An analysis of real estate activity through August 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
The recently constructed Rockingham Memorial Hospital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RMHOnline.com
SEPTEMBER 2012
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
Executive Summary
Pace of Home Sales: August92 homes sold in August 2012, showing a 16% increase from August 2011 when 79 homes sold -- and a 48% increase from August 2010 when only 62 homes sold. Home Values: AugustMedian sales prices decreased 9.4% but average sales prices increased 1.7% when comparing August 2012 to August 2011. Days on Market: AugustHomes sold in an average of 229 days in August 2012, a 29% increase from 178 days in July August and a 11% increase from the 207 day average in August 2010.
The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.
Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date571 homes sold in the first eight months of 2012. This is a 9.4% increase from 2011 when 522 homes had sold, and a 7.3% increase as compared to 2010 when 532 homes sold. Home Values: Year to DateMedian sales prices increased 0.9% but average sales prices decreased 1.5% when comparing 2012 YTD values to 2011 YTD. Days on Market: Year to DateThe length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (222 days) increased 6% since 2011 when the average was 209 days on the market.
Buyer Activity100 buyers committed to buy in August 2012, compared to 86 in August 2011 (a 16% increase), and 60 in July 2010 (a 67% increase).
Single Family Home Sales437 single family homes sold thus far in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $195,000. Townhouse Sales134 townhouses sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $138,800 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.
Foreclosures169 trustee deeds have been recorded thus far in 2012 compared to 571 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.
InventoryInventory levels decreased during August 2012 to 706 residential properties currently for sale, down from 727 one month ago, and down from 877 one year ago.
SupplyAll price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 8 months under $200k, 10 months between $200k and $300k, 13 months between 300k and $400k, and 41 months above $400k. Price Per Square FootMedian price per square foot of single family homes has decreased to $101/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012, as compared to $106/sf in the 2nd quarter of 2012.
Lot Sales33 lots of less than an acre sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $54,900 from $54,500 during 2011.
Land Sales30 parcels of land greater than an acre sold thus far in 2012 compared to 49 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $13,934 in 2012.
September 9, 2012
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YTD: sales pace increases; median price remain steady. Home sales soared in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during August 2012 --- showing a total of 92 home sales -- the best August seen since at least 2009. This strong month of sales also contributed to further strength in year-to-date sales figures, which are now
showing a 9.4% improvement over 2011 year-to-date home sales. Despite a 9% decline in median sales price based on August sales data, the year-to-date median sales price increased 0.9% to $175,000. The length of time it takes to market and sell a home (average = 222 days) continues to rise.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County September 9, 2012
# Home Sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
August 77 62 79 92 16.46%
Year-To-Date 531 532 522 571 9.39%
Median Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
August $190,000 $174,450 $200,000 $181,250 -9.38%
Year-To-Date $189,000 $181,750 $173,500 $175,000 0.86%
Average Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
August $210,042 $217,941 $201,725 $205,102 1.67%
Year-To-Date $219,333 $212,279 $200,586 $197,637 -1.47%
Average Days on Market 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
August 158 207 178 229 28.65%
Year-To-Date 187 193 209 222 6.22%
HOME SALES REPORT
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices recovering more quickly in the County. This relatively new data table breaks out overall sales trends between properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Don’t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD
changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+5.67%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-3.67%) in the same metric. The pace of sales, however, is up in both localities (+12% in the City, +8% in the County).
# Home Sales 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
August 21 28 33.33% 58 64 10.34%
Year-To-Date 181 203 12.15% 341 368 7.92%
Median Sales Price 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
August $189,000 $155,700 -17.62% $207,500 $202,375 -2.47%
Year-To-Date $166,000 $159,900 -3.67% $179,800 $190,000 5.67%
Average Days on Market 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
August 197 201 2.03% 172 242 40.70%
Year-To-Date 220 231 5.00% 203 217 6.90%
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREACity of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
August shows remarkably strong sales performance. Based on August sales data from the past several years, it would have seemed asburd to predict 90+ home sales during August 2012 --- but that is exactly what we what happened in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This strong month of sales sets us up to see a sizable
gain in the overall pace of sales for the year, especially if buyer activity continues to remain stronng during the final four months of the year. We are likely to see another decline in sales during September, but perhaps it will not be too significant based on last year’s August-September trendline.
