How do we prepare students for a world we cannot imagine?
Dylan Wiliam
Three long-term trends2
Changes in: The world of work The abilities of children The quality of teachers
How we should respond
Non-economic benefits of education3
More educated students live longer are healthier have less disability towards the end of their lives are less likely to be teenage parents are less likely to be incarcerated are less likely to commit suicide
Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Education (www.learningbenefits.net)
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Raising achievement matters for society too
Increased economic growth: Net present value to the U.S. of a 25-point increase on
PISA: $40 trillion (U.S. national debt: $13 trillion) Net present value to the U.S. of getting all students
to 400 on PISA: $70 trillion
Changes in skills needed in the workplace
Skill category Percentage change 1969-1999
Complex communication +14%Expert thinking/problem solving +8%Routine manual –3%Non-routine manual –5%Routine cognitive –8%
Autor, Levy & Murnane (2003)
Real-terms changes in salary: 1978 to 2005
Education level Change in salaryPostgraduate qualification +28%BA/BSc +19%Some college 0%High school diploma 0%High school dropout -16%
Economic Policy Institute (2010)
Off-shoring and automation
Off-shoreable Not off-shoreable
SkilledRadiographerSecurity analystTax accountant
Surgeon (?)BricklayerHairdresser
UnskilledFood packagerData entry clerkCall centre operator
Grocery store clerkReceptionistRetail salesperson
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How flat is the world?
A. Physical mail:B. Telephone minutes:C. Internet traffic:D. First generation immigrants:E. University students:F. People, ever in their livesG. Goods and services:
Percentage crossing national boundaries:1. 1%2. 5%3. 10%4. 20%5. 50%
Mostly round; some flat bits (Ghemawat, 2011)
Percentage crossing national boundaries Physical mail: 1 Telephone minutes: 2 Internet traffic: 17 First generation immigrants: 3 University students: 2 People, ever in their lives: 10 Goods and services: 10
There is only one 21st century skill
So the model that says learn while you’re at school, while you’re young, the skills that you will apply during your lifetime is no longer tenable. The skills that you can learn when you’re at school will not be applicable. They will be obsolete by the time you get into the workplace and need them, except for one skill. The one really competitive skill is the skill of being able to learn. It is the skill of being able not to give the right answer to questions about what you were taught in school, but to make the right response to situations that are outside the scope of what you were taught in school. We need to produce people who know how to act when they’re faced with situations for which they were not specifically prepared. (Papert, 1998)
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In place of achievement gaps11
An alternative aspiration: All students proficient Many students excellent All sub-groups of students properly represented in the
excellent
Massive gains in US IQ over time
WISC subtest IQ gains from 1947 to 2001 (Percentile ranks)
Information 6Arithmetic 6Vocabulary 12Comprehension 27Picture completion 28Block design 36Object assembly 38Coding 38Picture arrangement 42Similarities 44
Flynn (2007)
What kinds of schools do we need?
School model Ethos Key processTalent refineries School must provide
opportunities for students to show what they can do
Ensuring good teaching and syllabus coverage
Talent incubators
All students students can learn, but not all students can achieve at high levels
Drawing out what is within the student
Talent factories All students can achieve at high levels
Whatever it takes
Where’s the solution?14
School organization School structure Curriculum reform Technology Workforce reforms
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We need to focus on classrooms, not schools
In the USA, variability at the classroom level is at least four times that at school level. As long as you go to school, it doesn’t matter very
much which school you go to. But it matters very much which classrooms you are in.
It’s not class size. It’s not the between-class grouping strategy. It’s not the within-class grouping strategy.
And most of all on teachers16
Take a group of 50 teachers: Students taught by the most effective teacher in that group
of 50 teachers learn in six months what those taught by the average teacher learn in a year.
Students taught by the least effective teacher in that group of 50 teachers will take two years to achieve the same learning
(Hanushek & Rivkin, 2006) And furthermore:
In the classrooms of the most effective teachers, students from disadvantaged backgrounds learn at the same rate as those from advantaged backgrounds
(Hamre & Pianta, 2005).
The value of teachers17
According to Chetty et al. (2011) being taught by a good teacher for just one year increases lifetime earnings by $50,000 (NPV: $9,000)
A good teacher contributes around $450,000 to the US economy every single year (Hanushek, 2011)
Long-term trends in the abilities of teachers18
1941-45 1946-49 1951-53 1957-59 1960-62 1963-640%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%White male professionals Female professionalsWhite male teachers Female teachers
Prop
ortio
n w
ith IQ
ove
r 113
Bacolod (2007)
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Replace existing teachers with better ones?
De-select (i.e., fire) ineffective teachers? Replace least effective 10% with average teachers
2 points on PISA (right away, if it can be done) Raising the bar for entry into the profession?
Require teachers to have masters degrees 0 points on PISA (ever)
Exclude the lowest performing 30% from getting in 5 points on PISA (in 30 years time)
So we have to help the teachers we have improve The “love the one you’re with” strategy
How do we speed up teacher improvement?20
Merit pay for effective teachers? Can’t be done fairly, and doesn’t work
Create a culture of continuous improvement Responsibilities of teachers
To continue to improve classroom skill for the whole career To focus the improvement on ideas supported by evidence
Responsibilities of leaders Create the expectation for continuous improvement Keep the focus on what is likely to improve achievement Provide support Encourage risk taking
And what does the research show we need to do?
Intervention Extra months of learning per year
Cost/classroom/year
Class-size reduction (by 30%) 4 $30k
Increase teacher content knowledge from weak to strong.
2 ?
Formative assessment/Assessment for learning 8 $3k
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Approaches to formative assessment
Improve team-work and systems Professional learning communities
Regular meetings focused on data 16 points on PISA (in two to three years)
Improve classroom practice Teacher learning communities
Investing in high-quality PD for teachers 30 points on PISA (in two to three years)
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