Equity Research13 August 2013
Global Oil & Gas Weekly Rising demand for China Oil Services We believe Chinas oilfield services market is at the early stages of an unprecedented growth cycle. Our colleagues in Asia recently initiated on a number of Chinese Oil service companies in China Oilfield Services: Initiation, 6 Aug 2013 in which they forecast an earnings CAGR of 30% in the 2012-2015 period. Driven by rising demand for oil services and equipment both domestically and internationally, we expect the market to double to US$2bn by 2015. Anton Oil (OW, PT HKD6.60) is our top pick given its strong positioning in the domestic Chinese market and increasing ability to handle integrated projects. Elsewhere in the world, we see the biggest beneficiaries of this trend as Hunting (OW, PT 1100p) in Europe and the Big Four in the US namely Baker Hughes (OW, PT $69), Halliburton (OW, PT$71), Schlumberger (OW, PT $123) and Weatherford (OW, PT $24).
Drilling activity to drive oilfield services demand: Drilling activity is typically an indicator of oilfield services activity. The number of wells drilled by Petrochina and Sinopec has grown at a CAGR of 9% over the past 10 years. We believe the demand for oilfield services will intensify further with the increase in unconventional oil/gas development, driven by the need for well stimulation and high-end drilling services.
Hunting and the Big Four the western way to play Chinese drilling: In Europe, Hunting opened a manufacturing facility in China in 2010 and has already commenced the manufacture of stimulation tools serving the domestic market. In the US, the Big Four have all adopted strategies to position themselves for the Chinese shale opportunity. Given their technological strength and rich experience, we believe these companies will all play an increasingly bigger role in Chinas oilfield services market.
Chinas high-end oilfield services market to grow 4-5x by 2020
Source: Spears & Associates, Barclays Research
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
2019
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2020
E
US$ bnDrilling services Completion equipment & services Stimulation services
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies coveredin its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 48.
SECTOR UPDATE
European Integrated Oil Rahim Karim, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 1853 [email protected] Barclays, London
Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 [email protected] Barclays, London
Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 [email protected] Barclays, London
Americas Integrated OilPaul Y. Cheng, CFA 1.212.526.1884 [email protected] BCI, New York
Asia ex-Japan Oil & GasClement Chen +852 2903 2498 [email protected] Barclays Bank, Hong Kong
Somshankar Sinha +91 22 6719 6031 [email protected] BSIPL, Mumbai
European Oil Services & DrillingMick Pickup +44 (0)20 3134 6695 [email protected] Barclays, London
U.S. Oil Services & DrillingJames C. West 1.212.526.8796 [email protected] BCI, New York
European Oil & Gas: E&PAlessandro Pozzi +44 (0)20 7773 4745 [email protected] Barclays, London
CEEMEA Oil & Gas Matthew Thomas +44 (0)20 7773 3640 [email protected] Barclays, London
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 2
Barclays Research Industries included in this report
Industry Industry view Author(s)
Americas Integrated Oil Positive Paul Cheng CFA
Asia ex-Japan Oil Positive Somshankar Sinha, Clement Chen
CEEMEA Oil Neutral Matt Thomas
European Integrated Oil Neutral Lydia Rainforth CFA, Rahim Karim CFA
European Exploration & Production Positive Alessandro Pozzi
European Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup
European Refining & Marketing Negative Lydia Rainforth CFA
Russian Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup
US Independent Refiners Positive Paul Cheng, CFA
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 3
CONTENTS
CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES .......................................
REFINING AND MARKETING MARGINS ...........................................
TANKER AND EXCHANGE RATES .................................................
INVENTORIES ....................................
CRACK SPREADS .............................
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE .....Valuations ..............................................................
REFINERS ...........................................Valuations ..............................................................
Share price performance ....................................
SERVICES ...........................................Valuations ..............................................................
Share price performance ....................................
E&PS ....................................................Valuations ..............................................................
Share price performance ....................................
GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OILS .....................................................Valuations ..............................................................
Share price performance ....................................The data source for all charts and tables is Company data, Barclays Research, unless otherwise stated. Share prices are as of 09 August 2013 at market close, unless otherwise stated.
Corporate Calendar
2013August
13 Enquest 1H 2013 Earnings ReleaseGrupa Lotos Q2 2013 Earnings ReleaseMOL Q2 2013 Earnings ReleaseOMV Q2 2013 Earnings Release
14 Subsea 7 Q2 2013 Earnings Release
20 Cairn 1H 2013 Earnings Release
22 Premier Oil 1H 2013 Earnings Release
23 Afren 1H 2013 Earnings Release
27 Aker Solutions Q2 2013 Earnings Release
28 Seadrill Q2 2013 Earnings Release
29 Hellenic Petroleum Q2 2013 Earnings ReleaseSalamander 1H 2013 Earnings ReleaseSoco 1H 2013 Earnings Release
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 4
Crude oil and natural gas prices
Henry Hub Rockies Russia UK-NBP Zee NE Asia LNG
Date Brent WTI ANS Kern River Dubai OPEC WTI-Maya Brent-Urals $/mBtu $/mBtu $/kcf p/therm p/therm $/mBtu
05-Aug-13 107.6 105.1 109.4 110.4 104.4 105.3 7.3 - 3.45 3.31 - 65.69 65.42 16.15
29-Jul-13 108.7 105.5 110.8 111.1 104.8 105.3 6.1 - 3.60 3.54 - 65.61 65.73 16.25
22-Jul-13 108.7 105.9 110.7 111.9 104.4 105.6 5.8 - 3.69 3.54 - 64.81 65.64 16.10
15-Jul-13 108.9 107.0 112.7 113.2 104.3 105.5 5.9 - 3.66 3.44 - 65.38 66.12 15.60
Aug-13 107.6 105.1 109.4 110.4 104.4 105.3 7.3 - 3.59 3.44 - 65.22 65.60 15.85
Jul-13 107.8 104.7 111.4 110.7 103.5 104.4 5.3 (0.1) 3.81 3.58 11.58 60.57 64.81 14.54
Jun-13 103.1 95.8 104.0 104.3 100.3 100.9 (0.5) 0.3 4.02 3.86 11.67 66.30 66.61 14.43
May-13 103.2 94.9 104.5 104.3 100.5 100.8 (3.5) 0.5 4.17 3.99 11.91 69.72 69.57 15.11
3Q 2013 107.8 104.8 111.1 110.6 103.6 104.6 5.7 (0.1) 3.81 3.44 11.23 65.22 65.60 15.95
2Q 2013 103.0 94.1 104.3 104.7 100.8 101.0 (3.8) 0.9 4.00 3.81 11.72 65.53 67.00 14.69
1Q 2013 112.8 94.3 110.4 113.9 108.0 109.4 (8.4) 2.1 3.50 3.50 12.30 74.27 71.44 17.95
4Q 2012 110.5 88.2 106.4 109.5 107.2 107.3 (5.0) 1.6 3.41 3.41 12.82 65.39 63.97 14.30
3Q 2012 109.9 92.1 108.7 109.4 106.1 106.3 (4.9) 1.2 2.88 2.75 12.93 56.86 57.27 13.59
2Q 2012 109.5 93.9 110.2 109.1 106.9 107.4 (3.7) 2.4 2.29 2.15 13.06 57.17 57.59 17.35
2013 107.9 96.2 108.1 109.6 104.3 105.1 (3.9) 1.2 3.73 3.62 11.90 69.23 68.70 16.23
2012 112.1 94.3 110.9 111.9 109.1 109.6 (5.5) 1.7 2.75 2.68 12.87 59.56 59.32 15.14
2011 111.0 95.1 109.6 112.4 106.1 107.6 (3.6) 1.7 3.94 3.79 11.80 56.84 57.56 13.77
2010 79.7 79.5 78.9 82.8 78.1 77.5 9.2 1.4 4.37 3.94 9.77 42.52 43.06 11.13
2009 62.2 62.1 61.1 64.6 62.1 61.1 5.8 0.6 3.94 3.17 8.21 30.81 31.20 8.91
2008 97.2 99.1 97.9 91.5 93.2 93.5 15.5 3.3 8.82 6.30 10.98 58.11 58.99 11.42
2007 72.7 72.3 71.7 62.3 68.4 68.8 12.5 3.2 6.94 4.10 7.92 29.85 30.38 6.96
2006 65.8 66.2 63.6 55.1 61.6 61.0 15.1 4.9 6.75 5.27 7.19 40.20 43.33 6.46
