GBPUSD: Last weeks high reached 1.6470
from the months low of 1.5780, the current
strength is expected to slow with this weeks
BOE rate statement on the docket and no
interest rate hike insight, the next level up for
resistance is 1.6550 and from there we have
the May high of 1.6740 area, we expect a
decline from current levels before another
move up towards the highs.
Recommendation: Current short term picture
looks like we may have a topping region in
place, we are looking for a short entry trigger
around 1.6350-1.6400, with targets at
1.6190-1.6100. Keep stop above 1,6450.
This is a risky play, safe play is wait for move
down and look for next long after a higher low
has been created above 1.5780. The med
term picture looks like another test of 1.6700
before the next major break. Of course all can
change with the US debts ceiling Vote.
The markets are trading thin volume summer
months with high volatility, so much for slow
summer trading. With the US debt Vote early
this week, expect a volatile week. Looking at
the environment we are in, we suggest to
keep your trades short term, reduce your risk,
with the daily fluctuations in a wide range
gives opportunity to take good size moves of
100+ pips inside of a few days in both
directions. Keep an eye on fundamentals in
the US and Europe when taking your trades
considering the markets are making moves
based on these to major economies. This
week will be a historical week with the US
debt ceiling vote, consider that when you
place your trades. All technical's can be
violated when unexpected economic events
happen.
Fundamental Outlook
UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar
Elite Global
Trading Forex Weekly Commentary
July 31st –Aug 6th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
In this issue:
Fundamental
GBPUSD
1
EURUSD
AUDUSD
GBPJPY
NZDUSD
2
EURJPY
EURCAD
EURCHF
GBPCHF
3
Event Risk 4
Contact Info
Disclaimer
5
EURUSD: Current short term picture over the
next week looks to possible make a bearish
move down to the 1.4000 level. With a short
term high in place around 1.4500 we look for
short opportunities using stops above
1.4450. We have strong resistance at 1.4450
and 1.4500. A break of those levels the
uptrend will resume to new highs above
1.4600. On the downside look for support
around 1.4270 1.4200 1.4100 and stronger
support at 1.4000.
Recommendation: Short term Bearish Bias,
we are looking for a short signal this week
around 1.4400-1.4350, targeting 1.4250,
1.4200, and final target at 1.4100. Keep
stops above 1.4450 and trail with tight risk as
targets are hit.
Euro / US Dollar
Elite Global
Trading
July 31st –Aug 6th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
AUDUSD: Has last week reached all time
highs with desire to pusher higher in the
weeks to come. Current objective point on
long side is 1.1150 area. A break to that
region may happen early this week, a deeper
pullback is expected or consolidation is
expected ahead of a move higher to the
1.1300-1.1400 region.
Recommendation: Bullish Bias look for entry
to the 1.1150 area. Expect a deeper pullback
after that objective is achieved. Support
1.0958, 1.0885, 1.0820. Resistance 1.1030,
1.1080, 1.1150
Australian Dollar / United States Dollar
GBPJPY: Just bounced off of upper trend line
from 140.00 and looks to continuing the
downtrend back to lows of 125.00 area. If
these bottoms hold we will look to go long.
Current outlook is same for all YEN pairs, play
with caution of the BOJ possible intervention.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias with support
at 125.80, 124.80. Resistance at 127.18,
128.00, 128.44, 129.30.
UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
NZDUSD: Has just created a new highest high
last week around .8790. We see for short-
term a move down to the mid .8000s before
long continues up to .9000s. We see support
at .8706 .8680 .8600 .8537 .8458.
Recommendation: Short term Bearish
opportunity, higher risk trade so tight risk is
recommended. Looking for short trigger
around .8700, keep risk at .8800 and
targeting .8600 .8537 .8458., of course a
break above .8800 negates this play.
New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar
Elite Global
Trading
July 31st –Aug 6th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
EURJPY: Has been struggling to break higher,
current outlook is Bearish with a possible
attempt to break trend line at the 110.00
area and go back down to the 108.00 area
with an attempt to touch all time low of
105.00 region. If this current bottom holds
around 110.00 we will wait and look for long
entries, currently we are skeptical of YEN
pairs, with the current levels a possibility of
the BOJ intervening we take caution on
shorts.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias with tight risk
and keeping your eyes on BOJ intervention
possibility. Support levels 110.00, 109.50
108.30 107.60.