37
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75
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95
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71
62
84
69
45
5349
83
71
117
52
62
55
49
58
64
4038
61
78
68
81
7779 79
5658
79
39
46
66
7377
84
9492
0
25
50
75
100
125
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sing
le F
amily
, Tow
nhom
e &
Con
do S
ales
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 2009
2010
2011
2012
August 201292 Home Sales
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
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Strong contract figures continue in August. Contract figures have steadily increased over the past several years for August --- from 60 to 86 to 100 last month. This has added to the already strong pace of contracts in 2012 to mark a 10% increase in the
annualized pace of contracts. As I have noted before, all of these contracts do not result in closings --- but the strong increase in contracts has certainly been a central contributor to the overall increase in sales pace seen thus far in 2012.
85
52
78
55
45
59
48
95
121
84
54
74
60
74
51
60
40
62
69
75
104
88
104
84 86
67
84
76
5659
80
87
9693
102
90
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aug-
09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec-
09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec-
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Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
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-11
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-11
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Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr-
12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug-
12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties
825 contracts 897 contracts 990 contracts
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
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August helps 2012 surge even further ahead. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last year’s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year is off to a good start with stronger year-to-date sales (571) as compared to
2011 (522) during the same time period. Looking at 2011 and 2012 side by side you will note that March, May, July and Augusthave shown the biggest gains this yer as compared to last year.
45 40 39
98 78 85
147 139 151
230 217 224
301 285 301
418366 385
470443
479
532 522571
587 601636 657694
715758
794
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
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900
2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Inventory levels keep on dropping. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With contracts on the rise (see page 6) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly moving
towards a more balanced market. It has actually been quite a rapid improvement over the past two years --- with a 19% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 29% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off through the Fall months.
997 981
927
846
787 778807
832865 870 872 882 877
846810
748
672 671 665708
733 751721 727
706
0
200
400
600
800
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1200
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
-19%
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Home prices steadying. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in home sales (2005-2010) the
pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase. With stronger YTD sales in 2012 (+9.4%) we will likely see further improvement in the pace of home sales this year, and it seems quite possible that home values (as measured by median price) will level off this year, as they have increased slightly so far this year.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
791
571$116
,000
$122
,900
$122
,588
$127
,700 $1
49,0
00 $169
,900
$192
,983
$195
,100
$195
,500
$186
,000
$180
,000
$174
,900
$175
,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
0
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800
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1,200
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1,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes
+14%
+11%-14%
-13%
-25%
+15%
+8%
+29%
+6%-0.3% +4%
+17%
+14%
+14%
+1% +0.2%
-13%
-5%
-7%
-3%
+4%
-3%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility
of evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. After steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales over the past 13 months, we are now nearing the highest annual rate of sales that we have seen anytime in the past three years. Median sales prices have also been quite stable for the past nine months.
784
775
775 81
7
817
825
825
817 84
9
845 87
6
833
818
802
789
763
758
753
738
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745
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706 731
748 772
779
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794
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801
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843
$189
,000
$189
,950
$189
,250
$187
,225
$186
,000
$186
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$184
,000
$183
,000
$183
,950
$181
,700
$178
,750
$178
,500
$179
,900
$180
,000
$180
,000
$180
,000
$179
,800
$175
,575
$175
,825
$174
,250
$175
,000
$175
,650
$176
,650
$175
,800
$175
,000
$174
,900
$174
,900
$174
,900
$173
,000
$175
,000
$175
,950
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
Annualized Home Sales
Annualized Median Sales Prices
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
Growth!
Stability!
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home
market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales. Single family homes are performing well again in 2012, and median prices are currently showing an increase from $185,500 (last year) to $195,500 for the first eight months of 2012.
674
868 851880
1,024 1,025
909
798
654
563 555
622
437
$122
,850
$133
,239
$136
,000
$147
,000 $1
70,0
00
$210
,000
$226
,800
$223
,575
$215
,000
$204
,500
$199
,600
$185
,500
$195
,000
-$25,000
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes
+16%
n/a-11%
-12%
-18%
+3%-2%
+29%
+9%+2%
+8%
+16%
+24%
+8%
-1%-4%
-14%
-5%
-1%
-2%
+12%
-7%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Townhouse sales comparatively sluggish. If the single family home market is stabilizing, it is at least partially at the expense of the townhouse market. The final count of 169 townhouse sales in 2011 marked a 17% year-over-year decline in townhouse sales --- from an extraordinary peak of 644 sales in 2005. Townhome
sales thus far in 2012 have started to pick up pace in the past few months, with 134 year-to-date closings. Median sales prices, however, are continuing to decline this year -- though at a slower pace of decline. After a 7% decline in price from 2010 to 2011, the price decline between last year and this year has only been 4%.
