Genetically Modified Crops and Agricultural Development
Matin Qaim
Seminar at UC Davis,7 November 2016
Palgrave Macmillan, 2016
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Why more agricultural technology?
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1. Environmental problems of agricultural production
2. Existing food insecurity
3. Growing global demand and resource scarcity
4. Many of the poor in Africa and Asia depend on small-scale farming as the key source of income
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Common approaches in plant breeding Mass selection
Backcrossing
Wide crosses
Hybridization
Mutagenesis
Marker-assisted selection
Protoplast fusion
Agrobacterium-mediated gene transfer
Biolistics
Genome editing (CRISPR/Cas etc.)
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“Conventional breeding”
“Genetic engineering (GMOs)”
(“natural” and “safe”)
(“unnatural” and “risky”)
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GMOs: controversial topic The public and policy debate is primarily focused on risks Regulatory procedures were put in place that treat GMOs very
differently from other technologies However, 30 years of research and 20 years of commercial
experience have shown that GM crops are not more risky than conventionally bred crops
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This conclusion was drawn by:• WHO • Union of German Academies of Science • Brazilian Academy of Sciences
• FAO • British Royal Society • Mexican Academy of Sciences
• OECD • British Medical Association • Indian Academy of Sciences
• European Research Directorate • French Academy of Sciences • Chinese Academy of Sciences
• EASAC (European Academies) • French Academy of Medicine • Nuffield Council on Bioethics
• International Council for Science • National Academy of Sciences (USA) • Etc.
The public has not taken note of this scientific evidence
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Beyond risks, what do we know about GM crop impacts?
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Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Milli
on h
a
Total
Developing countries
Global area cultivated with GMOs
Source: James (2015).
Only two modified traits:1. Herbicide tolerance
2. Insect resistance
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Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Impact studies Many impact studies carried out over the last 20 years: Focusing on different countriesWith different types of dataWith different methodologiesWith different results
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GMO supporters and opponents refer to their “preferred studies” in the debate, leading to further polarization
Meta-analysis can be useful to: Draw broader lessons from the cumulated evidence Explain reasons for heterogeneity in impacts
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Global meta-analysis of GM crop impacts
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Klümper and Qaim (2014, PLoS ONE)
21.6***
-36.9***
3.3
68.2***
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Crop yield(n=451)
Pesticide quantity(n=121)
Production cost(n=115)
Farmer profit(n=136)
Perc
ent
*, **, *** means significant at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Distribution of GM yield effects
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0.0
05.0
1.0
15.0
2D
ensi
ty
-50 0 50 100change in yield (%)
Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014).
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Meta-analysis
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(1) All GM crops
(2) Insect resistance
(3) Herbicide tolerance (HT)
Yield 21.6*** 24.9*** 9.3**
Pesticide quantity -36.9*** -41.7*** 2.4
Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014).
Breakdown by type of technology
• HT has helped to reduce soil tillage and GHG emissions
• In some regions, weed resistance to glyphosate has reduced the benefits of HT crops over time
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Breakdown by geographical regions
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Yield Pesticide Farmer profit
Developing country (dummy) 14.17*** -19.16*** 59.52***
N 451 193 136
Meta-regression results (percentage point effects)
Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014).
Developing-country farmers benefit more because:
1. They suffer more from pest and disease problems
2. Most GM technologies are not patented there, so that seed prices are cheaper than in developed countries
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
What do we know about GM crop impacts in a small farm
context?
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mill
ion
ha
13
Bt cotton adoption in India
In 2015: 11.6 m ha (97%)
Grown by around 8 million smallholders
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Impact analysis with panel dataSurvey of 530 farm households in: • Maharashtra• Andhra Pradesh• Karnataka• Tamil Nadu
Survey carried out four times between 2002 and 2009
Statistical differencing techniques to control for biases
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Bt impact on insecticide use
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Source: Krishna and Qaim (2012).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Conventional2002-2004
Bt 2002-2004 Bt 2006-2008 Conventional2006-2008
Activ
e in
gred
ient
(kg
/ha)
-50%-37%
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Bt impact on yield and farmer profit in India
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Yield (kg/ha)
Profit($/ha)
Bt effect 311***(+24%)
94***(+50%)
Change over time 0 / + 0 / +
Sources: Kathage and Qaim (2012), Qaim and Kouser (2013).
