FUTURE CMP PROCESSING REQUIREMENTSFUTURE CMP PROCESSING REQUIREMENTSKyle Flanigan & Michael Corbett
Linx ConsultinggJuly 10, 2013
NCCAVS CMPUG @ Semicon West
www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Linx ConsultingLinx ConsultingLinx ConsultingLinx Consulting
1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry
2. We help our clients to succeed through our:• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film processing industries:
– Semi – Packaging – Nano Technology
• Experience in the global chemicals industry
– LCD – PV – Other
• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs• Global network and capabilities• Advanced modeling capabilitiesg p
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Industry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports Offered
CMP Focused:1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 11nm Node (5th edition)2. Specialty Abrasives in CMP (4th edition)3. CMP in TSV (2nd edition)4. Wafer Polishing Technologies and Markets
5. Advanced Thin Films for FEOL and BEOL Applications
6. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets
7. Advanced Patterning Forecasting
8. Chemicals and Materials for TSV Applications
9. The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service
10. Strategic Cost Model
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
High Confidence Decision Support ServicesHigh Confidence Decision Support ServicesHigh Confidence Decision Support Services High Confidence Decision Support Services
PLANNING IDEAS TO MARKETBusiness Analysis
M&A / Due DiligenceDiversification / Expansion
Planning
IP DevelopmentValue Chain Analysis
Technology Assessment and Commercialization
SINGLE CLIENT SERVICES
SUPPPLY CHAIN OPTIMIZATION Quality System Auditing Or Pre-audit
AssessmentSupplier Quality System Benchmarking
MARKETING & SALESMarket Analysis/Monitoring
Market Forecasting and ModelingSupplier Quality System BenchmarkingQuality/Product Management System Set-up Or
AugmentationExcursion Management
Market Forecasting and ModelingCompetitive IntelligenceCustomer Perceptions
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
SHORT TERM VISIBILITYSHORT TERM VISIBILITY
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Global Real GDP Growth: By RegionGlobal Real GDP Growth: By Region8
4
6
8
0
2
% C
hang
e
-4
-2 WorldU.S.AsiaEurope
%
• US: below trend in 2013 and slips below total world growth
-62007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EuropeLatin America
• Asia growth the highest, but region growth estimate has been shaved a little since Q1 2013 forecast– Japan a little stronger on new policies– China weaker after weak report for Q1 real GDP growth
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China weaker after weak report for Q1 real GDP growth• Eurozone recession continues through 2013, Europe overall flat
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Q2 2013 Semiconductor ForecastQ2 2013 Semiconductor ForecastMSI grows roughly 50% faster than Global Real GDP in 2013, better than past two years, with MSI grows roughly 50% faster than Global Real GDP in 2013, better than past two years, with
acceleration in 2014acceleration in 2014
3,200
2,800SEMI MSIForecast
2,000
2,400
1,600
2,000
1,200
Shaded areas indicate US recessions
Annual Percent Change2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f
39.7 -3.5 -0.1 3.3 9.8 8.1
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80006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Shaded areas indicate US recessions
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Semiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area Forecast
2 700
2,800Q2 2013 Forecast & History (May)Q1 2013 Forecast (Feb)
Semiconductors (MSI)
2,500
2,600
2,700 Q1 2013 Forecast (Feb)Q4 2012 Forecast (Dec 2012)
2 200
2,300
2,400
2,000
2,100
2,200
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
Q2 2013 Forecast(May 2013)
2013Q1 2013Q2F 2013Q3F 2013Q4F 2014Q1F
MSI 2128 2380 2495 2329 2334
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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MSI 2128 2380 2495 2329 2334%Change -1.6% 11.8% 4.8% -6.7% 0.2%
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
TRENDS IN CMP SLURRIES AND PADS FOR NEW DEVICES AND WAFERS