2005 55.0 56.6 53.7 45.0 49.4 50.7 11.4 4.5 8.91 7.15 5.68 38.30 40.94 5.60
2004 38.4 41.2 38.9 33.0 33.8 36.0 14.3 3.7 5.89 5.10 4.40 24.45 23.92 4.86
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets Source: WGI
Crude - $/blNatural gas
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 5
Refining and marketing margins
Date NW Europe US Gulf US W. Coast Singapore Med Eur 6 France Germany Italy UK PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5
05-Aug-13 1.37 3.84 7.99 7.41 0.49 18.55 11.43 20.46 24.62 9.62 14.73 11.03 10.44 35.31 9.10
29-Jul-13 1.06 6.15 10.71 8.10 0.21 18.05 9.18 18.65 24.62 9.14 11.26 7.27 7.48 31.08 4.88
22-Jul-13 0.86 5.50 10.68 8.50 0.17 18.03 12.01 22.03 23.27 6.97 11.27 8.20 8.41 29.79 4.69
15-Jul-13 2.09 6.21 11.41 8.84 1.43 13.14 6.74 17.51 19.04 1.53 6.36 3.47 3.55 27.41 (0.58)
Aug-13 1.37 3.84 7.99 7.41 0.49 18.55 11.43 20.46 24.62 9.62 14.73 11.03 10.44 35.31 9.10
Jul-13 1.38 5.75 10.52 8.71 0.62 15.27 8.88 18.33 20.93 5.11 9.03 6.10 5.86 31.75 1.95
Jun-13 2.03 9.37 15.50 9.10 1.81 19.00 14.24 20.45 23.59 11.94 13.12 24.54 10.73 41.94 1.73
May-13 1.15 10.79 13.55 7.27 1.09 16.12 11.28 20.67 19.28 8.77 11.04 22.43 9.10 36.68 3.70
3Q 2013 1.37 5.43 10.10 8.49 0.60 16.91 10.16 19.39 22.78 7.36 11.88 8.57 8.15 33.53 5.52
2Q 2013 1.28 11.27 13.63 7.35 1.60 18.52 14.14 20.76 22.46 11.98 12.87 20.81 10.33 37.22 4.38
1Q 2013 1.04 18.89 14.09 8.89 2.33 16.83 14.98 15.67 23.80 6.88 11.45 7.72 5.25 16.11 (4.27)
4Q 2012 1.57 19.37 12.34 7.24 2.18 18.55 12.21 20.36 25.68 13.65 18.51 13.37 10.54 37.63 9.46
3Q 2012 4.73 21.77 13.32 10.16 5.12 13.89 6.89 19.00 19.24 5.07 10.22 13.08 5.65 28.02 4.55
2Q 2012 3.30 17.51 10.13 8.19 5.12 19.85 14.00 18.98 28.30 15.08 15.98 17.28 13.56 39.46 15.95
2013 1.20 13.27 13.15 8.19 1.71 17.30 13.51 18.31 22.81 8.72 11.77 12.54 7.50 27.40 0.63
2012 2.61 18.66 11.31 8.45 3.59 16.69 11.16 18.58 23.46 9.56 12.52 11.46 7.72 28.38 6.87
2011 0.22 15.02 6.91 8.49 1.33 17.74 14.18 14.27 27.47 9.01 11.65 11.46 8.57 17.26 7.08
2010 1.42 1.29 8.37 4.66 2.46 13.81 10.34 11.36 22.55 6.20 9.07 9.42 7.62 14.49 6.14
2009 1.53 1.68 10.34 3.15 2.95 8.03 7.68 9.22 11.91 3.32 8.26 7.55 6.85 9.02 1.41
2008 3.94 1.42 9.51 8.43 6.54 12.54 11.71 9.76 19.83 8.85 13.30 10.86 11.52 13.87 7.58
2007 2.63 5.72 17.56 6.65 6.08 9.32 7.87 8.10 14.90 6.39 10.56 11.35 8.99 13.02 2.39
2006 1.26 3.53 16.94 5.00 6.05 7.60 5.61 5.80 13.61 5.36 12.52 8.64 10.27 11.49 2.60
2005 2.90 4.62 14.16 6.39 6.40 6.55 4.32 3.01 10.87 4.17 9.08 7.16 8.16 8.73 2.64
2004 2.79 1.75 11.59 6.24 6.42 6.14 2.78 1.50 7.95 0.95 10.02 7.94 6.82 9.18 5.04
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Refining margins - $/bl US gasoline marketing margins - $/blEuropean marketing margins - $/bl
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 6
Tanker and exchange rates
Date Suezmax Aframax Clean Dirty EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/EUR USD/NOK USD/CAD USD/AUS
05-Aug-13 18,977 11,936 14,299 12,062 1.33 1.55 1.16 5.91 1.04 1.11
29-Jul-13 21,406 14,172 15,518 12,250 1.33 1.52 1.15 5.93 1.03 1.11
22-Jul-13 12,803 18,397 13,080 13,704 1.32 1.54 1.16 5.91 1.03 1.08
15-Jul-13 10,463 9,725 12,713 14,525 1.31 1.52 1.16 6.01 1.04 1.09
Aug-13 13,891 13,232 13,428 13,449 1.33 1.54 1.16 5.92 1.04 1.11
Jul-13 6,128 10,967 10,076 12,585 1.31 1.52 1.16 6.03 1.04 1.09
Jun-13 12,200 9,855 11,303 11,902 1.32 1.55 1.17 5.89 1.03 1.06
May-13 18,060 14,950 14,252 14,734 1.30 1.53 1.18 5.82 1.02 1.01
3Q 2013 15,735 12,834 13,555 12,453 1.33 1.54 1.16 5.92 1.04 1.11
2Q 2013 12,134 11,765 11,833 12,983 1.31 1.53 1.18 5.84 1.02 1.01
1Q 2013 15,176 14,118 14,293 21,518 1.32 1.55 1.18 5.63 1.00 0.96
4Q 2012 11,577 13,954 15,610 15,348 1.30 1.61 1.24 5.68 0.99 0.96
3Q 2012 10,176 13,638 11,069 9,467 1.25 1.58 1.26 5.91 1.00 0.96
2Q 2012 20,986 16,017 18,545 10,934 1.28 1.58 1.23 5.89 1.01 0.99
2013 14,045 12,921 13,155 16,351 1.32 1.54 1.17 5.79 1.02 1.03
2012 17,738 14,881 14,769 13,162 1.29 1.59 1.23 5.82 1.00 0.97
2011 19,239 13,528 10,535 12,644 1.39 1.60 1.15 5.61 0.99 0.97
2010 31,259 19,745 14,956 11,292 1.33 1.55 1.17 6.05 1.03 1.09
2009 28,205 15,969 12,738 8,869 1.39 1.57 1.12 6.29 1.14 1.28
2008 78,573 50,923 37,239 25,508 1.47 1.85 1.26 5.65 1.07 1.20
2007 44,781 35,865 30,533 26,018 1.37 2.00 1.46 5.86 1.07 1.19
2006 52,931 39,338 30,758 27,227 1.26 1.84 1.47 6.41 1.13 1.33
2005 53,579 41,650 37,639 31,145 1.24 1.82 1.46 6.44 1.21 1.31
2004 74,236 49,227 39,054 29,010 1.24 1.83 1.47 6.74 1.30 1.36
Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly Source: Datastream
Tanker rates - $/ship/day Exchange rates
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 7
Inventories
US crude oil inventories, m bl US gasoline inventories, m bl US distillate inventories, m bl
240
280
320
360
400
440
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2012 2013Week
170
190
210
230
250
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2012 2013Week
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2012 2013Week
US total inventories, m bl US Refinery Utilisation, % Natural Gas Storage, bcf
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2012 2013Week
65
75
85
95
105
Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12
Refinery utilisation Rolling 12 month average
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2012 2013Week
Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count
050
100150200250300350400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
2012 2013Week
707580859095
100105110115
Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18
Brent WTI
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
Gas Rigs Oil Rigs
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 8
Crack spreads
European Gasoline Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
-10
0
10
20
30
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2012 2013Week
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2012 2013Week
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2012 2013Week
European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2012 2013Week
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2012 2013Week
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2012 2013Week
Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl Brent Spot Price $/bl
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
-10
0
10
20
30
Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
30
60
90
120
150
Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 9
Share price performance
European Integrateds vs European Market European Services vs European Market European Refiners vs European Market
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
65707580859095
100105110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
European E&P vs European Market European Integrateds vs European Services European Integrateds vs European Refiners
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
859095
100105110115120125130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
European Integrateds vs European E&P European Services vs European Refiners European Services vs European E&P
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage. Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 10
Integrateds
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 11
Valuations IntegratedsChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 09-Aug Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
MajorsBP U/W 443 475 7 5.3 4.9 4.8 8.7 8.1 8.1 (1.2) 2.9 2.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 10.3 9.9 9.9 50.8 50.8 -6
Chevron* E/W 123 145 18 6.6 6.5 6.1 10.5 10.5 9.7 0.9 0.6 1.4 3.2 3.5 3.8 16.4 13.8 13.8 11.7 12.1 -2
ExxonMobil* E/W 90.7 102.0 12 8.8 8.7 8.4 12.5 12.4 12.0 2.4 3.2 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 18.3 15.6 15.6 7.3 7.7 -5
Royal Dutch Shell A E/W 2091 2400 15 5.2 5.1 5.0 8.5 8.7 8.8 5.1 4.8 4.6 5.7 5.9 6.2 12.3 10.8 10.8 3.8 3.9 -8
