Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina:A quantitative portrait of the healthcare labor market
in the Tarheel State
AndrewBerger-Gross,SeniorEconomistNCDepartmentofCommerce,Labor&EconomicAnalysisDivision(LEAD)
October13,2019
Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina:A quantitative portrait of the healthcare labor market in the Tarheel State
Rapidgrowthinthehealthcaresectorhascreatedjobopportunitiesforworkersinallregionsandatalleducationlevels…
…butwefacechallenges tosupplyingatrainedworkforce tofillthesejobs.
2
Background
3HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
+ 150%
+ 610%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 [2017]
1997:Children'sHealthInsuranceProgram
Healthcare demand drivers:Aging population and expanded access
Source:U.S.CensusBureau;IPUMS-USA
Age65+
Totalpopulation
1956:Dependents'Medical
CareAct
1965:Medicare&Medicaid
2003:MedicarePartD
2010:AffordableCareAct
4HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Engine of job growth:Healthcare has far outpaced rest of labor market
+ 122%
+ 1204%
-35%
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
HealthCareandSocialAssistance
Total(alljobs)
Manufacturing
Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis.Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
Recessions
5HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
3.3
9.4
1.7
1.2
2.6
1.1
1.9
3.6
1.2
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Help (always) wanted:Health workers are “in-demand” in good times and bad
Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer.Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
HealthcarePractitionersandTechnicalOccupations
Total(alljobs/workers)
#ofjobseekersperjobopening
HealthcareSupportOccupations
6HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
+ 9%
-5%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Rural retreat:Non-metro counties have fallen behind
Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis(totalwage&salaryemployment).Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
Non-metro:Alljobs
Metro:Alljobs
7HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
+ 25%
+ 7%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Rural retreat:Non-metro counties have fallen behind
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(UI-coveredemployment).Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
Non-metro:HealthCareandSocialAssistance
Metro:HealthCareandSocialAssistance
8
Non-metro:Alljobs
Metro:Alljobs
HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Workforce challenges
9HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Too tight:Healthcare ranks among the tightest job markets
Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:2015-2017annualaverage.
#ofjobseekersperjobopening,byselectedCareerCluster2.9
1.81.6
1.31.2
Alljobs InformationTechnology Finance HealthScience Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics
10HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Tight everywhere:Healthcare offers opportunity in rural and urban areas
Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:2015-2017annualaverage.
#ofjobseekersperjobopeninginHealthScience,byregion
11HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Raleigh
Charlotte
2.0
1.2
1.6
1.1
1.41.5
1.81.6
Tight for all types:Healthcare offers opportunity at every education level
Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:2015-2017annualaverage.
#ofjobseekersperjobopeninginHealthScience,byeducationlevel2.9
2.1
1.7
0.8 0.9
Alljobs,alleducationlevels 1)Highschooldiplomaorbelow
2)Post-secondary,belowBachelor's
3)Bachelor'sdegree 4)AboveBachelor'sdegree
12HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
9,594
760
15,168
5,616
11,523
771
5,580
1,256
3,889
7,063
2,254516
HealthScience InformationTechnology HealthScience Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics
HealthScience Law,PublicSafety,Corrections&Security
Pipeline problems:Relatively few are graduating with health credential
Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:2015-2017annualaverage.
Post-secondary,belowBachelor’s Bachelor’sdegree AboveBachelor’sdegree
Laborneededtoeliminatemismatch
Completers ofpublicly-funded
higheredprograms
13HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Hard to attract teachers:Post-secondary instructors earn less than practitioners
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(OccupationalEmploymentStatistics):2018data
Medianannualwage
$60,790$43,650
$196,670
$105,520
$65,550
$101,540
$64,520
HealthcarePractitionersand
TechnicalOccupations
Education,Training,andLibraryOccupations
PhysiciansandSurgeons,AllOther
HealthSpecialtiesTeachers,
Postsecondary
BiologicalScienceTeachers,
Postsecondary
NursePractitioners NursingInstructorsandTeachers,Postsecondary
14HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
4.9
3.7 3.6
2.92.5
1.8
0.80.4
Transportationandwarehousing
Agriculture,forestry,fishingandhunting
Healthcareandsocialassistance
Manufacturing Accommodationandfoodservices
Construction Professional,scientific,and
technicalservices
Financeandinsurance
A rough job:Healthcare has among highest rates of workplace injury
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics:2017data.TopreasonsforinjuryarefromU.S.-leveldata.
#recordablecasesofinjury/illnessper100workers(FTE),byselectedsector
Disproportionatelyhighratesof:• Violence• Overexertion• Falls,slips,trips
15HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
The sheepskin ceiling:Top-paying jobs segregated by degree, race, and sex
Source:U.S.CensusBureau(AmericanCommunitySurvey):2013-2017average.
Top10%ofhealthcareworkers
earn>$100,000peryear
Bottom90%ofhealthcareworkers
16HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
13%
%thathaveadvanceddegrees(aboveBA)
%thatareBlack/African-American
%thatarefemale
25%
85%
81%
10%
46%
Doctors don’t live forever:Increasing numbers are approaching retirement age
Source:NorthCarolinaHealthProfessionsDataSystem,UNC-ChapelHill
7%
12%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%ofphysiciansage65+
17HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Peering into thecrystal ball
18HealthcarejobsinNorthCarolina
More jobs on the way:Healthcare is projected to grow rapidly in coming years
Source:LEADEmploymentProjections
+ 8%
+ 15%
+ 19%
2017 2026[projected]
HealthcarePractitionersandTechnicalOccupations
HealthcareSupportOccupations
Total(alloccupations)
19HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Robots need not apply:Healthcare jobs have much lower risk of automation
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(OccupationalEmploymentStatistics),withcomputerizationriskestimatedbyFrey,CarlBenedikt,andMichaelA.Osborne."Thefutureofemployment:Howsusceptiblearejobstocomputerisation?."Technologicalforecastingandsocialchange114(2017):254-280.
6%
51%
Healthcareoccupations Otheroccupations
%ofjobsathighriskofcomputerization(perFrey/Osborne)
20HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
A bend in the age curve:Population will get older… but for how long?
Source:2010-2036populationestimates/projectionsfromNCOfficeofStateManagementandBudget.Fittedcurverepresentsahypotheticalscenario.
13%
21%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
%ofpopulationage65+
Officialestimate/projection
Fittedcurve(hypothetical)
21HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Conclusion
22HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina
Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina
Jobopportunities:• Rapidjobgrowthinpastdecades(andforeseeablefuture)• Strongdemandforworkersinallregionsandeducationlevels
Workforcechallenges:• Relativelyfewhealthcarestudents/traineesinthe“pipeline”• Hardtoattract/retainworkers(jobconditions,segregation,aging)
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Featured LEAD data sources:LaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:jobseekers,jobopenings,labormarkettightnesshttps://nccareers.org/s-d/
Employmentdata byindustry,occupation,andregion,estimatedinpartnershipwiththeU.S.BureauofLaborStatisticshttps://d4.nccommerce.com/
Employmentprojectionsbyindustry,occupation,andregion,developedinpartnershipwiththeU.S.EmploymentandTrainingAdministrationhttps://nccareers.org/employmentprojections/industry_employment_projections.html
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Thankyou!AndrewBerger-GrossSeniorEconomist
www.nccommerce.com/lead
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