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Major Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to Date3,000,000
Introduction of MG last and POP
Introduction of finFET CMP
2,000,000
2,500,000
10nmIntroduction of 300 mm wafers
Introduction of direst STI
1,500,000
14nm
22nm
32nm
45nm
65nmI t d ti f
Introduction of Copper CMP
mm wafers
1,000,000
90nm
130nm
180nm
250nm
Introduction of Tungsten CMP
0
500,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Growth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # Tools
450
500$2,500# New ToolsSlurries & Pads ($M)
$687 $755$786
350
400
450
$2,000
$628 $666
$687$718
$755$
200
250
300
$1,000
$1,500
$983 $1,040 $1,078 $1,132 $1,191 $1,242100
150
00
$500
$ ,000
0
50
$02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Slurries Pads # New Tools
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Slurries Pads # New Tools
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Major Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going Forward1,200,000
Introduction of III-V
Introduction of 450mm wafers
800,000
1,000,000CMP and new B/S
450mm Wafer CMP
Introduction of TSV
600,000 10nm
14nm
22nm
Introduction of finFET CMP
Introduction of Ge CMP
400,000
22nmfinFET CMP
0
200,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Defectivity RequirementsDefectivity Requirements –– Tools & ProcessTools & ProcessDefectivity Requirements Defectivity Requirements Tools & ProcessTools & Process
Control of the Tool• The trend is towards extremely low downforce in the polishing process• 1 to 2 psi is common at 14nm for oxide, nitride and poly (POP process) using ceria slurry• Silicon FinFET processing also uses low downforce CMP
• RPMs on both the platen and head have to be optimized– Higher RPM increases the removal rate but leads to more abrasion on the surface– Therefore lower RPMs are required
Control of the Pad• Pads
– Grooves should be free from debris due to groove cutting– Pads should not have sharp edges
• ConditioningConditioning– Optimum conditioning of the pad is of paramount importance. Grit size of conditioners
play an important role in defectivity control
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Defectivity RequirementsDefectivity Requirements –– ConsumablesConsumablesDefectivity Requirements Defectivity Requirements ConsumablesConsumables
Control of the Slurries• For 22nm and 14nm, the industry needs to have extremely tight control on the slurries and
pad quality
• In advanced slurries, morphology of the slurry particles will be critical– No agglomerations and angular particles– Need mostly spherical particles and to minimize the number of edges
• Trend to low abrasives or abrasive free – 0.5% or lower solids content as the slurry formulation trend is to greater chemo effect than mechanical effect
• Selectivity requirements will prove challenging to slurries as selectivity is increased tuned as a key point of the overall process control
• Galvanic corrosion needs to be controlled in-situ – this is controlled by using the correct ingredients/formulations
• Advanced slurry formulations may utilize 10 to 15 distinct ingredients
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
New Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Opportunities for Materials
R² = 0.9858405060
New Materials Required
The Quality Dilemma1 N M t i l ft f d i /
0102030
1990 2000 2010
1. New Materials are often found in / required for the most critical applications
2. New materials lead to new value chains3. New value chains lead to new sources4. New sources are usually unqualified
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1990s 2000s 2010+
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
SUPPLY CHAIN AND QUALITYSUPPLY CHAIN AND QUALITY
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
SupplySupply--Chain OptimizationChain Optimization BackgroundBackgroundSupplySupply Chain Optimization Chain Optimization BackgroundBackground
• Market trend is to push supplier quality into the supply chain
• End customers (End-user) are pushing suppliers to avoid costly firefighting by pre-emptively qualifying the supply chain
• Some companies are developing collaborative programmes which are firewalled and fid i lconfidential
• Others are demanding more information with an expectation of supplier transparency for the whole supply chain.