Royal Dutch Shell B E/W 2182 2400 10 5.4 5.3 5.2 8.9 9.1 9.2 4.9 4.6 4.4 5.3 5.6 5.8 12.3 10.8 10.8 3.8 4.0 -5
Total U/W 40.3 42.5 6 4.6 4.4 4.3 8.1 8.2 8.4 (0.4) 1.6 0.2 6.0 6.1 6.2 12.6 10.9 10.9 4.9 5.0 -1
Arithmetic average 11 6.0 5.8 5.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 1.9 3.0 2.8 4.7 5.0 5.2 13.7 12.0 12.0 -5
Integrated - EuropeBG Group O/W 1211 1350 11 9.3 8.6 7.1 15.6 13.2 10.7 (6.8) (5.3) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 8.8 10.2 10.2 77.9 80.1 -3
Eni O/W 17.1 20.0 17 4.9 4.2 3.9 11.9 8.9 8.4 0.3 7.0 7.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.5 9.5 9.5 1.4 1.6 -12
Galp O/W 12.6 16.0 27 16.3 15.7 13.7 31.4 27.6 20.7 (2.0) (2.5) (2.1) 2.3 2.7 3.3 5.6 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.4 -7
MOL U/W 16450 17000 3 5.7 5.4 4.9 9.8 9.8 9.3 12.9 8.3 10.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 1679 1888 -5
OMV U/W 34.4 31.0 (10) 4.3 4.4 4.5 8.4 9.0 9.0 7.2 1.7 2.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 10.5 8.2 8.2 4.1 4.4 -3
Repsol O/W 18.2 19.0 5 5.8 5.3 4.9 12.1 10.6 9.6 2.9 6.3 7.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.2 9.2 9.2 1.5 1.7 0
Statoil E/W 127.0 150.0 18 4.1 4.2 4.3 9.0 9.2 9.3 (0.7) (1.6) (1.8) 5.5 5.7 5.9 12.0 9.4 9.4 14.1 15.0 -2
Arithmetic average 10 7.2 6.8 6.2 14.0 12.6 11.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 7.7 8.2 8.2 -5
Integrated - US*ConocoPhillips O/W 66.8 80.0 20 6.4 6.2 6.0 11.2 11.0 10.4 (1.3) (1.2) (0.3) 4.0 4.1 4.2 11.7 11.2 11.2 6.0 5.7 4
Hess O/W 74.9 86.0 15 6.2 5.7 5.0 11.5 11.9 10.3 (6.7) 5.0 6.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 8.3 8.0 8.0 6.5 6.5 4
Murphy E/W 70.9 70.0 (1) 5.6 5.0 4.8 11.6 11.0 10.7 (8) (2.9) 0.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 11.0 9.2 9.2 6.1 5.7 3
Arithmetic average 12 6.0 5.6 5.3 11.6 12.2 11.4 (3.8) 0.2 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 10.0 8.9 8.9 2
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on return on market capitalisation under mid-cycle assumptions.
P/E, x Dividend yield, % RoACE, %FCF yield, %EV:EBIDA, xBarclays
2013Cons 2013
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. * Chevron, Exxon Mobil and the US Integrateds are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York. The forecasts for these companies are based on assumptions which are aligned but may sometimes differ from those used for the European companies.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 12
Valuations Integrateds
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
0
5
10
15
20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EV/EBIDA 2013 Average
05
101520253035
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
P/E 2013 Average
01234567
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
Dividend Yield, % 2013 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-5
0
5
10
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
FCF Yield, % 2013 Average
0
5
10
15
20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
RoACE, % 2013 Average
-100
102030405060
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
2012 2013
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV/b, $
-10
-5
0
5
10
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2013 Average
-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EPS Growth 2013 Average
0
5
10
15
20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EV: 2P reserves 2013 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 13
Share price performance Integrateds
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
BPCVX
XOMMOLCOPREPTOT
OMVENI
RDSAGALP
STLBG
-5 0 5 10 15
XOMBP
MOLRDSA
CVXSTL
COPOMV
BGTOTREP
GALPENI
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
STLRDSA
ENIBP
OMVCVX
XOMMOL
BGGALP
REPTOTCOP
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Integrateds vs Brent European Integrateds vs US Integrateds
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
STLRDSA
BGMOL
BPXOM
ENICVXTOTCOP
GALPOMV
REP
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-1380
85
90
95
100
105
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
BP vs European Integrateds Chevron vs US Integrateds ConocoPhillips vs US Integrateds
400
420
440
460
480
500
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
BP vs Sector BP, p
50
70
90
110
130
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
CVX vs Sector CVX, $
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
COP vs Sector COP, $
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 14
Share price performance Integrateds
Exxon Mobil vs US Integrateds Royal Dutch Shell A vs Royal Dutch Shell B Royal Dutch Shell A vs European Integrateds
60
70
80
90
100
90
94
98
102
106
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13XOM vs Sector XOM, $
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13RDSA vs Sector RDSA, p
Total vs European Integrateds BG Group vs European Integrateds Eni vs European Integrateds
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13TOT vs Sector TOT, E
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13BG vs Sector BG, p
10
12
14
16
18
20
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13ENI vs Sector ENI, E
Galp vs European Integrateds Repsol vs European Integrateds Statoil vs European Integrateds
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
80859095
100105110115120125
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13GALP vs Sector GALP, E
10111213141516171819
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13REP vs Sector REP, E
110
120
130
140
150
160
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13STL vs Sector STL, NOK
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 15
Share price performance Integrateds
BP vs Total BP vs Shell Total vs Eni
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Total vs Shell BG vs Statoil Eni vs Repsol
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
OMV vs Repsol BG vs Eni Eni vs Statoil
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 16
Share price performance Integrateds Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6Hang Seng 21808 0.7 -1.7 -0.7 4.8 -0.4 4.8 -3.8 -1.7 8.8 7.3 -5.3 11.5 -8.1
Integrated - MajorsBP 443 0.2 -1.0 -4.9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 1.1 -2.5 6.5 -10.5 3.3 44.4Chevron 123 -0.5 -2.0 -4.0 3.5 -2.7 3.5 13.3 9.9 -7.8 10.5 -1.6 0.8 57.7ExxonMobil 90.7 -1.2 -1.3 -4.3 0.4 -3.2 0.4 4.8 4.1 -5.7 6.9 -1.3 2.3 49.7Royal Dutch Shell A 24.3 0.8 0.8 -4.9 1.7 -4.5 1.7 -5.2 -5.5 -1.9 2.5 -3.4 -4.3 48.5Royal Dutch Shell B 2182 0.8 1.3 -4.5 2.6 -3.7 2.6 -4.2 -6.2 -1.5 1.7 -0.7 -7.9 62.4Total 40.3 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 10.2 0.9 10.2 4.5 -6.7 1.5 10.2 -11.5 -0.7 14.7Arithmetic Average 0.0 -0.4 -3.6 3.0 -2.2 3.0 2.1 -0.6 -3.0 6.4 -4.8 -1.1 46.2
Integrated - EuropeBG Group 1211 1.3 3.2 2.8 10.9 4.5 10.9 14.3 4.2 -20.3 -1.0 -11.9 8.2 41.3Eni 17.1 -0.7 -0.5 2.8 11.2 3.5 11.2 -5.6 -6.9 8.1 2.8 -9.1 12.7 13.4Galp 12.6 0.5 2.0 5.7 14.0 5.7 14.0 8.7 1.2 -6.4 27.9 -22.8 11.2 -2.7OMV 34.4 1.7 -0.9 4.7 1.7 3.8 1.7 27.2 18.1 1.6 11.5 -11.4 16.6 1.5Repsol 18.2 0.4 0.0 3.6 15.1 1.6 15.1 23.1 0.7 7.9 21.0 -33.1 -18.7 49.6Statoil 127 1.3 1.7 -0.2 5.9 0.6 5.9 -13.0 -3.1 -3.9 8.6 -12.2 5.4 36.8Arithmetic Average 0.8 0.9 3.2 9.8 3.3 9.8 9.1 2.4 -2.2 11.8 -16.7 5.9 23.3
Integrated - USConocoPhillips 66.8 -0.4 -0.6 1.7 10.5 3.0 10.5 15.2 3.6 1.0 2.3 -3.6 4.3 49.1Hess 74.9 0.7 -0.6 2.3 12.6 0.6 12.6 41.4 35.2 -1.8 23.6 -26.3 3.8 13.7Husky Energy 29.0 -0.3 -2.9 -4.2 5.8 -2.4 5.8 -4.8 -2.8 8.1 7.6 -1.7 5.3 1.6Imperial Oil 41.7 -0.1 -2.5 -3.6 6.4 -5.5 6.4 -5.6 -4.8 -7.7 10.1 -7.9 1.7 22.3Murphy 70.9 1.0 -0.5 4.7 16.4 4.7 16.4 19.1 7.0 8.3 6.8 -10.6 1.0 13.9Suncor 33.2 0.9 -1.4 1.8 9.7 2.1 9.7 -1.9 -8.8 -1.3 13.8 -11.4 13.0 -2.0Arithmetic Average 0.2 -2.4 -0.3 8.8 -0.4 8.8 10.9 5.6 1.3 11.4 -11.5 5.3 22.1
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for
companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted
average for our coverage.