Householdconsumption value (US$)
Calorie consumption (kcal/person)
Calories from high-value food
(kcal/person)
Bt effect 321**(+18%)
145***(+5%)
47***(+7%)
Bt impact on household living standard
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Household income effects per ha of cotton
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-Extremely poor Moderately poor Non poorAll households
BtConventional
US$
/ha
$246/hax 11.6 m = $2.9 billion Source: Subramanian and
Qaim (2010).
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Sources: Kathage and Qaim (2012), Qaim and Kouser (2013).
Total Tox I Tox II Tox III & IV
Bt effect (2002-2004) -2.74*** -1.38* -1.21* -0.15
Bt effect (2006-2008) -4.42*** -2.67*** -1.63*** -0.15*
Environmental and health effects of BtEffects on pesticide use by toxicity class (per ha)
Source: Kouser and Qaim (2011),
Cases per ha Cases in total India (million)
Bt effect -0.26*** -2.98***
Effects on cases of acute pesticide poisoning
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Effects on varietal diversity
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Farm level Village level District level State level
Num
ber
2002 2004 2006 2008
Mean number of cotton varieties grown by sample farms
Source: Krishna, Qaim, Zilberman (2016).
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Future prospects Evidence suggests that GM crops can be beneficial for
farmers, consumers, and the environment.
So far, very limited range of GM technologies. Future technologies could be much more beneficial.
Many interesting GM technologies tested in the field: Drought-tolerant and salt-tolerant maize, rice, and wheat Maize and rice with higher nitrogen use efficiency Micronutrient-rich rice, sorghum, cassava, and banana Pest- and disease-resistant rice, cassava, pulses, vegetables Etc.
Will these technologies ever be commercialized?
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Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Threat of overregulationMany countries in Africa and Asia have established EU-style regulatory systems that are stricter and more politicized than for any other agricultural technology.
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Regulatory procedure in the EU form GMO approval Application/ regulatory dossier reviewed by EFSA Based on EFSA opinion, EU Commission prepares proposal
for or against approval of the technology Proposal discussed in member country committee If committee agrees, proposal adopted by EU Commission;
otherwise, Council of Agricultural Ministers gets involved Without qualified majority in the Council, the case is
returned to the Commission
Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Example of Bt/HT maize in Europe In 2000, Pioneer applied for approval of maize 1507 in EU EU moratorium for any approvals between 2000-2003 In 2004, EFSA asked Pioneer for additional data; first
positive EFSA opinion in 2005 In 2006, Commission asked for additional data; second
positive EFSA opinion in 2006 Additional data requested several times; up till now, maize
1507 received seven positive EFSA opinions In 2013, EU Commission issued proposal for approval In 2014, EU Parliament passed resolution not to adopt
proposal: “long-term effects of maize 1507 are unclear” Maize 1507 not yet approved in EU For comparison, maize 1507 approved in USA in 2001
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Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Effects of overregulation
Fuels public notion that GM crops are dangerous Makes technology unnecessarily expensive (regulatory
procedure can easily cost applicant >30 million EUR) Contributes to industry concentration (multinationals) Contributes to focus on large countries (regulatory approval
required in every country) Contributes to focus on crops and traits with large
commercial potential Even humanitarian projects suffer from the same hurdles
(who is willing to finance such costly regulatory procedures with uncertain outcomes?)
EU anti-biotech attitudes have far-reaching global implications
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Georg-August-UniversitätGöttingen
Conclusion GMOs are not a panacea, but there is strong evidence that
they can contribute to sustainable development
Like for any technology, there are certain issues that need to be addressed, but a GMO ban (as effectively observed in Europe and other regions) has no scientific basis
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We need: More integrity in GMO debate Reform of regulatory policies More public research and
competition in the plant biotech industry
Further reading:
Palgrave Macmillan, 2016