Haredi Invasion
Can Israel survive its
biggest challenge yet?
Jewish Religiosity Spectrum in Israel
Religiosity in this context is simply defined as the average proportion of time devoted to religious-specific activities
HarediUltra-
Orthodox
Dati Le’umiModern
Orthodox
MasoratiTraditional
HiloniSecular
more religious
less religious
Jewish Religiosity in Israel
HarediUltra-
Orthodox
Dati Le’umiModern
Orthodox
MasoratiTraditional
HiloniSecular
Sephardim
Ashkenazim Ashkenazim
Haredi Data
• Reliable data on Haredi trends are difficult to obtain:• Due to its inherent loose definition (floating signifier)
• Lack of participation in surveys
• 50% refusal rate (CBS study)
• Moreover, data is biased towards more moderate haredim
• For example, 35% of Haredi men completed military service
• This leads to an overreliance on anecdotes and poor categorisation of datasets.
"The plural of anecdote is not data." (R. Brinner)
Haredi Data
Haredi
anecdotes
HarediUltra-
Orthodox
Dati Le’umiModern
Orthodox
MasoratiTraditional
HiloniSecular
Haredi Data
Haredi data
categorisation
HarediUltra-
Orthodox
Dati Le’umiModern
Orthodox
MasoratiTraditional
HiloniSecular
Key Economic & Social Issues
• Low participation in workforce (particularly for men)
• Lack of marketable education
• High birth rate (7-9 per woman)
• In Haredi cities, more than half are under the age of 15
• Large informal economic activity
• Exemption from military service
• Welfare dependency
As the proportion of Haredim grow, can Israel remain a modern developed economy under these conditions?
Haredi Birth-rate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Female-core Female-moderate
Difference in Growth Rates between Arabs and Jews
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
Comparison with Haredim outside of Israel
• A common misperception is that Haredim in other countries are far better integrated.
• Some key characteristics are, however, very similar:• Welfare dependency
• High birth rate
• Lack of marketable education
• Informal economy
Haredi leadership
• The survival of the Haredi society is fundamentally dependant on its socioeconomic characteristics.
• Financial dependence on the internal system acts as a mechanism to prevent Haredim from defecting.
• Consequently, social punishments are very powerful.
• Lack of formal education, early marriage and high birth-rate acts as lock-in mechanisms.
• The leadership are, therefore, resistant to any change - as it is effectively a negotiation on the death of haredism
Summary & Policy Perspectives
• Acknowledging the fundamental threats to Haredi survival, and that these cannot be separated its economics characteristics.
• Welfare reform may also impact Haredi behaviour in different way.
• Should government support be available to those who leave the Haredi community?