San Juan, Puerto RicoSeptember 9, 2008
2000
2200
1600
1800
2000 Automobile Use
1200
1400
950=
100)
Motor vehicle fleet
600
800
1000
Inde
x (1
Urban population
200
400
600Total population
01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
900
USA
700
800
e
USA
Japan
500
600
r 1000 pe
ople
EU
Japan
300
400
Vehicles pe
100
200
ChinaHong Kong
Singapore
Indonesia
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Source: World Development Indicators (2008)
IndiaChina
3,500
2,500
3,000
illion)
USA (Annual growth of 1‐3%)
2,000
,
s travelle
d (bi
1,000
1,500
al veh
ile‐kms
Japan
500
Tot
France
China (Annual growth of 6‐10%)
MexicoUK Canada
0
Source: World Development Indicators and Transport Ministries (2008)
France
Consequences of Consequences of Motorization:Urban Sprawl
L t i▪ Longer trips▪ Decreasing trips by foot, bicycle and public transportation
C tiCongestion▪ In 2005, congestion (based on wasted time and fuel) cost about $78 2 billion in the US compared $78.2 billion in the US, compared to $73.1 billion in 2004
▪ Problem is more acute in developing countriesp g
1.4
1.6
1
1.2
ex
0.8
1
vel Tim
e Inde
1982
1995
0.4
0.6Trav 2004
2005
0
0.2
0
Very Large Urban Areas
Large Urban Areas
Medium Urban Areas
Small Urban Areas
All 437 Urban Areas
Source: TTI (2007)
Consequences of Consequences of Motorization:
Air Quality and Climate yChange▪ Motor vehicles account for as much as 70‐85% of airborne much as 70 85% of airborne pollutants in cities such as Mexico City and Sao Paulo
▪ OECD countries account for 70% OECD countries account for 70% of world driving and responsible for 50‐65% of CO, NOx and CO2emissions worldwide.
25
r)
USA
20
apita pe
r year
Canada
Australia
15
tric ton pe
r ca
UK10
mission
s (me
Japan
UK
5
CO2 e
China
India
World
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: World Development Indicators (2008)
350
400
ubic
met
er)
Suspended ParticulateMatters
c m
eter
)
250
300
gram
per
cu
SOx
NOx
ms
per c
ubic
150
200
ion
(mic
rog
(mic
rogr
am
50
100
conc
entra
tion
cent
ratio
n
0
50
jing
ghai
ang
mbai
kata elh
i
eles
sco
YorkPollu
tant
cPo
lluta
nt c
o
Beijin
Shangh
Shenya
n
Mumb
Kolka Del
Los Angele
San Fran
cisc
New Yo
160
180
1999
2000
2001
120
140
ity Inde
x > 100
2002
2003
2004
2005
80
100
ys with Air Qua
l 2005
40
60
Num
ber o
f Day
0
20
Riverside‐San Bernardino, CA
Pittsburgh, PA Los Angeles‐Long Beach, CA
Sacramento, CA St. Louis, MO‐IL Houston, TX Baltimore, MD Philadelphia, PA‐NJ
Source: Environmental Protection Agency (2008)
Air pollution can make asthma symptoms worse Air pollution can make asthma symptoms worse and trigger attacksKey pollutants: Ground‐level ozone from smog and
i l f h k d dparticulate matters from haze, smoke and dustCarbon monoxide poisoningChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)p yGroup of diseases that can cause airflow blockage and breathing related problemsIncludes chronic bronchitis and in some cases asthmaIncludes chronic bronchitis and in some cases, asthmaLeading cause of death, illness, and disability in the United States. In 2000, 119,000 deaths, 726,000 hospitalizations and 1 5 million hospital emergency hospitalizations, and 1.5 million hospital emergency departments visits were caused by COPD.