Resistance: 111.50,112.70,113.66.
Euro / Japanese Yen
EURCAD: Has a longer term picture of a
possible recovery up towards the mid 1.500s,
we have our eyes on this, we see an possible
inverse head and shoulders pattern
unraveling on the weekly chart, if the pattern
holds on the next few months we may see this
move start to happen. For short term we see
another move down towards the recent lows
of 1.3400 area.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for a
short entry to test lows again this week.
Support at 1.3585, 1.3500, 1.3400. Look for
resistance at 1.3780, 1.3871, 1.4000
Euro / Canadian Dollar (Loonie)
EURCHF: Has reached a new all time low near
1.1300. As everyone jumps to buying the
Swiss Franc CHF, all the Swiss Franc pairs are
trading at extremes. Current picture for this
pair is way oversold, but one can't really judge
how long it will stay oversold, we are looking
for a sign for a recovery and position for a
long, which is very risky, with tight risk and
clear objective a natural correction here is
due and will be a great play. We see currently
possible consolidation prior to a larger
recovery. We see recover up to
1.1700,1.1821, and 1.1950.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, safe plays
are wait for rally and position foe shorts,
riskier play would be look for clear indication
of reverse and position for long with tight risk
and clear objective. Resistance: 1.1485,
1.1523, 1.1705, 1.1830, 1.1950. A start to
the week we may see a further extension on
short looking for a new all time low. The long
is a med term pick to keep an eye on for now
short term view look for pair to continue to
push lower.
Euro / Swiss Franc
GBPCHF: Again looking at the Swiss Franc as
counter part this pair is also reaching new
extremes with CHF gaining strength. Look to
short on rallies, perfect trend line bounce last
week and continued downtrend. GBPCHF will
be looking for new all time low this week.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for
shorts after rally. Longer term breakout
opportunity to upside we will be patiently
watching, once CHF looks to make a deeper
recovery across the board. In meantime short
plays.
UK Pound Sterling / Swiss Franc
Elite Global
Trading
July 31st –Aug 6th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
Keep a close eye on US Debt Ceiling Vote,
Tuesday & Wednesday will be important days:
Sunday:
CNY: Manufacturing PMI 9pm
Monday:
GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am
EUR: Unemployment Rate 5am
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI 8:30am
NZD: Labor Cost Index 6:45pm
AUD: Building Approvals 9:30pm
Tuesday:
AUD: RBA Rate Statement 12:30am
CHF: Retail Sales 3:15am
GBP: Construction PMI
USD: Personal Spending 8:30am
AUD: Retail Sales/Trade Balance 9:30pm
Wednesday:
GBP: Services PMI 4:30am
EUR: Retail Sales 5am
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30am
USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing 10am
NZD: Employment Change 6:45pm
Thursday:
EUR: German Factory Orders 6am
GBP: Official Bank Rate 7am
EUR: Min Bid Rate 7:45am
EUR: ECB press conference 8:30am
USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am
JPY: Overnight Call Rate
Friday:
GBP: PPI 4:30am
EUR: German Industrial Production 6am
USD: Non-farm Employment Change 8:30am
USD: Unemployment Rate 8:30am
Weeks Event Risk
Any reliance you place on
such information is therefore
strictly at your own risk.
In no event will we be liable for any
loss or damage including without
limitation, indirect or consequential
loss or damage, or any loss or
damage whatsoever arising from
loss of data or profits arising out of,
or in connection with, the use of this
newsletter.
The information contained in this
newsletter is for general information
purposes only. The information is
provided by Elite Global Trading and
while we endeavor to keep the
information up to date and correct,
we make no representations or
warranties of any kind, express or
implied, about the completeness,
accuracy, reliability, suitability or
availability with respect to the
newsletter or the information,
products, services, or related
graphics contained on the
newsletter for any purpose.
News letter Authors:
Anthony Rousseau :
James Putra
Tel: 786-759-0348
E-mail:
Elite Global Trading
Disclaimer
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Trading
** Keep a close eye on US Debt
Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday
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