionary approach operate in the same
way:
-
- Boundary ordering devices
- Science in a mertonian perspective (objective) and as an
epistemic community (consensus)
58. Post-normal Science?
59. Garcia & Charles: combining a science-based analytical
process with a negotiation-based decision-making process 60.
Wageningen UR, Centre for Marine PolicyP.O.Box1528 8901 BV
Leeuwarden, the Netherlands phone +31 317 487 849mobile +31 610 939
549 Email [email_address] Internet www.cmp.wur.nl
Blogmartinpastoors.blogspot.com/ Twitter@martinpastoorsor
@marinepolicy LinkedIn nl.linkedin.com/in/martinpastoors 61.
Further reading
- Garcia, S. M., A. Zerbi, C. Aliaume, T. Do Chi and G. Lassere (
2003 ). The ecosystem approach to fisheries. Issues, terminology,
principles, etc.
- Morishita, J. (2008). "What is the ecosystem approach for
fisheries management?" Marine Policy 32(1): 19-26.
- FAO (2003). FAO Technical guidelines for responsible fisheries
no. 4. Fisheries management. Suppl. 1 The Ecosystem Approach to
fisheries, FAO. 2003.
- Gislason, H. (2006). The Requirements of an Ecosystem Approach
to Fisheries Management (chapter 12).In:Motos and D. C.
Wilson.
- Garcia, S. M. and A. T. Charles (2008). Fishery systems and
linkages
- Rice, J. C. (2005). "Implementation of the ecosystem approach
to fisheries management " MEPS
- ICES (2004). Report of the 13th ICES dialogue meeting:
Advancing scientific advice for an ecosystem approach to
management
- Holmes, J. and J. Lock (2009). "Generating the evidence for
marine fisheries policy and management." Marine Policy 34(1):
29-35.
- Frid, C., O. Paramor and C. Scott (2005). "Ecosystem-based
fisheries management: progress in the NE Atlantic."Marine Policy 29
(5): 461-469.