Petroleum95.9%
N lNatural gas2.2%
Renewable
Electricity0.3%
1.6%
Source: US Department of Energy (2007)
Transportation accounts for 69% of total Transportation accounts for 69% of total domestic petroleum demand in 2006Highway transportation accounts for 92% of Highway transportation accounts for 92% of domestic petroleum demand for transportation in 2006transportation in 2006
The world burns 85 million barrels of
l d lpetroleum dailyThe US burns about one‐
t f th ld’ ilquarter of the world’s oilAbout one of every nine barrels of the world oil barrels of the world oil goes into American gasoline tanksgasoline tanks
Source: New York Times (April 22, 2008)
US cars, SUVs, vans and pickup trucks get poor gas mileage. Fleet‐wide standards for new vehicles (mpg)
d h h hAmericans drive much more than othersEstimated miles per vehicle driven annually:
United States, 12427
European Union, 7829
Japan, 7097
In the US, daily t hi h commutes, which are
longer, are overwhelmingly in cars.g y
1541 For every American
who bikes to work:
drive to work alone.1545 commuters walk to
work.
219
ride in car pools.
9 take public transit
Source: New York Times (April 22, 2008)
Reduction in Fleet SizeStep 1: Get rid of one in four light trucks
Replace 25% of SUVs, vans and pickups with cars
Annual Savings: gUS gasoline consumption cut by just 2.5% (based on 2005 data). The reduction is small because US car fleet gets such gpoor average mileage.
Equivalent: Slightly less than the oil US imported g y pfrom Kuwait in 2005.
Fuel Type SwitchStep 2: Switch one in four vehicles to diesel
Fuel Type Switch
dieselDiesel engines are at least 25% more efficient than gasoline engines.I E b t % f In Europe, about 45% of new cars are diesel.
Annual Savings:Gasoline use cut 5%.
Equivalent:Slightly less than the oil the US imported Slightly less than the oil the US imported from Russia and Libya in 2005.
Reduction in TravelStep 3: Reduce distance driven by 25%
Reduction in Travel
25%If everyone did this, it would return American driving distances to where they were in the early 80sthey were in the early 80s.
Annual Savings:Gasoline use cut 25%.
E i lEquivalent:Slightly less than the oil the US imported from Saudi Arabia, Angola or p , gEcuador in 2005.
Combined EffectStep 4: Do all of aboveFewer SUVs, more diesel, less driving., , g
Annual Savings:Gasoline use cut 30.5%.But there is still room for improvement. US will still exceed Japan and Europe in miles driven and lag in fuel efficiency even with reduced consumptionfuel efficiency even with reduced consumption.
Comparison:Yearly savings of 42 billion gallons – significantly more than the biofuels production goal of 36 billion gallons in 2022 enacted by Congress.
Reliance on automobiles Causes lack of physical activity▪ About 3% of work trips and less than 10% of all trips in USA are by walking and bicyclingy g y g
▪ More than 40% of all trips in Sweden, Italy, Denmark, Netherlands and Austria are by walking and bicycling
Lack of non‐motorized and public transportationp pRestricts mobility▪ Especially for poor, young, elderly and physically disadvantagedg
Lack of consideration of bicycles and pedestrians in transportation system design
▪ Results in injuries and fatalities for pedestrians and bicyclists ▪ Results in injuries and fatalities for pedestrians and bicyclists (15% of all fatalities)
b l d d hAbout 900,000 people die and more than 10 million injured each year as a result of
d h ld idroad crashes worldwide
120 000
100,000
120,000
China
80,000
dents
India
60,000
Traffic
Accid
USA40,000
Fatalities in USA
0
20,000
JapanUK Australia0
Source: United Nations (2007)
R d h t f % f ll d th i Road crashes account for 2% of overall deaths in 2005 in USA (National Center for Health Statistics)However, it accounted for:14% of deaths from age 1‐423% of deaths from age 5 14 23% of deaths from age 5‐14 33% of deaths from age 15‐2418% of deaths from age 25‐34g 5 348% of deaths from age 35‐44
Road crashes constitute a critical public health hazard for children and young adultshazard for children and young adults
