Transcript
Page 1: Global BRT (Bus Rapid Transit ) Market

Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market

Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and Advanced BRT Solutions

Global

NA5E-18

March 2012

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Bharani Lakshminarasimhan Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation

+91 44 66814122

[email protected]

Ryan Carmichael Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation

+1.416.490.1274

[email protected]

Research Team

Analyst

Program Director

Sandeep Kar Global Director, Automotive & Transportation

+1.416.490.7796

[email protected]

Sarwant Singh Partner, Automotive & Transportation

+44 207 915 7843

[email protected]

Strategic Review Committee Leader

Analyst

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Contents

Section Slide Numbers

Executive Summary 6

Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed 20

BRT Systems Market – Overview and Definition 26

Bus Rapid Transit Systems – Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis 30

a. BRT Standard 32

b. BRT Bus Standard 33

c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard 34

d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis 35

e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs 37

f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT 39

Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems 41

a. Market Drivers and Restraints 42

b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems 47

c. Global BRT Vehicle Market—Value Chain Analysis 50

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Contents

Section Slide Numbers

Total Market Measurements 51

a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast 52

b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast 54

c. Global BRT Vehicle – Bus Length Configuration Forecast 56

d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise 57

Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market– Regional Profiles 59

a. Latin America 60

b. China 68

c. India 75

d. Europe 84

e. North America 92

f. Rest of World 99

BRT Systems – Need Evaluation and Analysis 108

a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market 109

b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis 111

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Contents

Section Slide Numbers

BRT systems – Design, Development and Implementation process 114

a. BRT Evolution 115

b. BRT System Design and Implementation 116

c. Service Design 118

d. Operational Model 119

e. BRT Cost Structure 120

f. BRT Financing Models 121

g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT 122

h. Integrated Mobility 123

BRT Vehicle Analysis 125

Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion 133

a. Key Research Findings 134

b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 135

Appendix 137

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Executive Summary

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Executive Summary—Key Findings

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of

implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle

purchase and replacement demand as well. 1

2 The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America

and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market.

3 Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018.

Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018.

4 Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative

fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018.

5 By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines

across the world.

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Executive Summary—BRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT – Bus Rapid Transit is

Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers

in Both Developed and Developing World

• Non Regulated

Operators

• Taxi Like

Services

• Segregated

Bus Ways

• On-Board

fare

collection

• Standard

vehicles and

stations

• Segregated

bus ways

• Pre-board fare

collection and

verification

• Higher Quality

Stations

• Clean vehicle

Technology

• Open BRT

system with no

cap on

operators

• Integrated Routes (Feeder routes connecting the central trunk line)

• Closed, high quality Stations

• Flexible frequencies

• Variable services(All Stop and Express)

Informal

Services

Conventional

Services

Busways

BRT Lite

Full BRT

• On-Board Fare

Collection

• Poor Customer

Service

• Often

subsidized

operations

Evolution of BRT Services

Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Executive Summary—Global BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally

Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation

New BRT systems in the

planning phase

Existing BRT with expansion

plans

Latin America

North America China-India

Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research for Overall Public

Experience in Relation to Transport Mode

Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe

2 New York

1 Total

7 Rio de Janeiro

3 Seattle

4 Los Angeles

5 San Francisco

6 Mexico City

8 Copenhagen

10 Paris

11 Frankfurt

12 Moscow

13 Dubai

9 London

14 Cairo

15 Johannesburg

16 Beijing

17 Shanghai

18 Seoul

19 Tokyo

20 New Delhi

21 Kuala Lumpur

22 Singapore

23 Jakarta

24 Sydney JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities

Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher

share of individual transport

1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23 24

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Share Public Transport

Sh

are

In

div

idu

al T

ran

sp

ort

Car

focused

cities

Public transport

focused cities

n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index))

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Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution

Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public

Transit

Reasons for Frustration

Individual Transport

31% 24% 29% 37%

12%13% 11%

13%11%

12% 9%

11%14%

14% 14%

13%

32% 37% 37%26%

Total Americas EMEA APAC

Overcrowding Traffic Speed Other No frustrations

Reasons for Frustration

Public Transport

4%3%

4%

4%11%

9%10%

12%

53%65% 56%

42%

32%22% 30%

42%

Total Americas EMEA APAC

Traffic Speed Other No frustrations

Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system.