• Suppliers need to set up effective audit trails for all sub suppliers
• This may lie within the capability of large suppliers, but small and medium size suppliers may not have the expertise to develop acceptable supply change qualification systems
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Future Quality RequirementsFuture Quality RequirementsFuture Quality RequirementsFuture Quality Requirements
• Quality Improvement– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA
• 8 to 24 or full spectrum– Increased Sensitivity
• ppm -> ppb -> ppt• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels
– Function specifications becoming more specific• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR• Selective etch rates• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing, y, g
• Service Improvement– Beyond SPC– Ship to stock qualificationShip to stock qualification
• Sub-Supplier Monitoring– Materials component supply analysis
Materials fingerprinting
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– Materials fingerprinting
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Incumbent Supplier Base is being ChallengedIncumbent Supplier Base is being Challengedcu be t Supp e ase s be g C a e gedcu be t Supp e ase s be g C a e ged
New material formulations being introduced
Hendry ISS 2013 Hendry ISS 2013
New material formulations being introducedNew suppliers bring innovationMature formulations used for new applications
Technology cycles are being compressedNew suppliers have a steep learning curve
End-users have limited process characterization resources
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
The Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being Challenged
End-UsersN d t h t i l lifi dNeed to have materials qualified
Need to track more of the supply chainNeed to control overheads
Handling many more materials
Prime SuppliersBeing held accountable for sub-supplier systems
Sub-SuppliersOriginal contracts did not call for stringent quality processes
Do not sell directly to end-user – it is not our Do not have capabilities to track activities at sub-suppliers
Need to understand appropriate levels of spending and scale to these operations
yproblem
Do not know how to implement systems
Need to understand appropriate levels of spending d l t th ti
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and scale to these operations
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Supply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization Challenge
• Companies at all levels in the value chain need to increase the levels of resourcing required to support the semiconductor industry.levels of resourcing required to support the semiconductor industry.
– Prime & sub-suppliers have multiple Tier 1 end users in the industry– End users have unique audit or pre-audit template required– Customer pre-audits and audits require significant resources to complete– Each process increases the depth and breadth of questions– Advanced process nodes require complete re-evaluation of established C of A
• Suppliers at all levels are struggling to meet expectations– New suppliers to the industry do not have the resources available
Older products have may have significant supply gaps but these will not be– Older products have may have significant supply gaps but these will not be identified or closed to meet ramp cycles
– Suppliers at all levels need to make new investments in quality systems and need guidance from a strategic materials supply chain organization.
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What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?
IC Manufacturers are making changes• Focusing on formulation sub-suppliers• Are evaluating strategic supplier readiness• Imposed significant fines for quality manual violations• Actively eliminating under performing suppliers
Suppliers need assistance to overcome barriers:• Executive Sponsorship
– Assignment of talent and resources for change– Commitment to attainment of quality goals
• Education– Understanding WHAT and WHY and HOW MUCH
• Involvement– All aspects of sales and operations are stakeholders for quality metrics
• Price
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– End users need to pay for the appropriate level of testing and production capabilities
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Impact of ExcursionsImpact of Excursions
Detection location
CIMPACT to: Raws Qualified Product On Wafer Packed Chips Consumer
Product
Business
Operating capitalOperating capital
Good Will
Technical
ID Root Cause
Recurrence of Issue
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Why Linx?Why Linx?Why Linx?Why Linx?The advanced materials and tooling market is again evolving. New platform development iscostly and risky. End-users are identifying new strategic partners and suppliers who they canrely on to help meet their business goals. Supply chain risk has been identified as a significantvulnerability In response to this FABs are rethinking strategic partnerships to focus on suppliersvulnerability. In response to this, FABs are rethinking strategic partnerships to focus on supplierswho have consistently met project deliverables and not slipped on manufacturing rampschedules. We can help throughout this evolution.
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Advanced Materials Advanced Materials L i /Ch i iL i /Ch i iLearning/CharacterizationLearning/Characterization
• Well controlled manufacturing at the prime supplier leads to SupplierS b S b p ppproduct qualification
• Changed process at the sub-supplier changes end product
Sourcing Receiving Distillation
SupplierSubSupplier
SubSupplier
performance
• Process audits identify areas of interest to be investigated
Reaction Reaction QC
during an excursionPurification Formulation ShippingPurification
• Sub-supplier process mapping is now expected during product development
Packaging
Shipping
Purification
Application Test
• CofA are not sufficient for adv. materials
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Shipping Application TestQC • GOAL: Eliminate Variation
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
SummarySummarySummarySummary
• Continued strong organic industry growth for balance of 300mm ramp out
• Many new CMP applications including:– 450mm wafers– TSV– FEOL – Ge and III-V– New barrier and seed
• Multiple new device types – MRAM and RRAM on the horizon to replace NAND and DRAM mean for new opportunities
• Supply Chain Management is key differentiator. The Impact of excursions grows with time– Quality and supply chain sources of deviation most be better understood– Companies with strong supply chain management are the most likely to expand at or p g pp y g y p
better than the industry growth rate.
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON