INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Going Green:Carbon reduction through
nature
CaRe-LandsCluster event
June, 25th 2014
INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Will Day
Going Green: Carbon reduction through nature
Will Day
Grandhotel ter Duin June 2014
The Economy
Slide 6
August 20th
New Scientist 2008 from Steffen et al 2004
Northern Hemisphere average surface temperature
Population
Motor vehiclesSpecies extinctions1750
1850 1950
GDP Foreign investment
The great acceleration
With a population of 8.3 billion people by 2030,we’ll need…
35%more food
50%more
energy
40%
more water
Source: OECD; Dan Hammer, Center for Global Development
The Food-Water-Energy Nexus
Food Energy
Water
Land
Scarce resources
Slide 13
Worsening per capita water availability
To meet the increasing demand froma growing population, we will needto produce more food in the next40 years than has been produced inthe previous 8,000 years.
Jason Clay, Senior Vice President WWF
There is less land than you thinkLand area of all countries, in billions of acres
37.1 Total
3.5Arable land
Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
++
Food production is very energy intensive
Food Energy Available
Source: University of Michigan study by Hellar and Keoleian done in 2000
Fossil Energy we put in…
Food Energy we get out!
Household Storage & Preparation
Commercial Food Service
Food Retail
Packaging Material
Processing Industry
Transportation
Agricultural Production
Food Energy Available
Expected growth in biofuel demand
000,000?No 7,200,000,000?
• This interactive visualisation depicts dramatic population changes, based on data released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affiars/Population Division for 1950 – 2010 and a projection for 2100.
Country population: past, present, future
Slide 24
Slide 27 Stern Review
Slide 29
TRUTTrust in institutions to operate in society’s best interest
What can we expect?
• Changing rainfall and weather patterns• Sea level rise• Loss of habitat• Loss of biodiversity• Increasing extreme weather • Migration
What is the impact?
• Growing global demand for food production• Requirement for renewable energy• Shorter supply chains• Africa as the world’s bread basket?• Massive urban growth
• Crops bad, trees good? Need to understand the science
• Cities bad, countryside good? – can’t be competition – Costa Rica
• Land use change on it’s own insufficient - ‘Reducing emissions in the land use sector cannot compensate for a lack of reduction in industrial emissions.’
It’s not as simple as we might think
Who does what best?
Government – Environment Minister, Regulators, Planning authorities, Protected areas
Market – Commercial agriculture, Rural economies. Green growth
NGOs/civil society – lobby, advocate, consume, vote, educate
Technology?
Why Sustainable Development?
• Not ‘sustained…’• Should be ‘common sense’• Joined up – economics, politics, environment, social• Chinese Vice-Minister – the most important
conversation• Helps think beyond short term commercial and political timetables
Politically inconvenient
Imperatives…..
• Decarbonise the global economy – vital and urgent• Recognise the true value of nature and of the services
we derive from it – health, water, food, fibre, fuel• Protect our threatened biodiversity• Appreciate the need for successful rural economies• Make better informed planning decisions• Help legislators and citizens understand why land use, and the longer term, matters• Work together