155
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444
483
644
529
450
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203
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134
$89,
000
$94,
600
$103
,100
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,200 $1
18,5
00 $134
,950
$160
,850
$163
,800
$167
,250
$161
,875
$154
,500
$144
,000
$138
,800
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsDuplexes, Townhomes & Condos
+9%
+33%-18%
-15%
-37%+47%
+49%
+31%
+6%
+9%+5%
+10%
+14%
+19%
+2% +2%
-11%
-3%
-20%
-5%
-17%
-7%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Foreclosures up slightly from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars
show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up in blue when they are listed as REO properties. The foreclosure rate has increased somewhat in 2012, as there were 3.5 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and only 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures thus far in 2012.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
791
571
5691 63 75 70 86 93 97 118
177
270223
169
0
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400
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee SalesHome Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
3.4X
3.5X
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two
years. You’ll note that the sale of homes under $200,000 has increased for the past year, as has the pace of sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.
41 41 4038 38 38
3738 38 37
3637 37
39 39 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 4142 43
17 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 15 1514 15
16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20
6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6
4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 20
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
Post-Tax-Credit Decline Recovery?
Recovery?
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 10 months ago there were 433 such properties for sale, and today there are
only 357 for sale -- this marks an 18% decline in inventory. While we should expect that inventory levels will increase through the summer market, the overall declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.
463478
448426
414 416
443 447457 452 451 454 451 444
433
399
339 343328
350 353 360 353370
357
317296
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259
218208 208 216
230 232 232 236 229 221203
189 180 185 194206 214 222
209 201 199
117 111 10589 85 89 86 88 97 105 103 106 112
101 9989 81 77 79 77
87 91 84 77 75100 96 91
72 70 65 7081 81 81 86 86 85 80 75 71 72 66 64
75 79 78 75 79 75
0
50
100
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
-18%
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 41 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the
same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in the under $200K market.
11 12 11 11 11 1112 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11
108 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8
18 18 1716
13 13 13 1415 15
17 1614
1312 11
10 10 11 11 12 1211 10 10
20 19 1917
1516 16 16
1718
1718 18
17 1716
14 13 14 1315
17 16
14 13
27
27 27
2120
1819
25 26 25
29
26 2625
23 24
2625
23
28
3331
38
45
41
0
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10
15
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This new graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an
average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows an improvement to 95.2% of the asking price for home sales during the first seven months of 2012.
829
1,0711,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758 791
571
97.4%97.7% 97.8%
98.1%
99.1% 99.1% 98.9%
98.0%
96.9%96.2%
95.7%
94.7%95.2%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
List Price to Sales Price Ratiowithin the context of Home Sales Pace
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over
the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.
$76
$73
$73
$73 $7
6$7
7$7
4 $78
$79
$80 $8
2 $84
$83 $8
6$8
7 $92
$90 $9
6 $99
$105
$105
$113 $1
19 $123 $1
26 $130
$131
$125 $1
29$1
28$1
27$1
26$1
25$1
26$1
21$1
15$1
16 $120
$117
$116
$107
$120
$108
$115
$101 $1
03$1
03$1
02$1
00 $106
$101
$0.00
$25.00
$50.00
$75.00
$100.00
$125.00
$150.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices edge up under 1500 SF. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of
larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($96/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($113/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
$138$140
$133
$126$123
$111$113
$123 $123
$116 $117
$107$103
$103
$122$119
$115
$105
$112
$96 $96
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing? While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized in 2011. In 2009, there were 58 lot sales of less than an acre, in
2010 that increased to 63 sales, and 2011 finished out with 60 sales. The median sales price of these lots under one acre may also be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.
165
201
261247
408
304
111
8574
58 63 60
33
$26,
000
$30,
500
$32,
208
$36,
900
$42,
000
$54,
500
$99,
900
$76,
500
$58,
300
$59,
900
$55,
000
$54,
500
$54,
900
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Pricesless than 1 acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
Stability?
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 60 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 277 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($59,900) is only slightly higher than the 2012 YTD median sales price of $54,900. Given last
year’s 60 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take roughly 4.5 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, more than half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.