Decennial data from 46 cities in the US, Australia, Canada, Western Europe and Asia 1960‐1990 (Kenworthy and Laube)Indicators of transport efficiency in 37 global cities (The World Bank)
Variables 1960 1970 1980 1990 1960-1990
Transit boardings /capita 0 76 0 66 0 66 0 69 0 67Transit boardings /capita 0.76 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.67
Total energy consumption /capita -0.51 -0.54 -0.64 -0.69 -0.58
Car kms of travel/ car -0 43 -0 64 -0 64 -0 38 -0 51Car kms of travel/ car 0.43 0.64 0.64 0.38 0.51
Cars/1000 people -0.78 -0.79 -0.80 -0.82 -0.71
Parking spaces in CBD/1000 -0.55 -0.62 -0.47 -0.49 -0.46g pemployees
Road length/ capita -0.70 -0.60 -0.65 -0.67 -0.61
Energy consumption by private modes /capita
-0.63 -0.56 -0.65 -0.69 -0.60
Car kms of travel/ capita -0 76 -0 70 -0 72 -0 71 -0 64Car kms of travel/ capita -0.76 -0.70 -0.72 -0.71 -0.64
Boardings per transit km of travel 0.76 0.77 0.43 0.45 0.48
80000
90000n
60000
70000
onsu
mpt
ion
r)
40000
50000
Ener
gy C
oca
pita
/yea
r
l
20000
30000
40000
spor
tatio
n (M
J/c y = ‐17130 ln x + 122749
r2 = 0.731
0
10000
20000
Tran
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Transit Boardings (per capita/year)
450
500r)
350
400
capi
ta/y
ear
200
250
300
ding
s (p
er c
100
150
200
ansi
t Boa
rd
y = 474.5e‐0.0036x
r2 = 0 6622
0
50
100
Tra r = 0.6622
00 200 400 600 800 1000
Parking Spaces per 1000 Employees
4500
5000
3000
3500
4000
apita
/yea
r)
2000
2500
3000
ions
(kg/
ca
l
1000
1500
2000
CO
2 em
iss y = ‐1291.8 ln x + 6505.6
r2 = 0.6367
0
500
1000C
00 20 40 60 80 100
JTW by Transit (%)
1.2
1.4
1
ry F
acto
r
y = 0.2696 ln x – 0.3511
0.6
0.8
ost R
ecov
e y 9 35
r2 = 0.6219
0.4
Tran
sit C
o
0
0.2
T
00 100 200 300 400
Urban Population Density (persons/hectare)
Individual’s desire for freedom of travelIndividual s desire for freedom of travelIncreasing demand for more mobility, accessibility and personal space
Need for planners and policy makers to render demand compatible with sustainable developmentMinimi e the need for tra elMinimize the need for travelPublic transportation system to complement automobiles
Facilitate non‐motorized travelFacilitate non motorized travelEncourage use of energy efficient vehiclesFacilitate HOV use
Current pricing mechanisms do not Current pricing mechanisms do not consider the full cost of automotive transportationRoad safety and environmental Road safety and environmental impacts should be internalized and translated into user charges to slow down demand for road traffic Electronic Road Pricing in Singaporeslow down demand for road traffic Additional revenues collected can be used:
Improving road safety
g g p
Improving road safetyDeveloping vehicle and fuel technologiesImproving public transportationImproving public transportation
Congestion pricing in London
Role of technologygyDynamic analysis of traffic information and signals real‐timeDissemination of real‐ Wi‐Fi on the move
time information via ATIS▪ Internet and wireless communications
▪ Dynamic variable Dynamic variable message signs
VMS for congestion pricing
Minimize dispersal and travelL l d t t ti li iLong‐range land use‐transportation policiesSmart growth in central cities and suburbs
d d lTransit‐oriented developmentsUrban design to improve quality of life
M k P bli T i A i M k P bli T i A i Make Public Transportation an Attractive Make Public Transportation an Attractive AlternativeAlternativeIncrease level of service and quality of public q y ptransportationSeamless travel through regional integration of servicesservicesMarket segmentationNew suburban rail and bus rapid transit systemsP bli P i t P t hi (PPP) Public‐Private Partnerships (PPP) Use of cleaner technologiesInfrastructure for non‐motorized transportationp
Role of technology:Alternative fuels and energy▪ Biofuels▪ Hydrogen fuel cell▪ Solar power
Enhanced vehicle technology:technology:▪ Hybrid vehicle▪ Battery technology▪ Hydrogen or electric‐powered vehicle
▪ Vehicles with lower emissions
Cooperation between public and private sectorsCollaboration with universitiesProacti e p blic o treach programsProactive public outreach programsRegional effortsCommunity based enterprisesCommunity based enterprises