1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region:

In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between

the two modes is the smallest.

Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public

transport

Q28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip?

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0

1

2

3

4

5

Passenger Information System

[5], [4.5], [2]

Environmental Footprint

[5], [4], [2]

Route Flexibility

[1], [4], [5]

Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3]

Capital Expenditure

[1], [4.5], [5]

Network (Distance)

[2], [4], [5]

Flexible Frequency

[5], [5], [2]

Journey experience

[5], [4.5], [2] Off Vehicle Fare Collection

[5], [4.5], [2]

Light Rail BRT Conventional Bus

Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus]

Total Ratings:

Light Rail – 34

BRT – 39 Conventional Bus - 29

Executive Summary—Comparison with Other Transit Solutions

BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus

Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Urban

Rail

BRT Conventional

Bus Systems

Car Sharing

Bike Sharing

Bicycle

Walking

Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High

Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation Options

• Subways and heavy metro systems are

available in city centers in urban areas.

• Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000

pphpd.

• Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000

to 5,000 pphpd.

• Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation

options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity.

Ideal capacity of 10,000-

15,000 pphpd to bridge the

gap.

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd)

Urban

Transportation

Puzzle

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0

200

400

600

2011 2018

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2011 2018

0

200

400

600

800

2011 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2011 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2011 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2011 2018

North America

Europe

Latin America

India

China

Rest of World

Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018

Executive Summary—Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian,

North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Base Year, End Year

CAGR

17 %

CAGR

17.8 %

CAGR

5.8 %

CAGR

22.1 %

CAGR

6.9 %

CAGR

5.6 %

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018

Executive Summary—Global BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking

Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation

2018

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Europe China India Rest ofWorld

Altenate Fuel Diesel

2011

2018 Regional Shares

4,341

7,874

93.2 %

79.6 %

20.4 %

6.8 %

14.9 %

85.1 %

59.5 %

40.5 % 64.7 %

74.0 % 35.3 %

26.0 %

13.0 %

87.0 % 92.0%

8.0 %

• Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as

concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors.

• North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain

technologies. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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BRT Applicability

Direct Service Trunk Service

Length Configuration

12 m

18 m

24 m

BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with

Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service

Compared to Direct Service

High Low

Standard 12m

Articulated

Bi-articulated

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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BRT Standard: Segregated Bus Ways with Level Boarding Stations Considered Best Fit for

Efficient BRT Operations; Migration of Operation Model in China and India Towards Closed

System Compelling Bus OEMs to Focus on Product Competitiveness

Tru

nk

an

d

Feed

er

Serv

ice

Dir

ec

t S

erv

ice

Clo

se

d

Op

era

tio

n

Op

en

Op

era

tio

ns

Pu

bli

c

Op

era

tio

ns

Seg

reg

ate

d

Part

iall

y S

eg

reg

ate

d

Le

ve

l B

oa

rdin

g

No

n L

eve

l B

oa

rdin

g

Station Interface Bus ways Operational Model Service Design

Co

mb

ina

tio

n

Strong Trend Towards 2018 Moderate Trend Towards 2018

Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Standard Overview (Global), 2011-2018

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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What Makes Frost & Sullivan Unique?

All services aligned on growth to help clients develop and implement

innovative growth strategies

More than 40 global offices ensure that clients gain global perspective to

mitigate risk and sustain long term growth

Continuous monitoring of industries and their convergence, giving clients

first mover advantage in emerging opportunities

Bottom up research methodology based on 80% of research generated

through primary interviews providing a full 360° view of the industry

Case-based profiles that help executives use best-in-class approaches

to address strategic, organizational and operational issues

Our Mega Trends team helps clients understand the sub trends and,

through a well proven methodology of macro-to-micro, supports

evaluating and identifying opportunities

Industry

Coverage

Best Practices

360° Perspective

Macro-to-micro

Method

Focused on

Growth

Global Footprint

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Our Industry Coverage

Aerospace and Defense Infrastructure Information and

Communication Technologies

Healthcare Environment and Building

Technologies

Energy and Power

Systems

Chemicals, Materials

and Food

Electronics and

Security

Industrial Automation

and Process Control

Automotive

Transportation and Logistics

Consumer

Technologies

Minerals and Mining

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Our Global Footprint 40+ Offices in 30 Countries - Scanning the Globe

for Opportunities and Innovation


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