$0 - $40k24 listings
9%
$40k - $60k120 listings
43%$60k - $80k78 listings
28%
$80k - $100k37 listings
13%
$100k +18 listings
6%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventoryless than 1 acre
277 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $59,900
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Larger lot sales slow again (slightly) in 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2009 and 2010. During all of 2010, only 27 such land sales were recorded in the HRAR MLS, but there were a total of 49 such sales during 2011. This increase in
the pace of sales is very likely causing the increase in median price per acre that was experienced between 2010 and 2011. This year, however we are seeing a slightly slower pace (30) of sales, and the median price per acre has fallen back down to $13,934.
58
42
87
76
107
168
7783
53
42
27
49
30
$8,2
34
$8,2
45
$8,3
33 $9,5
35
$12,
003
$17,
713
$15,
000
$24,
184
$21,
250
$15,
424
$14,
552 $1
6,35
5
$13,
934
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre1 acre or more
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 49 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 265 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 265 parcels
for sale is currently $22,756 per acre. Given last year’s 49 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take over five years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
$0 - $10k47 listings
18%
$10k - $20k75 listings
28%
$20k - $30k35 listings
13%
$30k - $40k31 listings
12%
$40k - $50k18 listings
7%
$50k - $100k31 listings
12%
$100k +28 listings
11%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory1 acre or more
265 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $22,756 / Acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
New home sales slow, but prices steady. New home builders finally saw an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 -- after a steady decline since 2005. This small increase (42 to 45), however, still leaves plenty of room for improvement -- and thus far in 2012, it is unclear whether we will see another increase in new home
sales, as there have only been 33 such sales so far this year. It is interesting to note that the median price per square foot is showing signs of steadying, with only a very small decline between 2010 and 2011 (and 2012). As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes may continue to increase.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
89
138 137
121
140
186
158
139
109
84
4145
33
$87 $9
4 $99 $1
05 $114
$133
$150
$146
$144
$137
$130
$129
$129
0
50
100
150
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (31%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those
that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 60% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
0 - 3 months, 260, 31%
3 - 6 months, 246, 29%
6 - 9 months, 121, 14%
9 - 12 months, 78, 9%
1 - 2 years, 107, 13%
> 2 years, 31, 4%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Average Days On Market: 217
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
0 - 3 months, 227, 32%
3 - 6 months, 194, 27%
6 - 9 months, 88, 12%
9 - 12 months, 41, 6%
1 - 2 years, 103, 15%
> 2 years, 53, 8%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Active Listings
Average Days On Market: 253
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, only 63% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the
market, while only 50% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.
32%
28%
27%
33%
31%
18%
22%
30%
30%
29%
18%
15%
14%
14%
14%
9%
13%
11%
8%
9%
18%
15%
14%
12%
13%
5%
7%
5%
3%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$400k and up
$300k - $400k
$200k - $300k
Under $200k
All Homes
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeProperties Sold in the Past 12 Months
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
Avg = 217
Avg = 199
Avg = 240
Avg = 259
Avg = 241
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Mortgage rates up; unemployment levels up. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, though the current average rate of 3.59% increases slightly from last
month. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which showed an exciting low of 5.3% in April 2012, but has since climbed back up to 6.4%.
5.19
%
5.06
%
4.95
%
4.88
%
4.93
%
5.03
%
4.99
%
4.97
%
5.10
%
4.89
%
4.74
%
4.56
%
4.43
%
4.35
%
4.23
%
4.30
% 4.71
%
4.76
%
4.95
%
4.86
%
4.78
%
4.60
%
4.51
%
4.55
%
4.22
%
4.01
%
4.10
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.99
%
3.88
%
3.75
%
3.66
%
3.49
%
3.59
%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest RateSource: Freddie Mac
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
6.8%
6.5%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
6.4%
6.1% 6.2%
5.4%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
5.7%
5.6%
6.0%
5.8%
5.3%
5.9%
6.3% 6.4%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted
September 9, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.
Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.
In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .
Central Shenandoah Valley Property Searchhttp://www.ScottPRogers.com
Monthly Real Estate Market Reportshttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com
Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentaryhttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com
New Home Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com
Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com
Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockinghamhttp://www.HarrisonburgREO.com
Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com
Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com
Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com
Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
For more information, or with questions, contact:
SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker540-578-0102 (mobile)[email protected]
Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker