Hotel Industry OverviewORLA Convention:
Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout
Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate
Welcome!
Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate
linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan Allie_STR
71%of U.S. rooms participate with STR
STR provides monthly, weekly and daily reports to more than
worldwide hotels, which represent
rooms.
47,000
6.1 million
Raw Data Collected:Total Rooms Available (Supply)
Total Rooms Sold (Demand)
Total Room Revenue (Revenue)
KPIs(Key Performance Indicators)Occ(Occupancy)
ADR(Average Daily Rate)
RevPAR(Revenue per Available Room)
What We Do
Presentation is available for download.
To view this presentation, go to the “Data” drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com and click “Data Presentations”.
AgendaOctober 14, 2013
• Total U.S. Overview
• State of Oregon
• Deeper Dive Into Oregon
• Pipeline
• Future Performance
• Q&A
Total U.S. Review
Demand Growth Back to Normal. RevPAR Driven by ADR.
% Change
Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7% Demand* 1.1 bn 2.4%Occupancy 62.0% 1.7% ADR* $109 4.0% RevPAR* $68 5.8% Room Revenue* $121 bn 6.6%
Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicators12 MMA through August 2013* All Time High
July 2013: Highest Monthly Room Revenue
EVER($12.2 Billion)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013-8
-4
0
4
8 Supply Demand
.7%
Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for 2013
-7.1%
-0.9%
- 4.7%
Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
7.7%
2.3%
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 20112012-10
-5
0
5
Demand ADR
7.7%
2.3%
ADR Growth Stalls. Smooth Sailing From Here?
-4.5%
7.5%6.8%
-8.9%
4.0%
Total U.S. – ADR & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 201120122013-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S. – RevPAR % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
65 Months 36 Mo.112 Months
Inflation Adjusted ADRs Still Not Reached – Yet
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
2014F
Nominal ADR2000 / 2008 Grown by CPI
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
Total U.S. – ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2014F2000 – 2012 CPI from bls.gov, 2013– 2014 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
$85
$101
$104
$85
$107 $116
$107
$1192008 ADR Grown By CPI
$111
State of Oregon
High Growth, Surpassing Peak
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual OCCYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
3.1%
-0.5
-1.8%
3.1%
4.6%
2.7%
2.7%72.3%
62.3%
61.5%
58.8%
63.5%
66.9%
63.4%
California At Least $20 Higher Than Neighbors
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual ADRYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
1.9%
4.8%
4.9%
5.7%
$87.04
$93.18
$104.99
$96.88
$99.08
$109.66
$130.67
Oregon Close To Double Digit RevPAR Growth
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual RevPARYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
7.1%
3.2%
1.4%
5%
9.6%
7.6%
8.6%$94.42
$73.35
$62.79
$61.54
$61.78
$57.27
$54.26
Deeper Dive Into Oregon
Portland Market
Portland Market
Hotels 263Rooms 25,924Sample 89%
Supply 6.3m 0.0%Demand 4.5m* 3.9%Occupancy 72% 4.0%ADR $107* 6.7%RevPAR $77* 11.0%Room Revenue $482m* 10.9%
Portland Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high
Supply Not An Issue, Strong Demand Growth Continues
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
6.4
-2.3
4.0
-4.4
6.3
-9.8
9.2
3.6 %
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Portland Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013
Year After Year of (almost) Continuous Growth
OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change
6.9
-1.9
4.9 5.2 4.5
9.9
4.4 5.6
10.3
4.0
6.7
11.0
2010201120122013
Portland Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR %ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013
Weekday= Sunday-Thursday
Weekend= Friday & Saturday
Weekday OCC: Chart Topping Rooms Sold
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40
50
60
70
80
52.7
83%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
Weekday ADR: Highest August Rate On Record
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
$96.07
$116.65
2007 2010 2011 20122013
+$15.80
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
+$6.87
Weekend OCC: August Selling 9 Out Of 10 Rooms
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40
50
60
70
80
90
100
52.8
93.6%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
Weekend ADR: Strong Rate Growth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec75
85
95
105
115
$87.29
$117.44 2007 2010 20112012 2013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
+$18.88
+$6.81
Portland Submarkets
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West:Hotels: 35 Rooms: 2,975
Lake Oswego/ I-5 South:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,718
