Examining Urban Decay in
PhiladelphiaMac Ferrick, Paige Geist, Will Dorfman
GEOG372
Defined as the process of a city falling into economic and social despair.
What is urban decay?
● Growth of the suburbs after World War II
● Movement of jobs outside of the city● Deindustrialization● White Flight/Redlining● War on Drugs and Subsequent Crime
Main causes of decay in the US
● Land area: 135 square miles● Population: 1,553,165● Average home value: $147,569● Median annual income: $37,016● Poverty Rate: 26.2%
Philadelphia County Key Figures
Source: US Census Bureau American Fact Finder (2013); Select Greater Philadelphia (2010)
● Philadelphia defines an area to be experiencing urban decay as meet at least one of the following criteria:o Unsafe, unsanitary and inadequate
conditions; economically or socially undesirable land use; and faulty street and lot layout
● Urban renewal projects indicate the presence of urban decay
Urban Decay in Philadelphia
● Urban renewal based on federal and state laws
● Decision Makers:o Philadelphia Redevelopment Authorityo Philadelphia City Planning Commissiono Philadelphia City Council & Mayoro United States Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD)● Determine areas for redevelopment,
prepare plans, and select developers
Redevelopment Process
● Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)o Purpose is to turn over vacant, foreclosed
properties into owner-occupied dwellingso Determined based on historical
foreclosure data, indications of predatory lending, and the impact of vacancies on surrounding home values
● Received $16.8 million in funding from HUD
Urban Renewal Programs
● Determine the underlying cause of socioeconomic challenges in Philadelphia County
● Determine if current redevelopment projects are targeting the correct areas
Research Purpose
● What is the correlation between home value and percent vacancies?
● What is the correlation between vacancies and homicides?
● Is urban decay widespread or is it concentrated in certain neighborhoods?
Key Questions
● Homicides● Home vacancy percentage per
census tract● Median Household Income● Poverty
Factors Considered
● Georeferencing census tracts● “Join” data (percent vacant and
median home value) to census tract file
● “Display XY Values” for homicides● Perform a Hot Spot Analysis to
present homicide data● Overlay areas for urban renewal
Methodology
Total number of homicides (2010): 403
● Homicide hotspots in North Philadelphia and section of Southwest Philadelphia
● Coldspots in Center City, Northeast Philadelphia, and Northwest Philadelphia
● Little correlation between hotspots and urban renewal areas
Findings
● Vacancies are concentrated in North Philadelphia and portions of West Philadelphia
● Fewest vacancies are found in Northeast Philadelphia
● Outlier in Northeast Philadelphia● Stronger correlation between vacancy
percentage and urban renewal areas
Findings
● Highest home values concentrated in Center City and Northwest Philadelphia
● Lowest home values are found in North Philadelphia and West Philadelphia
● Little correlation between home value and urban renewal
Findings
● Poverty concentrated in North Philadelphia and West Philadelphia
● Somewhat strong correlation between poverty and urban renewal areas
● Strong correlation between homicide hotspot and poverty, especially in North Philadelphia
Findings
● Access to data● Various outliers● Presence of universities (UPenn,
Drexel)● Measurement criteria into the
effectiveness of urban renewal programs
Limitations
● Urban renewal project are partially targeting the right areas
● There are areas that are both within and outside of urban renewal zones that are still suffering the consequences of urban decay
● Based on our findings, the areas marked for urban renewal need to be reexamined to take into account factors other than the criteria determined by the city
Conclusions
● Look at correlation between decay and other crimes, especially drug-related crimes
● Look at the lasting impact of redlining using historical data
● Conduct a longitudinal study to see how decay has evolved over time
Possible Further Analysis
● http://www.phila.gov/CityPlanning/plans/communityplans/Pages/BlightandRedevelopmentReports.aspx● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml● http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia.com/regional-data/county-data/philadelphia/● http://www.opendataphilly.org/opendata/resource/34/redevelopment-certified-areas/● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html
Sources