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13 August 2013 17
Refiners
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 18
Valuations RefinersChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 09-Aug Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Refiners - EuropeEssar Energy O/W 130 170 30 18.6 14.2 8.9 9.8 6.1 5.7 (23) (4.4) 10.1 0.0 1.6 1.7 6.0 6.8 6.8 13.31 12.87 -
Hellenic E/W 7.98 9.00 13 8.5 7.3 6.7 14.3 9.7 8.9 8.1 12.0 13.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.9 7.8 7.8 0.56 0.57 -16
Grupa Lotos E/W 37.6 34.0 (9) 9.6 8.6 8.8 15.3 11.1 12.3 3.6 5.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.45 3.25 -8
Motor Oil O/W 8.09 9.50 17 8.3 6.6 6.4 12.0 8.0 8.5 13.9 18.1 17.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.9 10.7 10.7 0.67 0.72 -19
Neste Oil U/W 13.16 12.0 (9) 7.4 6.7 5.8 12.4 11.8 10.4 8.5 9.7 11.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 6.9 7.2 7.2 1.06 1.19 5
PKN Orlen U/W 45.4 40.0 (12) 6.4 5.5 4.5 15.9 12.7 9.9 7.1 9.4 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 6.8 6.8 2.85 3.47 -14
Saras U/W 0.94 1.00 7 5.5 4.1 3.6 (93) 38 39.0 7.5 13.4 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 2.9 2.9 -0.01 0.01 -180
Tupras U/W 41.8 42.8 2 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.2 7.0 8.3 (26) 3.2 7.8 9.0 9.7 10.1 18.9 16.9 14.0 5.78 4.27 -11
Arithmetic average 5 9.0 7.6 6.5 (0.7) 13.0 12.9 (0.0) 8.4 11.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 8.0 7.8 7.5 -39
Refiners - US*Alon USA Energy U/W 12.2 23.0 88 4.1 4.5 2.7 6.0 9.4 4.6 22.8 13.5 25.3 3.1 2.5 3.8 14.4 18.8 18.8 2.05 1.18 -39
Delek US Holdings O/W 29.4 52.0 77 5.1 6.3 3.8 10.0 11.1 5.8 7.1 5.9 14.0 2.6 2.6 3.2 24.0 26.1 26.1 2.95 3.14 -27
Tesoro O/W 53.1 120 126 7.8 6.8 5.4 11.4 10.1 6.8 (14) 7.2 8.9 1.7 2.4 3.2 14.2 16.5 16.5 4.65 4.86 -14
Valero O/W 37.1 72.0 94 5.7 4.9 4.4 8.8 7.4 6.8 9.4 8.0 9.3 2.3 2.7 3.5 10.6 12.3 12.3 4.20 4.17 -20
Arithmetic average 96 5.7 5.6 4.1 9.0 9.5 6.0 6.4 8.6 14.4 2.4 2.5 3.4 15.8 18.4 18.4 -25
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on an assumed discount to the estimated greenfield replacement value.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. *The US Refiners are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York.
Dividend yield, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, %Barclays
2013Cons 2013
RoACE, %
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 19
Valuations Refiners
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
0
5
10
15
20
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EV/EBIDA 2013 Average
0
5
10
15
20
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
P/E 2013 Average
0
2
4
6
8
10
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
Dividend Yield, % 2013 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
FCF Yield, % 2013 Average
05
1015202530
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
RoACE, % 2013 Average
-500
50100150200250300
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
2012 2013
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV: Capital employed, x
-20
0
20
40
60
80
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2013 Average
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EPS Growth 2013 Average
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EV/Capital Employed 2013 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays estimates
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 20
Share price performance Refiners
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-2 0 2 4 6 8
BrentESSR
TUPRSNES1V
ORLSector
PKNSRSLTS
MOHELPE
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
BrentTUPRS
ORLPKNSRSLTS
SectorESSRMOHELPE
NES1V
-30 -20 -10 0 10
TUPRSORL
ESSRSRS
ELPEPKNLTS
SectorMOHBrent
NES1V
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Refiners vs Brent European Refiners vs US Refiners
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
ORLBrent
TUPRSSRS
ESSRPKN
SectorLTS
ELPENES1V
MOH
708090
100110120130140150160
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Essar vs European Refiners Hellenic Petroleum vs European Refiners Lotos Group vs European Refiners
60
80
100
120
140
160
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13ESSAR vs Sector ESSR, p
2345678910
5060708090
100110120130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13ELPE vs Sector ELPE, E
5
15
25
35
45
55
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13LTS vs Sector LTS, PLN
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 21
Share price performance Refiners
Motor Oil vs European Refiners Neste Oil vs European Refiners ORL vs European Refiners
2
4
6
8
10
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13MOH vs Sector MOH, E
4
8
12
16
20
60708090
100110120130140150
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13NES1V vs Sector NES1V, E
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13ORL vs Sector ORL, ILS
PKN Orlen vs European Refiners Saras vs European Refiners Tupras vs European Refiners
25
35
45
55
65
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13PKN vs Sector PKN, PLN
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SRS vs Sector SRS, E
202530354045505560
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13Tupras vs Sector TUPRS, TRY
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 22
Share price performance Refiners
PKN Orlen vs Lotos Group Saras vs Motor Oil Saras vs Neste
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Neste vs Tupras Tupras vs Saras Hellenic vs Motor Oil
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Essar vs Neste
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 23
Share price performance RefinersLocal Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6Refiners - EuropeEssar Energy 130 2.8 -2.5 -6.8 3.5 0.0 3.5 4.2 7.9 1.2 -3.1 -22.9 -6.9 -61.9Hellenic 7.98 0.8 6.1 18.1 16.6 8.4 16.6 9.2 -1.4 18.1 39.6 -22.5 -6.6 12.5Grupa Lotos 37.6 -2.6 6.4 11.8 11.1 15.7 11.1 -10.0 -5.5 32.0 17.2 -4.3 28.7 -19.9MOL 16450 -0.9 -1.0 1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -8.0 -12.4 -4.6 14.5 -12.9 16.1 -15.0Motor Oil 8.09 0.4 5.6 6.2 13.7 6.6 13.7 -1.3 -11.1 36.7 13.4 -15.6 5.7 -13.4Neste Oil 13.16 -0.3 0.4 18.2 20.3 21.5 20.3 36.4 9.7 -3.9 16.8 -8.6 21.4 -30.0ORL 1.53 -0.3 0.9 -2.3 -2.8 0.8 -2.8 -19.3 -2.0 32.0 -18.1 -14.6 13.7 19.7PKN Orlen 45.4 -0.8 2.6 7.6 3.5 6.7 3.5 -9.5 -1.2 11.9 26.7 -6.4 21.3 -7.1Saras 0.94 -0.5 3.7 -1.6 -3.2 3.0 -3.2 -4.0 -6.8 -3.1 30.1 -27.0 6.5 -39.4Tupras 41.8 0.2 -0.7 3.2 -10.6 2.4 -10.6 -24.4 5.3 25.7 6.7 -16.2 20.5 14.7Arithmetic Average -0.1 2.1 5.6 5.1 6.4 5.1 -2.7 -1.8 14.6 14.4 -15.1 12.0 -14.0
Refiners - USAlon 12.2 -3.7 -6.4 -10.0 -15.5 -10.5 -15.5 -32.4 5.3 28.8 61.9 -6.5 3.9 44.4Delek 29.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.1 2.1 -2.9 2.1 16.0 55.8 -2.5 44.9 13.4 35.9 55.7HollyFrontier 44.8 -1.5 -0.8 0.9 4.6 -1.8 4.6 -3.9 10.5 12.2 16.5 10.2 37.4 82.0Marathon Petroleum 73.2 1.0 1.8 1.8 3.1 -0.1 3.1 16.3 42.2 13.8 21.5 3.6 30.2 NASunCoke Energy 16.4 2.3 2.8 1.6 17.1 3.9 17.1 5.3 4.7 -6.5 10.0 3.1 26.9 NATesoro 53.1 -0.5 -4.0 -2.6 1.5 -6.6 1.5 20.5 32.9 2.4 67.9 -7.0 14.9 111.2Valero 37.1 0.3 5.8 3.0 6.8 3.8 6.8 19.1 33.3 6.2 31.2 -6.3 22.4 22.0Arithmetic Average -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 2.8 -2.0 2.8 5.8 26.4 7.8 36.3 1.5 24.5 63.0
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies
under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
26643Rectangle
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 24
Services
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 25
Valuations ServicesChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 09-Aug Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Services - EuropeAker Solutions U/W 90 105 17 7.5 6.6 6.4 12.3 8.6 7.3 1.4 7.3 8.5 4.1 5.2 6.1 11.5 14.5 15.7 7.28 6.96 -4
Amec U/W 1090 1350 24 11.6 9.9 8.3 12.1 10.9 9.4 7.2 8.9 10.1 3.7 4.1 4.8 20.4 20.7 21.0 80.69 87.56 -1
CGG Veritas U/W 18.0 22.0 22 16.7 8.8 5.9 16.5 8.7 6.7 (13) (4.8) (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 7.9 10.0 1.10 1.19 -2
Hunting O/W 862 1100 28 10.6 9.3 8.0 13.9 12.0 10.5 4.3 6.3 8.2 2.4 2.8 3.1 9.4 10.6 11.9 62.05 62.63 -1
PGS O/W 80.7 135 67 7.2 4.7 3.9 9.6 5.7 4.7 (0.6) 1.8 1.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 11.2 16.3 18.1 1.45 1.42 -5
Polarcus O/W 5.27 10.0 90 4.0 2.7 1.9 4.8 2.9 2.5 4.8 6.7 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.19 0.12 -33
Saipem O/W 16.0 20.0 25 16.7 7.5 5.6 (21) 11.7 8.1 (8.2) 18.1 18.5 0.0 2.8 4.1 0.2 6.9 9.6 -0.76 -0.75 3
SBM Offshore O/W 15.4 19.3 25 12.4 7.2 5.7 12.7 7.5 5.3 (22) (5.1) (3.1) 0.0 4.0 5.6 9.8 12.6 14.8 1.22 1.57 5
Subsea 7 O/W 113 180 59 10.0 6.1 4.9 25.3 10.3 8.2 1.4 7.8 9.8 1.3 3.1 3.9 4.3 9.3 11.3 1.58 0.91 -41
Technip O/W 83.5 113 35 9.3 7.3 6.2 15.2 12.1 10.7 5.7 7.1 8.7 2.3 2.7 3.0 11.2 13.6 14.8 5.48 5.38 0
Tecnicas Reunidas E/W 34.4 47 37 10.9 8.4 5.0 12.9 10.9 9.8 8.5 11.3 11.6 4.3 5.0 5.6 27.1 28.5 27.1 2.66 2.54 -4
TGS U/W 188 220 17 4.4 3.5 3.1 11.4 8.9 8.0 3.4 6.0 7.2 4.3 5.6 6.2 23.3 25.9 24.7 2.81 2.79 -7
Wood Group O/W 900 1100 22 11.9 10.0 8.4 13.7 12.1 10.8 5.2 7.5 8.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 15.1 16.2 16.3 0.66 0.64 0
Arithmetic average 32 10.2 7.4 5.7 10.8 9.2 7.6 (2.6) 2.7 11.1 2.4 3.4 4.1 12.6 14.8 15.5 -8Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Dividend yield, %Barclays
2013Cons 2013
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 26
Valuations Services
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
-10-505
1015
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EV/EBIDA 2013 Average
-30-20-10
0102030
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
P/E 2013 Average
01234567
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
Dividend Yield, % 2013 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-10
-5
0
5
10
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
FCF Yield, % 2013 Average
05
101520253035
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
RoACE, % 2013 Average
-200-150-100
-500
50100150
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
2012 2013
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV:Capital Employed, x
-20
-10
0
10
20
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2013 Average
-100%100%300%500%700%900%
1100%
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EPS Growth 2013 Average
-4
1
6
11
16
A
K
S
O
A
M
E
C
G
G
H
T
G
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EV/Capital Employed 2013 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 27
Share price performance Services
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
SPMBrentAMCTEC
CGGPFC
SectorAKSO
PGSSUBWG
HTGSBMO
TREMT
-20 0 20 40 60 80
TREBrentCGGPFCTECWG
SectorSUBHTGAMCPGS
AKSOSPM
SBMOMT
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
SPMMT
SUBPFCPGSTRE
SectorCGGTEC
AMCBrentHTG
AKSOWG
SBMO
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Services vs US Services Amec vs European Services
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
SPMPFCMT
SectorSUBCGGPGS
AKSOBrentAMCTRETEC
HTGWG
SBMO
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
700
900
1100
1300
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13AMEC vs Sector AMEC, p
Aker Solutions vs European Services CGG Veritas vs European Services Maire Tecnimont vs European Services
405060708090100110120130
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13AKSO vs Sector AKSO, NOK
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13CGG vs Sector CGG, E
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1030507090
110130150170
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13MT vs Sector MT, E
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 28
Share price performance Services
Petrofac vs European Services PGS vs European Services Saipem vs European Services
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13PFC vs Sector PFC, p
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13PGS vs Sector PGS, NOK
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
10
30
50
70
90
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SPM vs Sector SPM, E
SBM Offshore vs European Services Subsea 7 vs European Services Technip vs European Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
406080
100120140160180200
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SBMO vs Sector SBMO, E
80
100
120
140
160
80859095
100105110115120125
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SUB vs Sector SUB, NOK
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13TEC vs Sector TEC, E
Tecnicas Reunidas vs European Services Wood Group vs European Services
30
32
34
36
38
40
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13TRE vs Sector TRE, E
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13WG vs Sector WG, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 29
Share price performance Services
Amec vs Wood Group Saipem vs Technip Petrofac vs Wood Group
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Maire Tecnimont vs Tecnicas Reunidas PGS vs CGG Veritas Petrofac vs Maire Tecnimont
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Petrofac vs Tecnicas Reunidas Subsea 7 vs Saipem Subsea 7 vs Technip
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
120
170
220
270
320
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 30
Share price performance Services Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6
Oil Services - EuropeAker 90 1.2 1.8 2.2 13.3 2.2 13.3 -24.4 -8.2 5.3 34.3 -16.4 60.1 12.4AMEC 1090 0.8 1.7 3.5 11.0 3.7 11.0 3.8 -1.7 -12.6 17.8 -11.2 25.5 15.8CGG Veritas 18.0 -0.4 -0.4 -4.7 8.9 -4.7 8.9 -19.2 -24.2 -7.1 28.7 -13.1 25.6 32.3Hunting 862 0.8 4.5 4.2 20.6 6.5 20.6 4.2 5.0 -6.5 17.9 -25.3 29.9 75.5Maire Tec 1.13 8.4 30.9 27.2 49.5 27.0 49.5 9.3 -10.7 -38.0 2.2 -1.7 -34.3 -59.0Petrofac 1275 1.0 0.5 0.1 9.0 -0.5 9.0 -25.0 -17.5 1.3 18.3 -21.7 24.1 29.9PGS 80.7 1.3 3.4 1.1 14.0 2.9 14.0 -19.4 -9.9 -0.5 36.2 -16.8 33.1 35.7Polarcus 5.27 4.2 7.8 6.8 11.4 8.4 11.4 -24.3 -8.2 5.1 58.0 -30.4 111.1 -27.6Saipem 16.0 0.8 -1.2 3.4 31.7 0.3 31.7 -44.7 -20.3 -21.0 8.3 -13.9 20.9 39.1SBM 15.40 -0.3 5.1 6.9 22.3 6.4 22.3 51.1 19.6 -4.9 3.3 -32.3 -1.3 45.3Subsea 7 113 1.0 2.1 1.7 11.2 2.6 11.2 -18.3 -1.4 0.1 17.2 -22.6 42.1 28.7Technip 83.5 -0.3 0.1 -1.3 9.9 1.2 9.9 -2.6 -10.3 0.0 7.0 -11.6 24.8 66.5Tecnicas 34.4 2.0 3.4 -5.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 -0.6 1.5 -1.8 11.5 0.3 15.4 -21.6TGS 188 2.5 2.5 1.2 11.3 0.5 11.3 -1.4 15.7 -2.6 21.6 -1.9 23.3 95.8Wood Group 900 0.0 2.4 2.2 13.8 2.2 13.8 18.3 11.4 -10.8 20.7 -6.1 14.9 109.1Arithmetic Average 1.5 4.1 3.1 15.2 3.8 15.2 -6.1 -3.9 -3.2 19.2 -15.1 27.7 27.9
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 31
Share price performance Services Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6Oil Services - U.S.Baker Hughes 47.4 -1.0 -2.0 -1.1 2.8 0.0 2.8 16.1 13.6 -9.3 10.0 -2.0 -13.8 16.6Basic Energy Systems 12.08 1.6 -2.0 -1.1 -0.1 5.6 -0.1 5.9 19.8 5.7 8.7 -40.5 -11.9 164.1Bristow Group 69.1 1.0 -0.2 0.7 5.8 1.6 5.8 28.7 22.9 6.9 24.3 -14.8 0.7 61.4Cameron Int 57.5 -0.8 -2.4 0.6 -6.0 -3.0 -6.0 1.9 15.5 1.0 31.3 -19.2 7.4 51.8CARBO 84.8 -0.9 -4.4 -3.7 25.8 -3.5 25.8 8.3 16.2 22.8 -18.0 -27.2 -14.5 68.8Chart industries 110.7 -1.7 -3.4 9.3 17.7 -2.6 17.7 66.0 20.0 -10.0 7.4 -6.2 35.6 250.4Core Laboratories 150.4 -0.4 -2.5 0.3 -0.8 0.5 -0.8 37.6 26.2 -9.4 4.8 -11.9 15.5 54.5Diamond Off 68.2 -1.0 0.4 0.4 -0.9 1.1 -0.9 0.4 2.4 2.3 11.3 -11.4 20.8 -13.4Dresser-Rand 61.4 0.1 -0.7 1.1 2.4 0.9 2.4 9.4 9.8 2.9 23.7 -4.0 -7.1 59.1Dril-Quip 101.7 -0.3 0.6 11.0 12.6 11.8 12.6 39.2 19.3 2.4 9.6 0.9 -1.2 49.5ENSCO 58.9 -0.3 0.7 0.0 1.3 2.6 1.3 -0.7 1.2 8.2 16.2 -11.3 12.8 16.8Exterran Holdings 28.3 -0.6 -11.5 -11.0 0.7 -10.8 0.7 29.2 23.2 8.0 59.1 -3.3 44.9 -64.9FMC Tech 53.9 0.0 -2.1 -1.1 -3.1 1.2 -3.1 25.9 27.0 -8.7 18.0 -22.2 -3.5 95.5Global Geophysical 3.33 -4.3 -21.5 -19.8 -29.4 -24.1 -29.4 -13.5 -36.4 -30.9 -10.0 -42.3 57.9 -2.0Gulfmark Offshore 48.9 -0.3 -2.9 0.1 8.5 -0.7 8.5 42.0 13.1 2.5 -2.9 -25.9 9.4 55.8Halliburton 46.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 10.3 1.9 10.3 32.7 16.5 3.0 18.7 -14.5 -3.8 38.2Helmerich & Payne 67.9 0.1 3.5 4.9 8.7 7.5 8.7 21.2 8.4 19.4 9.5 -19.4 -7.6 60.0Hercules Offshore 6.97 -0.7 -2.8 -5.3 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 13.0 20.3 26.4 37.7 -25.2 6.5 81.2Hornbeck Offshore 58.3 -0.5 -0.7 7.2 8.9 10.1 8.9 69.7 35.3 -7.1 -5.5 -7.7 35.5 102.7ION Geophysical 5.26 -5.9 -18.3 -13.1 -12.6 -14.5 -12.6 -19.2 4.6 -5.8 5.3 2.2 5.2 70.3Key Energy Ser 6.51 2.7 2.7 -4.5 9.4 2.7 9.4 -6.3 16.3 -0.3 -7.9 -50.8 -0.1 68.9Nabors 15.6 -0.4 -1.0 4.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 7.8 12.2 2.8 -2.6 -17.7 0.9 -1.6National Oilwell 72.5 -0.4 0.2 1.3 5.2 3.3 5.2 6.1 3.5 -15.1 24.3 -18.9 16.9 104.5Noble Corp. 39.9 1.4 0.4 3.5 6.2 4.5 6.2 14.6 9.6 -2.2 10.0 -13.2 24.0 -7.2Oceaneering 81.6 -0.9 -3.4 1.1 13.0 0.6 13.0 51.7 23.5 -1.9 15.4 -11.2 16.8 109.1Parker Drilling 6.14 1.3 0.8 -1.1 23.3 1.2 23.3 33.5 -7.0 7.2 -6.2 -24.5 -16.7 98.1Patterson-UTI 20.1 0.6 -0.9 0.0 3.8 1.6 3.8 7.8 28.0 18.4 8.7 -15.8 -13.5 53.2Rowan Comp 36.1 0.2 2.0 4.9 5.9 5.0 5.9 15.4 13.1 -6.7 4.5 -1.8 8.6 39.8Schlumberger 80.5 -0.9 -2.9 -1.7 12.3 -1.0 12.3 16.1 8.1 -4.5 11.4 -7.2 2.4 23.6Seacor 85.8 0.1 -2.1 0.0 3.3 -2.0 3.3 32.0 13.3 -3.2 -6.7 -6.7 7.7 27.4Seadrill 257 -0.3 0.5 5.1 9.4 2.7 9.4 20.2 -0.6 -9.1 10.0 -5.1 11.6 87.8Superior Energy 25.4 0.5 -3.2 -4.8 -2.0 -0.8 -2.0 22.6 25.3 2.3 1.4 -23.3 -7.3 52.2Tenaris 17.3 0.4 4.0 5.7 15.0 2.4 15.0 12.1 -0.9 -1.6 16.7 -8.1 2.7 5.9Tetra 11.35 0.4 9.5 11.2 10.6 12.2 10.6 49.5 35.2 22.8 -15.1 -24.3 0.9 7.1Thermon 19.5 1.9 -2.4 -6.0 -4.3 -2.4 -4.3 -13.4 -1.4 -11.8 20.7 1.3 16.1 NATidewater 55.9 -0.2 -8.1 -6.6 -1.9 -5.2 -1.9 25.1 13.0 -6.9 4.7 -14.2 9.6 28.6Transocean 47.5 -2.2 -1.7 -0.4 -0.9 0.7 -0.9 6.4 16.3 -3.4 0.4 -18.2 42.5 -21.5Weatherford 14.5 -0.1 0.2 5.2 6.0 4.0 6.0 29.8 8.5 -10.5 0.4 -16.3 3.1 10.7Arithmetic Average -0.3 -2.1 -0.1 4.4 0.5 4.4 19.6 13.0 0.2 9.2 -15.3 8.3 51.4
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 32
E&Ps
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 33
Valuations E&P - EuropeChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 09-Aug Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F NAV NAV last mnth
E&Ps - EuropeAfren O/W 144 210 46 2.7 3.6 4.4 7.0 5.8 4.9 4.7 1.1 (1.0) 3.1 (0.7) 1.7 210 189 1
Bowleven O/W 60.8 235 287 nm nm nm nm nm nm (6.9) (3.4) (0.9) (10) (2.2) (0.1) 235 181 6
Cairn Energy E/W 274 355 30 nm nm nm nm nm 7.2 (10) (20) (38) (37) (20) 16 355 366 0
Caracal Energy O/W 400 640 60 6.9 1.8 1.5 nm 3.6 3.0 (0.5) (0.3) (0.0) 7.4 24 16.1 640 - -
Enquest E/W 126 160 27 3.0 1.8 1.1 6.0 5.2 5.3 7.5 12.8 12.6 (8.0) (18.2) (25.3) 160 155 -2
Oryx Petroleum O/W 14.3 21.0 47 nm nm nm nm nm nm (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0) 0.2 0.6 21 20 -6
Premier Oil O/W 361 600 66 3.7 4.0 3.1 8.3 7.9 5.6 (2) (4.5) (1.5) 54 52 45 600 499 1
Rockhopper Exploration O/W 133 290 118 nm nm nm nm nm nm (2) (3.8) (4.1) (67) (63) (58) 290 328 -13
Salamander Energy O/W 119 275 131 3.0 2.9 2.7 7.0 5.6 5.5 (27) 0.9 16.5 55 47 31 275 244 -2
Soco International U/W 377 385 2 5.8 5.3 4.4 7.6 7.8 7.5 9.6 10.3 10.7 (28) (35) (41) 385 424 5
Tullow Oil O/W 1067 1500 41 12.2 12.6 14.9 29.9 29.6 34.9 (1.5) (4.2) (11.0) 25 37 65 1500 1286 -3
Arithmetic average 78 5.3 4.6 4.6 11.0 9.4 9.3 (2.6) (1.1) (1.6) (0) 1.9 4.7 -1Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
11.3 5.0
12.4 11.6
49.5 19.7
1.7
EV/2P+2Cx
6.4
-
23.0
-
10.2
5.9
- 2.0
19.5
15.7
10.5
12.7 6.0
9.6
24.6
23.0
21.5
Barclays 2013
Cons 2013
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Net Debt/Equity, %EV/2P
x
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 34
Valuations E&P - Europe
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Free cash flow yield, %
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
EV/EBIDA 2013 Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
P/E 2013 Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
FCF Yield, % 2013 Average
Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Dollar EPS Growth, y/y % EV:2P, x
-100%
-60%
-20%
20%
60%
100%
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
2012 2013
-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%
0%100%
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
EPS Growth 2013 Average
0102030405060
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
EV: 2P reserves 2013 Average
EV/2P+2C, x Datastream consensus relative to Barclays NAV, % ROACE, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
EV: 3P reserves 2013 Average
-20
-10
0
10
20
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2013 Average
-20%
0%
20%
40%
A
F
R
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
C
R
C
L
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
T
L
W
RoACE, % 2013 Average
Source: Datastream
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 35
Share price performance E&P - Europe
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
BrentBLVNENQ
PMODNO
SectorOXCAFR
SMDRRKHCNETLW
SIA
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
SMDRBLVNBrentTLWOXCENQ
SectorSIA
RKHCNEAFR
PMODNO
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
SMDRBLVNPMOENQOXC
SIACNERKH
SectorTLW
BrentAFR
Change in USD share price over last year, % European E&P vs Brent European E&P vs European market
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
SMDRRKHTLW
BLVNCNE
PMOSectorBrentENQSIA
AFRDNO
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Afren vs European E&P Bowleven vs European E&P Cairn Energy vs European E&P
40
80
120
160
200
405060708090
100110120130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13AFR vs Sector AFR, p
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13BLVN vs Sector BLVN, p
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13CNE vs Sector CNE, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 36
Share price performance E&P - Europe
Enquest vs European E&P Premier Oil vs European E&P Rockhopper Exploration vs European E&P
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13ENQ vs Sector ENQ, p
200
250
300
350
400
450
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13PMO vs Sector PMO, p
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
6065707580859095
100105
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13RKH vs Sector RKH, p
Salamander Energy vs European E&P Soco International vs European E&P Tullow Oil vs European E&P
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SMDR vs Sector SMDR, p
200
250
300
350
400
450
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13SIA vs Sector SIA, p
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13TLW vs Sector TLW, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 37
Share price performance E&P-Europe
Tullow Oil vs Cairn Energy Bowleven vs Salamander Energy Cairn Energy vs Premier Oil
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Tullow Oil vs Soco International Soco International vs Premier Oil Premier Oil vs Tullow Oil
30
50
70
90
110
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Afren vs Cairn Energy Afren vs Premier Oil Afren vs Soco International
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 38
Share price performance E&P - Europe & Israel Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6
E&P - EuropeAfren 144 2.1 2.1 8.1 13.7 8.3 13.7 4.8 1.0 -7.1 39.1 -23.7 60.0 11.3BowLeven 60.8 -0.6 1.3 -1.4 5.0 -1.2 5.0 -11.4 36.6 -16.3 36.1 -42.8 52.9 -45.2Cairn Energy 274 -0.4 3.0 3.9 10.9 4.3 10.9 -1.1 -3.5 -4.5 6.9 -19.5 10.6 -32.0Enquest 126 0.0 2.1 1.7 9.1 4.2 9.1 0.3 11.8 4.5 9.7 -16.2 40.2 -1.0Oryx Petroleum 14.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 4.5 -0.1 4.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPremier Oil 361 1.2 1.3 1.3 10.9 2.5 10.9 2.4 7.9 -7.1 9.3 -15.4 11.1 21.8Rockhopper Exploration 133 2.3 1.9 6.2 10.5 4.0 10.5 -17.6 -8.7 -10.1 -30.5 -23.0 25.1 -1.6Salamander Energy 119 0.0 2.3 -6.7 -15.3 2.2 -15.3 -40.1 2.2 -5.7 20.6 -4.0 9.5 -8.3Soco International 377 0.3 3.5 4.5 10.4 4.9 10.4 0.5 -2.0 7.4 17.4 -4.0 4.0 -21.7Tullow Oil 1067 2.3 1.6 5.2 9.1 5.3 9.1 -19.2 -8.8 -9.2 -4.1 -5.5 12.0 45.4Arithmetic Average 0.5 1.8 1.7 5.1 3.0 5.1 -8.6 3.4 -4.7 9.0 -18.4 30.7 10.7E&P - IsraelAvner 2.70 0.3 0.7 3.9 6.9 0.6 6.9 10.6 4.5 20.7 1.7 -18.2 6.3 48.3Delek Drilling 15.8 0.6 1.3 5.2 8.4 1.4 8.4 10.9 4.9 23.8 4.5 -18.8 1.5 51.1Delek Energy Systems 2015 -1.8 6.7 8.8 17.5 7.3 17.5 32.1 5.3 6.3 14.7 -19.8 6.0 62.3Isramco Negev 0.63 -0.3 -1.2 2.9 4.8 -1.5 4.8 10.6 9.1 31.0 1.3 -12.5 13.2 5.0Ratio Oil 0.38 4.4 4.8 8.8 16.9 7.4 16.9 18.0 0.3 29.7 -8.1 -22.6 9.1 64.2Arithmetic Average 0.6 2.5 5.9 10.9 3.0 10.9 16.5 4.8 22.3 2.8 -18.4 7.2 46.2
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
13 August 2013 39
Share price performance E&P US (Large Cap) Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6E&P - US (Large-Cap)Anadarko 89.8 -0.8 -0.7 1.5 4.5 1.4 4.5 20.8 17.7 5.2 5.6 -15.5 2.6 105.4Apache 83.2 0.0 1.5 1.4 -0.8 3.7 -0.8 6.0 -1.7 -9.2 -1.6 -12.5 10.9 8.2Canadian Natural Res 31.4 -0.7 -3.4 -2.6 8.5 -1.6 8.5 6.0 11.5 -8.9 15.1 -19.0 -11.7 12.8Canadian Oil Sands 20.5 0.9 0.3 0.8 7.8 2.6 7.8 -1.8 1.8 -3.8 10.6 -8.1 -7.8 -10.0Cenovus Energy 29.9 1.6 -1.7 -1.9 2.0 -2.0 2.0 -13.3 -7.4 -5.2 9.8 -11.6 8.1 29.0Devon 58.5 -0.3 4.5 4.8 12.8 6.3 12.8 12.4 8.4 -14.4 4.3 -18.5 14.7 2.2Encana 17.5 0.3 -0.7 -3.0 3.3 -0.1 3.3 -11.4 -1.5 -13.2 5.2 6.0 6.0 -39.2EOG Resources 159 0.2 3.8 9.0 20.6 9.2 20.6 31.5 6.0 5.8 24.3 -18.9 12.8 -0.6Kosmos 10.1 -0.9 -5.3 -7.8 -0.7 -4.5 -0.7 -18.3 -8.5 7.4 3.1 -16.5 8.0 NANewfield Exploration 24.7 0.4 0.4 -0.5 3.2 0.2 3.2 -8.0 -16.3 -14.7 6.9 -15.5 -8.1 -21.1Noble 63.8 -0.2 -1.7 0.6 6.3 2.1 6.3 25.5 13.7 10.3 9.3 -13.3 3.6 54.2Occidental 88.3 -0.2 -0.7 -2.7 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 15.2 2.3 -11.3 0.3 -9.9 1.6 22.1QEP Resources 29.5 -1.8 -2.5 -3.1 6.2 -3.2 6.2 -2.5 5.2 -5.6 5.6 -1.7 4.1 0.0Pioneer Natural 176 -0.4 -3.1 13.5 21.3 13.5 21.3 64.8 16.6 2.6 18.4 -21.0 24.7 51.9Range Resources 79.5 -0.5 -2.3 -1.2 2.8 0.5 2.8 26.5 29.0 -10.8 12.9 6.4 -6.1 54.1Southwestern Energy 37.5 -0.6 -3.0 -4.7 2.6 -3.4 2.6 12.2 11.5 -5.5 8.9 4.3 -4.2 -17.7Talisman 11.6 1.0 -0.1 -4.1 -1.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.7 8.2 -16.8 16.7 -8.8 -1.6 -15.8Ultra Petroleum 22.0 0.0 -1.6 3.5 11.0 1.6 11.0 21.3 10.9 -21.0 -4.7 1.9 -23.6 -33.4WPX Energy 19.2 -1.2 -0.1 -1.8 1.2 -0.3 1.2 28.8 7.7 -13.2 2.5 -10.2 -0.9 NAArithmetic Average -0.2 -0.9 0.1 5.8 1.3 5.8 11.3 6.0 -6.4 8.1 -9.6 1.7 11.9