Portland Airport/ Vancouver:Hotels: 84 Rooms: 8,315
Portland Downtown:Hotels: 50 Rooms: 7,499
Portland I-84/ I-205 East:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,417
Portland Submarkets: August YTD 2013
Downtown & Beaverton With Strong Performance
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West
Lake Oswego/ I-5
Portland Airport/ Vancouver
Portland Downtown
Portland I-84/ I-205
10.1
6.4
5.7
7.3
3.7
1.8
5.7
3.9
3.6
5.3
OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
Portland Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD August 2013
62%$75
80%$145
70%$88
68%$96
78%$101
9%+ RevPAR Growth Across the Board
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West
Lake Oswego/ I-5
Portland Airport/ Vancouver
Portland Downtown
Portland I-84/ I-205
12.2
12.5
9.8
11.2
9.2
Portland Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
$45.94
$113.68
$61.06
$64.56
$77.54
Oregon Area Market
Oregon Area Market
Hotels 652Rooms 38,973Sample 55%
Supply 9.4m* 0.4%Demand 5.5m* 5.7%Occupancy 57.9% 5.3%ADR $92* 3.1%RevPAR $53* 8.5%Room Revenue $503m* 9.0%
OR Area Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high
Strong KPI= Favorable Supply/Demand
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10.0
-4.0
2.0
8.0
2.4
-0.7
2.2 -0.8
-7.1
5.3
0.5
4.5
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Oregon Area Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013
Positive OCC/ADR Mix Across The Board
OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change
3.0
0.8
3.8
1.0 1.1
2.2
0.2
2.9 3.1
5.3
3.1
8.5
2010201120122013
Oregon Area Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR &ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013
Weekday= Sunday-Thursday
Weekend= Friday & Saturday
Weekday OCC: Still Playing Catch Up From 2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30
40
50
60
70
80
72.2% 2007201020112012
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
Weekday ADR: Breaking Records
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60
70
80
90
100
110
$ 75.84
$ 102.28
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
$9.82
$9.33
Weekend OCC: Finally Surpassing Peak
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30
40
50
60
70
80
90 86.9%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
Weekend ADR: Breaking Records…Again
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60
70
80
90
100
110
120
$77.24
$ 112.33
2007 2010 20112012 2013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
$9.94
$8.64
Bend/Redmond: Hotels: 60 Rooms: 3,983
Oregon West Area:Hotels: 280 Rooms: 16,462
Eugene MSA:Hotels: 71 Rooms: 4,711
Medford/ Grants Pass:Hotels: 89 Rooms: 5,137
Oregon East Area:Hotels: 152 Rooms: 8,680
Oregon Area Submarkets
Oregon Area Submarkets: August YTD 2013
3 of 5 Submarkets Surpassing Peak
Oregon East Area
Eugene MSA, OR
Oregon West Area
Medford/Grants Pass
Bend/ Redmond
1.6
1.1
2.8
4.1
7.7
6.4
6.3
2.8
6.8
10.3
OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
Oregon Area Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
63%
$104
61%
$81
57%
$98
63%
$87
53%$83
Strong RevPAR Growth Across the Board
Oregon Area Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
Oregon East Area
Eugene MSA, OR
Oregon West Area
Medford/Grants Pass
Bend/ Redmond
8.1
7.5
5.7
11.2
18.8$66
$49
$56
$55
$44
PipelineIn Construction: Ground has been broken
Final Planning: Construction will begin within 12 months
Planning: Construction will begin within 13-24 months
Pre-Planning: Construction will begin in more than 24 months
Total U.S. – Rooms in Active Pipeline%Change From Last Year
Phase August 2013 August 2012 Difference % Change
In Construction 78,739 66,071 12,668 19.2%
Final Planning 124,591 106,281 18,310 17.2%
Planning 126,337 132,259 -5,922 -4.5%
Active Pipeline 329,667 304,611 25,056 8.2%
Rooms in the Active Pipeline Accelerating
Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
4,690.07,633.0
29,480.0
21,644.0
3,311.01,091.0
10,890.0
Total U.S. – Rooms Under Construction‘000s Rooms, by Scale, August 2013
Portland Market Pipeline Snapshot
Oregon Area Market Pipeline Snapshot
Forecasts
Total U.S. Forecasts (%Change vs. Prior Year)2013 - 2014
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
Supply 0.8% 1.1%
Demand 2.2% 2.4%
Occupancy 1.4% 1.3%
ADR 4.2% 4.6%
RevPAR 5.7% 6.0%
Total U.S.: ADR to Drive RevPAR for the Next 2 Years
Portland Market-STRA Custom Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
%Chg. %Chg.
Occupancy 70% 4.1 70% 0.5%
ADR $107 7.0% $114 6.8%
RevPAR $75 11.4% $80 7.3%
Oregon Area Market-STRA Custom Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
%Chg. %Chg.
Occupancy 56% 5.2% 57% 0.5%
ADR $91 3.0% $94 3.3%
RevPAR $50 8.4% $53 5.5%
5 Things to Know
1. Total U.S.- Positive Demand, Rate Driven Recovery
2. Oregon- Strong Performance Across the Board
3. Portland- Setting KPI Highs
4. Oregon Area- Demand Recovering, Rate Driven
Recovery
5. Outlook- Steady As She Goes
Allison [email protected]
615-824-8664 x3420