Green River Water Rights Distribution Model (MODSIM)
Update
ByDivision of Water Rights
8-27-12
Green River Water Rights Distribution Model (MODSIM)Simulates the daily distribution of flows in the Green River by allocating available supply to competing demands based on water rights priorities.
• The model has been calibrated to the hydrologic conditions of the study period of 1970 to 2005 using observed gaged flows at Green and Jensen as a reference.
Recap of Improvements and Accomplishments Implemented to the model.
A three day lag routine was implemented in the model which improves the model’s statistical fit and mass balance of observed flows versus predicted flows
Correlation Coefficient (R2) of 97.8% at Green Gage and 99.2% at Jensen gage
Current (2010) estimated demands or depletions along the main stem of the Green River and White River (Utes Tribal rights) used for the calibration process were estimated at about 68,823.14 AF per season.
• The network structure was revised by grouping water rights by priority dates serving each irrigation demand node.
• Water rights in each reach were grouped in three main groups based on priority.• The first group includes water rights with priority
prior to 1922. • The second group includes water rights with
priorities between 1922 and 1957.• The third group includes water rights with
priorities of 1958 to present.
• All links in the network delivering water to a demand node were constrained not only by volume (max seasonal capacity) but also by daily flow (cfs) limitations based on the sum of the water rights contained in the link.
• Two scenarios were ran: Current Scenario and Full Scenario. • The Current Scenario is the baseline scenario that
simulates existing conditions in the river representing water supplies, demands, and developed water rights along the main stem of the Green River.
• The Full Scenario simulates the impact of full development of approved rights on the system up to Utah’s portion of the Colorado River Compact.
UTAH WATER RIGHTS DIVERSION AND DEPLETION SUMMARY (Green River Water Rights Distribution Model)
Demand by Reach Current Depletion (AF) Potential Depletion (AF)
Reach 1
Flaming Gorge to Yampa 3,012.52 4,735.14
Reach 2
Yampa to White River* 36,782.61 144,604.74
Reach 3
White River to Colorado 29,028.01 155,086.50
TOTAL 68,823.14 304,426.38*includes all tribal current and/or potential depletion
UTAH WATER RIGHTS DIVERSION AND DEPLETION SUMMARY
Updated: 07/9/2012
Current Irrigated or Inundated Acres
Current Diversion
Sole Supply (Irrigation Acres)
Diversion Limit Flow
Current Depletion
Potential Depletion
(af)
Node_Name Acres AF Acres AF CFS AF AF
Demand_Irr_AboveYampa 203.00 609.00 644.50 1,933.51 22.19 424.07 1,346.37
Ponds_Demand_AboveYampa 283.00 849.00 700.00 2,100.00 27.00 608.45 1,505.00
Demand_YampaToJensen 2,614.27 10,437.43 6,922.24 26,376.90 231.61 7,002.64 18,634.15
Demand_JensenToDuchesne 7,084.89 33,311.58 17,915.97 107,234.76 424.82 25,779.97 67,804.38
Demand_DuchesneToSandWash 970.00 2,370.00 10,555.00 45,680.00 155.79 1,488.00 44,798.00
Demand_SandWashToGreenGage 7,535.14 45,555.54 18,504.52 111,728.62 350.49 23,308.04 49,417.53
GreenRGageToColo 1,223.94 7,831.65 1,782.61 13,609.99 47.55 4,231.97 7,270.97
Non-Consumptive_belowPrice 620.00
PotentialUteGreen & Tributaries* 5,085.00 20,340.00 72.64 0.00 14,513.61
Ute Municipal 4,000.00 10,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00
PotentialUteWhite 12,833.00 51,332.00 183.33 0.00 36,627.95
Demand_fromTributariesWhite** 359.00 1,436.00 5.13 0.00 1,024.66
CO_BrownsPark 660.00 1,980.00 660.00 1,980.00 1,980.00 1,883.77
TOTAL 20,574.25 106,944.20 75,961.84 393,751.78 2,140.54 68,823.14 250,826.38
PROPOSED NPP BELOW GREEN RIVER GAGE 53,600.00 74.05 0.00 53,600.00
GRAND TOTAL 20,574.25 106,944.20 75,961.84 447,351.78 2,214.60 68,823.14 304,426.38
*Potential_UteGreen and Tributaries includes potential diversion from Sweet Water and Bitter Creek tributaries. **Node "Demand_fromTributariesWhite" is the potential tribal demands from Hill Creek and Willow creek
Potential Use
Total Allocation 1,369,000 acft
Current Use 1,000,000 acft
Remaining Use 369,000 acft
Navajo Reserved Right 81,500 acft
Maximum Potential 287,500 acft
Modeled Potential 304,000 acft
Model Scenarios and Output Results
• The model generally under predicts flows at the Green River by an average of 70,159 AF a year (less than 2% of the average yearly flows over the 36 years of study)
• The model under predicted the flows at Jensen by an average of 16,465 AF per year (0.54% of the observed yearly average).
• During peak flow periods the model tends to over predict the flows.
• Base flows are slightly under-predicted.
Preliminary analysis of the output from the Current Scenario shows that:
• The MODSIM model predicts a total of 287 days with flows below 1300 cfs at the Green Gage versus 357 observed days.
• A total of 246 days were observed to fall below 1300 cfs during the irrigation season (Apr-Oct) while 285 days were predicted by the model.
• There were 110 days of observed flows below 1300 cfs during the non-irrigation (Nov-Mar) season and only 2 days were predicted
• The discrepancy of # days during the non-irrigation season likely due to issues encountered by low water temperature during winter days, possibly ice formation on the observation wells causing the flows to show large variation from one day to the next.
Green River Gage Summary of Predicted MODSIM Results - AF Amount on Days Below 1300 CFS ( 7-10-12)
Current Scenario (69k depletion) Full Potential (304k depletion)
Year #days
AF Amount needed to make up
minimum flow
Minimum Flow (cfs)
Average flow(cfs)
#days
AF Amount needed to make up
minimum flow
Minimum Flow (cfs)
Average flow(cfs)
1972 2 142 1233 1263 5 2915 917 1005
1974 0 0 0 0 2 421 1102 1193
1977 1 4 1297 1297 10 3735 894 1111
1978 0 0 0 0 3 494 1204 1216
1980 0 0 0 0 5 1756 998 1122
1981 0 0 0 0 13 4834 748 1112
1987 0 0 0 0 1 72 1263 1263
1988 10 487 1256 1275 31 16306 727 1034
1989 21 6149 1051 1152 62 44159 558 940
1990 37 13013 1033 1122 68 61150 454 846
1992 0 0 0 0 30 7666 1041 1170
1994 0 0 0 0 63 19385 1010 1144
2000 0 0 0 0 40 20055 871 1047
2001 68 14483 1052 1192 97 91348 474 825
2002 92 68629 735 923 116 155645 273 623
2003 50 21377 879 1084 111 92121 349 881
2004 6 310 1250 1273 56 32801 723 1004
Total 287 124,594 713 554,863
Average: 3,500 Average 15,500
Columns key: #days: is the number of days that the flows on the reach flows below 1300 cfs AF Amount needed to make up minimum flow on Reach: is the total sum of the acre-feet of water needed to reach1300 cfs minimum on the low flow days for the year. Minimum Flow: is the lowest flow reached during the days that flows were below 1300cfs for the year.Average cfs Flow: is the average flow of the low flow days reached during the year.
Output data from the USBR Green River model portion of the CRSS Basin study will be integrated into MODSIM to simulate future development scenarios build-out potentialprobable worst case demands or any other scenario as
deemed necessary by the GRUWAT technical group.
Continue to run and analyze various scenarios as needed.
Continue working with the model documentation to clarify how the model works and to provide the necessary information about the structure of the model and its inputs.
Task in Development
Utah Work Plan
• 2010-2011 , Develop model
• 2010-2012 , Analyze Model Results
• 2012-2014 , Obtain Additional Authority
• 2014-2015 , Implement Legal Protection
No Scenario HydrologyMODSIM Utah
DemandsUpstream fromUtah Demands Purpose Status
1MODSIMCalibration
1970-2005 - Historical UT Current Current Model Calibration Completed
2 Current 1970-2005 - Historical UT Current Current Baseline Completed
3FutureDemands
1970-2005 - Historical UT Future Current Baseline Completed
4Current / NewOperation
1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa
UT Current2010 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"
Analyze Utah’sCurrent demands withNew operational rules
Waiting On Datafrom BOR
5Future / NewOperation
1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa
UT Future 2010 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"
Analyze Utah’s futuredemands with newoperational rules
Waiting On Datafrom BOR
6Future Total /New Operation
1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa
UT Future 2060 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"
Analyze the totalPotential futureconditions fromall States
Waiting On Datafrom BOR