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
26643Rectangle
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Share price performance E&P US (Mid Cap) Local Price
09-Aug -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3502 0.6 0.9 1.8 9.0 2.2 9.0 8.2 2.1 2.5 6.8 -5.5 8.0 18.2StoxxEuro 286 0.2 1.3 3.9 11.8 3.0 11.8 11.1 -0.6 7.3 9.3 -12.7 12.3 -2.4S&P 500 1691 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 5.3 0.3 5.3 18.6 10.0 -1.3 5.8 -3.3 12.0 22.4MSCI EMG 1768 0.2 0.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 7.9 10.2 4.4 5.2 6.1 -8.4 10.0 5.6E&P - US (Mid-Cap)ARC Resources 25.2 -0.3 -5.1 -3.5 -6.3 -3.0 -6.3 -0.4 7.6 -0.7 8.1 -2.0 -7.1 32.9Baytex Energy 41.7 0.1 -2.5 -2.7 12.5 -0.3 12.5 -6.1 -2.7 -9.8 12.9 -18.8 -7.4 87.2Bonavista Energy 13.0 0.8 0.9 -2.0 -2.2 1.0 -2.2 -15.0 -1.2 -17.1 13.5 -22.7 -21.1 19.4Chesapeake 25.0 0.0 0.2 9.4 22.7 7.3 22.7 50.4 22.8 -13.8 1.5 -19.7 3.9 7.1Cimarex 80.5 0.9 0.9 6.7 23.8 5.3 23.8 39.4 30.7 -1.1 6.2 -27.0 21.9 -11.7Comstock 16.1 -0.1 -4.9 -11.0 2.2 -4.1 2.2 6.3 7.5 -21.5 11.9 3.7 3.5 -44.0Concho Resources 98.5 0.7 4.2 13.1 17.7 9.8 17.7 22.3 20.9 -17.4 11.3 -16.6 8.9 73.5Crescent Point 39.7 2.5 1.9 2.9 14.0 1.7 14.0 2.0 -0.1 -15.6 18.7 -13.2 -2.6 26.2Crimson Exploration 3.2 -0.3 0.0 -2.1 13.1 -0.6 13.1 16.4 4.4 -36.0 -7.0 10.6 45.1 10.9Denbury Resources 17.5 1.1 -2.2 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.2 8.1 15.1 -1.3 6.9 -17.1 20.7 4.1Enerplus 17.6 4.2 2.9 4.3 15.8 5.1 15.8 31.6 12.8 -23.4 29.1 -42.6 -12.0 18.0Exco Resources 7.84 1.2 -10.5 -7.8 2.6 -9.6 2.6 15.8 5.3 -18.8 5.5 14.5 -36.6 -29.9Forest Oil 5.13 0.4 -0.2 2.0 25.4 0.2 25.4 -23.3 -21.4 -21.8 15.3 -39.5 -10.6 -29.6Pengrowth Energy 5.95 2.2 0.8 -0.6 17.9 0.3 17.9 16.2 2.6 -26.9 6.3 -32.3 -11.5 15.5Penn West Petroleum 12.7 4.6 1.8 1.8 17.2 4.3 17.2 13.7 -0.9 -23.5 6.1 -31.3 -1.7 3.9Penn Virginia 23.5 -0.9 -8.3 -12.6 -13.9 -9.2 -13.9 -9.5 -7.2 3.6 3.6 12.2 -14.5 23.0Petrobakken Energy NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPeyto Exp 27.8 1.5 -4.4 -2.8 -6.4 -6.1 -6.4 16.9 14.9 -7.0 30.4 15.2 -31.6 74.9Plains Exp NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAProgress Energy NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAQuicksilver 1.65 0.0 5.8 5.1 -1.8 13.8 -1.8 -42.3 -21.3 -31.7 -24.5 7.5 -24.9 -40.1Resolute 8.39 -0.1 -3.7 2.7 5.1 0.2 5.1 3.2 41.6 -8.7 -7.3 -15.9 5.4 -13.3Sandridge 5.30 -1.5 -5.7 -0.9 11.3 -2.2 11.3 -16.5 -17.0 -9.7 4.3 -14.6 -4.0 37.8SM Energy 68.0 0.1 -3.6 3.0 13.3 -1.1 13.3 30.2 13.4 -3.8 10.2 -30.6 -3.2 82.1Stone Energy 28.1 2.1 11.2 13.7 27.7 15.5 27.7 37.1 6.0 -17.0 -0.9 -11.4 8.4 133.9Swift Energy 11.9 0.7 -1.2 -8.6 -0.4 -6.3 -0.4 -22.4 -3.8 -27.0 12.2 -35.9 -2.3 11.9Trilogy Energy 28.8 -0.6 0.0 -3.5 -6.2 -1.3 -6.2 -4.5 -1.4 9.4 13.0 -12.5 -28.5 323.0Vermilion Energy 56.9 0.3 -1.3 5.1 13.4 3.1 13.4 5.8 -0.8 11.1 4.1 -2.1 3.3 40.8W&T Offshore 15.6 -0.4 -8.3 -5.3 9.2 -4.2 9.2 -2.6 -11.4 -15.9 22.7 -27.4 -0.6 130.8Whiting PTL 51.0 -0.1 -3.2 0.0 10.7 -0.9 10.7 17.6 17.2 -7.9 15.2 -24.3 16.3 20.6Arithmetic Average 0.7 -1.3 0.2 8.9 0.7 8.9 7.1 4.9 -13.1 8.5 -14.6 -3.1 37.4
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
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Global Emerging Market Oils
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Valuations GEM Change in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 09-Aug Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Integrated - RussiaAlliance Oil E/W 46.2 62.0 34 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.4 (17) 34 28 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 12.5 12.5 2.49 1.58 -12
Bashneft E/W 58.9 71.0 21 4.3 3.6 3.6 5.9 5.0 5.2 11.0 15.2 15.6 8.5 10.1 9.7 24.3 23.0 23.0 10.00 8.51 -1
Gazprom O/W 7.7 9.0 16 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.4 5.5 6.3 4.8 9.4 9.2 10.1 8.4 8.4 1.47 1.31 -6
Gazprom Neft O/W 18.4 25.0 36 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.2 5.4 (7.7) (0.0) 7.6 8.2 7.8 18.0 13.6 13.6 1.12 1.11 2
Lukoil O/W 58.3 74.0 27 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.0 3.9 4.2 0.5 2.0 0.5 5.8 6.7 7.7 13.2 10.1 10.1 14.70 13.74 0
Novatek O/W 114.4 140.0 22 10.7 8.2 7.2 11.5 9.0 8.2 3.0 4.7 5.7 2.6 3.3 3.1 24.0 24.7 24.7 1.00 0.89 0
Rosneft O/W 7.1 10.0 41 4.0 3.9 3.8 5.6 5.9 6.6 4.1 9.7 12.0 4.4 4.3 3.8 11.8 8.9 8.9 1.26 1.31 -2
Surgutneftegas U/W 7.7 9.6 25 (0.7) (0.7) (1.0) 5.4 5.4 5.4 17.2 9.4 13.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 16.2 15.2 15.2 0.14 0.16 4
Tatneft U/W 37.6 42.0 12 4.1 3.4 2.7 5.2 4.3 4.0 6.3 11.6 21 3.9 4.6 5.0 17.8 18.9 18.9 1.21 1.14 -1
Arithmetic average 26 3.9 3.3 3.1 5.1 4.5 4.6 3.8 9.4 11.4 4.5 5.4 5.4 16.5 15.0 15.0 -2
Integrated - OtherPetrobras E/W 14.3 20.0 40 6.1 5.8 5.5 6.3 6.0 5.3 (20) (15) (10) 5.2 5.4 5.1 6.8 7.2 7.2 2.25 1.91 -9
Sasol E/W 463.1 430.0 (7) 8.1 7.7 6.7 10.0 9.5 8.4 4.2 4.8 6.5 3.4 3.7 4.0 24.0 23.2 23.2 46.54 45.19 2
Arithmetic average 16 7.1 6.7 6.1 8.1 7.7 6.9 (7.9) (4.9) (1.7) 4.3 4.5 4.6 15.4 15.2 15.2 -4
ServicesC.A.T. Oil E/W 13.1 8.0 (39) 7.6 6.7 5.4 3.8 2.9 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 12.3 12.3 0.72 0.77 4
COSL E/W 17.8 18.7 5 2.9 2.7 2.7 13.3 13.0 12.7 9 10 10 1.5 1.5 1.6 8.4 7.4 7.4 1.34 1.49 -1
Eurasia Drilling O/W 40.0 42.0 5 6.3 5.1 3.6 nm nm nm 8.3 10 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 18.0 18.0 3.66 2.99 -1
Integra O/W 10.8 4.5 (58) 11.4 9.0 7.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 4 6 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 21.8 21.8 0.37 -3.17 13
Arithmetic average (22) 7.0 5.9 4.8 5.8 5.3 5.0 5.5 6.6 7.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 13.3 14.9 14.9 4
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
FCF yield, %Barclays
2013Cons 2013
RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
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Valuations GEM
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
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EV/EBIDA 2013 Average
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-10-505
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